TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Regional Modeling Center Project Update
May 22, 2007
Gail Tonnesen, University of California, Riverside
Ralph Morris, ENVIRON Corporation Int., Novato, CA
Zac Adelman, University of North Carolina
WRAP Technical Analysis Forum Meeting, Boise, Idaho
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Topics
• Review of RMC 2007 Work plan
• Progress on PRP 2018 Case
• Data Archiving Plan
• BART Modeling Status
• Possible Future Work
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
2006 Tasks Deferred• Several emissions and visibility modeling tasks from
2006 were deferred, funds carried over:– emissions processing: $28,500 remaining– visibility modeling: $43,000 remaining– Alaska BART Modeling: $5,000 remaining
• Cost overruns on several tasks including: – BART CALPUFF Modeling (Substantial)– Fire emissions sensitivity studies– Tech Support and Data Transfer– Project administration, conference calls, travel
• Carry over from 2006 was $43,424.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
2007 Work Plan
• Emissions processing with SMOKE:– 2018 Preliminary Reasonable Progress (PRP):
$14,672 for emisions.– Two emissions sensitivity cases: approx $6,400 each
(cost will depend on type of sensitivity)
• Visibility modeling using CMAQ:– budget of $6,000 per run, includes techinal memo
with analysis of results: $18,000.
• BART modeling: $8,000 is mostly spent.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
2007 Work Plan (continued)
• Data transfer/support: $12,2410
• Data archiving: $13,141
• Computer & website and hard disks: $9,100
• Project administration, conf calls, travel: $49,000
• Total proposed budget for 2007: $132,630
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
New RMC Contract in 2007• Closed out old RMC contract as of 3/31/07
– 6 year, $3.6 million contract: UCR, ENVIRON, UNC– simplifies accounting and project management.
• Processing new contract, backdated to April 1.– Significantly reduced budget and scope of work.– UC aggreed to waive overhead on sub-contracts.– Expect to receive contract from WGA this week.– After processing contract, UCR will issue sub-contracts
to ENVIRON and UCR (in mid June?)
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Preliminary Reasonable Progress 2018
• Emissions processing in progress:– version PRP18a– includes updates in point, area, selected mobile
categories, and oil & gas.– model ready emissions should be complete by end
of May.– QA of PRP18a emissions in early June.
• CMAQ modeling to be completed in mid June
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a Emissions• Built off simulation Base2018b• Over the past 3-4 months the RMC collected updated emissions data for
2018 and made corrections to existing data• Changes in several sectors to correct mistakes and include new inventories:
• WRAP, MRPO, VISTAS, MANE- VU on-road mobile
• All US non-road mobile
• CENRAP/MRPO ammonia
• All US stationary area
• All US road dust
• All US Fugitive dust
• Gulf of Mexico offshore area
• Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic commercial shipping
• WRAP oil and gas
• CENRAP, VISTAS point fires
• All US stationary point
• All Canadian and Mexican sources
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsWRAP On-road mobile corrections
• WRAP on-road mobile inventories contain pre-speciated PM (i.e. SO4, EC, OC, PMC) as both pollutant totals and as pollutants by mobile emissions process (i.e. PEC from exhaust, POA from evaporative, etc.)
• Including both the total PM and process-based values led to errors in these emissions for WRAP on-road mobile sources.
WRAP Total On-road Mobile PM EmissionsBase2018 and PRP2018
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
PMC PEC POA PNO3 PSO4 PMFINE
ton
s/yr
Base18a
PRP18a
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsWRAP On-road mobile corrections
Differences between annual PRP18a and Base2018b WRAP on-road mobile emissions
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsWRAP On-road mobile corrections
State
PMC
PEC
POA
PSO4 PMFINE
AZ 0% -40% -17% 0% -100%
CA 0% -49% -45% 0% -100%
CO 0% -40% -18% 0% -100%
ID 0% -40% -19% 0% -100%
MT 0% -41% -18% 0% -100%
NV 0% -37% -21% 0% -100%
NM 0% -40% -17% 0% -100%
ND 0% -40% -18% 0% -100%
OR 0% -41% -19% 0% -100%
SD 0% -40% -17% 0% -100%
UT 0% -39% -18% 0% -100%
WA 0% -40% -18% 0% -100%
WY 0% -41% -16% 0% -100%
On-road mobile annual PM2.5 % differences Base2018b vs. PRP18a
Base2018b PM2.5 Annual Emissions by Source
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a Emissionsnon-WRAP On-road mobile corrections
• VISTAS, MANE-VU, and MRPO inventory updates
• Canada 2020 inventory and Mexico Phase III 1999 inventory
Differences between annual PRP18a and Base2018b non-WRAP on-road mobile emissions
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsNon-road mobile changes
• Updates to all inventories outside of the WRAP region
Differences between annual PRP18a and Base2018b non-road mobile emissions
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsRoad dust changes and corrections
• During the application of revised PM10/PM2.5 splits, erroneously dropped the PM2.5 fields for road dust
• Resulted in assigning all dust to coarse PM and missing the PMFINE component of the dust emissions
WRAP Total Road Dust PM Emissions Base2018 and PRP2018
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
PMC PEC POA PNO3 PSO4 PMFINE
tons
/yr
Base18aPRP18a
Annual Road Dust PM Emissions by WRAP StateBase2018b and PRP18a
0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000
AZCACOID
MTNVNMNDORSDUTW
WY
tons/yr
PMC b18bPMC prp18aPMFINE b18bPMFINE prp18a
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsRoad dust changes and corrections
Base 2018b with road dust error
PM2.5 Annual Emissions by Source
Base 2018b with corrected road dust
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsRoad dust changes and corrections
• Road dust removed from the Phase III Mexican inventories
• New 2020 Canadian inventories
Differences between annual PRP18a and Base2018b road dust emissions
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsOffshore Commercial Shipping
• Adding shipping lane emissions in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic
Annual PRP18a commercial shipping emissions
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsGulf of Mexico offshore area sources
• Removed shipping lane emissions to avoid double counting with the gridded commercial shipping inventory
Differences between annual PRP18a and Base2018b Gulf of Mexico offshore area emissions
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a EmissionsCanada and Mexico Updates
• Moved from 2000 to 2020 Canadian inventories for all emissions source categories in PRP18a
• Phase III Mexico inventory for stationary area, nonroad, onroad, and point sources– Updates to the emissions in the six
Northern Mexican states
– Includes all of Mexico
• Updates to the spatial allocation information for allocating the Mexican emissions to modeling grids
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Characteristics of the MNEI, 1999
• Coverage– States (32)– Municipal (2,443)
• Sources (#SCC’s)– Point (28)– Area (46)– On road mobile (7)– Nonroad (2)– Natural sources (2)
• Pollutants– CO, NOx, SOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC
and NH3
• 20 spatial surrogates– Improvement over the 5 surrogates
previously used
Emissions by type of anthropogenic source MNEI-1999
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
NOX
SOX
COV
CO
PM10
Po
llu
tan
t
Porcentaje de contribuciónPoint sources Area sources
Onroad sources Nonroad sources
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
PRP18a Emissions• Currently working on modeling the PRP2018 WRAP point, area,
and oil & gas inventories received last week.
• The fugitive and road dust inventories require the application of revised PM10/PM2.5 splits and transport factors before these data can be modeled.
• As these emissions are modeled through SMOKE, QA/QC plots will be posted on the RMC website.
• QC of the emissions focuses on picking out expected trends in the results based on known changes and looking for unexpected trends that may reveal errors in the data/processing.
• Expect to merge all sources to create the final PRP18a CMAQ-ready emissions by the week of May 28.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Data Archiving Plan
• Complete copy of all key input data and scripts will be stored at two sites.
• Data archive planning document describes data to be archive.
• Hard disks will be use to store and distribute data – some data available now, other disks will be prepared when current modeling is complete.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
WRAP RMC BART Modeling
• 7 WRAP States Requested RMC BART CALPUFF Modeling Assistance– AK, AZ, MT, NM, NV, SD and UT
• Set up Webpage where Data and Information can be obtained:– www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/bart.shtml
• WRAP RMC Modeling Protocol– Numerous revisions starting February 2006– Final version dated August 15, 2006– www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/bart/
WRAP_RMC_BART_Protocol_Aug15_2006.pdf
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
WRAP BART CALPUFF Modeling Status – May 2007
• All inputs posted – Major CALPUFF rerun in April.
• AZ: 6 revisions to date,14 sources -- Just received new emissions for one source.
• MT: 2 revisions, provided to EPA Region 8.
• NM: 5 revisions, 11 sources – completed/posted.
• NV: 7 revisions, 6 sources – completed and posted.
• SD: 4 revisions, 2 sources – currently EPA Reg 7 running one source using CAMx due to long distances.
• UT: 6 revisions, 2 sources – pre- and post-control runs done, not posted.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
MM5 Windowed Processing Domains
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
-1900 -1800 -1700 -1600 -1500 -1400 -1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -800-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
agti
anad
arch
band
blca
bosq
brca
cany
care
chir
cuca
dola
gali
g ila
grca
jom u
jotr
kaiskica
laga
m abe
m aza
m eve
m oba
peco
pefo
pim o
saga
sago
sagu
saja
sape
sequ
sian
supe
syca
weel
wem i
whm o
yose
zion
-1300 -1200 -1100 -1000 -900 -800 -700 -600-900
-800
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
arch
band
blca
bosq
brca
canycare
cave
chir
gali
g ila
grca
grsa
gum o
laga
m abe
m aza
m eve
m oba
peco
pefo
pim o
sacr
sagu
sape
sian
supe
syca
w eel
w em i
w hm o
w hpe
-1600 -1400 -1200 -1000 -800
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Hunter 1 & 2
Huntington 3 & 4arch
brca
brid
canycare
crmo
eane
fitz
fito
grca
grte
jarb
laga
mabe
maza
meve
mozi
noab
pefopimo
redr
sape
sawt
syca
tetowash
weel
wemi
yell
zion
blca
Example CALMET/CALPUFF Modeling Domains: Arizona,
New Mexico and Utah showing sources (red dots) and Class I
area receptors (green)
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
April 2007 Modeling Revision
• Error found in CALPUFF reading emission inputs (limited to 132 characters – card reader), potential incorrect primary PM emission inputs
• Took opportunity to update two other aspects of CALMET/CALPUFF modeling– Increase maximum mixing height from EPA-default 3,000 m
AGL to 4,500 m AGL as in Protocol
– Post-processing CALPUFF output with POSTUTIL prior to calculating visibility impacts using CALPOST
• Corrects potential “double counting” of background ammonia
• Note that CALPUFF assumption of spatially and temporally invariant constant background highly suspect
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
New Mexico Example
• 11 potential BART-eligible sources
• Preliminary modeling indicated 10 did not contribute significantly to visibility impairment (change in dv < 0.5 dv)
• One source (PNM San Juan w/ 36,000 TPY SO2 and 39,000 TPY NOx) did contribute significantly
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Preliminary (pre-April revision) NM SRC02 PNM SJ 6 highest visibility impacts at Class I areas within
300 km of source.
Max 3-Yr Avg 98th percentile del-dv = 8 dv
Revised Max 3-Yr Avg 98th del-dv = 5 dv
Differences mainly due to use of POSTUTIL; other sources exhibit very small changes
NM SRC02 Unit # 350450902, PNM SJ #1-4: SO2 = 35,735 TPY; NOx = 38,763 TPY; PM = 3,884 TPY Annual Average Natural Conditions Class I Area with at least 1 receptor within 300 km of source
Minimum Distance 98th Percentile for Each Year 98th
Class I Area (km) 2001 2002 2003 3 year AVG
Mesa Verde NP 40 7.527 9.458 7.67 8.218 Weminuche Wilderness 98 2.449 3.248 2.589 2.762 San Pedro Parks Wilderness 155 3.393 4.71 3.974 4.026 La Garita Wilderness 169 1.556 1.876 1.866 1.766 Canyonlands NP 170 8.227 4.795 5.125 6.049 Black Canyon Gunnison NM 203 2.336 2.519 2.709 2.521 Bandelier NM 210 2.259 3.64 3.313 3.071 Petrified Forest NP 213 1.549 1.259 1.001 1.27 West Elk Wilderness 216 1.999 2.208 2.228 2.145 Arches NP 222 5.227 4.42 4.685 4.777 Capitol Reef NP 232 4.333 1.975 2.515 2.941 Pecos Wilderness 248 2.074 2.717 2.682 2.491 Wheeler Peak Wilderness 258 1.959 1.719 1.812 1.83 Great Sand Dunes NM 269 1.435 1.56 1.67 1.555 Maroon Bells-Snowmass WA 271 1.145 1.257 1.024 1.142 Grand Canyon NP 285 2.149 1.586 1.126 1.62
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
WRAP RMC BART Webpage
• Modeling Protocol
• CALMM5 Input Data.
• CALMET Inputs.
• CALPUFF Inputs.
• CALPOST Inputs.
• Summary Results for AK, NM and NV.
• Results for other states forthcoming.
• CALMET/CALPUFF downloaded by several contractors:– BART and PSD/NSR
modeling.
– Numerous requests for help in running CALPUFF.
– WRAP RMC BART resources more than expended.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Next Steps: WRAP BART CALPUFF
• Rerun final AZ sources with revised SO2 emissions for SRC02.
• MT being reviewed by EPA Region 8 (preliminary results posted).
• SD eastern BART source being evaluated by CAMx due to long source-receptor distances (waiting for results from EPA Region 7).
• AK, MT, NM and NV results posted.
• Waiting for permission from other states to post results.
• All WRAP RMC CALPUFF BART modeling completed in May 2007.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
EPA Final Modeling Guidance
• Summarized in PPT file from April 17, 2007.• Includes guidance on NAAQS for:
– 8 hour average ozone– Annual and 24 hour average PM2.5– Regional haze– unmonitored area and local area/hot spot guidance.
• Supplemental analyses/weight of evidence.• Mid course review and future modeling.• Required documentation.
TAF Meeting, Boise, ID, May 2007
Possible Future Work
• RMC team can readily build on existing modeling activities to address other topics:– distribution and fate of mercury.– acid and nitrogen deposition.– 8 hour average ozone, and 24 hr and annual PM2.5.– urban scale modeling with <= 12 km resolution.– regional & global background contributions to
ozone and PM2.5 non-attainment in urban areas.– visibility modeling for other years, e.g., 2005, 2008.
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