Automotive Electronics and Electrical Systems Forum 2008
Wednesday 7th May 2008
Supply Chain and Technology Trends of Automotive Electronic/Electrical Markets
Antonio Ferreira Senior Manager, European Supply Chain and Technology Forecasts
© Daimler
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Introduction
Trends
Technologies
Conclusion
Presentation
Outline
© Volvo
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Established in 1991Headquarters in DetroitPrivately Held120 Employees Worldwide11 Global Offices4 European Offices100% Automotive
CSM Overview
CSM Introduction
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Global Coverage
CSM Introduction
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
SCT Introduction
16 Vehicle Systems Globally
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
SCT Introduction
64 Scheduled Components/Global Markets
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Introduction
Trends
Technologies
Conclusion
Presentation
Outline
© Volvo
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
1. Fuel Economy2. Low-Cost Vehicles3. BRIC Markets4. Low-Cost Sourcing5. Active & Passive Safety6. Infotainment7. Raw Materials Demand/Cost8. Recyclability9. X-by-Wire10. Car Networking Platforms11. Weight Savings12. Content Increase13. Part Commonization14. Interior & Exterior Lighting15. Nano Technologies
Etc...
Top Trends
Trends
2008 2013 2018
< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Global Light Vehicle Sales
6.24.4
5.67.9
5.3
2.0
16.918.6
3.6
3.9
1.6
1.2
1.0
2.5
0
5
10
15
20
25N America
W Europe
Japan/Korea
S America
C/E Europe
Greater China
South Asia
ME/Africa
Millions
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
2008-14 Growth
2008
2008-14 CAGR% (R-axis)
0%
100%
76% Developing Markets
S Asia 25%
Greater China
27%
C/E Europe 11%
N America 17%
S America 8%
W Europe 7%
Contribution To Growth
2008 - 2014Middle
East/Africa 3%
Trends
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
0
10
20
30
40
50
Millions N America
W Europe
Japan/Korea
0
10
20
30
40
501997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Millions S Asia
Greater China
C/E Europe
S America
M East/Africa
43.345.4 45.0
48.3
9.010.5
25.7
39.1
Developed Market 2008-2014 Growth Rate 1.2%
5256
71
87
Global Light Vehicle Production
Developing Market 2008-2014 Growth Rate 6.2%
Global 2008-2014 Growth Rate 3.6%
Trends
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Global Low-Cost Light Vehicle Production
Trends
2014
20041997
2008
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Output in Millions
South
Asia
South
America
Japan Korea
Mid-East/Africa
Greater China
Europe
4.2M
0.4M
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
PEST Factors
Constant Improvement
Content & Complexity Increase
Network Platforms
Energy & Power
Evolution NOT Revolution
Present Electronic Trends
Trends
© Dow
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Introduction
Trends
Technologies
Conclusion
Presentation
Outline
© Volvo
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Brake & Chassis:• Brake Assembly• Brake Controls• Steering Gear • Damper
Driver Support:• Keyless/Passive Entry• Tire Pressure Monitoring• Adaptive Cruise Control
Electrical:• Junction Box• Wire Harness• Engine ECU
Lighting:• Forward Lighting
Infotainment• Navigation System
Engine:• Hybrid Systems
Safety:• Airbag Module
• Occupant Classification
Technologies
Systems & Components
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Brake Assembly
Technologies – Brake & Chassis
48% 47% 45% 42%36% 32% 29%
36%29% 30% 31%
34%33%
33%
14%21% 20% 20% 22%
19%16%
0% 0% 2% 4% 5%13%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
TBD
Brembo
Aisin
Bosch
CAS
TRW
EU Electric Parking Brake Suppliers6.9M 10.8M3.9M+
TRW
48%
CAS
37%
Bosch
14%
Aisin
1%
TRW
CAS
Bosch
Aisin
2008
EU Electric Parking Brake Suppliers
Cable vs Motor
Fault Tolerance/ReliabilityBack-up systems
True vs False Brake-by-Wire
Braking, Steering and Suspension
JVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions
< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Braking-by-Wire
2013 2018
Evolution
6.9M2008
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Bosch
35%
CAS
25%
ADVICS
12%
TRW
7%
Mando
7%
Others
14%Bosch
CAS
ADVICS
TRW
Mando
Others
Brake Controls
Technologies - Brake & Chassis
52% 51% 47% 44% 41% 40% 39%
42% 44% 48% 52% 55% 57% 58%
6% 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Traction Control
Stability Control
ABS
54M 69MGlobal Brake Control Types
Global Brake Control Suppliers
2008
15M+ Premium vs Commodity
System Generations
Alternative Propulsion – Vacuum?
Active Braking/Safety
Fault Tolerance/Reliability
Low Cost Sensor/Actuator Integration
Essential for X-by-Wire
< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Shared Chassis/Braking/Safety Platforms
2013 2018
* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
Evolution
54M2008
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
JTEKT
18%
TRW
12%
Delphi
10%
Mando
9%ZF Group
8%
Others
43%
JTEKT
TRW
Delphi
Mando
ZF Group
Others
49.3% 48.0% 45.6% 43.5% 43.0% 43.1% 42.7%
32.4% 34.6% 38.2% 41.4% 42.7% 43.0% 43.5%
13.3% 12.9% 12.1% 11.4% 10.8% 10.8% 10.9%5.0% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.1% 3.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manual
EHPS
EPS
Hydraulic
Steering Gears
Technologies - Brake & Chassis
Global Steering Gear Types
Global EPS/EHPS Steering Gear Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Steer-by-Wire
2013 2018
Evolution
33M * Global: EU, NA, JK, CH2008
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Semi-Mature Technology
Limitations on Motor & Sensor Tech
Fuel EconomyReduction of Parasitic Losses Trend
Automated ParkingBraking, Steering and Suspension
JVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions
Not X-by-Wire
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Dampers
Technologies - Brake & Chassis
Global Active Suspension Market
Global Damper Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Active Suspension
2013 2018
Evolution
* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH2008
7.669.92
12.3614.10 13.89 14.22
15.663.83
4.33
4.38
4.43 4.51 4.594.55
1.75
1.67
1.63
1.65 1.87 2.112.11
0.56
0.77
1.19
1.37 1.45 1.521.56
0
5
10
15
20
25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions CH
NA
J/K
EU
13.8M
23.9M
10.1M+6%
9%
KYB
21%
ZF Group
20%
Tenneco
14%
ThyssenK
rupp
5%
Showa
5%
Others
35%
KYB
ZF Group
Tenneco
ThyssenKrupp
Showa
Others
240M
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Optional Market
Price Limits Market Potential50% Price Reduction
Premium vs Commodity
Braking, Steering and SuspensionJVs, Partnerships and Acquisitions
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Keyless/Passive Entry
Technologies - Driver Support
Global Keyless/Passive Entry Type
Global Keyless/Passive Control Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Keyless/Passive Entry
2013 2018
* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
Evolution
52M2008
44.4 45.5 46.9 48.2 49.2 48.5 48.2
7.1 8.5 9.711.3 12.6 14.2 15.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Passive Entry
Passive Entry/Go
Conventional
51.7M
64M12.3M+87%
90%
Omron
14%
CAS
13%
Valeo
10%
Hella
8%Denso
7%
Others
48%
Omron
CAS
Valeo
Hella
Denso
Others- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Mature Technology
Over-Complexed FunctionalityPlatform Sharing
Luxury Driven
Personalization Upon EntryAll-in-One Key with Functions & Info
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Schrader
42%
CAS
24%
Pacific
Industrial
12%
EnTire
9%
BorgWarner
7% Others
6%
Schrader
CAS
Pacific Industrial
EnTire
BorgWarner
Others
15.7 16.4 17.118.5 19.4 19.7 19.8
0.80.7 0.6
0.60.6 0.8 1.0
0
5
10
15
20
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Indirect
Direct
Tire Pressure Monitoring
Technologies - Driver Support
Global TPMS Type (no J/K)
Global TPMS Suppliers (no J/K)
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Tire Pressure Monitoring
2013 2018
* Global: EU, NA, CH
Evolution
16.4M2008
16.4M
20.9M4.5M+
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Direct vs Indirect (or Hybrid)
Standard for Vehicles Sold in NA
Initially Safety-Driven TechnologyNow also Fuel Economy (Euro V)
Extra Production Ready & Available
Driver Information (Visual & Audio)
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
0
1
1
2
2
3
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Adaptive
Cruise
Control
Adaptive Cruise Control
Technologies - Driver Support
Global Adaptive Cruise Control Market
Global Adaptive Cruise Control Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Smart Car
2013 2018
* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
Evolution
0.9M2008
0.9M
2.2M
1.3M+
1.5%
3%
CAS
18%
Denso
16%
Bosch
12%Honda
elesys
10%Hitachi
4%
Others
40%
CAS
Denso
Bosch
Honda elesys
Hitachi
Others- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Premium Technology
Awareness = Forward vs SideAdvanced Detection Systems
Integration with other SystemsLighting, Powertrain, Brake, Chassis...
Smart Car
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
CAS
15.52%
Yazaki
14.88%
Delphi
14.12%Hella
12.55%
Sumitomo
Electric
12.15%
Others
30.79%
CAS
Yazaki
Delphi
Hella
Sumitomo Electric
Others
19.52 20.10 20.99 22.61 24.20 25.03 25.34
15.61 15.63 15.4215.57
15.10 14.87 15.39
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions Conventional
Smart
Junction Boxes
Technologies - Electrical
Junction Box Market (NA, EU)
Junction Box Suppliers (NA, EU)
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Smart Junction Boxes
2013 2018
Evolution
35.1M2008
56%
68%
44%
32%
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Smart Junction Boxes
Merges Controls & FunctionsReduction of Controllers and Wiring
Cost, Size, & Weight Savings
Extra Wiring vs Local Control Units
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Yazaki
22%
Delphi
19%
Sumitom
o
14%
Lear
5%
Valeo
5%
Others
35%
Yazaki
Delphi
Sumitomo
Lear
Valeo
Others
Wire Harness
Technologies - Electrical
Global Wire Harness Market Value
Global Wire Harness Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Wire Harness
2013 2018
Evolution
194M2008
$7.72 $8.12 $8.47 $8.82 $9.05 $9.16 $9.35
$6.68 $7.01 $7.30 $7.60 $7.81 $7.91 $8.07
$4.78$5.01
$5.21$5.43 $5.58 $5.66 $5.76
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Billions
Body
Engine
IP
$19.2B
$23.2B
$4B+
* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH, S AM, S AS
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Manufacturing not AutomatedLabour Intensive/Low-Cost Production
Electrical Distribution Systems (EDS)
Content IncreaseExtra Wiring vs Local Control Units
Wireless & Fiber OpticsStandards & Security
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
56.68 59.16 61.41 64.24 66.31 67.47 68.62
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
ECUs
Engine ECU
Technologies - Electrical
Global Engine ECU Market
Global Engine ECU Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
ECUs
2013 2018
Evolution
56.7M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
Bosch
18%
Denso
15%
Delphi
11%CAS
10%
Hitachi
6%
Others
40%
Bosch
Denso
Delphi
CAS
Hitachi
Others- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
50+ ECUs Common
20% Transmission ECUs now Separate
High Requirements vs Cost Effective
Improved Testing & Simulation
Extra Wiring vs Local Control Units
Agreement of StandardsOpen standard for Hardware/Software
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Koito
14%
Automotive
Lighting
12%
Valeo
12%
Hella
11%
Stanley
11%
Others
40%
Koito
Automotive Lighting
Valeo
Hella
Stanley
Others
Forward Lighting
Technologies - Lighting
Forward Lighting Adaptive Type
Global Forward Lighting Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Forward Lighting
2013 2018
Evolution
60M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
55.5 57.7 59.4 60.4 59.5 58.0 57.2
4.34.6 5.1 7.2 9.9 12.3 14.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Adaptive
Non-Adaptive
7%
20%
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
Adaptive to Grow and Develop
Automatic Daytime Lamps (DRL)
Greater adoption of Xenon & LEDStyling
Legislations Impact Technologies
Night VisionIntegration with other Systems
GPS
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Aisin AW
16%
Denso
13%
Harman/B
ecker
10%
CAS
9%Blaupunkt
7%
Others
45%
Aisin AW
Denso
Harman/Becker
CAS
Blaupunkt
Others
1.08 1.06 1.00 0.97 1.02 1.03 1.09
3.21 3.30 3.44 3.66 3.81 3.87 4.10
2.252.94
3.574.23
4.68 4.965.34
0.090.11
0.15
0.240.42
0.580.75
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions SD Card
HDD
DVD
CD5.986.82
7.618.44 8.95 9.17 9.71
0.640.59
0.55
0.650.98
1.271.57
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
TBT
FCM
Navigation
Technologies - Infotainment
Global OE Navigation Display Type
Global OE Navigation Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Telematics
2013 2018
Evolution
6.6M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
Global OE Navigation Memory Type
11%
16%
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Toyota
35%
Bosch
30%
Alcoa
17%
Honda
6%
Aisin
6%
Others
6%
Toyota
Bosch
Alcoa
Honda
Aisin
Others
Hybrids
Technologies - Engine
Global Hybrids Type
Global Hybrid System Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Alternative Propulsion Systems
2013 2018
Evolution
0.8M2008
0.02 0.06 0.23 0.35 0.37 0.38 0.400.59 0.721.42
1.73 2.01 2.09 2.221.22
1.60
2.66
3.31
3.884.33
4.55
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
Micro
Mild
Full0.8M
7.2M
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
120g CO2 per km in 2012 Green TrendLimited Market & Benefits
Alternative PropulsionAlternative Fuels Reductions & EfficienciesCost Effectiveness
Powertrain & Driveline42V+
Effect on other Systems
* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Autoliv
37%
TRW
19%
Takata
14%
Toyoda
Gosei
12%
Delphi
3%
Others
15%
Autoliv
TRW
Takata
Toyoda Gosei
Delphi
Others
Airbag Module
Technologies - Safety
Global Airbag Module Positions
Global Airbag Module Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Passive Safety
2013 2018
Evolution
236M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK, CH
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
60.8 68.4 74.5 81.8 87.2 90.0 91.8
60.067.6 73.7
79.3 83.4 85.3 88.055.4
57.860.1
63.0 65.0 66.0 67.053.2
55.958.3
61.263.4 64.5 65.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions Passenger
Driver
Side
Seat
229M
312M83M+
Passive Safety is a Mature MarketContent Increase is now LimitedSystem Improvement
NA Legislation DrivenEU/JK Consumer Driven
Well Marketed Consumer TrendCommodity
Pedestrian Safety
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Aisin
27%
Delphi
24%TRW
9%
Elesys
6%
Bosch
6%
Others
28%Aisin
Delphi
TRW
Elesys
Bosch
Others
Occupant Classification
Technologies - Safety
Global Occupant Classification Types
Global Occupant Classification System Suppliers
2008< 5 Years > < 5 Years >
Passive Safety
2013 2018
Evolution
22M2008* Global: EU, NA, JK
- Maturity
- Growth
- Introduc tion
- Development
12.56 12.07 12.13 12.97 14.27 14.96 16.53
7.46 6.78 6.43 5.80 5.20 5.536.020.57 1.85 2.00 2.21 2.47
2.802.82
0.52 0.48 0.55 0.63 0.700.75
0.80
0.23 0.23 0.310.32
0.400.59
0.80
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Millions
PODS
Capacitive
Pattern
LRD
Matt
Weight
29M
22M
7M+
NA Mandatory
Low Risk Deployment (cheaper)
Added Content Value to Passive
Future of OCS?
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Introduction
Trends
Technologies
Conclusion
Presentation
Outline
© Volvo
2008 © CSM Worldwidewww.csmauto.com
Automotive industry has mechanical mindset
Electronics dominated by suppliers in other industries
Dedicated low-cost vehicle platforms rewrite the rule book
Standards defined ASAP to continue content growth curve
Hard to impact established technologies/markets, but not impossible
Industry obstacles/fears/regulations create opportunities for outsiders
Cost effective reliable safety systems will be a challenge
Automotive suppliers have to embrace trends and fears
Influence consumers/markets with more than just technology
Maturity ends premium lifecycle and starts commodity lifecycle
Highlights
Conclusion
Top Related