TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Study Project TRANS-CSP
Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection for Concentrating Solar Power (WP02 Scenario)
Project for the Research & Development Programme of the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU)
IFEED
NREA
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
WP02 Scenario
Scope:
Develop a sustainable scenario for power generation in Europe taking into consideration the transfer of solar electricity from MENA
Result:
A well balanced mix of renewables with fossil fuel backup can provide low cost, secure and compatible electricity for Europe. Solar electricity imports can significantly reduce the electricity cost.
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
South-Eastern Europe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita G
DP
[100
0 €
/cap
/y]
Greece
Turkey
Bosnia-HerzegowinaBulgaria
Croatia
Macedonia
Romania
Serbia &MontenegroSlowenia
Western Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita G
DP
[100
0 €
/cap
/y]
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Eastern Europe
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita G
DP
[100
0 €/
cap/
y]
CzechRepublic
Hungary
Poland
SlowacRepublic
Scandinavia
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita G
DP
[100
0 €/
cap/
y] Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Growth of Economy
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Population
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(m
illio
n)
SloweniaSerbia & MontenegroGreeceTurkeyCroatiaMacedoniaBulgariaBosnia-HerzegowinaRomaniaSlowac RepublicPolandHungaryCzech RepublicSwedenNorwayDenmarkIcelandFinlandSwitzerlandUnited KingdomNetherlandsLuxembourgIrelandGermanyFranceBelgiumAustriaItalySpainPortugal
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Driving Force for Electricity Demand: Electricity Intensity
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1 10 100
1960
1980
2000
20202040
Ele
ctric
ity/C
apita
[kW
h/ca
p]
GDP/Capita [1000 US$ 1996 PPP]
Year
Fitting Empirical Data of 25 (150) Countries
y = a x b
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Scandinavia
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita P
ower
Dem
and
[kW
h/ca
p/y]
Denmark
Finland
Iceland
Norway
Sweden
Eastern Europe
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita P
ower
Dem
and
[kW
h/ca
p/y]
CzechRepublic
Hungary
Poland
SlowacRepublic
Western Europe
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita P
ower
Dem
and
[kW
h/ca
p/y] Portugal
Spain
Italy
Austria
Belgium
France
Germany
Ireland
Netherlands
Switzerland
United Kingdom
South-Eastern Europe
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Per
Cap
ita P
ower
Dem
and
[kW
h/ca
p/y] Greece
Turkey
Bosnia-HerzegowinaBulgaria
Croatia
Macedonia
Romania
Serbia &MontenegroSlowenia
Development of the Per Capita Electricity Demand
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Gross Electricity Demand in the Analysed Countries
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Gro
ss E
lect
ricity
Con
sum
ptio
n T
Wh/
y
SwitzerlandNorwayIcelandBosnia-HerzegowinaSerbia & MontenegroRomaniaMacedoniaBulgariaTurkeySwedenCroatiaFinlandGreeceHungarySloweniaSlowac RepublicCzech RepublicPolandItalyIrelandUnited KingdomDenmarkGermanyNetherlandsLuxembourgBelgiumAustriaFrancePortugalSpain
Scenario TRANS-CSPHistorical Data
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Plenty Renewable Energy Resources in EUMENA
Biomass (1)
Wind Energy (30)
Geothermal Energy (1)
Hydropower (30)
Solar Energy (250)
In brackets: (Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)
Every 10 km² in MENA yield 15 million barrels of fuel oil per year in form of solar energy
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Potentials Demand 2000 Demand 2050
Ele
ctr
icit
y in
TW
h/y
Solar
Geothermal
Hydro
Wind
Biomass
Wave/Tide
Desalination
MENA
Europe
Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials vs. Demand in EUMENA
> 630 000
Sustainable Mix ?
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Parameters for Electricity Cost Calculation in the Scenario
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Spe
cific
Inve
stm
ent [
$/kW
]
PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear
Specific Investment of Power Technologies (Example Spain)
Nuclear power: increasing cost of waste disposal and security
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
CO2 Capture and Sequestration (CCS) included in fossil fueled generation costs after 2020CSP in solar only operation
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctric
ity C
ost [
c/kW
h]
PhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclearImport Solar
Electricity Cost of Power Technologies (Example Spain)
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP: Electricity Generation in Europe
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Ele
ctric
ity [T
Wh/
y]
Import SolarImport OtherPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclear
5 resources,mostly imported and limited
10 resources,mostly domestic and unlimited
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP: Import Dependency vs. Current Trend
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Sh
are
of
To
tal
Ele
ctri
city Import Dependency
in the TRANS-CSPScenario
Current Trend ofImport Dependency
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP: Installed Capacity in Europe
At any time, peak power demand is covered with an extra 25 % reserve of firm power capacity
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
Pow
er C
apa
city
[GW
]
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400Import SolarImport OtherPhotovoltaicsWindGeothermalHydropowerBiomassWave / TidalCSP PlantsOil GasCoalNuclearPeak Load
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSP delivers Power on Demand:Peaking vs. Fluctuating Capacity
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
A Well Balanced Mix provides Firm Power on Demand
Germany, Winter Week 2050
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
19.11. 20.11. 21.11. 22.11. 23.11. 24.11. 25.11.
Po
wer
[G
W]
Cogen Fossil PV, Wind Bio., Geo., Hydro. Import CSPPump Storage Peaking Plants (fossil) RES Surplus
Hourly time series modelling of power supply in the TRANS-CSP scenario
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Capacity Balance Germany 2050
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Hour of Year
Def
icit
an
d S
urp
lus
Cap
acit
y [G
W]
DeficitSurplus
A Well Balanced Mix provides Firm Power on Demand
requiredpeakingcapacity
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Renewable Energy Resource Indicators
FLh Annual Full Load Hours
THDR Temperature of Hot Dry Rocks in 5000 m Depth
DNI Direct Normal Irradiance
GTI Global Irradiance on Surface tilted by Latitude
Resource Hydro Geo Bio CSP Wind PV Wa/TiIndicator Flh THDR FLh DNI FLh GTI FLhUnit h/y °C h/y kWh/m²/y h/y kWh/m²/y h/yAustria 3608 200 4500 820 897 1380 0Cyprus 0 100 3500 2200 900 2100 4000Denmark 2818 100 5000 950 1736 1180 4000Finland 4933 100 5500 950 1316 1180 4000France 2838 200 4500 1060 633 1560 4000Czech Republic 1100 100 4500 760 1143 1130 0Belgium 4466 100 4500 700 1444 1140 4000Ireland 2264 100 4500 700 1610 1120 4000Luxembourg 789 100 4500 700 1500 1130 0Netherlands 2432 180 4500 700 1786 1120 4000Sweden 4852 180 4500 1070 1602 1240 4000Switzerland 2894 100 4500 990 1000 1170 0United Kingdom 1857 180 4500 660 2184 1100 4000Poland 1881 180 4500 790 1000 1140 4000Bulgaria 1667 180 5500 1070 900 1510 0Slowac Republic 2000 180 4500 750 900 1430 0Slowenia 4419 180 4500 860 900 1250 4000Germany 3667 180 4500 900 1709 1260 4000Hungary 3771 220 4500 1100 900 1370 0Greece 1331 213 3500 1900 1517 1730 4000Italy 2502 200 3500 2000 1600 1800 4000Malta 0 100 3500 2000 900 2150 4000Portugal 2589 213 3500 2100 3620 1910 4000Spain 1705 213 4500 2250 2325 2020 4000Turkey 2762 281 3500 2000 2000 1900 4000Macedonia 2667 100 4500 1100 900 1450 4000Croatia 2823 180 4500 940 900 1400 4000Romania 3086 190 4500 1200 900 1500 0Serbia & Montenegro 3715 220 4500 1250 900 1550 4000Bosnia-Herzegowina 3091 100 4500 1100 900 1450 4000Iceland 6038 400 4500 810 900 970 4000Norway 5164 100 5000 580 1923 850 4000
TRANS-CSPTRANS-CSP
Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ. Tech. Econ.Austria 56,0 56,0 n.a. 3,0 n.a. 10,8 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,0 n.a. 2,9 n.a. n.a.Cyprus 24,0 1,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,5 23 20 n.a. 6,0 n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,2Denmark 0,0 0,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 55,0 n.a. 1,3 n.a. 2,2Finland 20,0 20,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 20,4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 27,0 n.a. 1,7 n.a. 2,0France 72,0 72,0 n.a. 9,0 n.a. 86,2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 129,0 n.a. 23,4 n.a. 12,0Czech Republic 4,0 3,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5,8 n.a. 1,1 n.a. n.a.Belgium 0,3 0,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 6,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 13,0 n.a. 2,1 n.a. 0,2Ireland 1,0 1,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 55,0 n.a. 1,1 n.a. 4,0Luxembourg n.a. 0,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,0 n.a. 0,8 n.a. n.a.Netherlands 0,1 0,1 n.a. 0,9 n.a. 10,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 40,0 n.a. 4,3 n.a. 1,0Sweden 130,0 90,0 n.a. 0,9 n.a. 24,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 63,5 n.a. 3,7 n.a. 2,0Switzerland 41,0 38,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 3,1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,0 n.a. 3,7 n.a. n.a.United Kingdom 7,8 7,8 n.a. 0,2 n.a. 39,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 344,0 n.a. 7,8 n.a. 60,0Poland 14,0 7,0 n.a. 1,0 n.a. 34,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 65,0 n.a. 3,1 n.a. 1,0Bulgaria 15,0 12,0 n.a. 0,6 n.a. 18,4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 8,9 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Slowac Republic 7,0 6,0 n.a. 1,7 n.a. 4,6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,7 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Slowenia 9,0 8,0 n.a. 0,3 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,3 n.a. 1,0 n.a. n.a.Germany 26,0 26,0 120,0 45,0 n.a. 71,4 n.a. n.a. n.a. 262,0 n.a. 23,4 n.a. 7,0Hungary 5,0 4,0 n.a. 25,9 n.a. 11,3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,3 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Greece 15,0 12,0 n.a. 4,7 n.a. 8,0 44 4 n.a. 49,0 n.a. 3,9 n.a. 4,0Italy 105,0 65,0 n.a. 15,0 n.a. 42,9 88 7 n.a. 79,0 n.a. 17,6 n.a. 3,0Malta n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,2 2 2 n.a. 0,2 n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,1Portugal 33,0 20,0 n.a. 7,0 n.a. 14,6 436 142 n.a. 18,0 n.a. 3,9 n.a. 7,0Spain 70,0 41,0 n.a. 18,0 n.a. 79,2 1646 1278 n.a. 93,0 n.a. 19,5 n.a. 13,0Turkey 216,0 122,0 n.a. 150,0 n.a. 47,8 405 131 n.a. 110,0 n.a. 15,6 n.a. n.a.Macedonia 6,0 4,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,5 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,6 n.a. n.a.Croatia 9,0 8,0 n.a. 0,6 n.a. 12,1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 2,6 n.a. 0,8 n.a. 3,0Romania 36,0 18,0 n.a. 0,5 n.a. 3,7 n.a. n.a. n.a. 7,9 n.a. 2,0 n.a. n.a.Serbia & Montenegro 27,0 27,0 n.a. 2,1 n.a. 13,6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,3 n.a. 1,0 n.a. 2,0Bosnia-Herzegowina 24,0 19,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,6 n.a. n.a. n.a. 0,1 n.a. 0,6 n.a. n.a.Iceland 64,0 40,0 n.a. 91,2 n.a. 0,1 n.a. n.a. n.a. 1,0 n.a. 0,3 n.a. 10,0Norway 200,0 178,0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 11,9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 76,0 n.a. 1,0 n.a. 10,0Total 908 378 616 1584 1517 154 144
Wind PV Wa/TiHydro Geo Bio CSP
Total 908 378 616 1584 1517 154 144
Renewable Electricity Potentials in TWh/y
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