Strategic challenges in global energy –the contribution from the oil and gas business
Maria van der HoevenExecutive Director
© OECD/IEA 2012
GE Oil&Gas Annual MeetingFlorence, 04 February 2014
Oil and gas remains the backbone of energy supply
Growth in total primary energy demand
Coal
Gas1987‐2011
2011‐2035
Renewables
Coal
Nuclear
Oil
500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2012
Today's share of fossil fuels in the global mix, at 82%, is the same as it was 25 years ago; the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035the strong rise of renewables only reduces this to around 75% in 2035
Very large upstream investments are needed even with low demand growth
World liquids production by source
© OECD/IEA 2012
Energy poverty in energy rich countries
© OECD/IEA 2012
Coal is powering the Asian miracle
© OECD/IEA 2012
Abundant and well‐diversified supplies drive the growth of gas
Change in annual natural gas production
Russia
United States
China
Iraq
Qatar
Australia 2011‐20202020‐2035
Iran
Turkmenistan
Brazil
‐30 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
Algeria
bcm
© OECD/IEA 2012
Natural gas production increases in every region of the worldbetween 2011 & 2035, with the exception of Europe
Well‐functioning markets are the foundation of policy trust
© OECD/IEA 2012
Golden rules are needed to maintain acceptance of shale gas
© OECD/IEA 2012
Methane leakage can move gas from solution to part of the problem
1400
worst case leakagekg/MWh
Greenhouse gas emissions from power generation
1000
1200worst case leakagebest case leakagecombustion
600
800
400
0
200
coal gas
© OECD/IEA 2012
g
So CCS should play a major role – but is it on track?
© OECD/IEA 2012
Private sector innovation will be key for security and sustainability
© OECD/IEA 2012
Strategic challenges in global energy –the contribution from the oil and gas business
Maria van der HoevenExecutive Director
© OECD/IEA 2012
GE Oil&Gas Annual MeetingFlorence, 04 February 2014
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