Stephen M. Ogle, Dan Cooley, Tristram West, Andrew Schuh, Ken
Davis, F. Jay Breidt, Arlyn Andrews, Linda Heath, Kevin Gurney, and
Scott Denning Resolving CO 2 Flux Estimates from Atmospheric
Inversions and Inventories in the Mid-Continent Region: An
Overview
Slide 2
Main Goal of MCI Synthesis Compare and reconcile to the extent
possible CO 2 fluxes from inventories and atmospheric inversions C
CO 2 C Atmospheric Inversions Inventories
Slide 3
MCI Campaign Region
Slide 4
Major Tasks (DROP?) Compile Inversion data and Inventory for
MCI region Organize contributions and intercomparisons Compare
Inversions with Inventory Comparisons with sources in inventory and
other land surface characteristics Reconcile Inversion and
Inventory Results Produce best estimate given the two lines of
evidence about CO2 flux for MCI Investigate sensitivity of
inversions to tower density and a priori inversion framework
Mechanisms Interpretation of underlying mechanisms driving
fluxes
Slide 5
Current components of the bottom-up inventory estimate of
carbon fluxes 1) Cropland NPP 2) Harvested carbon 3) Livestock
feed/emissions 4) human food/emissions 5) Carbon exported out of
the MCI 6) soil carbon stock changes 7) forest carbon stock
changes. 8) fossil fuels
Slide 6
Inventory Examples: Cattle Feed/Respiration ConAgra feedlot in
Greely, CO (U.S.) Capacity for about 100,000 cattle Emissions over
pens greater than 1000 mol/m 2 /sec !!! (Baum et al. 2008)
Slide 7
Inventory Examples: Crop Production Maize Production 2007
Soybean Production 2007 United States
Slide 8
+ = ?
Slide 9
Consumption of Livestock Feed, 2004 (Mg C per county) NPP +
Livestock, 2004 (Mg C per county) NPP in 2004 (Mg C per county)
Summing it up. West et. al. (in submission)
Slide 10
Initial Comparisons of Inversions to Inventory (MCI Annual NEE,
pre-2005) Data from North American Carbon Program Interim
Synthesis, A. Jacobsen PgC/year
Slide 11
Results courtesy of C. Rdenbeck JENA Inversion JENA Inversion
Large scale global inversion (4x 5) Large scale global inversion
(4x 5) Uses hourly and flask (weekly) data Uses hourly and flask
(weekly) data Prior constraints via Prior constraints via
`statistical flux model setting spatial/temporal `statistical flux
model setting spatial/temporal correlations and weighting
correlations and weighting CarbonTracker Inversion CarbonTracker
Inversion Nested global inversion (22 global regions subset by 19
Olson ecosystem types) Nested global inversion (22 global regions
subset by 19 Olson ecosystem types) Uses hourly and flask (weekly)
data Uses hourly and flask (weekly) data EnKF solving for ecoregion
bias for a priori CASA fluxes EnKF solving for ecoregion bias for a
priori CASA fluxes Results courtesy of A. Jacobsen/W. Peters MCI
Annual NEE Estimates (2000-2004) (g/m 2 /sec)
Slide 12
North America Annual NEE Estimate from 2004 (g/m 2 /yr) Schuh
et al. 2009 (in review) CROPS?
Slide 13
Carbon Tracker residuals: LEF (afternoon average) CT - Measured
(ppm CO2) WLEF POOR AGREEMENT (CT TOO HIGH) Most trajectories have
some southerly influence. CT overestimates CO2 compared to obs;
probably not enough uptake over corn Courtesy of A. Andrews
Slide 14
No crops in underlying prior models Incredible mid-day drawdown
of up to 60 umol/m2/s2. Phenology-based crop model has been
incorporated into biosphere model (SiB3) dramatically improving
flux estimates over crops. Lokupitiya et al. 2009
Slide 15
Slide 16
Slide 17
Slide 18
31-day running mean Strong coherent seasonal cycle across
stations West Branch (wbi) and Centerville (ce) differ
significantly from 2007 to 2008 Large variance in seasonal
drawdown, despite being separated by, at most, 550 km Mauna Loa wbi
aircraft Ring 2 Observations
Slide 19
Lagrangian Footprints for Descent/Ascents Martins et. al.
(2009)
Slide 20
Aircraft Observations Lagrangian aircraft sampling mitigated
errors due to advection and entrainment Results showed averaged
daily NEE of approximately - 10 mol/m2/sec over path Martins et.
al. (2009) 370ppm..384ppm 0 2000 meters CO2 Profiles for
Descent/Ascents
Slide 21
Where are we now with inversions and inventory estimates?
Inventory has been compiled up to 2005 and is currently being
compiled for 2007 (and 2008) Atmospheric transport has been run and
will likely be rerun once more before AGU 2009. LPDM footprints are
currently being created and tested. Initial comparisons have been
made with forward coupled biosphere- atmosphere model to
observations
Slide 22
Initial comparisons of forward model (SiBRAMS) to observations
CO 2 (ppm)
Slide 23
Simulation of CO2, April July 2007 (0 meters to 5000 meters
above terrain )
Slide 24
Thanks! Stephen Ogle, Scott Denning, Kathy Corbin, Erandi
Lokupitiya, Dan Cooley, Jay Breidt, Keith Paustian Colorado State
University Ken Davis, Natasha Miles, Liza Diaz, Thomas Lauvaux Penn
State University Linda Heath United States Forest Service Tris
West, Bob Cook Oak Ridge National Laboratory Pieter Tans, Arlyn
Andrews, Gabrielle Petron, Colm Sweeney Andy Jacobsen ESRL/NOAA
Douglas Martins, Paul Shepson, Kevin Gurney Purdue Univerisity
Shashi Verma University of Nebraska Shuguang Liu U.S.G.S EROS Data
Center Tim Griffis University of Minnesota Margaret Torn Lawrence
Berkley National Laboratory Cesar Izaurralde Pacific Northwest
National Laboratory Maosheng Zhao (MODIS fPAR/LAI) NTGS University
of Montana Participants