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PROVINCIAL DISASTER MANAGEMENT CENTRE
STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES FOR WEATHER INTELLIGENCE AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS
September 2013
Mr Mthokozisi P Duze
Head: Provincial Disaster Management Centre
Standard Operating Procedures for Weather Intelligence and Early Warning Systems
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. PURPOSE .............................................................................................................................................2
2. BACKGROUND .....................................................................................................................................2
3. WEATHER INFORMATION MANAGEMENT ...........................................................................................5
a. Decoding Received Information ...................................................................................................5
b. Watches and Warnings ................................................................................................................7
c. Special weather Advisories ..........................................................................................................9
4. POSSIBLE ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED UPON RECEIPT OF EARLY WARNING INFORMATION ............. 11
5. CONCLUSION ..................................................................................................................................... 13
6. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 13
7. CONTACT PERSON ............................................................................................................................. 14
Standard Operating Procedures for Weather Intelligence and Early Warning Systems
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1. PURPOSE
The purpose of this document is to provide a common understanding for the
interpretation of comprehensive adverse weather related information as disseminated
by the various line function bodies or organizations for early warning purposes. This
Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) intended to provide uniform approach in the
understanding of and reaction towards the received early warning message by the
disaster management practitioners.
2. BACKGROUND
An integrated information management and communication system should be
established to achieve the objectives of Enabler one outlined in the National and
Provincial Disaster Management Policy Frameworks in line with the Disaster
Management Act (Act 57 of 2002). Early warning systems (EWS) are designed to alert
areas, communities, households and individuals to an impending or imminent
significant event or disaster so that they can take the necessary steps to avoid or
reduce the risk and prepare for an effective response. Early warnings are issued by
various organizations which are responsible for monitoring and evaluating specific risks
and hazards. The Provincial Disaster Management Centre (PDMC) must ensure that
strategic links are established with those organizations or agencies that are
responsible for disseminating the early warnings in order to develop emergency
preparedness plans for responding to a threatening incident. Early warning system
(EWS) should rather deal with significant & disastrous events that require action, than
less urgent hazards that the public should be aware off.
Major Role Players in integrated early warning:
• South African Weather Service (SAWS) - weather forecast, satellite
information;
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• Department of Water Affairs - flood warnings, dam and river levels, water
supplies;
• Department of Agriculture - crop forecasts, staple food quality, forage
availability, water irrigation and livestock;
• Department of Health - epidemics and diseases;
• Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF) – Veld fire
indexes.
There are four critical elements of an effective EWS, namely:
• Risk Knowledge has to do with the knowledge of the common risks within a
particular area. This knowledge can be generated through a disaster risk
assessment which is essential for anticipation and effective emergency
preparedness. It is therefore imperative for Municipalities to have updated
comprehensive disaster risk profiles. Profiled risks can be linked with the
seasonal forecast to near forecast or warning for better preparedness and
effective response and recovery.
• Monitoring and issue Warnings on the patterns and the weather system
development from relevant stakeholders. It is also disaster management
practitioner’s role and responsibility to visually assess and monitor weather
developments.
• Dissemination of imminent disaster warnings can be done through all kinds of
communication mediums. This is crucial for alerting all relevant stakeholders to
prepare and activate emergency response and evacuation procedures.
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• Response capability deals with a series of actions and decisions that must be
executed in response to the successful implementation of the other three
elements.
Figure 1: Four elements that form a comprehensive w eather warning system
The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is employed in the EWS as a simple but general
digital format for exchanging all-hazard emergency alerts and public warnings over all
kinds of networks. CAP allows a consistent warning message to be disseminated
simultaneously over many different warning systems, thus increasing warning
effectiveness while simplifying the warning task.
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3. WEATHER INFORMATION MANAGEMENT
3.1. Decoding Received Information
Disaster management practitioners must familiarise themselves with several symbolic
information; colour coding, and the system’s terminology, to link it into proper reactions.
SAWS issue alerts (Advisory, Watch and Warning Update) on weather hazards which
are a threat to communities.
The alerts are issued to stakeholders and general public, media and SAWS webpage
using standard channels such emails, cell phone sms, etc. See Figure 2 below:
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Figure 2: Colour coding and hazard’s symbol interpr etation.
Advisory : Weather hazard may occur in 2 days from now or longer and public
should be aware.
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Watch: Weather Hazard may occur within a day 1 to day 3 and relevant
stakeholders and public should be prepared. Conditions are more likely
to reach the conditions of a warning.
Warning : Very high possibility that hazardous weather will occur within next
24 hours and relevant stakeholders and the public must take action. It
may also mean bad weather conditions are already occurring or
imminent.
3.2. Watches and Warnings
According to the SAWS watches and warnings are done using a Short Message
Service (SMS) to disaster management stakeholders but are also disseminated
through radio, TV, website, and email where required. The watches and warnings are
issued for the severe weather related hazards that could lead to significant or
disastrous events such as the following:
• Heavy rain of more than 50 mm in 24 hours;
• Flash flooding / localized urban flooding caused by large scale heavy rain;
• Severe thunderstorms (T/S) leading to either significant hail, tornadoes, strong
wind gusts or localized urban flooding;
• Gale force winds with a wind speed of more than 62 km/h (34 knots);
• Disruptive snow falls that could result in significant disruptions to mountain
passes, major roads, highways or populated areas;
• High swell or waves where waves in excess of 6 m may affect exposed coastal
areas.
A list of hazards requiring watches and warnings is displayed in Table 1 below.
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Severe Weather Watches / Warnings (Be prepared / Take Action)
1-3 days in advance, Could be the consequences of Intense large weather systems
Special Collaborative Warnings
Issued in collaboration with other Institutions
1. Disruptive Snowfalls 1. Veld fire conditions
2. Heavy Rain 2. Tsunami
3. Flooding 3. Storm Surges
� Heavy Rain leading to Flash flooding (non T/S)
� Localised Flooding (non T/S) .
4. Severe Thunderstorms
� Hail, gusts, tornadoes, local flooding
5. Sea State (High swell > 6 m)
6. Strong winds (Gale force)
SMS, CAP, Email, etc SMS, Email, CAP for selected hazards, etc
Table 1: List of hazards requiring watches and warn ings
Watches and warnings are also issued when needed for hazards not specifically under SAWS
mandate, but where SAWS collaborates with other institutions for issuing these warnings
through national guidelines. These include high veld-fire danger conditions (see Table: 2),
tsunami warnings as issued by the National Disaster Management Centre and storm surge
warnings.
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Colour FDI Classification Description of Classification
BLUE 0-20 INSIGNIFICANT The fire danger is so low that no precaution is required.
GREEN
21-45
LOW Fires including prescribed burns may be allowed in the opened air on
the condition that the persons making fires take responsible
precautions against fire spreading.
� Check FDIs every 2 hours.
YELLOW
46-60
MODERATE The fire danger is such that no fires maybe allowed in the open air
except those that are authorised by the Chief Fire Officer of the local
fire service and those in designated fireplaces; authorised fires may
include prescribed burns.
� Check FDIs every hour. Remain in contact at night.
ORANGE
61-75
HIGH The fire danger is such that no fire may be allowed under any
circumstances in the open air.
� Check FDIs every hour. Remain in contact at night. Be highly
aware of weather.
RED
76-100
EXTREMELY HIGH The fire danger is such that no fire may be allowed under any
circumstances in the open air; and special emergency fire preparedness
measures must be induced.
� Check FDIs every hour. Chief fire Officer take charge and
monitor. Be highly aware of weather.
Table 2: Colour coding and fire danger index classi fication.
3.3. Special weather Advisories
Such advisories are issued under two circumstances related to unusual or uncommon
weather conditions and will generally not be done through SMSs but through the normal
channels including radio, TV, web, and email where required:
• When a lesser urgent type of alert is required to advise communities that expected
weather conditions are unusual and could cause concern. These weather hazards
include:
• Extremely hot conditions above 400C, high discomfort levels, heat waves,
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• Snowfalls expected,
• Strong wind,
• Frost where it is uncommon,
• Thick fog.
• When an intense large weather system such as a tropical cyclone, tropical
depression, intense cold front or cut-off low is expected in the next 5 days, all of
which could lead to widespread potentially disruptive conditions related to heavy
rain, flooding, very cold conditions, snow, gale force winds or rough seas. The
consequences of these weather systems will be escalated into watches or warnings
as described above when these hazards become imminent in the next 1 to 3 days.
A list of phenomena that requires special weather advisories is shown in table 3 below:
Special Weather Advisories (Be Aware) (Up to 5 days in advance, do NOT escalate to warnings as such)
1. Intense large weather systems (whose consequences could lead to warnings later):
� Tropical cyclones, Tropical depressions, Intense Cold fronts, Cut-off lows
2. Lesser urgent types of alert:
� Extremely hot conditions
� High Discomfort values � Heat Waves .
� Strong interior winds
� Reduced visibility . � Widespread or coastal FOG
� Frost (uncommon or first) Email, CAP, SMS only when needed, etc.
Table 3: List of phenomena for special weather advi sories
The above described weather information system envisage to target relevant local
municipalities under threat, which allows enhanced delineation of areas under threat and for
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which the warning will be applicable. The system will then choose the hazard and warning
level; and issue the warning in a message content and format based on international
standards and practices.
Table 4: Classification of Severe Weather Hazards
HAZARD DEFINITION
1. Extremely hot conditions Maximum temperature forecast 40°C and above
2. Very cold conditions Maximum temperatures 10°C and below and/or Minimum -10°C
below
3. High discomfort values. Discomfort Index meeting or exceeding 38°C (or 100 °F)
4. Heat wave 3 consecutive days with maximum temperature be more or equal to
5°C higher than average max of the hottest month for the station
5. Gale force winds and stronger Average wind speed of more than 34knots (62 km/h) or gusts in
excess of 44 knots for land based regions
6. Veld Fire Danger Rating If the fire danger rating is high according to the National Fire
Danger Rating System work instruction.
7. Heavy rain 50 mm or more within 24 hours
8. Flash Flood Flash flood as defined by South African Flash Flood Guidance
system work instruction
9. Snow Sufficient snow to cause disruptions in passes and /or populated
areas
10.Severe thunderstorms Severe Thunderstorm with one or any combination of the following:
Hail of greater than 19 mm diameter or large amounts of small hail,
Tornadoes (any), Wind gusts 50 Knots or more in association with
a thunderstorm
11. Destructive coastal waves Abnormally high coastal waves with combination of Spring tides
and heavy swell, or total sea of >7m where the waves expected to
cause significant coastal damage.
4. POSSIBLE ACTIONS TO BE CONSIDERED UPON RECEIPT OF EARLY WARNING
INFORMATION
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Timeline Weather Information Possible Actions
Lea
d t
o a
n i
nci
de
nt
45+ days
� Seasonal forecasts provide useful
insights into macro-climatic
patterns and trends.
� Optimise tactical readiness within
emergency response structures
based on potential threats- seasonal
contingency plans.
15+ days
� A few weeks ahead of any
disaster, weather patterns can be
seen developing over large
regional areas.
� Match ‘trigger leaders’ with location
specific risk assessments and
schedule operational preparedness.
2 days
� From a two-day horizon, hourly
weather predictions for specific
locations become operationally
accurate.
� Test operational preparedness and
create ‘response awareness’ through
community based team members
1 day
� Forecast accuracy is improved
significantly to the one-day
horizon with same-day morning
observations.
� Emergency response networks are
readied for likely activity- may
activate a JOC.
8 hours
� Significant storm activity can be
detected in catchment areas and
the conditions for flood potential
ascertained.
� Modelled threats provide sufficient
time for orderly evacuation of
people and movable goods.
4 hours
� Flooding along long river systems
can be detected in advance of the
swift water reaching populated
areas.
� Prepare high value and/or sensitive
sites that can not be evacuated for
impending disaster.
1 hour
� One-hour notifications of storm
paths and rising swift water levels
for most river systems become
accurate.
� Evacuate of people and critical
movable goods such as vehicles
and/or livestock- overflowing
bridges closure.
30 min.
� Swift water observations in short
river systems and lightning and
severe storm positions.
� Rapid evacuation of groups of
people – will require pre-planning
and training of communities.
15 min
� Observation of conditions for
impending disaster.
� Audible and visual sirens triggered at
points of vulnerability.
Figure 5: The timeline and interventions to an impe nding disaster
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The timeline to a disaster illustrated in table 5 offers many points of intervention that may
reduce the impact of the event if properly translated into relevant reactions. Adverse weather
warning and direction allows improved deployment of resources against risk factors.
All stakeholders in the disaster management fraternity should be notified of the impending
disaster before an ‘evacuation’ level is reached. Disaster management authorities should
drive the evacuation of large scale communities, site preparations and moveable goods
according to their contingency planning and coordination.
Rescue team and other supporting stakeholders deployed throughout the area of disaster,
performing various activities should continue to monitor the weather developments as they
may be exposed to environmental risks such as:
• Secondary flooding
• Lightning strikes
• Low visibility conditions
• Strong and/or shifting wind conditions
5. CONCLUSION
The PDMC must ensure that all key elements of the Standard Operating Procedures for
Weather Intelligence and Early Warning Systems are taken into consideration, and that the
system is implemented. The PDMC envisage that this SOP will aid in the reduction of the
weather related risks and their impacts; improve emergency preparedness; ensure rapid and
effective disaster response and recovery in the province. All disaster management
practitioners should work closely with all stakeholders to ensure an effective implementation
of the Early Warning System.
6. REFERENCES
• Enhancement of the Severe Weather Warning System: Modified List of Weather Hazards for the Issuing of Weather Warnings South African Weather Service., 15 March 2013
• www.weathersa.co.za/ accessed on 27 May 2013
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• www.firestop.co.za accessed on 11 September 2013
• www.mlilofire.co.za accessed on 11 September 2013
• Weather Risk Management Systems Support to Disaster Management: Weather Intelligence Systems., September 2009
7. CONTACT PERSON
MRS Z C KHUZWAYO DEPUTY MANAGER: DISASTER MANAGEMENT RISK REDUCTION AND PLANNING Tel: 033 897 5661 Fax 033 897 5677 Email: [email protected]
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