Space Manned Missions “What a joke !”
Arnaud Demay@A_Demay
Space Engineer
SpaceUp Paris 25&26/05/2013
Going beyond the limits, discovering new frontiers
Probability of death (in a normal life): 10-6 per hour
Probability of loss of passengers: 10-8 per hour
Probability of loss of the crew: 10-3 per mission
Having a better probability means a fu***ng bigger S/C
One key wordSAFETY
Crossing the atmosphere:P > 5,000 Pascals !Failure rate ~ 5%
Design failures (F2, 5, 15, 18) then production failures (F36, 63, 70)Longest series of successes is 74
Huge production (more than 1750 flights…) Longest series of successes is 149
Reliability under 10-2
Escape system for the crew is mandatory
654 astro/cosmonauts above 100km38 countries520 reached LEO24 went beyond : the Moon
“I’m sorry Dave.I’m afraid I can’t do that.”
4 cosmonauts and 14 astronauts died (less than 2%)
A design principle FO/FS criteria
Failure Detection, Identification and Recovery
-> FDIR methodology
Constraint: Volume
Example of a Mars mission: time duration in space
Long mission: a LOT of challenges
Thank you !Keep enjoying space
Arnaud Demay@A_Demay
Space Engineer
SpaceUp Paris 25&26/05/2013
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