IRENA’s Power Generation Costing Analysis:PV in Focus
July 2013
Michael [email protected]
IRENA Innovation and Technology Centre
COSTING….
WHY?HOW?WITH WHOM?
2
1
Rationale and goals
• Renewable energy can meet policy goals for secure,
reliable and affordable energy and access.
• Lack of objective and up-to-date data is a barrier
• Decision making based on: outdated numbers, opinion
• IRENA to strive to become THE source for cost data
• Goals: Assist government decision-making, allow more ambitious policies
Fill a significant information gap
• Coverage:
Power generation (June 2012 and January 2013)
Road Transport (July 2013)
Stationary applications (2014) 3
Framework
4
Where to set the boundaries? How to get data?
Are costs even available? Prices, or price indicators?
Levelised cost of electricity (LCOE)
RENEWABLE POWER
GENERATION 2012
5
2
Key findings
6
• Renewables now THE economic solution off-grid and for
mini-grids, increasingly competitive for grid supply
• A shift in policy focus will need to come
• Dramatic price reductions for Solar PV. Onshore wind
competitive at best sites, CSP has great potential.
Hydropower, geothermal and biomass more mature
• Equipment cost declines and technology improvements
LCOEs are falling
• A convergence in LCOEs
• Data collection poses challenges
LCOE ranges and averages
7
Levelised cost of electricity by country/region
8Note: assumes a 10% cost of capital
The LCOE of wind
© IRENA 2013 9
Higher capacity
factors from improved
technology
Wind turbine
cost reductions
Hydropower
• Mature technology, flexibility in design in many cases
• Lowest cost electricity of any source in many cases
• Importance will grow with penetration of variable RE
10
SOLAR PV:
11
3
Introduction
• Solar PV is democratising not only electricity but also
renewables
• Huge potential economic, environmental and social
dividends for developing countries in the sun belt
• Solar PV module prices have fallen rapidly, but much more
stable in 2013
• Grid parity for residential customers will become
increasingly the norm in Europe, but…
• Globally a very narrow market, deployment is not typically
where the sun is….much work needs to be done12
PV modules prices
13
Learning rates for PV modules
14Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, February, 2011
2013
Non-OECD installed costs for PV (utility-scale)
15
Solar PV installed costs
16
An emerging/persistent issue:Balance of system costs?
17
Cost reduction pass-through will be strongly tied to success in reducing BoS costs
Source: Seel, Barbose and Wiser, 2012
So what does all this mean?
18
REMAP: doubling the share of renewables by 2030
• Power sector hasthe lowest costs
• Solar PV is an importantpart of the solution
…and is set to become amajor source of electricity
PLANS FOR THE IRENA RENEWABLE COSTING ALLIANCE
AND
FUTURE WORK ON PV19
4
Rationale and Plans
• Analysis to date has been based on low hanging fruit
• Engage with business: The Alliance will work at a technical
level on data and its availability
• Alliance members share, confidentially, their data on real
world project costs
• Entirely voluntary, we work together for mutual benefit
• Establishment period now, offical launch at Assembly
• Goals:
more data, better data, a greater focus on analysis of
data
20
Structure
Member countries: Steering group for costing analysis focus One workshop a year Must nominate institution to deliver data Quarterly newsletter
Alliance Members: Provide data, confidentially One workshop a year Ability to query the database in detail Quarterly newsletter
Observers: Quarterly newsletter Mailing list for new publications/analysis
21
Predicting solar flares…
or at least IRENA’s plans for PV
• PV Parity Indicators
• Economic opportunities mapping with the IRENA
Global Atlas
• In-depth analysis of emerging market costs and
market development
22
Renewables are increasingly competitive, but more needs tobe done to fulfill their potential…
23
www.irena.org/costs
IRENA is part of the solution
Top Related