8/13/2019 Singapore Retail 4Q 2012
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Outline of Presentation
2
1. Market Review
2. Year 2013 Market Outlook
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Market Review
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Retail Property MarketGeographic Distribution
4
Total Stock*(as of December 2012)
36.81 mil sq ft
*URAs shop space statistics excludes space for F&B and entertainment use as of 4Q 2012
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / URA
Downtown Core9.4%
Orchard13.7%
Rest of CentralArea14.6%
Fringe Area
29.3%
Outside CentralRegion33.0%
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Retail Property MarketConsumer Sentiments
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / Singapore Department of Statistics
Retail Sales Index
(Excluding Motor Vehicles)
Jan-Dec 2012
(Estimate)107.2
Jan-Dec 2011 105.4
Annual Growth 1.7%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
Dec-
09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-
10
Sep-
10
Oct-10
Nov-
10
Dec-
10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-
11
Sep-
11
Oct-11
Nov-
11
Dec-
11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-
12
Sep-
12
Oct-12
Nov-
12
Dec-
12
AnnualG
rowth
2010=100;atconstantprices
Retail Sales Index (Excluding Motor Vehicles)
Index YoY Change
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Retail Property MarketVisitor Arrivals
Visitor Arrivals in 2011
Jan-Dec 2011 13.2 mil
YoY Growth 13.2%
Annual Average
(2002 to 2011)9.56 mil
Visitor Arrivals in 2012
Jan-Dec 2012
(Estimate)14.4 Mil
YoY Growth 9.1%
2012 Forecast 13.514.5 mil
2015 Forecast 17.0 mil
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / Singapore Tourism Board
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Apr-10
May-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-10
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
AnnualGrowth
NumberofVisitors
Monthly Visitor Arrivals to Singapore
Visitor Arrivals YoY Change
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Retail Property MarketDemand, Supply and Occupancy of Shop* Space
Net New Supply (000 sq ft)
Annual Average
(2002 to 2011)334
2011 43
2012 11
Net New Demand (000 sq ft)
Annual Average
(2002 to 2011)407
2011 215
2012 32
*URAs shop space statistics excludes space for F&B and entertainment use
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / URA
80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
-500
-250
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Occupanc
yRate
NetNew
Supply&Demand('000sqft)
Islandwide Net New Demand, Supply and Occupancy Rate
Net New Supply Net New Demand Occupancy Rate
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Source: Colliers International Singapore Research
Retail Property MarketRental Trends by Micro-markets
Orchard Road
Trough to Peak
(3Q03 vs 3Q08)20.5%
Impact of GFC
(3Q08 vs 3Q09)-12.0%
Extent of Current
Recovery
(3Q11 vs 3Q09)
0.9%
Current Downturn
(4Q12 vs 3Q11)-3.2%
Regional Centres
Trough to Peak
(4Q01 vs 3Q08)52.6%
Impact of GFC(3Q08 vs 2Q09)
-3.1%
Extent of Current
Recovery
(1Q12 vs 2Q09)
4.6%
Current Downturn
(4Q12 vs 1Q12)-1.1%
$43.38
$38.17
$37.25
$33.38
$32.33
$33.42
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00
1Q2
003
2Q2
003
3Q2
003
4Q2
003
1Q2
004
2Q2
004
3Q2
004
4Q2
004
1Q2
005
2Q2
005
3Q2
005
4Q2
005
1Q2
006
2Q2
006
3Q2
006
4Q2
006
1Q2
007
2Q2
007
3Q2
007
4Q2
007
1Q2
008
2Q2
008
3Q2
008
4Q2
008
1Q2
009
2Q2
009
3Q2
009
4Q2
009
1Q2
010
2Q2
010
3Q2
010
4Q2
010
1Q2
011
2Q2
011
3Q2
011
4Q2
011
1Q2
012
2Q2
012
3Q2
012
4Q2
012
MonthlyGrossRents($persqft)
Average Gross Monthly Rents for Prime Retail Space
Orchard Road Regional Centres
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Source: Colliers International Singapore Research
Retail Property MarketCapital Value Trend
Orchard Road
Trough to Peak(2Q04 vs 2Q08)
32.0%
Recent Downturn
(2Q08 vs 4Q09)-14.8%
Extent of CurrentRecovery
(4Q12 vs 2Q09)
17.5%$5,000
$6,600
$5,625
$6,608
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
$5,500
$6,000
$6,500
$7,000
1Q2
003
3Q2
003
1Q2
004
3Q2
004
1Q2
005
3Q2
005
1Q2
006
3Q2
006
1Q2
007
3Q2
007
1Q2
008
3Q2
008
1Q2
009
3Q2
009
1Q2
010
3Q2
010
1Q2
011
3Q2
011
1Q2
012
3Q2
012
AverageCapitalValues
($persqft)
Average Capital Values of Prime Retail (Strata) Spacein Orchard Road
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Market Outlook
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Retail Property MarketFactors Affecting the Leasing Market
Demand Drivers
Opening of new tourist attractions in Singapore
Completion of hotels and attractions at Resorts World Sentosa
Sports tourism e.g. Formula One
MICE tourism and medical tourism potential
Increasingly more international retail brands hope to establish a presence in
Singapore, as Singapore becomes more recognised as a global/regional city
Asia as a hub for retailers
Downside Risks
Uncertain global economic outlook
Inflation
Decline in consumer sentiment
Acute labour challenges/shortages
Increased competition for tenants
Tenants resistance to further rent increases
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Retail Property MarketFactors Affecting the Sales Market
Demand Drivers
Low interest rates and high liquidity levels
Spill over of investor interest from other property sectors that have been
affected by government cooling measures (ie. residential and industrial)
The sector is currently free of market cooling measures.
Growing spirit of enterprise in the retail and F&B sectors.
Owner-occupation as a hedge against rental increases.
Downside Risks
High labour costs
Resistance to pay premium on rents, resulting in yield compression
Possible government anti-speculative measures in the near future due to
frenetic investor demand, especially for strata-retail units at limited new
launches
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*includes space for F&B and entertainment use as of 4Q 2012
Source: Colliers International Singapore Research / URA
Retail Property MarketSupply In The Pipeline*
Pipeline Supply (mil sq ft)
Total
(2013 to 2017)
5.16
Annual Average
(2013 to 2017)
1.03
Compare With (mil sq ft)
Year 2012
(Estimated)
1.20
Year 2013
(Forecast)
2.01
1.20
2.01 1.94
0.89
0.16 0.160.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
NetLettable
Area(milsqft)
Supply in the Pipeline
Completed Upcoming
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Retail Property MarketRents and Capital Value Forecasts
PRIME RENTS(Orchard Road)
2012
-2.7%
Slight Decline
2013F
-3.0% to -5.0%
Decline
PRIME RENTS(RegionalCentres)
2012
-0.5%
Relatively Stable
2013F
-1.0% to -3.0%
Slight Decline
PRIME VALUES(Orchard Road)
2012
4.0%
Increase
2013F
3.0% to 5.0%
Increase
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Thank You
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