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GLOBAL PRODUCTION,
CONSUMPTION ANDINTERNATIONAL MARKET OF
POULTRY MEAT AND EGGS
Dr PIET SIMONSDr PIET SIMONS
Past PresidentPast President
Worlds Poultry Science Association (WPSA)Worlds Poultry Science Association (WPSA)
PO Box 31PO Box 31
7360 AA Beekbergen7360 AA BeekbergenThe NetherlandsThe Netherlands
Poultry Seminar, Lonovala, IndiaPoultry Seminar, Lonovala, India
12 September 200912 September 2009
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nn Global poultry meatGlobal poultry meatnn Global egg productionGlobal egg production
nn Main poultry meat and egg producersMain poultry meat and egg producers(various countries)(various countries)
nn
Poultry meat and egg consumptionPoultry meat and egg consumptionnn CostCost--price poultry meat and eggs inprice poultry meat and eggs in
various countriesvarious countries
nn Global poultry marketGlobal poultry market
uu Driving forcesDriving forces
uu BarriersBarriersnn World trade poultry productsWorld trade poultry products
nn New poultry products in the futureNew poultry products in the future
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Global poultry meat market86.8 Million tonnes
nn Chicken: 85.6%Chicken: 85.6%
nn Turkey: 6.8%Turkey: 6.8%
nn Duck: 4.6%Duck: 4.6%
nn Goose and guinea fowl: 2.6%Goose and guinea fowl: 2.6%
Source: FAO 2007
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World poultry meat production 2007
0
10
20
30
4050
6070
80
90
100
Poultry Chicken Turkey Duck Goose and
guinea fowl
XMilliontonn
es
Source: FAO
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World poultry meat production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2007
Year
XMillio
nMT
Source: FAO
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The changing contribution of the continents to global
poultry meat production (data in %, source FAO)
ContinentContinent 19701970 19901990 20072007
AfricaAfrica 4.04.0 5.05.0 4.24.2
AsiaAsia 17.917.9 24.224.2 36.036.0
EuropeEurope 28.128.1 20.620.6 15.515.5
USSRUSSR 7.17.1 8.08.0 --
N and C AmericaN and C America 36.236.2 31.331.3 27.527.5
S AmericaS America 5.85.8 9.59.5 15.615.6OceaniaOceania 0.90.9 1.21.2 1.21.2
WorldWorld 100.0100.0 100.0100.0 100.0100.0
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Poultry meat production in the
various continents over the years
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA* NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
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Leading countries in poultry
meat production
1970 2007
Country Production Share Country Production Share
(000 tonnes (%) (000 tonnes) (%)
USA 4,645 30.8 USA 19,481 22.4
USSR 1,071 7.1 China 16,034 18.5
China 971 6.4 EU 25 10,392 12.0
France 637 4.2 Brazil 8,908 10.3
World 15,101 100 World 86,800 100
Source: FAO
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Development of poultry meat production
in developed and developing countries
(million tonnes, source FAO)
YearYear WorldWorld DevelopedDeveloped
countriescountries
DevelopingDeveloping
countriescountries
Share (%) ofShare (%) ofdevelopingdevelopingcountriescountries
19701970 1515 1111 44 2626
19751975 1919 1313 55 2828
19801980 2626 1818 88 3131
19851985 3131 2121 1010 3333
19901990 4141 2626 1515 373719951995 5555 2828 2626 4848
20002000 6969 3333 3636 5353
20052005 8181 3737 4444 5555
Increase (%) 437 227 1,043 -
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Development of global meat production
(data in million ton, source FAO)
Year Beef
and veal
Pigmeat Poultry
meat
1970 38 36 15
1975 44 41 19
1980 46 53 26
1985 49 60 31
1990 53 70 41
1995 54 80 55
2000 57 90 69
2007 65 115 87
Increase (%) 71 219 480
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Further in 2007n Turkeys 5.9 million tonnes
u North America 3.4
u Europe 1.7n Ducks 4.0 million tonnes
u Asia 3.3
u China 2.75
n Goose and
guinea fowl 2.6 million tonnesu Asia 2.4
u China 2.3
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Chicken meat consumption 2008Country Kg/person/year
USA 46.1
Brazil 38.8
Argentina 30.7
Russia 19
EU 27 16.3
Japan 15
China 8.7
India 2.1
Rwanda 0.2
Source 2005: Executive guide WATT (2008/2009)
Source 2008: FAPRI
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Chicken meat consumption 2008
0
5
10
15
20
25
3035
40
45
50
USABrazil
Argentina
Mauritius
Russia
EU(27)
Japan
China Ind
ia
Rwanda
kg/person/year
Source: FAPRI (forecast)
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Production cost at farm level in
2007, outside EU (/kg LW)
P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
NL US TH BR
centperkgliveweight
chick feed energy other labour housing general manure
51,7
66,2
51,1
75,9
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World poultry meat consumption
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
kg/person/year
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World poultry productionGrowth forecast
YearYear
Poultry meatPoultry meat
(Million tonnes)(Million tonnes)
19951995 5656
20002000 7474
20152015 110110
20302030 140140
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Total cost farm + processing in
2007 (/kg carcass weight)
P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
NL G FR UK PL US TH BR
centperkgcarcassweigh
t
primary Slaughter
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Wings:
China
Legs:
Russia
Walking feet:
China
Breastmeat:Europe
Deboned
legmeat :Japan
Poultry meat: international trade
in meat cuts
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Brazil: number 1 exporter in
broilermeat
Source: Nutreco/Gira
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Advantages in Brazil
(also in Argentina?)n Good climate: low cost housing
n Low cost of labour
n Inland feed ingredients (corn, soybeans)
Combined with:
n Integrated production (contract)
n Big companies with good management
n
Modern equipmentn Innovative and marketdriven
n Low level of governmental regulations e.g. use ofMBM and growth promotors
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Future
In EU extra rules for animal welfare,In EU extra rules for animal welfare,environment and food safety:environment and food safety:
nn Regulations in EU:Regulations in EU:
uu Ban of meat and bone mealBan of meat and bone mealuu Ban on growth promoters (Ban on growth promoters (janjan 2006)2006)
nn Future Regulations:Future Regulations:
uu Lower stocking density (33 or 39 or 42 kg perLower stocking density (33 or 39 or 42 kg per
mm22, in 2010), in 2010)uu Reduction of salmonella (2011)Reduction of salmonella (2011)
uu Reduction ammonia emission (2010)Reduction ammonia emission (2010)
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World table egg production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2004 2005 2006 2008 (exp)
Year
XMilliontonnes
FAO Database
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Egg production in the various
continents over the years
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
AFRICA ASIA EUROPE LATIN AMERICA* NORTHERN AMERICA OCEANIA
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
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Growth egg production
between 1960 and 2007
Fast inFast in AsiaAsia (now(now 38 million tonnes = 60.7%)38 million tonnes = 60.7%)
ChinaChina (now 25.8 million tonnes =(now 25.8 million tonnes = 41.3%;41.3%;1.2 million tonnes in 1961)1.2 million tonnes in 1961)
Medium slow inMedium slow in AfricaAfrica (2.3 million tonnes)(2.3 million tonnes)South AmericaSouth America (3.4 million tonnes)(3.4 million tonnes)
But continuous upwardsBut continuous upwardsSlow inSlow in EuropeEurope
OceaniaOceania
FAO Database, own calculations
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The five leading countries in hen
egg production
19701970 20072007
CountryCountry ProductionProduction ShareShare CountryCountry ProductionProduction ShareShare
(000 tonnes)(000 tonnes) (%)(%) (000 tonnes)(000 tonnes) (%)(%)
USAUSA 4,0534,053 20.720.7 ChinaChina 25,84625,846 41.341.3
USSRUSSR 2,2482,248 11.511.5 USAUSA 5,3085,308 8.58.5
JapanJapan 1,7661,766 9.09.0 IndiaIndia 2,6702,670 4.34.3
ChinaChina 1,5331,533 7.87.8 JapanJapan 2,5252,525 4.04.0
GermanyGermany 1,1621,162 5.95.9 RussiaRussia 2,0932,093 3.33.3WorldWorld 19,54019,540 100.0100.0 WorldWorld 62,57262,572 100.0100.0
Source: FAO
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Development of hen egg production in developed
and developing countries (000 tonnes, source FAO)
YearYear WorldWorld DevelopedDeveloped
countriescountries
DevelopingDeveloping
countriescountries
Share (%) ofShare (%) ofdevelopingdevelopingcountriescountries
19701970 2020 1515 55 2424
19751975 2222 1616 66 2727
19801980 2626 1818 88 3232
19851985 3131 1919 1212 3939
19901990 3535 1919 1616 4646
19951995 4343 1717 2525 595920002000 5151 1818 3333 6464
20052005 5959 1919 4040 6868
Increase (%) 195 29 758 -
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World egg consumption
8.0 kg eggs 130 eggs
Source: FAO
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
kg/person/year
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Egg consumption 2006
in selected countries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Chi
na
Japa
n
Russia
USA
Argentin
aNL
Libya
Brazil
India
Banglad
esh
Co
ngoDRn
umbersofeggs/person
Source: International Egg Commission, annual review
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Production cost eggs 2006 outside EU,
farm level (ct/kg)
P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
14,59,7 11,1
32,2
24,927,7
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
NL US BR
centperkg
manure
electricity
general
housing
labour
other
feed
pullet
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Production cost Eggs in 2003 outside
EU, Farm level (Ect/kg)
16 15
612 10 9
3837
3429
25 28
10-
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EU PL UKR USA BR INDIA
centperkg
general
housing
labour
other
feed
hen
P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
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Production cost eggs 2006 with China, farm
level (ct/kg)
Source: P. van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
14,59,7 11,1
7,2
32,2
24,9
27,7 36,8
-10,0
0,0
10,0
20,0
30,0
40,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
80,0
NL US BR CH
Euro
centperkg
manure
electricity
general
housing
labour
other
feed
pullet
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Main trade flows in hen eggs
Main trade flow (> 100.000 ton):
Netherlands Germany
Malaysia Singapore
Minor trade flows
Poland Germany
USA Hongkong
India UAE
Source: ISPA
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Layer farming outside EU (e.g. Brazil, India)
nn Open housingOpen housing
nn CagesCages
nn Low cost feed, housing, labourLow cost feed, housing, labour
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Production cost outside EU
a) Circumstances
Low cost of inland feed-ingredients
Low cost of labour
b) Regulations:
- Space allowance: 300400 cm2 per hen
(optimum)- No regulations on debeaking / beaktrimming
- Use of meat and bonemeal (MBM)
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EU Housing systems in 2012
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P. van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands (2007)
More space, higher production
cost .
100 104114
122
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Cage 450cm2 Cage 550 cm2 Enriched cage Aviary
%
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Towards 2012 in EU
1. EU Directive welfare for laying hens
2003: Space allowance 550 cm2 per hen
2012: Enriched cages with 750 cm2
, layingnest, perch, litter
2. Beaktrimming before 10 days (ban in NL, G)
3. Salmonella control
3. Reduction on ammonia emission (IPPC etc)
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Cost increase EU 2006 -2012
(euro/kg eggs)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NL G FR ES PL
eurocentperkgeggs
housing beaktrimming ammonia salmonella
P. Van Horne, WUR, The Netherlands
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Expected Regional distribution of
the additional egg demand in 2015
Asia
Africa
Latin America
and Caribbean
North America
Europe
Oceania
Total: 12 million t
Source: Windhorst, WPSJ 64/3, 2008
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Global poultry marketDriving forces
nn Population growth and demographicsPopulation growth and demographics
nn Economic prosperityEconomic prosperity
nn Relative cost/price advantageRelative cost/price advantage
nn Health and nutritionHealth and nutrition
nn Consumer friendly productsConsumer friendly products
nn FastFast--food chainsfood chains
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Driving livestock revolutionnn ChinaChina 1.31.3 billionbillion
nn IndiaIndia 1.11.1 billionbillion
nn AfricaAfrica 1.01.0 billionbillion
nn 2007 (India):2007 (India):ChickenChicken meatmeat consumptionconsumption 1.9 kg/1.9 kg/yearyear
nn 2009 (2009 (AfricaAfrica,, estimatedestimated))EggEgg consumptionconsumption 4343 eggseggs//yearyear
per capper cap
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Global poultry market
Barriers
nn Trade barriers (high tarifs feedstuffs)Trade barriers (high tarifs feedstuffs)
nn Domestic monopoliesDomestic monopolies
nn Bilatereal agreementsBilatereal agreements
nn Standards (sanitation, hygiene, disease,Standards (sanitation, hygiene, disease,environment, GMO, residues, animalenvironment, GMO, residues, animal
welfare, increase price feedstuffs,welfare, increase price feedstuffs,money crisis, etc.).money crisis, etc.).
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Diseasesn Avian Influenza (HPAI)
especially danger H5N1
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Money Crisisn Crisis management
n Education
n Innovation
n Quality
n Branding
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Food safety
n Food safetymost important issue
Safety is the most important ingredientin our food. Europe must have thecapacity to ensure that we can deliverthis to our customers.
EU Commissioner for Food and Public Health
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However major limitations on the
expansion [of the poultry industry]
will be feed. T. Gillin, FAO 2001
According to Rabo 2008
International in 2012, 67 million kgextra needed to satisfy just meat
demand
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Development feed price in NL(LEI, euro/100 kg)
0
5
1015
20
25
30
35
40
jan-03
jan-04
jan-05
jan-06
jan-07
jan-08
jan-09
vlees leg
2007 2008 2009-1kw
Broilerfeed 30,8 36,5 33,3
Layer feed 23,5 28,1 23,6
Source: P.L.M. van Horne
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Consumption of gasoline and diesel compared
to bioethanol and biodiesel production 2005
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Production bioethanol and biodieselProduction 2005 < 2% of total use for transport
USA 44% (maize, soybean, sunflower)
Brazil 41% (sugercane, soybean)
EU 13% (rapeseed, sugarbeet)
S.E. Asia 2% (palm oil)
Ethanol 90%
Biodiesel 10%
Expected in 2035: 10x production 2005
This is
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Perentage of agricultural land needed to
replace 10% of transport fuel with biofuel
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Genetically modified foodsn Reduce grain wastage by over 40%
(less disease, weeds etc.)
n Will we consume GM foods?
n Will we eat products from animals fedGM feeds?
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Animal welfaren An issue that is gaining more and more
interest
n Battery cages to be banned by 2012 inEU
n Alternatives: enriched, aviary, deep
litter, free range, organic, grassn Also issue in Australia, USA etc.
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Environmental concernsn Manure disposal (N, P)
n Antibiotics EU (banned per January
2006) 10 000 million tonnes/year50% in livestock> 50% passed out (2500 million
tonnes)
n Noise and smelln Global warming potential (GWP)
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Poultry manure burning plant. May
2008 (18/ton)
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Global warming potential factors for major
gases using the IPPC (2001) climate change
values
Substance GWP 100 years; kg
CO2-equivalent
CO2 1
CH4 23
N2O 296
N2O-N 465
Defra project report ISO205, 2006
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Main burdens of animal products per
functional unit produced (1000 kgmeat, 20,000 eggs or 10,000 kg milk)GWP 100, kg 100 year CO2 equiv.
Sheep meat 17400
Beef 15800
Milk 10600
Pig meat 6350
Eggs 5540
Poultry meat 4580
Eggs organic 7000
cage 5250
Poultry meat organic 6680
non organic 4570
Defra project report ISO205, 2006
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World poultry productionFuture challenges
nn Continued sophistication of the industryContinued sophistication of the industry
nn Shifting from production to valueShifting from production to value--addingadding
and marketingand marketingnn Meeting consumer preferences/tastesMeeting consumer preferences/tastes
nn Competition for consumer expenditure for otherCompetition for consumer expenditure for other
goods and servicesgoods and services
nn Innovation should meet health, ethics andInnovation should meet health, ethics andenvironmentenvironment
nn Science based developmentScience based development
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Future (in practice)nn Poultry meatPoultry meat
uu More further processed productsMore further processed products
nn EggsEggsuu In medical science (purification proteins)In medical science (purification proteins)
uu To deliver antibodies to prevent diseaseTo deliver antibodies to prevent disease
uu
Functional food (enriched eggs)Functional food (enriched eggs)uu Home replacement mealsHome replacement meals
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Synopsisnn Poultry meat and egg production andPoultry meat and egg production and
consumption are continuously increasing andconsumption are continuously increasing andhave a broad acceptabilityhave a broad acceptability
nn Nutrition value of poultry products is highNutrition value of poultry products is high
nn Food security and safety must be assuredFood security and safety must be assured
nn Free market and trade are importantFree market and trade are important
nn
Poultry diseases, environment, energy,Poultry diseases, environment, energy,product quality and animal welfare needproduct quality and animal welfare needattentionattention
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Thanks for your attention
[email protected]@wur.nl
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