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Daily Commodity Market Update as on Thursday, March 24, 2011
PRECIOUS METALS COMPLEX
NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG
GOLD 20928 21045 20897 21013 0.5
SILVER 54213 55543 54148 55498 2.17
GOLD 1438.25 1438.75 1435.8 1437.85 0.05
SILVER 37.36 37.37 37.17 37.27 -0.24
PLATINUM 1748.5 1751.99 1746.5 1751.49 0.2
Bullion ended higher re-approaching as the safe haven
appeal of the precious metal was boosted by ongoing
turmoil in the Middle East and renewed concerns over the
euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis.SPOT $
MCX
NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG
CRUDE 4719 4793 4719 4770 1.09
N.GAS 190.8 195 190.8 192.8 1.5
Crude oil rose as attacks on Israel, unrest in Yemen and
other the Middle East countries and falling gasoline stocks
in the United States lifted price. Natural gas were up
jumping to the highest price in seven weeks after
forecasts of below avera e s rin weather boosted
MCX
ENERGY COMPLEX
CRUDE 104.85 106.34 104.38 105.75 0.858369
NAME OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE % CNG
demand expectations for the heating fuel.
BASEMETAL COMPLEX
MCX
. . . . .
ZINC 104.95 108.35 104.95 108.15 3.37
NICKEL 1189.7 1208.7 1189.7 1206.2 1.59
LEAD 121.85 123.9 121.4 123.6 1.82
ALUMINIUM 115.8 117.3 115.7 117.15 1.24
COPPER 9720 9720 9670.25 9685 -0.62 -200
ZINC 2410 2410.5 2390 2398 -0.79 -275
COPPER
ZINC
434150
735750
Base meta s are en e ig er ami a roa rise across
global commodity markets as investor confidence
continues to recover.
LME STOCKLM E
. .
NICKEL 26800 2639 26750 26780 -0.26 -426
LEAD 2713 2747 2698 2705 -0.81 -150
ALUMINIUM 2637 2747 2621 2625 -0.23 -6475
SENSEX NIFTY NASDAQ S&P NYSE DOW JON NIKKEI SHICOM KOREA HKFE $ INDEX
18361.33 5524.5 2270.5 1297.54 8248.83 12086.02 9437.54 2951.25 2029.01 22998.79 75.98
GLOBAL MARKETS UPDATE
4594450
NICKEL
LEAD
ALUMINIUM
124038
286900
0.85 0.81 0.56 0.29 0.25 0.56 -0.13 0.09 0.84 0.77 0.25
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OPEN
20928
HIGH
F U T U R
E
% CNG
VOLUME
CLOSE
21013
0.5
21045
LOW
20897
Gold rallied b 0.50% settled at 21013 once a ain above 21000 mark re-a roachin an all-time
X
G O L D
INTRADAY LEVELS
25125
OI
RE CNG
105
9922
P.P. 20985
SUP 1 RES 1
20925 21073
SUP 2 RES 2
20837 21133
SUP 3 RES 3
20777 21221
.high as the safe haven appeal of the precious metal was boosted by ongoing turmoil in the Middle
East and renewed concerns over the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis. Earlier in the day, Yemen’s
parliament approved to impose a state-of-emergency in the country for 30 days, as clashes between
protestors and government forces escalated in an attempt to maintain pressure on President Ali
Abdullah Saleh, who warned that the country would slip into civil war if he was forced to resign. Now
gold is getting support at 20925 and below could see a test of 20837 level, and resistance is now
likely to be seen at 21073, a move above could see prices testing 21133.
M C
LOW
U R
E
54148
OPEN
54213
HIGH
55543
V E R F U
RE CNG
55498
% CNG
OI
16331
83345
2.17
VOLUME
P.P. 55063
SUP 1 RES 1
54583 55978
SUP 2 RES 2 M C X S
I
Silver for May delivery jumped almost by 2.17% and settled at 55498 level that is traded at a 31-
year high of $36.78 on fresh buying by speculators driven by a firm global trend. Also support from
worries over the euro zone debt crisis and unrest in the Middle East buoyed investors' interest in
bullion. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is currently indicating
1202
INTRADAY LEVELS
53668 56458
SUP 3 RES 3
53188 57373
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. , w ere as s a . an s ver s ra ng a ove e same an ge ng suppor a
54583 and below could see a test of 53668 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 55978, a
move above could see prices testing 56458.
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OPEN
4719
HIGH
F U T U R E 4793
LOW
4719CLOSE
4770
% CNG
1.09
VOLUME
C R U D E
148252
OI
16558
RE CNG
52
INTRADAY LEVELSCrude-oil pushed past $105 a barrel extending the previous session’s gains, as fighting in Libya and
P.P. 4761
SUP 1 RES 1
4728 4802
SUP 2 RES 2
4687 4835
SUP 3 RES 3
4654 4876
M C
antigovernment protests in the Middle East kept the risk of a supply shortfall on the front burner.
Crude oil inventories rose slightly more-than-expected in the week ending March 18, official data
showed on Wednesday. EIA said in its weekly report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose more-than-
expected in the week ended March 18, increasing by 2.1 million barrels, after rising by 1.7 million
barrels in the preceding week. Now technically market is trading in the range as RSI for 18days is
currently indicating 62.11, where as 50DMA is at 4472.44 and crude is trading above the same and
getting support at 4728 and below could see a test of 4687 level, And resistance is now likely to be
seen at 4802, a move above could see prices testing 4835.
T U R
EOPEN
430.9
HIGH
441.7LOW
430.9
P P E R F U 441.15
% CNG
2.5
VOLUME
107259
OI
21207
RE CNG
P.P. 437.9
SUP 1 RES 1
434.1 444.9
SUP 2 RES 2 M C X C
O
Copper yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 2.5% up at 441.15 shrugging off dismal
U.S. housing data and rallying in tandem with broader industrial commodity strength. The prospect
of reconstruction efforts in Japan following the country's largest-ever earthquake and subsequent
tsunami and nuclear crisis, against a backdrop of tightening supplies, continued to keep some base
metals buoyant, even as the economic impact from the disaster remained uncertain. Even an
11.05
INTRADAY LEVELS
427.1 448.7
SUP 3 RES 3
423.3 455.7
unexpec e a n . . new ome sa es o a recor ow n e ruary a e o rea e ac o
copper, which is used extensively in the industry for plumbing and electrical wiring. For today's
session market is looking to take support at 434.1, a break below could see a test of 427.1 and
where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 444.9, a move above could see prices testing 448.7.
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OPEN
104.95
HIGH
U T U R
E108.35
LOW
104.95CLOSE
108.15
% CNG
3.37
VOLUME
X
Z I N C
29980
OI
6037
RE CNG
3.65
INTRADAY LEVELSZinc yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 3.37% up at 108.15 as support seen
P.P. 107.2
SUP 1 RES 1
106.0 109.4
SUP 2 RES 2
103.8 110.6
SUP 3 RES 3
102.6 112.8
M C
a er new ome sa es or e ruary p unge y . o a recor ow annua ra e o250,000 units. The US dollar index rebounded to 75.9 from 75.4. But investors increased
purchases on speculations that metal demand from Japan for reconstruction will increase as a
result of the huge earthquake and nuclear crisis. LME zinc prices overnight rose by USD 43/mt
to close at USD 2,350/mt, above the 5-day moving average. In yesterday's trading session
zinc has touched the low of 104.95 after opening at 104.95, and finally settled at 108.15. For
today's session market is looking to take support at 106, a break below could see a test of
103.8 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 109.4, a move above could see
U R
EOPEN
1189.7
HIGH
1208.7LOW
1189.7
K E L F U 1206.2
% CNG
1.59
VOLUME
38109
OI
6706
RE CNG
P.P. 1202
SUP 1 RES 1
1194 1213
SUP 2 RES 2 M C X N
I
19.2
INTRADAY LEVELSNickel yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.59% up at 1206.2 tracking LME nickel
for delivery in three months opened at USD 26,350/mt and closed at USD 26,850/mt overnight, up
by USD 450/mt from a day earlier, with the highest price at USD 26,900/mt and the lowest price at
USD 26,349/mt. LME base metal largely ended with gains on Wednesday from market expectation
that metal demand will increase in the medium term, despite slight rebound of the US dollar.
-
1183 1221
SUP 3 RES 3
1175 1232
Page No. 4
rospec o cons ruc on- r ven eman w con nue en suppor or cer a n ase me a s. or
today's session market is looking to take support at 1194.4, a break below could see a test of
1182.5 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 1213.4, a move above could see prices
testing 1220.5.
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ROPEN
115.8
HIGH
U M F U
T117.3
LOW
115.7CLOSE
117.15
VOLUME
% CNG
1.24
L U M I N I
1.45
INTRADAY LEVELS
2005
RE CNG
Aluminium yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.24% up at 117.15 tracking LME
OI
6104
P.P. 116.7
SUP 1 RES 1
116.1 117.7
SUP 2 RES 2
115.1 118.3
SUP 3 RES 3
114.5 119.3 M C X
aluminum prices opened high and moved higher last night supported by rising energy prices and
market expectations of robust demand for base metals from post-earthquake reconstruction in
Japan, with prices opening higher at USD 2,618/mt and finally closing at a higher of USD 2,631/mt,
up USD 31/mt or 1.19% compared with the previous trading day. The US Commerce Department
announced on Wednesday that new home sales in February fell by 16.9% to an annual rate of
250,000, hitting a record low and lower than the forecast of 290,000. For today's session market is
looking to take support at 116.1, a break below could see a test of 115.1 and where as resistance is
now likely to be seen at 117.7, a move above could see prices testing 118.3.
195
190.8 T U R E
OPEN
190.8
HIGH
LOW
% CNG
192.8
. G A S
F1.5
7088
RE CNG
OI
VOLUME
23607
P.P. 192.9
SUP 1 RES 1
190.7 194.9
SUP 2 RES 2
C X N A
2.9
INTRADAY LEVELS
Natural gas yesterday traded with the positive node and settled 1.5% up at 192.8 jumping to the
highest price in seven weeks after forecasts of below average spring weather boosted demand
expectations for the heating fuel. Earlier in the day, industry weather group MDA Federal said that it
expected colder-than-normal temperatures from the Great Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast through April 1. Meanwhile, the Commodity Weather Group said in a report on Tuesday
that it forecast below normal temperatures in key gas-heating areas in the U.S. from March 27 to
188.7 197.1
SUP 3 RES 3
186.5 199.1
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April 2, while adding that “many areas of the Midwest and East could see late-season winter
weather” during the period. For today's session market is looking to take support at 190.7, a break
below could see a test of 188.7 and where as resistance is now likely to be seen at 194.9, a move
above could see prices testing 197.1.
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ACTIVE SPREAD UPDATE
DAILY SPREAD IN GOLD - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN SILVER - MCX
MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE AUG MONTH RATE MAY JULY SEPT
APRIL 21013 270 568 MAY 55498 603 1111
JUNE 21283 298 JULY 56101 508AUG 21581 SEPT 56609
Spread between Silver MAY & JUL contracts yesterday
ended at 603, we have seen yesterday that the silver
market had traded with a positive node and settled
2.17% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 559 -
607.
Spread between Gold APR & JUN contracts yesterday
ended at 270, we have seen yesterday that the gold
market had traded with a positive node and settled 0.5%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 262 - 274.
MONTH RATE APRIL MAY JUNE MONTH RATE APRIL JUNE
APRIL 4770 54 98 APRIL 441.15 5.35
MAY 4824 44 JUNE 446.5
JUNE 4868
DAILY SPREAD IN CRUDE - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN COPPER - MCX
Sprea etween copper APR & JUN contracts yester ay
ended at 5.35, we have seen yesterday that the copper
market had traded with a positive node and settled 2.5%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.3 - 6.25.
DAILY SPR EAD IN NI CKEL - MCX A R K E T
DAILY SPR EAD IN ZINC - MCX
Sprea etween cru e MAR & APR contracts yester ay
ended at 54, we have seen yesterday that the crude
market had traded with a positive node and settled 1.09%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 52 - 70.
MONTH MONTH
MARCH 108.15 1.15 MARCH 1206.2 8.7
APRIL 109.3 APRIL 1214.9
Spread between zinc MAR & APR contracts yesterday
ended at 1.15, we have seen yesterday that the zincmarket had traded with a positive node and settled 3.37%
up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 1.05 - 2.
Spread between nickel MAR & APR contracts yesterday
ended at 8.70, we have seen yesterday that the nickelmarket had traded with a positive node and settled
1.59% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 8.20 -
12.3. P R E A D
MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL MONTH RATE MARCH APRIL
MARCH 192.8 5.4 MARCH 1288 -207.4
APRIL 198.2 APRIL 1080.6
DAILY SPREAD IN NAT. GAS - MCX DAILY SPREAD IN MENTHOL - MCX
S read between natural as MAR & APR contracts S read between menthol oil MAR & APR contracts
yesterday ended at 5.40, we have seen yesterday that the
natural gas market had traded with a positive node and
settled 1.5% up. Spread yesterday traded in the range of 5.4 - 6.2.
yesterday ended at -207.40, we have seen yesterday that
the menthol oil market had traded with a negative node
and settled -0.9% down. Spread yesterday traded in therange of -232 to -196.6.
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DAY TIME CURRENCY Fo re cast P re viou s
1:30pm EUR 56.1 55.7 L
French Flash Manufacturing PMI
DATA
1:30pm EUR 59.6 59.7
2:00pm EUR 62.1 62.7
2:00pm EUR 58.5 58.62:30pm EUR 58.3 59
2:30pm EUR 56.4 56.8
Day 1 EUR 0 0
6:00pm USD 0.021 -0.03
6:00pm USD 388K 385K O N O M I
C
D A T A
German Flash Manufacturing PMI
German Flash Services PMIFlash Manufacturing PMI
Flash Services PMI
French Flash Services PMI
Thu EU Economic Summit
Core Durable Goods Orders m/ m
Unemployment Claims
6:00pm USD 0.012 0.032
8:00pm USD -11B -56B
0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0
E C Durable Goods Orders m/ m
Natural Gas Storage
0
0
The government will certainly not indulge in self congratulation for agriculture recording a growth of 5.4 per cent to
232.07 million tonnes in 2010-11 as this is happening on a low production base of 218.11 million tonnes last year
when the country experienced the worst south-west monsoon since 1972. In fact, the major concern of the
’
E
. .country will miss the four per cent annual growth for the sector during the eleventh plan by a long margin is not in
doubt. There is no way growth could be raised to 8.5 per cent next year to compensate for performance deficit in the
earlier years. The crisis in agriculture in the form of virtual stagnation in productivity and difficulty in commissioning
new unfarmed land finds expression in a table in the Economic Survey. The table on compound annual growth rate
basis shows that in 10 years to 2009-10, the area under rice shrank 0.03 per cent and production and productivity of
the cereal grew 1.59 per cent and 1.61 per cent, respectively. As for wheat, the area gain was 1.21 per cent, while
progress in production and productivity was 1.89 per cent and 0.68 per cent, respectively. Productivity gains have
plateaued raising concerns about food security. All this goes to show that the country now urgently needs a follow up
green revolution to the one of the 1960s which led to major breakthroughs in wheat and rice production. The next
C A
N
Ugreen revolution has to happen to chase the twin goals of food security and nutritional diet. Without the second
revolution, which can be postponed at the nation’s peril, the supply side’s response to growing demand for food will
Farmers with irrigated fields in Punjab and Haryana will start sowing cotton in a fortnight. Agriculture department
officials estimate a 10% to 15% increase in acreage this season as cotton has become more lucrative than paddy,
basmati and pulses. Government's paddy procuring agencies and basmati exporters don't think that the staple's
production will take a hit. According to the revised estimates by the Cotton Advisory Board on February 26 this year
for the cotton season 2010-11 acrea e was at 111.61 lakh hectare with an avera e ield 475.23 k er hectare and
W S Y O
- , . .
a production of 312 lakh bales. With wheat harvesting to begin in a fortnight across Punjab and Haryana, farmers are
preparing for sowing cotton. In major cotton-growing states of Gujarat and Maharashtra, sowing will begin after the
rainy season. "We are targeting to increase the area under cotton by 50,000-60,000 hectare this year covering 5.5-
5.6 lakh hectare. The government has been working to divert the cropping pattern from paddy to cotton with
depleting water table," said Punjab agriculture joint director Tarsem Singh. Production figures are expected to be at
25 lakh bales (one bale=170 kg) compared to 20 lakh bales in 2010. In Maharashtra, the area is expected to increase
by 10% this year. Sowing was done on 40 lakh hectare in 2010, of which irrigated farms constituted only 2% to 3%.
N
Indian overnight cash rates were almost steady on Wednesday as liquidity stayed tight following advance tax
outflows and demand for funds from banks was high. The one-day inter-bank cash rate was at 7.70/7.75, largely
unchanged from its previous close of 7.75/7.80. Liquidity scenario is still pretty tight. That is why you see the cash
rates holding up. This is the end of the financial year and there would be credit off-take taking place at the banks.
Cash supply has been strained since last week due to large advance tax outflows, roughly estimated to have been
around 500 billion-600 billion rupees, but is likely to improve in coming days as government spending kicks in.
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