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  • SESSION I

    Setting the scene: Migration trends and impacts

    Venue IFAD, Rome

    30 November – 2 December 2016

    Interregional workshop

    Collecting and using migration-related data for development: Cooperation and exchange in the European-African corridor

    Organizer

    UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs

  • 153 173 222 244

    375

    578

    469

    Global number of international migrants likely to increase

    International migrant stock, 1990-2050 (millions)

    1990 2000 2010

    2.9% 2.8%

    3.2%

    Proportion of international migrants in total population

    2015

    3.3%

    2050

    1990-2000 growth rate

    2000-2010 growth rate

    2010-2015 growth rate

    Source: UN/DESA, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant Stock: The 2015 revision

  • Asia and Europe host the largest numbers of migrants worldwide

    Number of international migrants by major area

    Middle income

    Nearly two thirds of all international migrants worldwide live in Europe or Asia

    5

    7

    15

    40

    49

    56

    8

    9

    21

    54

    75

    76

    0 20 40 60 80

    Oceania

    Latin Americaand the Caribbean

    Africa

    Northern America

    Asia

    Europe

    Number of migrants (millions)

    2015

    2000

    Between 2000 and 2015, Asia added more international migrants than any other major area

  • Nearly half of all international migrants worldwide were born in Asia

    Number of international migrants by major area of origin

    1

    3

    23

    26

    52

    68

    2

    4

    34

    37

    62

    104

    0 50 100 150

    Oceania

    Northern America

    Africa

    Latin America and the…

    Europe

    Asia

    Number of migrants (millions)

    2015

    2000

    Between 2000 and 2015, the size of the migrant stock from Asia grew faster than from all other major areas

  • 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

    Per

    cen

    tag

    e

    Total population

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    0-4 10-14 20-24 30-34 40-44 50-54 60-64 70-74

    Per

    cen

    tag

    e

    International migrants

    58% 72%

    Most migrants worldwide are of working age Total population and international migrants by age, 2015

  • Who is an international migrant? (UNDESA, 1998. Recommendation on statistics of international migration)

    Any person who changes her/his country

    of residence • Part of this definition:

    A move Minimum duration of stay

    • Not part of this definition:

    Reason (work, family, study, asylum, etc.) Legal status

  • The contribution of migration to population change – Africa and Europe compared

    -30

    -20

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    1950-1960

    1960-1970

    1970-1980

    1980-1990

    1990-2000

    2000-2010

    2010-2020

    2020-2030

    2030-2040

    2040-2050

    mill

    ions

    -10

    40

    90

    140

    190

    240

    290

    340

    390

    440

    490

    1950-1960

    1960-1970

    1970-1980

    1980-1990

    1990-2000

    2000-2010

    2010-2020

    2020-2030

    2030-2040

    2040-2050

    mill

    ions

    Total net population change

    Immigration-emigration Births-deaths

    Europe Slowing population

    decline (but not halting)

    Africa Reducing

    population growth (but little impact)

  • Demography: a powerful driver of migration

    Changes in working age population by major area, 2015 – 2050

    106%

    -12% -20%

    -8%

    5%

    29%

    138%

    10%

    -21%

    17% 9%

    37%

    Africa Asia Europe LatinAmerica and

    theCaribbean

    NorthernAmerica

    Oceania

    20-29

    20-59

    Source: UN, DESA, Population Division (2015). World Population Prospects: The 2015 Revision

  • Trends in global displacement

  • Source: UNHCR Statistical Yearbook 2014, Annex Table 26. Indicators of host country capacity and contributions, end-2014

    Uneven responsibility sharing for refugees Ratio of refugee population to gross domestic product per capita (PPPs)

    Under 0.1Between 0.1 and 1Between 1 and 15More than 15

  • Migration – some key benefits

    Remittances In 2014, migrants from developing countries sent home an

    estimated US $436 billion in remittances, far exceeding ODA Invested in human capital (health, education, sanitation,

    housing, infrastructure, etc.)

    Diaspora contributions to countries of origin Transfer of knowledge and skills, trade, FDI, etc. “Brain gain”

    Contribution to destination countries Filling labour market shortages Entrepreneurship, job creation Reducing old-age dependency ratios

  • Migration – some key challenges

    Some economic costs of migration Emigration of skilled persons (“brain drain”) Lack of portability of skills and diplomas (“brain waste”) High recruitment fees High costs of transferring remittances

    Some social costs of migration Migrant fatalities at borders Violations of human rights Trafficking in persons and smuggling of migrants Children left behind in the country of origin Etc.

  • Ratification of relevant instruments indicates key migration challenges

    Chart1

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    Refugee Convention 1951

    Refugee Protocol 1967

    Migrant Worker Convention 1990

    ILO Convention Migration for Employment 1949

    ILO Convention Migrant Workers 1975

    Human Trafficking Protocol 2000

    Migrant Smuggling Protocol 2000

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    Sheet1

    19501951195219531954195519561957195819591960196119621963196419651966196719681969197019711972197319741975197619771978197919801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011

    Refugee Convention 19511513162022222226313641464850525357596062636464676875758088909394949799100101102104110120122125127130131133136138141142142143144144144144144145

    Refugee Protocol 1967927364247515657586263707078868992939397100100102103105111120123126128131132134136138140142142143144144144144145146

    Migrant Worker Convention 199023689912151719242427343740414646

    ILO Convention Migration for Employment 1949126810111111111214151819222526282829292929292929303032333434343737373737373737383940404040404040414242424244464748494949

    ILO Convention Migrant Workers 1975268910111313141414141414151617171717171717181818181818222323232323

    Human Trafficking Protocol 2000421457795110115123131145147

    Migrant Smuggling Protocol 2000420406585104109116119128135

    ����SESSION I��Setting the scene: �Migration trends and impactsGlobal number of international migrants �likely to increaseAsia and Europe host the largest numbers of migrants worldwideSlide Number 4Slide Number 5Who is an international migrant?�(UNDESA, 1998. Recommendation on statistics of international migration) The contribution of migration to population change – Africa and Europe comparedDemography: a powerful driver �of migration�Changes in working age population by major area, 2015 – 2050Trends in global displacementSlide Number 10Migration – some key benefitsMigration – some key challengesRatification of relevant instruments indicates key migration challenges�