Sustainable
Unsustainable
Static
Strategic
Able to articulate and demonstrate a vital mission and ministry appropriate to the context
Lack resources to carry out their
mission
Have the resources(people, buildings, spiritual health, money)
To carry out their mission.
Mission
Resource
No clear mission to context.
Inward looking, maintenance focussed
-
-
+
+
Sustainable & Strategic Ministry Policy
10 Year Statistical Trends
The Current Reality
Summary235 parishes analysed in overview of congregational performance from 2000-2009
8% of congregations have experienced catastrophic decline in attendance in excess of 50%,
36% of congregations experienced alarming levels of decline in excess of 25%.
39% experienced a decline of less than 25%
17% experienced numeric growth.
Total average Sunday attendance declined 5,355 people from 28, 605 to 23,250.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
28605 2866327272 26568 25674 25528 24754 23716 23316 23250
58906 59254 58459
52368 5362851053 50633 49639
46704 47889
Diocese of Toronto, ASA and Easter Attendance 2000-2009Sunday Polynomial (Sunday) Easter Polynomial (Easter)
10 Year Statistical Trends - HR
Year Full-Time Clergy
2001 209
2002 215
2003 207
2004 199
2005 190
2006 187
2007 190
2008 184
2009 186
2010 179
Numerical Change
30
Percentage Change
14% decrease
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
9.7%
5.1%
3.2%
4.6%5.1%
2.8%
3.7% 3.7%4.6% 4.6%
2.8%
Retirement Projections Based on Eligibility
Year # % Est. Ordinations Est. Total Full-time
Already Retired 14 6.5%
2011 21 9.7% 11 169
2012 11 5.1% 6 164
2013 7 3.2%
2014 10 4.6%
2015 11 5.1%
2016 6 2.8%
2017 8 3.7%
2018 8 3.7%
2019 10 4.6%
2020 10 4.6%
2021 6 2.8%
2011-21 122 56.5%
More than half of Canadians in the 15-to-29 age cohort either have no religion or never attend a service of worship, says Statistics Canada.
Only 22 per cent say religion is very important to them, down from 34 per cent in 2002.
What growth there has been in religious participation has been due to immigration. Unfortunately for us, the current source countries for immigration are not predominantly Christian let alone Anglican.
Nanos Poll on Religion in Canada Globe and Mail, Fall 2010
Growth Full time planter to Mandarin Population New Church Plant underway in Ajax Internal church plant to “Urban Trend-
setters” downtown Intentional missional renewal/reboots at two
historic downtown parishes Reclustering/hub parishes in Trent-Durham Fresh Expressions/Reach Grants spawning Missional Transformation Process
(14 parishes, to 25 by 2013)
So, where’s the growth?
Decline Layering of age-cohort data over
congregational statistics has pointed out some further areas of concern:o Identified 11 congregations that are terminal,
continuous significant decline beyond likelihood of turnaround, unable to sustain ministry and plant
o 15 congregations in peril – significant continuing decline in ASA makes sustainability unlikely, concerning age profile with significant number of congregation over 65
Where is the greatest decline?
Eglinton -582
Scarborough-660
York Mills-420
Etobicoke-412
"Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas
anymore."
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