7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
1/12
Mil Enrbdq _dsmrqFrtad mil enrbdq mpdrvtssly qm ijfrdnvd tjldvv
naktvqedjqv mr `trqhdr aivrtsqimjv mfftr
9 KNJTN_Y ?3>6
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
2/12
?
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Frtad mil enrbdq
Ordjq frtad odgnj qhd ydnr vhnrsly highdr nq nrmtja!>>6-o mj qhd `irvq any m` qrnaijg, `mllmwijg nq ldnvqsnrqinl TV Fmjgrdvvimjnl ngrddedjq npdrqijg qhd
etfh `dnrda `ivfnl fli``* Ordjq frtad hnv oddjijfrdnvijg vqdnaily vijfd dnrly Adfdeodr onvda mjwiadvsrdna vtssmrq `rme rivijg d~tiqy enrbdqv nja`trqhdr SEI iesrmpdedjqv* @trqhdr, mjd ydnr Ordjqfrtad mil onfbwnranqimj hnv nlvm vqrdjgqhdjda,nssrdfinqijg qm 7*4$ `rme nrmtja 4$ mpdr qhd vnedsdrima, n shdjmedjmj m`qdj vigjnllijg njijfrdnvijgly qighq shyvifnl enrbdq* Hmwdpdr, qhdrdnrd jm mopimtv vigjv ydq qhnq qhiv will mfftr* Trnlvdxsmrqv vqnrqda ?3>6 vqrmjgly whild Jmrqh Vdn O@MDlmnaijgv nrd srmkdfqda qm ijfrdnvd oy mpdr >33 bo-aoy dnrly @dortnry* Ednjwhild, N`rifnj Wdvq Fmnvqfrtad vhisedjqv `mr @dortnry hnpd rdenijda tjvmla
whild Not Ahnoi hnv rdatfda `mretln srifdv qmdjvtrd vnldv m` iqv mwj frtad vhisedjqv* Jmrenllyshyvifnl adenja adfrdnvdv oy 3*4 eillimj onrrdlv nv^> srmgrdvvdv nja oy n `trqhdr 3*4 eillimj ij ^?*Fmjvd~tdjqly, tjadr jmrenl fmjaiqimjv n shyvifnllyqighqdr enrbdq wmtla od tjlibdly atrijg qhd jdxq vixemjqhv*
Ij ?3>?, MSDF rdsmrqda npdrngd srmatfqimj m` 6>*4 eo-afmesnrda wiqh adenja m` nrmtja 63 eo-a* Nlqhmtghglmonl mil adenja iv `mrdfnvq qm ijfrdnvd oy 3*8 eo-a qmnj npdrngd m` 93*4 eo-a (IDN) qhiv ydnr, wd dxsdfq lmwdr
adenja `mr MSDF mil atd qm ijfrdnvijg jmj%MSDF milmtqstq nja grmwijg MSDF srmatfqimj m` JGLv ("633bo-a)* Lnvq ydnr, MSDF mpdrsrmatfqimj wnv jdfdvvnry qmrdotila glmonl mil vqmfbv n`qdr Lioynj mil nfqipiqy fdnvda ij?3>>* Hmwdpdr, qhiv ydnr MSDF etvq fldnrly adfrdnvdmtqstq qm npmia n vtovqnjqinl rivd ij glmonl mil vqmfbv* Atdqm vdnvmjnl wdnbjdvv MSDF mpdrsrmatfqimj will odgrdnqdvq ij H>%>6, rd~tirijg Vntai Nrnoin qm rdvsmjaadfivipdly* Whild iq odgnj ftqqijg mtqstq ij Adfdeodr,`trqhdr rdatfqimjv nrd jddada*
M` fmtrvd, Eiaald Dnvq qdjvimjv will rdenij n wila fnra ij?3>6, nv qhdy hnpd `mr vdpdrnl ydnrv* Qhd Irnjinj jtfldnrviqtnqimj iv oy jm ednjv rdvmlpda wiqh vnjfqimjvdxsdfqda qm ijqdjvi`y ij @dortnry* Ftrrdjqly, Irnj vt``drv`rme n li~tiaiqy vhmrqngd, napdrvdly n``dfqijgenijqdjnjfd nja mil srmatfqimj ijpdvqedjqv* Ij naaiqimj,vijfd lnvq emjqh, srmoldev hnpd dvfnlnqda ij Irn~, qhdvdfmja lnrgdvq MSDF srmatfdr, wiqh ijfrdnvijg qdjvimjodqwddj qhd fmtjqryv Vtjji Etvlie eijmriqy (whifhvtssmrqv Vyrinj mssmviqimj qm qhd gmpdrjedjq m`Srdviadjq Nvvna) nja iqv rtlijg Vhin Etvlie enkmriqy(whifh vtssmrqv omqh qhd Vyrinj Srdviadjq nja qhdftrrdjq Irnjinj rdgied)* Fldnrly, qhdrd iv n rivb qhnq nfmjqijtda wmrvdjijg m` qhd viqtnqimj ij Vyrin eny
napdrvdly n``dfq Irn~i vqnoiliqy ij ?3>6*
(JYEDX-IFD, !-o, rmjq emjqh, anily flmvijg)
73
74
83
84
93
94
>33
>34
>>3
>>4
>?3
>?4
>63
knj%>>
`do%>>
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>
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JYEDXWQI
IFD Ordjq
(eo-a)
81,4
84,3
84,4
80,3
80,4
87,3
87,4
88,3
88,4
89,3
89,4
93,3
93,4
9>,3
9>,4
ktl%39
mbq%39
knj%>3
nsr%>3
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mbq%>3
knj%>>
nsr%>>
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knj%>?
nsr%>?
ktl%>?
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?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
?3>6
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; IDN, Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
?3>?
(eo-a)
_dpivimj
(bo-a)
?3>6
(eo-a)
_dpivimj
(bo-a)IDN 89*7 "73 93*4 ">>3DIN 89*>7 ">63 93*>> ">>3
MSDF 88*83 "-%3 89*47 %>3
(!-o) ^> ^? ^6 ^1 @tllYdnr
?3>6 >34 >34 >>3 >>3 >37*4?3>1 % % % % >>3*3?3>4 % % % % >>4*3
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
3/12
6
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Frtad mil
(JYEDX-IFD, !-o, rmjq emjqh, wddbly flmvijg) (JYEDX-IFD, $, anily flmvijg, :3; fmjqnjgm, 33>34>>3>>4>?3>?4>63
>64>13>14>43
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
?3>6
JYEDXWQI
IFD Ordjq
%>3
%8
%0
%1
%?
3
?
1
0
8
>3
>?
>1
>0
>8
knj%>>
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IFD Ordjq
JYEDXWQI
(IFD, !-o) (JYEDX, !-o)
9>9?969194909798
99>33>3>>3?>36>31>34>30>37>38>39>>3>>>>>?
`do%>6
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6
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6
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`do%>1
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1
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1
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4
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4
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`do%>0
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0
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0
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7
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7
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>?%>>%38
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84
80
87
88
89
93
9>
9?
96
91
94
`do%>6
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6
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6
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1
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1
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4
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4
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0
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0
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>?%>?%30
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(JYEDX, lmqv, `tqtrdv nja msqimjv, wddbly anqn) (anily flmvijg)
43333
>33333
>43333
?33333
?43333
633333
643333
133333
143333
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WQI eijtv OrdjqOrdjq eijtv AtoniOrdjq eijtv Trnlv
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
4/12
1
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Frtad mil
(AMD, eo, wddbly anqn) (eo, emjqhly anqn)
6>3
6?3
663
613
643
603
673
683
693
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4 ydnr npdrngd
?3>>
?3>?
f
?4?4
?443
?474
?033
?0?4
?043
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?733
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?833
?8?4
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4 ydnr rnjgd, qms
4 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
4 ydnr npdrngd
(eo, emjqhly anqn) (eo, emjqhly anqn)
9>3
9?3
963
913
943903
973
983
993
>333
>3>3
>3?3
>363
>313
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4 ydnr rnjgd, qms
4 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
4 ydnr npdrngd
>>74
>?33
>??4
>?43
>?74
>633
>6?4
>643
>674
>133
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4 ydnr rnjgd, qms
4 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
4 ydnr npdrngd
(eo, emjqhly anqn) (bo-a, emjqhly anqn)
674
683
684
693
694
133
134
1>3
1>4
1?3
1?4
163
164113
114
143
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4 ydnr rnjgd, qms
4 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
4 ydnr npdrngd
?1333
?4333
?0333
?7333
?8333
?9333
63333
6>333
6?333
66333
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
MSDF%>? srmatfqimj
MSDF%>> srmatfqimj
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, IDN, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
5/12
4
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Dtrmsdnj mil srmatfq enrbdqv
@mllmwijg n vtovqnjqinl adqdrimrnqimj ij ^1%>?,Dtrmsdnj rd`ijdry dfmjmeifv hnpd odgtj qhd JdwYdnr nq qhd vned adsrdvvda ldpdlv smvqda >? emjqhv
ngm, nv srdpnilda od`mrd Nqlnjqif onvij srmatfqenrbdqv odgnj qm qighqdj n`qdr dxfdvvipd njamovmldqd fnsnfiqy wnv vhtq amwj* Srmatfq vtsslyfmjfdrjv nja frnfbv sdnbda atrijg qhd rdfdjq srd%wijqdr enijqdjnjfd vdnvmj otq hnpd jmw dnvdan`qdr Nvinj nja Dtrmsdnj rd`ijdridv rdqtrjda qm srd%enijqdjnjfd nfqipiqy ldpdlv* Vqill, TV mtqngdv rdenijnompd jmrenl* Wiqh eiaald aivqillnqd frnfbv hnpijgnlrdnay `nlldj onfb vtovqnjqinlly nja `mrdfnvqdrvsrdaifqijg lmwdr Dtrmsdnj qdesdrnqtrdv nhdna,frnfbv lmmb libdly qm nq ldnvq vqnoili{d gmijg `mrwnra*Vijfd gnvmlijd nja `tdl mil frnfbv nlrdnay lmw,rd`ijdry dfmjmeifv will srmonoly omqqme ij >%>6*
Lighq djav; Ftrrdjqly, qhd jnshqhn frnfb iv qhd emvqptljdrnold snrq m` qhd onrrdl n`qdr jnshqhn vtaadjly lmvqiqv rdlnqipd srifd napnjqngd qm srmsnjd* Hmwdpdr,nroiqrngd fnrgmdv ldnpijg Dtrmsd, qighqdr ijpdjqmridv njavqill hdnlqhy sdqrmfhdeifnl ijatvqry adenja hnpd vm `nrlieiqda qhd adfrdnvd* Qhmtgh Dtrmsdnj gnvmlijdijpdjqmridv nrd vlighqly odlmw jmrenl, TV ijpdjqmridv nrdnq smvq eia%>993v highv* Jdpdrqhdldvv, wiqh adenja `mrDtrmsdnj gnvmlijd `rme mqhdr rdgimjv ijfltaijg WdvqN`rifn rdenijijg vqrmjg, dxsmrq `lmwv fmjqijtd qmvtssmrq qhd enrbdq* Wd vqill vdd liqqld amwjviad ij qhd
gnvmlijd frnfb `rme iqv ftrrdjq ldpdl*
Eiaald aivqillnqdv; Eiaald aivqillnqd frnfbv nrd jmwvhmwijg vigjv m` vqnoili{ijg n`qdr fmrrdfqijg lmwdr`mllmwijg n rdfmpdry ij rd`ijdry srmatfqimj ij ^1%>?*Ijpdjqmridv nrd vqill lmw, snrqiftlnrly `mr kdq `tdl nv rd`ijdrvhnpd `npmtrda aidvdl srmatfqimj tjqil `nirly rdfdjqly* Omqhenrbdqv nrd vhmwijg vigjv wdnb adenja, nlqhmtghrdlnqipdly vqrmjgdr adenja `mr kdq `tdl ij Nvin (nv pdry lmwqdesdrnqtrdv djfmtrngd rd`ijdrv qm `npmtr bdrmvdjdsrmatfqimj) iv ftrrdjqly aipdrqijg Eiaald Dnvqdrj onrrdlvdnvqwnra rnqhdr qhnj qm Dtrmsd* Nv n rdvtlq, qhd Dtrmsdnj
aidvdl pv* gnvmil srdeite hnv `nlldj onfb, nja srmonolyomqqmeda, whild iqv kdq `tdl fmtjqdrsnrq rdenijv high* TVaivqillnqd ijpdjqmridv nrd vqill pdry lmw otq hnpd oddjqrdjaijg onfb qmwnrav qhdir `ipd ydnr npdrngd vijfd qhdvdfmja hnl` m` ^1%>?*
Hdnpy djav; Qhd rnfd qm vtssly qighq eiaald aivqillnqdenrbdqv ij lnqd ?3>? nlvm `lmmada `tdl mil enrbdqv,ldnpijg Dtrmsdnj ijpdjqmridv sldjqi`tl nja frnfbvadsrdvvda wiqh liqqld `trqhdr amwjviad rdenijijg* OmqhDtrmsdnj nja Nvinj enrbdqv odgnj qhd ydnr vlighqlyvqrmjgdr, smvvioly atd qm rdvqmfbijg nhdna m` qhdFhijdvd Jdw Ydnr (@dortnry >3)* Ai``iftlq vhissijg
fmjaiqimjv nv n rdvtlq m` ifd fmtla anesdj Nvinj adenjavlighqly* HV nja LV frnfbv hnpd iesrmpda ij qnjade,ldnpijg qhd high%lmw vsrdna lnrgdly tjfhnjgda*
(!-q, anily flmvijg)
043
733
743
833
843
933
943
>333
>343
>>33
>>43
>?33
knj%>
>
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>
enr%>>
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6
Jnshqhn
Gnvmlijd
(!-q, anily flmvijg)
743
833
843
933
943
>333
>343
>>33
>>43
knj%>>
`do%>>
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>
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knj%>6
Kdq tdl
Aidvdl >3 sse
Gnvmil 3*>$
(!-q, anily flmvijg)
174
433
4?4
443
474
033
0?4
043
074
733
7?4
743
774
knj%>>
`do%>>
enr%>
>
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knj%>6
High vtlshtr tdl mil (6*4$)
Lmw vtlshtr tdl mil (>*3$)
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
6/12
0
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Mil srmatfqv
(AMD, eo, wddbly anqn) (JYEDX, -gnl, rmjq emjqh, anily flmvijg)
>>3
>?3
>63
>13
>43
>03
>73
>83
>93
?33
?>3??3
?63
?13
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
Gnvmlijd 4 ydnr npdrngd
Gnvmlijd ?3>?
Aivqillnqd tdl mil 4 ydnr npdrngd
Aivqillnqd tdl mil ?3>?
?63
?13
?43
?03
?73
?83
?93
633
6>3
6?3
663
613
643
603
knj%>>
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>
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knj%>6
Gnvmlijd
Hdnqijg mil
($, wddbly anqn) (!-q, anily flmvijg)
8>
8?
86
81
84
80
87
88
89
93
9>
9?
96
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
?337%?3>> npg*
?3>?
043
733
743
833
843
933
943
>333
>343
>>33
knj%>>
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3
>3
?3
63
13
43
03
73
83
93
>33
>>3IFD Gnvmil 3*>$ (ldq)
Kdq tdl srdeite (righq)Aidvdl >3 sse srdeite (righq)
(!-o, anily flmvijg) (!-q, anily flmvijg)
%?4
%?3
%>4
%>3
%4
3
4
>3
>4
?3
?4
63
64
knj%
>>
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>6
Jnshqhn GnvmlijdKdq tdl Gnvmil 3*>$Lmw vtlshtr tdl mil High vtlshtr tdl milAidvdl >3 sse
%>4%>3%434
>3>4?3?46364131443
4403047374
knj%>>
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nsr%>?
enk%>
?
ktj%>?
ktl%>?
ntg%>?
vds%>?
mbq%>?
jmp%>?
adf%>?
knj%>6
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
7/12
7
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Mil srmatfqv
(!-o, anily flmvijg) (bq, emjqhly anqn)
%0%1%?3?108
>3>?>1>0>8?3???1?0?8636?61
6068131?
knj%>>
`do%>>
enr%>
>
nsr%>
>
enk%>
>
ktj%>>
ktl%>>
ntg%>>
vds%>>
mbq%>
>
jmp%>
>
adf%>>
knj%>?
`do%>?
enr%>
?
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?
enk%>
?
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vds%>?
mbq%>
?
jmp%>
?
adf%>?
knj%>6
Nvin (Eijnv)TV (WQI)Dtrmsd (Ordjq)Sdrvinj Gtl (Atoni)
?3
63
13
43
03
73
83
93
>33
>>3
>?3
>63
>13>43
>03
>73
>83
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
1 ydnr rnjgd, qms
1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
1 ydnr npdrngd
(bq, emjqhly anqn) (bq, emjqhly anqn)
133
143
433
443
033
043
733
743
833
843
933
943
>333
>343
>>33
>>43
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
1 ydnr rnjgd, qms
1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
1 ydnr npdrngd
>33
>43
?33
?43
633643
133
143
433
443
033
043
733
743
833
843
933
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
1 ydnr rnjgd, qms
1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
1 ydnr npdrngd
(bq, emjqhly anqn) (bq, emjqhly anqn)
>333>>33>?33>633>133>433>033>733>833>933?333?>33??33?633?133?433?033?733?833?93363336>33
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
1 ydnr rnjgd, qms
1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
1 ydnr npdrngd133
143
433
443
033
043
733
743
833
843
933
943
>333
>343
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
1 ydnr rnjgd, qms
1 ydnr rnjgd, omqqme
?3>?
1 ydnr npdrngd
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, SKB Ijqdrjnqimjnl, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
8/12
8
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Mil srmatfqv
(AMD, eo-a, wddbly anqn) (AMD, eo-a, wddbly anqn)
>6,1
>6,0
>6,8
>1,3
>1,?
>1,1
>1,0
>1,8
>4,3
>4,?>4,1
>4,0
>4,8
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4y npg*
?3>>
?3>?
8,4
8,7
8,9
9,>
9,6
9,4
9,7
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4y npg*
?3>>
?3>?
(AMD, eo-a, wddbly anqn) (!-q, anily flmvijg)
1,3
1,?
1,1
1,0
1,8
4,3
4,?
4,1
4,0
k ` e n e k k n v m j a
4y npg*
?3>>
?3>?
%?3
%>0%>?
%8%1
3
1
8>?
>0
?3
?1?8
6?
60
13
11
knj%>>
`do%>>
enr%>
>
nsr%>>
enk%>
>
ktj%>>
ktl%>>
ntg%>
>
vds%>
>
mbq%>>
jmp%>>
adf%>
>
knj%>?
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?
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ktl%>?
ntg%>
?
vds%>
?
mbq%>?
jmp%>?
adf%>
?
knj%>6
(!-q, anily flmvijg)
%?4
%?3
%>4
%>3
%4
3
4
>3
>4
?3
knj%>>
`do%>
>
enr%>>
nsr%>>
enk%>
>
ktj%>>
ktl%>>
ntg%>>
vds%>>
mbq%>>
jmp%>
>
adf%>>
knj%>?
`do%>
?
enr%>?
nsr%>?
enk%>
?
ktj%>?
ktl%>?
ntg%>?
vds%>?
mbq%>?
jmp%>
?
adf%>?
knj%>6
Hdnqijg mil-Gnvmil
Kdq tdl-Bdrmvdjd
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
9/12
9
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
_dlnqda djdrgy enrbdqv
(JYEDX, !-EEOqt, rmjq emjqh, wddbly flmvijg) (IFD, rmjq emjqh, wddbly flmvijg)
>
?
6
1
4
0
7
8
9
>3
>>>?
>6
>1
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
6
1
4
0
7
8
9
>3
>>
>?
>6
>1
>4
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
>4
?3
?4
63
64
13
14
43
44
03
04
73
74
83
84!-EEOqt (ldq nxiv)
GOs-qhdre (righq nxiv)
(Jmra Smml, -EWh, rmjq ~tnrqdr, wddbly flmvijg) (DDX, -EWh, rmjq ~tnrqdr, wddbly flmvijg)
?3
?4
63
64
13
14
43
44
03
04
73
74
83
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
?3>6
?4
63
64
13
14
43
44
03
04
73
74
83
84
93
94
>33
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
(DFX IFD, -q, Adf* >>, wddbly flmvijg) (FI@ N_N vqdne fmnl, NSI&?, anily flmvijg)
4
7
9
>>
>6
>4
>7
>9
?>
?6
?4?7
?9
6>
66
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
73
74
83
84
93
94
>33
>34
>>3
>>4
>?3
>?4
>63
>64
knj%>
3
enr%>3
enk%>
3
ktl%>3
vds%>
3
jmp%>3
knj%>
>
enr%>>
enk%>
>
ktl%>>
vds%>
>
jmp%>>
knj%>
?
enr%>?
enk%>
?
ktl%>?
vds%>
?
jmp%>?
knj%>
6
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
10/12
>3
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
Enrbdq ijaifnqmrv
(wddbly flmvijg) (srifd ijadx, wddbly flmvijg)
033
733
833
933
>333
>>33
>?33
>633
>133
>433
>033
>733
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
833
933
>333
>>33
>?33
>633
>133
>433
>033
>733
>833
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
(emjqhly, SEIv :43 dxsnjvipd) (emjqhly anqn)
61
60
68
13
1?
11
10
18
43
4?
41
40
48
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
6?
61
60
6813
1?
11
10
18
43
4?
41
40
48
03
0?
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
TV
Dtrm{mjd
Fhijn_ddrdjfd
($, y-y, emjqhly anqn) (emjqhly, >33 fmrrdvsmjav qm lmjg qdre qrdja grmwqh ij ijatvqrinl srmatfqimj)
%??%?3%>8%>0%>1%>?%>3%8%0%1%?3?108
>3>?>1>0>8?3
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
TV
Dtrm{mjdFhijn
96
91
94
90
97
98
99
>33
>3>
>3?
>36
>31
?337
?338
?339
?3>3
?3>>
?3>?
Fhijn
Dtrm{mjd
MDFA
TVN
_ddrdjfd
Fhnrq Vmtrfdv; Olmmeodrg, MDFA, VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
11/12
>>
VDO Mil Enrbdq _dsmrq
FMEEMAIQY _DVDN_FH AIVFLNIED_
Qhiv vqnqdedjq n``dfqv ymtr righqvQhiv rdsmrq hnv oddj fmesilda oy VDOv Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh, n aipivimj wiqhij Vbnjaijnpivbn Djvbilan Onjbdj NO (stol) (VDO),
qm srmpiad onfbgrmtja ij`mrenqimj mjly* Iq iv fmj`iadjqinl qm qhd rdfisidjq, njy aivvdeijnqimj, aivqriotqimj, fmsyijg, mr mqhdr tvd m`qhiv fmeetjifnqimj iv vqrifqly srmhioiqda*
Gmma `niqh & lieiqnqimjvMsijimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja dvqienqdv fmjqnijda ij qhiv rdsmrq rdsrdvdjq qhd ntqhmrv srdvdjq msijimj nja nrd vtokdfq qm fhnjgdwiqhmtq jmqifd* Nlqhmtgh ij`mrenqimj fmjqnijda ij qhiv rdsmrq hnv oddj fmesilda ij gmma `niqh `rme vmtrfdv odlidpda qm od rdlinold,
jm rdsrdvdjqnqimj mr wnrrnjqy, dxsrdvvda mr ieslida, iv enad wiqh rdvsdfq qm iqv fmrrdfqjdvv, fmesldqdjdvv mr nfftrnfy m` qhdfmjqdjqv, nja qhd ij`mrenqimj iv jmq qm od rdlida tsmj nv ntqhmriqnqipd* Qm qhd dxqdjq sdreiqqda oy lnw, VDO nffdsqv jm linoiliqywhnqvmdpdr `mr njy airdfq mr fmjvd~tdjqinl lmvv nrivijg `rme tvd m` qhiv amftedjq mr iqv fmjqdjqv*
AivflmvtrdvQhd njnlyviv nja pnltnqimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja `mrdfnvqv fmjqnijda ij qhiv rdsmrq nrd onvda mj n jteodr m` nvvtesqimjv njadvqienqdv nja nrd vtokdfq qm fmjqijgdjfidv nja tjfdrqnijqidv2 ai``drdjq nvvtesqimjv fmtla rdvtlq ij enqdrinlly ai``drdjq rdvtlqv*Qhd ijfltvimj m` njy vtfh pnltnqimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja `mrdfnvqv ij qhiv rdsmrq vhmtla jmq od rdgnrada nv n rdsrdvdjqnqimj mr
wnrrnjqy oy mr mj odhnl` m` qhd VDO Grmts mr njy sdrvmj mr djqiqy wiqhij qhd VDO Grmts qhnq vtfh pnltnqimjv, srmkdfqimjv nja
`mrdfnvqv mr qhdir tjadrlyijg nvvtesqimjv nja dvqienqdv will od edq mr rdnli{da* Snvq sdr`mrenjfd iv jmq n rdlinold ijaifnqmr m``tqtrd sdr`mrenjfd* @mrdigj ftrrdjfy rnqdv m` dxfhnjgd eny napdrvdly n``dfq qhd pnltd, srifd mr ijfmed m` njy vdftriqy mr rdlnqdaijpdvqedjq edjqimjda ij qhiv rdsmrq* Qhiv amftedjq amdv jmq fmjvqiqtqd ijpdvqedjq napifd nja iv odijg srmpiada qm ymt wiqhmtq
rdgnra qm ymtr ijpdvqedjq mokdfqipdv mr firftevqnjfdv* Njymjd fmjviadrijg qnbijg nfqimjv onvda tsmj qhd fmjqdjq m` qhivamftedjq iv trgda qm onvd ijpdvqedjq adfivimjv tsmj vtfh ijpdvqignqimjv nv qhdy adde jdfdvvnry* Qhiv amftedjq amdv jmqfmjvqiqtqd nj m``dr mr nj ijpiqnqimj qm enbd nj m``dr, mr vmlifiqnqimj m`, njy m``dr qm vtovfriod `mr njy vdftriqidv mr mqhdr `ijnjfinl
ijvqrtedjqv*
Fmj`lifqv m` IjqdrdvqVDO hnv ij slnfd n Fmj`lifqv m` Ijqdrdvq Smlify advigjda, nemjgvq mqhdr qhijgv, qm srmemqd qhd ijadsdjadjfd nja mokdfqipiqy m`rdsmrqv srmatfda oy iqv _dvdnrfh adsnrqedjqv, whifh nrd vdsnrnqda `rme qhd rdvq m` VDO otvijdvv nrdnv oy ij`mrenqimj onrridrv2 nv
vtfh, rdvdnrfh rdsmrqv nrd ijadsdjadjq nja onvda vmldly mj stolifly npnilnold ij`mrenqimj* Ymtr nqqdjqimj iv arnwj qm qhd `nfq qhnqn edeodr m`, mr nj djqiqy nvvmfinqda wiqh, VDO mr iqv n``ilinqdv, m``ifdrv, airdfqmrv, deslmyddv mr vhnrdhmladrv m` vtfh edeodrv (n)
eny od rdsrdvdjqda mj qhd omnra m` airdfqmrv mr vieilnr vtsdrpivmry djqiqy m` qhd fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij (o) eny, qm qhddxqdjq sdreiqqda oy lnw, hnpd n smviqimj ij qhd vdftriqidv m` (mr msqimjv, wnrrnjqv mr righqv wiqh rdvsdfq qm, mr ijqdrdvq ij qhdvdftriqidv m` qhd fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij mr eny enbd n enrbdq mr nfq nv srijfisnl ij njy qrnjvnfqimjv ij vtfh vdftriqidv (f)
eny, nfqijg nv srijfisnl mr nv ngdjq, adnl ij ijpdvqedjqv ij mr wiqh fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij, nja (a) eny `rme qied qm qiedsrmpiad ijpdvqedjq onjbijg, tjadrwriqijg mr mqhdr vdrpifdv qm, mr vmlifiq ijpdvqedjq onjbijg, tjadrwriqijg mr mqhdr otvijdvv `rme
qhd fmesnjidv edjqimjda hdrdij*
_dfisidjqvIj qhd TB, qhiv rdsmrq iv airdfqda nq nja iv `mr aivqriotqimj mjly qm (I) sdrvmjv whm hnpd srm`dvvimjnl dxsdridjfd ij enqqdrv rdlnqijgqm ijpdvqedjqv `nllijg wiqhij Nrqifld >9(4) m` qhd @ijnjfinl Vdrpifdv nja Enrbdqv Nfq ?333 (@ijnjfinl Srmemqimj) Mradr ?334 (Qhd
Mradr) mr (II) high jdq wmrqh djqiqidv `nllijg wiqhij Nrqifld 19(?)(n) qm (a) m` qhd Mradr (nll vtfh sdrvmjv qmgdqhdr odijg rd`drrda qmnv rdldpnjq sdrvmjv* Qhiv rdsmrq etvq jmq od nfqda mj mr rdlida tsmj oy sdrvmjv ij qhd TB whm nrd jmq rdldpnjq sdrvmjv* Ij qhd
TV, qhiv rdsmrq iv aivqriotqda vmldly qm sdrvmjv whm ~tnli`y nv enkmr T*V* ijvqiqtqimjnl ijpdvqmrv nv ad`ijda ij _tld >4n%0 tjadr qhd
Vdftriqidv nja Dxfhnjgd Nfq m` >961* T*V* sdrvmjv wivhijg qm d``dfq qrnjvnfqimjv ij njy vdftriqy aivftvvda hdrdij vhmtla am vm oyfmjqnfqijg Vbnjaijnpivbn Djvbilan Onjbdj NO (stol) (VDONO)* VDONO nffdsqv rdvsmjvioiliqy `mr qhd fmjqdjq m` qhiv rdsmrq ij
fmjjdfqimj wiqh iqv aivqriotqimj ij qhd TV* Qhd aivqriotqimj m` qhiv amftedjq eny od rdvqrifqda ij fdrqnij ktrivaifqimjv oy lnw, njasdrvmjv ijqm whmvd smvvdvvimj qhiv amftedjqv fmedv vhmtla ij`mre qhdevdlpdv nomtq, nja movdrpd, njy vtfh rdvqrifqimjv*
Qhd VDO Grmts; edeodrv, edeodrvhisv nja rdgtlnqmrv
Vbnjaijnpivbn Djvbilan Onjbdj NO (stol) iv ijfmrsmrnqda ij Vwdadj, nv n Lieiqda Linoiliqy Fmesnjy* Iq iv rdgtlnqda oy@ijnjvijvsdbqimjdj, nja oy qhd lmfnl `ijnjfinl rdgtlnqmrv ij dnfh m` qhd ktrivaifqimjv ij whifh iq hnv ornjfhdv mr vtoviainridv,ijfltaijg ij qhd TB, oy qhd @ijnjfinl Vdrpifdv Ntqhmriqy2 Adjenrb oy @ijnjvqilvyjdq2 @ijlnja oy @ijnjvvipnlpmjqn2 Gdrenjyoy Otjadvnjvqnlq `r @ijnj{aidjvqldivqtjgvnt`vifhq nja Jmrwny oy @ijnjvqilvyjdq* Ij qhd TV, VDONO iv n T*V* ormbdr%adnldr,rdgivqdrda wiqh qhd @ijnjfinl Ijatvqry _dgtlnqmry Ntqhmriqy (@IJ_N)* VDONO iv n airdfq vtoviainry m` VDO* VDO iv nfqipd mjenkmr Jmraif nja mqhdr Dtrmsdnj _dgtlnqda Enrbdqv nja Etlqilnqdrnl Qrnaijg @nfiliqidv, ij nv wdll nv mqhdr jmj%Dtrmsdnjd~tipnldjq enrbdqv, `mr qrnaijg ij `ijnjfinl ijvqrtedjqv* @mr n livq m` dxdftqimj pdjtdv m` whifh VDO iv n edeodr mr
snrqifisnjq, piviq hqqs;--www*vdo*vd*
7/30/2019 SEBs Oil Market Report: Crude oil market oversupply to increase
12/12
www*vdo*vd
VDO Fmeemaiqy _dvdnrfh
Oknrjd Vfhidlarms, Fhid` Fmeemaiqy Njnlyvqoknrjd*vfhidlarmsCvdo*jm
"17 9?18 9?63
@ilis Sdqdrvvmj, Fmeemaiqy Vqrnqdgivq`ilis*sdqdrvvmjCvdo*vd
"10 8 430 ?63 17
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