8/14/2019 SEB Commodities Monthly March 2010
1/20
March 2, 2010
Commodity Research: Bjarne Schieldrop (Head) [email protected] +47 92 48 92 30, Filip [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47
Commodities Monthly
Nordic hydro power deficit, a challenge for industrial recovery=
General Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The early 2010 commodity price slump ended in February with
the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price index rising 3.9% OECD leading indicators continued to improve in all key areas
except China and India Fears of Chinese monetary tightening eased after CPI rose less
than expected The USD is set to remain strong on EU sovereign debt worries
Energy Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M Brent continued to trade between $70-80/b in February IEA revised 2010 crude oil demand 170 kb/d higher to 86.5 mb/d The Iranian nuclear crisis escalated significantly in February
Sustained crude oil rallies above $80/b are unlikely due to ahealthy supply situation
Record high Nordic power spot prices on low temperatures incombination with nuclear power plant outages and a weak hydrobalance, prices are likely to remain high
A global cap & trade agreement on greenhouse gas emissionspost 2012 is becoming more and more unlikely
Industrial Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The industrial metals sector was the strongest in February with
the UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Price Index rising 5.9% LME warehouse inventories are currently at 5-year highs LME cancelled warrants are beginning to pick up, a positive sign
of end user demand The sector retains significant downside risk if OECD demand
does not materialise
Precious Metals Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The IMF will sell 191.3 tonnes of gold on the open market The strong dollar environment is challenging for precious metals EU sovereign debt worries offer a substantial upside risk in gold
Greece has until March 16 to devise a plan to cut public spendingAgriculture Forecast: 0-3 M , 4-6 M , 7-12 M The US Department of Agriculture expects wheat and soybean
production to decrease and corn production to be flat during the10/11 crop season while wheat and corn stocks are forecast tofall and soybeans stocks to rise
Sugar prices have fallen by around 20% although the biggestsugar deficit is expected in Q3
Cotton prices are at 23-month highs due to strong industrialdemand
Arrows indicate the expected price change during the period in question.
THE NEXT SEB COMMODITIES MONTHLY WILL BE RELEASED ONAPRIL 9 DUE TO EASTER HOLIDAYS
N=
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Sector Indices(price indices, weekly closing, January 2009 = 100)=
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
jan-0
9
feb
-09
mar-
09
apr-
09
ma
j-09
jun-0
9
jul-09
aug-0
9
sep-0
9
okt-09
nov-0
9
dec-0
9
jan-1
0
feb
-10
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy
Agriculture
Performance overview(MSCI World, UBS Bloomberg CMCI Price Indices)
-6
-4
-2
0
24
6
Equities
Commodities
Energy
Industrial
metals
Precious
metals
Agriculture
YTD (%) MoM (%)
Winners & Losers last month(closing prices, %)=
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Sugar
Cocoa
USNaturalGas
Power,Continental
Coffe,
ArabicaTin
EmissionRights(EUA)
Silver
Platinum
Aluminium
Gold
Zinc
Soybeans
Palladium
Corn
USHeatingOil
Copper
Wheat
Lead
Steel,Mediterranean
Brent
USGasoline
WTI
Nickel
Power,Nordic
Cotton
c
=`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
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SEB Commodity Research
GENERAL=
q= r_p= _= `j`f= m= f== = c~I= = == PKVB= K= _= = == ~=~= E= RKVBF=~= =
E= QKVBFK= m= ~= ~= ~~=~= E= PKNB= ~= NKOB= FK=q== ~= = = ~=I=~====~=~=~= ~= = = g~~= = ===~==~=TBK==q==~==~==== = ~= ~= = ~= = ~=`= ~= = I= =~~=d= = == ~==~= = rp= ~= = = ~=
~K=eI=====~=c~= = = mjf= ~~I=~=~=~===== d= ~= ~= ~= `=~= ~= = = = ~==~==K==`I=d=~==j~=NS===~= ~= = = = K= `~I= = =~= = = = = I= == = ===== ~K=^I== = = ~= p~I= m~=
~=f~=~====~=dI==~=====~==~=bjr==~=~==~=~==~=======~=dK= f= ~= ~I= d= ~= ===~=I=~=~=~== = ~= = ~=~= = ~~= I= = =~= = = = ~= ~= =~K=t==~=~=p~=~== I= = ~= ~= = = ===K==t=`~=g~~=`mf==~==ENKRB= K= = OKMBF= = ~=~=====~=~=~K= _~= = = ~= =g~~==~=~=~=~==`kv=NQSMK= j~I= = = = =~= = v~= = ~~= = m=l~~===~=~===K=j~===~=RJNMB=~~=== = OMNMI= = = ~= ~= ~== = = = = `=== ~= =~= = =
~K==
lb`a= = ~=~= == = = ~= ~= ~~= = aI===f~=~=`~====K=q=~==~===== = = = = ~K=p= = ~= = = ~===~=~=~~==K=p=~==~=~===I== ~= = = = = =~K= eI= = = = dOM===~===~====~= ==== ===~===K==q=~====~==~=== b~= = = =
= = = K= f= ~I= = c= ======~==~== b`_I= ~= ~=b===~=~===~=~K=t=~~===~====~=~==~= = OMNM= ~= ~= ~= ~=~====~=~=~==K==
US Dollar Index(weekly closing)=
71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
8991
93
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
N
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ENERGY==
`====~==ATMJUML== c~K= _= = = = =~= ATSL= ~= = = = ~= rp=~~= EfpjF= ~== ~=
~=~=~===^=OMMQI=~===~K=^==~=I==~==~====~== = K= eI= _= =~~==~==ATML===~== K= bro= = = =b= = = = ~= ~=d= =~~K=a= = = ~========~==~==~==~=~=~==d=~=~==~=~=~=K= c~~I=====
==~==c~K==f= = ~= l= j~= o= Ec~= NNF==f~~=b=^=Efb^F==OMNM=~=~=~===NTM=L== =~=== fjc= = ~====~=USKR=L=K=UQKV=L==OMMVK=b~=`==~=~=~== UKV= L= ~= ~= = NMB= fjc= =~= = `~K= q= = = = =~==OMNM======== = lb`aK= c= ~I= = = rp==~= = ~= = = = = OP=~I===== ==~= =K=d~======QR=L==g~~=K=aK=a==~=I=lmb`= ~= = = SNB= = RUBK=lb`a=====STKU==EOKRBF==OSTU===a== ~= ==~=== ~~=U== =RN==~=~==~==ON===TR=I===~=c~=K=aK===a=c~I==rp=a~==b==~I=====UKR==
=PPTKR=K=a~====PKV===NROKT===~====PKM= = =OPNKO=K= q=~= ==~=~~=~K==q=f~~=~==~===== = ~~= ~= = f^b = = ~== = = = ~~= ==~==~==~=f~=I==~=I= = ~= ~= ~~= =K=q==~===~=~==t~==q~K=eI=`~=
~===f~=~=~=~=~===~=rk==~~=
~K=f==I=f~===== = = ~= = = ~= ~=~K=`I===~=f~=~=~=~=======~K= pI= = rp= ~= ~= ~= = =~=~====~===~==f~~=K===^= = I= ~= ~= lmb`== ~~= E= ~= SKR= I=~==~=TKRB==~=F=~=~= ~= ~= = = ~=~= ~= = = = = ~=K= f= = = = ~= ~= ~== == =~K=`====~===~=====
= ATMJUML= ~= ~= = = = = =K= cI= _m= = = =~=~=====~=== = ~= = ~== =====~~=K=b=~=~== ~= = ~= ~I= ~= ==~===~~=~=lb`a=====~==pK=cI==~===J===~====~=~=== ~= ~J= ~~K=q========
~= = = = ~= ~===~===K=q=~I= = = ~= ~= = = =~==~=~==`~=E~==^~= F== = ~= NO===~= ~= ~= K= c~== = ~= ~= ~= = ==~=~== ~~K= q= ~I== ~= ~= = = = = ==~==OMMV=====b=k=~I=~=~=====~=~== ~== ~=~K= f= =
~===~===I======~=~J===K=q======== ~= = = rp= = ~===~=~=~==~== ~= = ~=~= = =~=~K=t===== = = = ~~= ~= = =~=~=~==~===~=~K==t===~==~=~==~=lmb`===s~==j~=NT=~==~= = lmb = = ~= = ASRJURLK=
O
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SEB Commodity Research
=q~= ~~= Ec~= OSFW= q= ~== J~= = ~= ~= ~=====~======ATMJURL=~K==
c=
=
a= = ~= = ~= = c~I== ~= = = = K= q= ~=~===~===~===~= ~= ~= = = = I=~= = = = = =~~~= ~== = ~= = ~K=q=~===~=~===`== = = = = ==~=~~=E~~=~=~==F== = = = = = ~K= q~=
~= = ~= = c~= ~= ===~=OMMV=~=~=OMNMK=t====~=~=~===~==== = = = = ~= == ~= = = E= J~=~F=~=~=~=lb`a==~= = ~= E~= ~= ==~=FK==
Freight Indices(BFX, weekly closing, January 2002 = 100)=
0100200300400500600700800900
100011001200
130014001500
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500Baltic Dry Index (left axis)
Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (right axis)
Baltic Clean Tanker Index (right axis)
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~==
k=m=
=
c~=~==~===== = = = = ~= ~= =~=~=~=~K=^== ~= = ~= = = = ~=~= ~= ~~= = = =~K= q~= = = p= ~== ~= ~= = ~= ~= = =~K=q== ~~=~=~===~=~=====JQM=qtI=~=NM= qt= = ~= = = QK= q= = =
==~=====~===OMMOK=e~=~==p~~~=~=
~= = ~~= ~= = == ~~K=q= k= = =~===~=~==p=qpl=Eq~=l~F=p~=h~=~== = = = = = = = = ~== =~= == ~~== ==
= = = = = = = == = = = ~K= o~= =~= ===~=~=~= = ~I= = = ~=~= = ~= = ~=~= = = = = == = = ~= = ~K= t=~= = ~= ~=~= ~= ~= == = = = = = = ~= =~= ==~= ~= ~= = ~I=~= ~= ~= = ~=~= = ~= ~= =
K==q= = ~= = ~= ~== = = ~= = =~==K=m== ~= ===c~= OO= = ~= = = = bro=NPQKUMLjt== =p=~~== =bro=RMRKSULjt=E=====~===~=~=~=~FK=q==~===~==I=~==~K=i=~=~===~===~==~=
~==~=~====~=LK==
Nordic spot price and hydro balance(Weekly Average)=
-50-40-30-20-10
0102030405060708090
100110
2000-W1
2000-W26
2000-W51
2001-W23
2001-W48
2002-W21
2002-W46
2003-W19
2003-W44
2004-W17
2004-W42
2005-W15
2005-W40
2006-W13
2006-W38
2007-W10
2007-W35
2008-W08
2008-W33
2009-W06
2009-W31
2010-W03
Nordic spot price (/MWh)
Nordic hydro balance (TWh)
`~= W= _I= m= `~I= pb_= `=o~==
q= = = = c~= ~~= bro=SUKVOLjt=E=bro=NRKRQLjtF=K=g~~=bro= RPIPULjtK=q=k= = ~========~~===~==~I=~===
~=====~==~~K=^=====c~I=nOJNM=~=~=bro=RRKSMLjt= E= bro= TKPRLjt= LF= ~=
P
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`~JNM= ~= bro= QOKNMLjt= E= bro=NKORLjt= LFK= t= = = = =~= ~= = ~= = = ====~==p=~==~= ~K=q= =~== =~=== = = == = =
=K==
`lO
==
q= e~~~= ~= = = = = =OMPRI= = k~= ~= = = = ==== ~=^~= =====~===K=o=~==~==fm``=OMMT=~==== ~= = = ~~I= o~~=m~~I==~==========~~K=f==
I= ~~K= q= ~= =~~=~======== K= f=~= =rp=I=PQB= =~= ~= ~= = = ~= = ~=~==QTB==~=~====~K=q==~====OMMU=== ==K= q= ~= = ~== = = ~= ~= ===h===NVVTI===~=~==~====`~==aK==f= rp= = = ~= ~= ~=
= K= q= = = ~= = =~= = ~=b~=h= ~= =p=_==g~~K=q==~==NR=c~==~=_~=~I=~==Q==~===~I=~====== J= = kK= f= = =~==~==~==== ~= ~= = = k= I==~=~~===rp=~=C=~=== ~= = = ~= = ~K= ^== = = = = I= =~=~=~=~= ~= ~=rp=~=C=~= ~= = = = ~K= q= rp=b~= m= ^= Ebm^F= =~==I====rp=p=`I==~=`lO==~===~~K=eI= ~= = bm^= = = =~=~~K=^===~=~==~= ~= = = bm^= = = ~==~K=^== = ~= ~=~======bm^===ded=K==l= = = ~= ~~I= br= ~=I= `= e~~I= ~= ~=
~==~=~=~=======p=^~=~====OMNNK=
q= = = = = = =`~I=j==a=OMNMK=t=~=C=~= = = ~= = = rp= ~= `~==~=~=~===I=~= = ~= ~= C= ~= ~= ~=~~= = = h= ~= = OMMUJNOI=
=~=K=q=~==v= = _I= = = = rKkK= c~=`= = `~= `~= ErKkK= c```F===`~= ~I= =~=~====~=~=_K=p=~=~=======~==~=~=~== = = ~I= ~= ~== = J= ~= = ~== ~= = = = =K= o~= I= ==~= ~= =~= = ========
o~= m= p~~= =~K==f==~===~==b~=~=~I==br=bqpI=~=========br==~== = h= = = = = ~=K=^= ~= =br^W= == br= bqp=~=~~=~==~==~== ^^rW= E= h= ~~= FK= b== b= ~= ~= = ~~== = h= I= = = = =
= = = h= ~= = =~= ~= C= ~= ~= = = ~= OMNOK=q=== `lO= = = =~= ~====~=~=~===~==I= ~= = ~=K=f=====~=~=~=C=~== ~= OMNOI= = = = = ~= =b~= ~= = = b~== ~= = = ~= = ~=K=q==~~==~=~===========~==~=~=~=~~=K==
b==b~===~=~===OMNP===I==~=====br^WK=q=~==== ~= = = = = OMNP= =OMOM== E= = = = = ~~= FI=b~= ~= = ~= = = ~= == = ~= ~== = = p~=~====rp=E~=~==~=~= = = br^WF= ~= = ~=~=~===K==q= br^= = ~= ~= ~J~=
= NOKQRL= ~= NQKMQL= = c~I=====~=NPKMMLK=
Q
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CRUDE OIL=
Crude oil price(NYMEX/ICE, $/b, front month, weekly closing)=
102030405060708090
100110120130
140150
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX WTI
ICE Brent
=
US crude oil stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
300
310
320
330
340
350
360
370
380
j f m a m j j a s o n d
2005-2009 avg.
2009
2010
OIL PRODUCTS=Gasoline and heating oil prices(NYMEX, /gal, front month, weekly closing)=
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
NYMEX Gasoline
NYMEX Heating oil
=
Gasoline and distillate stocks(DOE, mb, weekly data)=
110
120
130140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
j f m a m j j a s o n d
Gasoline 2005-2009 avg.
Gasoline 2010
Distillate fuel oil 2004-2008 avg.
Distillate fuel oil 2010
=
POWER=
Nordic power price(Nord Pool, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Continental power price(EEX, /MWh, front quarter, weekly closing)=
20253035404550556065707580859095
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
R
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CO2 NATURAL GAS=
EUA price(ECX ICE, /t, Dec. 10, weekly closing)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
US natural gas prices(NYMEX, $/MMBtu, front month, weekly closing)=
0123456789
101112
131415
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
FUTURES CURVES=WTI(NYMEX, $/b)=
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
apr-
10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-1
1
apr-
11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-1
2
apr-
12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-1
3
apr-
13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-1
4
apr-
14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
Brent(ICE, $/b)=
7072
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
apr-
10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-1
1
apr-
11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-1
2
apr-
12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-1
3
apr-
13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-1
4
apr-
14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
Gasoline(NYMEX, /gal)=
190
195
200
205
210
215
220
225
230
235
apr-
10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-1
1
apr-
11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-1
2
apr-
12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-1
3
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
US natural gas(NYMEX, $/MMBtu)=
4,5
5,0
5,5
6,0
6,5
7,0
7,5
8,0
mar-
10
jul-10
nov-1
0
mar-
11
jul-11
nov-1
1
mar-
12
jul-12
nov-1
2
mar-
13
jul-13
nov-1
3
mar-
14
jul-14
nov-1
4
mar-
15
jul-15
nov-1
5
mar-
16
jul-16
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
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=INDUSTRIAL METALS==
`=
f~= ~= = = =c~= ~= ~= = = =`~=~==~==`=k=v~== = ~= ~= =
= mjfK= q= = = =~==E=NQKRBF===~=~== = E= MKRB= ~= = OKTB=FK=i~I==~===SKVBI=QKMB=~=SKSBK=K=
=
`= = = rpa= SOSPJTQNTL= =c~I= = = = = ~= rpa=TNTRLK= ijb= = = = =c~= = ~= ~~= ~=E= QKUBFK=^= == ~=~= ~= ~=~== =~=~======= ~= = = =~~I= = = = = ~= =====K=l~I===~= ~= ~~= ~= = ~K= q~=~~= Ec~= OSFW= `= ~= == I= ~= = = ~I=~= = = ~= = = ~= K=
m= = ~= = rpa= SVRML= ===~K=m==rpa=TRMML==~==~===rpa=TUMMK=
=ijb= ~= = = = = == ~= ~= J~= K= d= ~== ~= = = ~= = =~= ~= ~= = `~= ~=~I= = ~= OMNM= = ~=~I=~==K=^====mjf=
~~=~======~=~== = = = `= ~=====~==~K== =f= = = I= ~= ~= = == ~= = = K=eI= = = = = = =I= ~= `= ~= =lb`a=~====K=e= == ~= =~~=====~=~=~=~==K=f~===~=
= = = === ~~===~=K=
k=
=
k= = = rpa= NSVUQJONNNPL= =c~I= = = = = ~= rpa=ONNNPLK= ijb= = = = =c~= = ~= = = = ~=~= ~~= ~= = ~=E= OKRBFK= i~= = = `~~~=
= =~==k===c~====~==~~== = = = OMNMK= q= == = ~~~= ~= =c~= ~= = = ~= =~K=q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW =q== ~= = ~= = ~= =~= = ^= OMMV= = = rpa= ONOORLK= ^==~~=~=~=~==== ~= J= NSOB= = = ~=rpa=OPRRRL=~==========K=c====~===~=OMMU=SOBW= ~= OMMT= = ~= rpa= OQVMMLK= f~== = = = = rpa= NVUSMJNVUVML= K=_=rpa=NTMMML====~K=
=
^=
=
^= = = rpa= NVROJONOTL==c~I= = == = ~=rpa=ONMULK= ijb= = ~= ~== == = ~=~~== = ~= E= SKTBFK=b~= I= ~= = ~== = ~~= = = ~=~==~====~K=eI= = ~= ~= = = ~=~=====TRB==ijb== = = = ~~= ~K= q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW=d=~=====E~=====~==~=~=FK=m==rpa=OMTNL== ~= = = = = =rpa= OMOML= = I= = I= == = ~= = ~= = = rpa=NVTMLK=
=w
==
w= = = rpa= NVONJOPQTL= =c~I= = = = = ~= rpa=ONTRLK= ijb= = = ~== = = ~= ~= ~~=~= = E= MKSBFK= w= =~= = ~= = ~= K=eI=~==~=~==~=~=
==~=~=~~=~==OMNMK=q~= ~~= Ec~= OSFW= q= ~=
=
T
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~= ~= = ~= = = ~== ~~= = ~= ~= ~~= J~===g~~=~K=p===rpa=ONMML= ~= = = = ~= = = rpa=NVPUL=~=~=OMMULMV=RMBW=~=rpa=NUVMLK==
p=
=
ijb=j~~====rpa=QNPJQQSL= = c~I= = = == ~= rpa= QQSLK= l= = ~= I=ijb= c~= b~= = = =rpa= QNRJQQRLI=====~=rpa=QQRLK=f= = = ~= = = = =K= f= `~I= = = = = = = ===PJR=~====~= = = ~= = ~= ~=~~K= `I= `~= =
= = = = = =~== = = = = = =~==~~K=p===~==== = OMNM= = = = K= q=~= = ~= = ~= =~= = = = ~= ~~= = ======~K=`=~=~=====~=====~=~=K=p=~===~=~I==~== = = = ~K= `I== ~= ~= ~= I=
KK= = o~I= = = = QMB= = =~==~=b~=K==
U
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ALUMINIUM=
Aluminium price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
1250
1500
1750
2000
2250
2500
2750
3000
3250
3500
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Aluminium stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
==
COPPER=Copper price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Copper stocks(LME/COMEX/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
COMEX
LME
NICKEL=
Nickel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Nickel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
V
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ZINC=
Zinc price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Zinc stocks(LME/SHF, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SHFE
LME
=
LEAD=Lead price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Lead stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
25000
50000
75000
100000
125000
150000
175000
200000
225000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
TIN=
Tin price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Tin stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
NM
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STEEL=
Steel price(LME, $/t, front month, weekly closing)=
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
dec-0
8
feb
-09
apr-
09
jun-0
9
aug-0
9
okt-09
dec-0
9
feb
-10
LME Mediterranean
LME Far East
=
Steel stocks(LME, tonnes, weekly data)=
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
jul-08
sep-0
8
nov-0
8
jan-0
9
mar-
09
ma
j-09
jul-09
sep-0
9
nov-0
9
jan-1
0
LME Far East
LME Mediterranean
=
FUTURES CURVES=
Aluminium(LME, $/t)=
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
apr-
10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-1
1
apr-
11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-1
2
apr-
12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-1
3
apr-
13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-1
4
apr-
14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
Copper(LME, $/t)=
640065006600
6700
68006900
70007100
72007300
74007500
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
==
Nickel(LME, $/t)=
18000
18500
19000
19500
20000
20500
21000
21500
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
10-01-2910-02-19
10-02-26
=
Zinc(LME, $/t)=
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
2350
2400
2450
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~
NN
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=PRECIOUS METALS==
a= ~= = = = ==~=I==~=== = = = = ~=K= q= = = =
~= c~= = ~= ~= ~~== ~= = d= = = =K= m~~= = =====~=~K=a= = = = = ~= == K= = = = ~= ~=K=
`I== ==== =~= =~= I= = = ==K=f=~I==~=====~==~=~~====d==~=~=~=~=====K= `= = I= == ~I= ==~= = ~=~= ~= = ~= = = ~== ~= ~= = = = ~= ~======K==
= q~= ~~I= = Ec~= OSFW= d=~~=====~===~=J=~==K=m=~=rpa=NNSNL====~===~=~===~= rpa= NOOSLK= m= = rpa= NMUPJ
NMUUL===~==~K=
q=fjc=~====~==~=~===~=NVNKP======~= ~= QMPKP= K= i~= ~I= f~I= p=i~~= ~= j~= = ~= ~= = OMO=
= = ~K= q= fjc= ~= =~~= ~= ~= = = ~~= ~== = = ~= ~= ~== = ~= ~= = = ~= ~=~==~K=
==
Gold and selected currencies vs. USD
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
GOLD EUR JPY GBP SEK RUB
YTD (%) MoM (%)
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
=^= = =t=d=`= Etd`FI==~===NNB=L==OMMVK=q==~= = = ~= ~= f=EHTBFK= fI= = = ~= `== = = = ~==~=~K=q===~==
= = ~= = `~K= a= == = = ~= = = =td`= = = ~= = ~== = OMNMK= f~= ~= =~= = ~= = ~= ~= =K=
=m~~= ~= ~= ~= = = == = = = = =K=q==~=~==== ~= = J= = = ~= = =~= = ~= = = = = ~=~= = ~K= c= ~I=`~= = = = ~= ~= =g~~==NKSS=====rp=~== = = K= p== = ~= = = = ~===~K==f~= = = ~= =~==~==K=fI==fjc= ~= ~= = ~= = ~===~====~=~==K=a=~=~=~== =~= ~= = I= = =
==K==
NO
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GOLD=
Gold price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Gold to oil & gold to LME Index ratios(front month, weekly closing)=
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6Gold to oil ratio (left axis)
Gold to LME Index ratio (right axis)
=
SILVER PLATINUM / PALLADIUM=
Silver price(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
2
46
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Platinum and palladium prices(COMEX, $/ozt, front month, weekly closing)=
100
300
500
700
900
1100
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
300
550
800
1050
1300
1550
1800
2050
2300Palladium (left ax is)
Platinum (right axis)
==
FUTURES CURVES=
Gold(COMEX, $/ozt)=
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
1300
apr-10
jul-10
okt-10
jan-11
apr-11
jul-11
okt-11
jan-12
apr-12
jul-12
okt-12
jan-13
apr-13
jul-13
okt-13
jan-14
apr-14
jul-14
okt-14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
Silver(COMEX, $/ozt)
16,00
16,25
16,50
16,75
17,00
17,25
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
dec-12
mar-13
jun-13
sep-13
dec-13
mar-14
jun-14
sep-14
dec-14
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~=
NP
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AGRICULTURE=
q= ~= = EI= ~= ~= ~F== = = c~= = ==I===~===== = ~= ~=
~= = ~= = = ~= = =K=eI==~====~= ~= ~~= ~= =c~K===a= = = = rpa^=^~= l= c= = ~===~====rp=OMNMLOMNN== ~K= t~= ~~I= = ~== ~= = = = K= `== = = = ~= ~= =~=~~=~==~=
= = = = ~= ~~= ==~K=p~=~~=~==~= = = = = =~~==~=~==~=~======~K==q=_~~=~=~==K=a== ~= = ~= = ~I== ~= ~= ~~= OMB= ==~K=eI= == ~== === = =~=nPI= = = =_~~= ~= ~K= `= ~= ~= ~=
OPJ=====rp=~~=~~=~===~K=a= ~=~====I==~~=====~=K=q==~===~==K==b= k= ~= ~= ~= ~== = ~= = = == K= ^= = = ~=~= = = = = ==~~===K=f=~=== = = = ~=~= = = =~= = ==~===~=====~= ~= ~= I= KK= = = = ~=~K==`
==
`===PROJPTUL==c~I== = = = ~= PTULK=a=t^pab= Et= ^~= p= ~=~= b~I= c~= VF= ~= == ~= = ~= = NKPU= == = = ~= MVLNMI= = = =
= = OKNR= = = = K=k=~=========~=
= = = = ~= = = MVLNMK=eI= = p= ^~= ==~=~===~=== ~~K=eI== = =
= = ~= I= ~= = =~=~=~K=^===~== rp= ~= = ~= E= ~=~= = ~= ~= =rp=~== = = F= = NMB= = NRB= == = K= q~= ~~=Ec~=OSFW =q=======~== = = K= m= = PRPL== = I= ~= = ~= = =PQTLI= = = = = = = ~= ~=~= ~= = = PMML= ~~== ==~K=
=t~
==
t~= = = QSVJRMSL= =c~I=====~=RMSLK=t^pab= ~= ~= = ~==~==NKPN=====~=MVLNMK=b= = = ~= = ~= == MKOS==== K=p== ~~= = = ~= = ~== =~= = = ~===== ~===
K=q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW=f~== = ~= = = = = = = == = g~~K= q= ~= = = ~=~===K=t= = === = = = ~= ~= = = = ~= ==QORLK==
p~=
=
p~= = = VMUJVSRL= =c~I=====~=VRNLK=t^pab= ~= ~= = ~==~==NKSQ=====~=MVLNMK=b= = = = = MKMT= = == K= ^= ~= = == = = ~= = = ~= ~==p=^~==~=~J==rp= ~~I= ~= = = = =~= = = = K= q=~= = = = ~= ~= ~==~========c~K=q~=~~=Ec~=OSFW= q==~==~==~==~===E~==a=~=~FK=^===~= = =VPOL==== = ~=
=~==VMML=~K==
NQ
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=
CORN=
Corn price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Corn ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
==
WHEAT=
Wheat price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
200300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Wheat ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
4060
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
SOYBEANS=
Soybean price(CBOT, /bu, front month, weekly closing)=
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Soybean ending stocks(USDA, yearly data updated monthly)=
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01
01/02
02/03
03/04
04/05
05/06
06/07
07/08
08/09
09/10
mt
days of supply
NR
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=
SUGAR COFFEE=
Sugar price(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
=
Coffee price (Arabica)(NYBOT, /lb, front month, weekly closing)=
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
==
=FUTURES CURVES=
Corn(CBOT, /bu)=
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
Wheat(CBOT, /bu)=
450
500
550
600
650
700
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
Soybeans(CBOT, /bu)=
900
910
920
930
940
950
960
970
980
mar-10
jun-10
sep-10
dec-10
mar-11
jun-11
sep-11
dec-11
mar-12
jun-12
sep-12
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
=
Sugar(CBOT, /lb)=
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
maj-10
aug-10
nov-10
feb-11
maj-11
aug-11
nov-11
feb-12
maj-12
aug-12
nov-12
feb-13
10-01-29
10-02-19
10-02-26
===
`~=W=_I=pb_=`=o~I=rpa^=
NS
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=
COMMODITY RELATED ECONOMIC INDICATORS==
EUROZONE Current Date Previous Date Next
Industrial production (%, YoY) -4,8 2009-12-31 -6,8 2009-11-30 2010-03-12
Industrial production (%, MoM) -1,6 2009-12-31 1,4 2009-11-30 2010-03-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 72,4 2010-03-31 71,0 2009-12-31
Manufacturing PMI54,2 2010-02-28 52,4 2010-01-31 2010-03-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) -2,1 2009-12-31 -4,0 2009-09-30 2010-03-04
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 0,1 2009-12-31 0,4 2009-09-30 2010-03-04
CPI (%, YoY) 1,0 2010-01-31 0,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-16
CPI (%, MoM) -0,8 2010-01-31 0,3 2009-12-31 2010-03-16
Consumer confidence -17,0 2010-02-28 -16,0 2010-01-31 2010-03-22
USA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 0,9 2010-01-31 -2,2 2009-12-31
Industrial production (%, MoM) 0,9 2010-01-31 0,7 2009-12-31 2010-03-15
Capacity utilization (%) 72,6 2010-01-31 71,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-15
Manufacturing PMI 58,4 2010-01-31 54,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 0,1 2009-12-31 -2,6 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, saar) 5,9 2009-12-31 2,2 2009-09-30 2010-03-26
CPI (%, MoM) 2,6 2010-01-31 2,7 2009-12-31 2010-03-18
CPI (%, MoM, sa) 0,2 2010-01-31 0,2 2009-12-31 2010-03-18
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,4 2010-01-31 101,5 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence (Michigan) 73,6 2010-02-28 74,4 2010-01-31 2010-03-12
Nonfarm payrolls (net change, sa, 000) -20 2010-01-31 -150 2009-12-31 2010-03-05
JAPAN
Industrial production (%, YoY, nsa) 18,2 2010-01-31 5,1 2009-12-31 2010-03-12
Industrial production (%, MoM, sa) 2,5 2010-01-31 1,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-12
Capacity utilization (%, sa) 84,3 2009-12-31 83,1 2009-11-30
Manufacturing PMI 52,5 2010-02-28 52,5 2010-01-31
Real GDP (%, YoY, nsa) -0,4 2009-12-31 -5,2 2009-09-30
Real GDP (%, QoQ, sa) 1,1 2009-12-31 2009-09-30 2010-03-11
CPI (%, YoY) -1,8 2010-02-28 -2,1 2010-01-31 2010-03-26
CPI (%, MoM) -0,2 2010-01-31 -0,2 2009-12-31
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 102,5 2010-01-31 102,1 2009-12-31
Consumer confidence 39,4 2010-01-31 37,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-15
CHINA
Industrial production (%, YoY) 18,5 2009-12-31 19,2 2009-11-30 2010-03-11
Manufacturing PMI 52,0 2010-02-28 55,8 2010-01-31 2010-03-01
Real GDP (%, YoY) 10,7 2009-12-31 9,1 2009-09-30 2010-04-15
CPI (%, YoY) 1,5 2010-01-31 1,9 2009-12-31 2010-03-11
OECD Composite Leading Indicator 103,1 2009-12-31 103,2 2009-11-30
Consumer confidence 103,9 2009-12-31 103,3 2009-11-30
Bank lending (%, YoY) 29,3 2010-01-31 31,7 2009-12-31
Fixed asset investment (%, YoY) 30,1 2009-12-31 33,4 2009-09-30
OTHER
OECD Area Comp. Leading Indicator 103,1 2009-12-31 102,2 2009-11-30
Global manufacturing PMI 56,1 2010-01-31 54,6 2009-12-31
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research=
NT
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=PERFORMANCE==
Monthlyclosing(100226)
YTD(%)
1 m(%)
1 q(%)
1 y(%)
5 y(%)
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (TR) 1110,94 -5,5 3,7 -1,5 35,7 63,1
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (ER) 1046,82 -5,6 3,7 -1,5 35,5 41,8
UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index (PI) 1284,53 -5,2 3,9 -0,5 46,9 84,8
UBS B. CMCI Energy Index (PI) 1285,96 -5,2 4,9 -0,7 47,9 52,6UBS B. CMCI Industrial Metals Index (PI) 1062,71 -5,0 5,9 4,2 84,2 90,5
UBS B. CMCI Precious Metals Index (PI) 1617,41 -1,0 3,1 -6,2 20,3 151,7
UBS B. CMCI Agriculture Index (PI) 1353,68 -7,4 1,2 -4,9 21,9 85,1
Baltic Dry Index 2738,00 -12,8 -3,9 -29,6 40,4 -42,6
Crude Oil (NYMEX, WTI, $/b) 79,66 -2,3 9,3 3,1 76,2 54,7
Crude Oil (ICE, Brent, $/b) 77,59 -3,2 8,6 -1,1 66,8 56,4
Aluminum (LME, $/t) 2108,00 -5,8 2,7 3,6 57,8 10,5
Copper (LME, $/t) 7175,00 -4,0 6,6 3,9 106,4 117,3
Nickel (LME, $/t) 21113,00 11,5 14,5 29,1 111,2 30,6
Zinc (LME, $/t) 2174,50 -14,6 4,0 -5,4 94,2 58,8
Steel (LME, Far East, $/t) 445,00 6,0 4,5 -10,1 53,4
Steel (LME, Mediterranean, $/t) 445,50 9,3 8,4 15,6 45,1
Gold (COMEX, $/ozt) 1118,90 0,1 3,3 -5,3 18,7 156,6Corn (CBOT, /bu) 378,00 -9,7 6,0 -6,1 4,4 78,7
Wheat (CBOT, /bu) 506,50 -9,2 6,9 -10,7 -1,5 56,7
Soybeans (CBOT, /bu) 951,00 -9,4 4,0 -10,3 9,4 59,2
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
MAJOR UPCOMMING COMMODITY EVENTS==
Date Source
Department of Energy, US inventory data Wednesdays, 16:30 CET www.eia.doe.gov
American Petroleum Institute, US inventory data Tuesdays, 22:30 CET www.api.org
International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report March 12 www.oilmarketreport.com
OPEC, Oil Market Report March 10 www.opec.org
US Department of Agriculture, Crop Progress Mondays, 22.00 CET www.usda.gov
US Department of Agriculture, WASDE/WAP March 10 www.usda.gov
International Grains Council, Grain Market Report March 25 www.igc.org.uk
OPEC ordinary meeting, Vienna, Austria March 17 www.opec.org
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research
=
CONTACT LIST, SEB COMMODITIES==
Position E-mail Phone Mobile
Mikael Nordstrm Head of Commodities [email protected] +46 8 506 230 26 +46 70 293 00 12
RESEARCH
Bjarne Schieldrop Chief Analyst [email protected] +47 22 82 72 53 +47 92 48 92 30
Filip Petersson Commodity Strategist [email protected] +46 8 506 230 47 +46 70 996 08 84
SALES
Arne Boberg Head of Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 50 +46 70 699 99 67Charlotte Aleblad Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 233 91 +46 76 037 91 10
Magnus Wallenbert Corporate Sales [email protected] +46 8 506 230 24 +46 76 213 33 40
TRADING
Stefan Fastesson Head of Trading [email protected] +46 8 506 230 13 +46 73 850 13 30
Mats Forsell Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 14 +46 70 496 20 82
Mats Hedberg Trader [email protected] +46 8 506 230 15 +46 70 462 29 78
Karin Almgren Broker [email protected] +46 8 506 230 51 +46 73 642 31 76
Christian Ekstrand Quantitative Analyst [email protected] +46 8 506 230 40 +46 70 763 91 95
Source: Bloomberg, SEB Commodity Research==
NU
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]8/14/2019 SEB Commodities Monthly March 2010
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