SCENARI DI CAMBIAMENTO CLIMATICO
IN ITALIA E NEL MEDITERRANEO
"Stato delle conoscenze riguardo ai cambiamenti climatici in Italia”Ministero dell'ambiente sala Europa, 27 Febbraio 2012, Roma
Silvio Gualdi, CMCC
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Who we are
• An Italian research center on climate science and policy
• A network of Italian public and private research institutions
• Funded by the Italian Ministries MIUR, MATTM and MEF
• Within the framework of the National Research Plan
Partners:
• INGV - National Institute on Geophisics and Vulcanology
• UNISA - University of Salento
• UNISANNIO - University of Sannio
• CIRA - Italian Center for Spatial Research
• FEEM - Enrico Mattei ENI Foundation
• UV - University “Ca Foscari” of Venice
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Associated Centers:
• CNR - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche - Dipartimento Terra Ambiente
• University of Tuscia
• IAMB - Istituto Agronomico Mediterraneo di Bari
• CRMPA - Centro di Ricerca in Matematica Pura e Applicata
• University of Sassari
• Consorzio SPACI
• OGS - Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale18
Who we are
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Network
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Activities
Numerical Numerical SimulationsSimulations
Agricultural Agricultural Impacts:Impacts:ForestsForests
Agricultural Agricultural Impacts:Impacts:
CropsCrops
Impacts:Impacts:Energy and Energy and
EconomyEconomy
Impacts:Impacts:HealthHealth
Impacts:Impacts:Mediterranean Mediterranean
SeaSea
Numerical
MethodsSoftware
Development
Impacts:Impacts:The Coastal ZoneThe Coastal Zone
Climate Research
1. Previsioni Climatiche: scale (intra-)stagionali - multiannuali
2. Proiezioni di Cambiamento Climatico: breve (decennali) e lungo (centennali) termine
3. Info-Clima: interazione con gli stakeholders e utilizzatori
4. Relazioni Istituzionali & Politiche di adattamento
� Produzione di previsioni climatiche e proiezioni di cambiamento climatico e della comunicazione dei risultati e delle informazioni ottenute a diverse tipologie di utilizzatori (decisori e portatori d’interesse dall’industria, organismi politici pubblici e di pianificazione e infine scienziati e ricercatori di altre discipline)
Divisione di Servizi Climatici (SERC)
� Le previsioni climatiche e le proiezioni di cambiamento climatico sono basate sui modelli del CMCC, globali e regionali ad alta risoluzione.
� Ricerca nell’ambito delle politiche di adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici eattività di supporto tecnico-scientifico alle istituzioni nei processi di negoziazioni multilaterali nel campo dei cambiamenti climatici (EU, IPCC, UNFCCC).
4 Gruppi:
SERC DirectorS. Gualdi
Climate ChangeProjections
S. Gualdi
Division ManagerL. Amato
AssistantI. Mazzocco M. Galisi
Climate PredictionsA. Bellucci
Info-ClimateA. Lanza
P. Athanasiadis
A. Borrelli
S. Materia
E. Banos A. Sanna S. Medri
S. Venturini
L. Reda
E. Scoccimarro
M. Zampieri
F. Massari
System and Numerical Support
Institutional Relations& Adaptation Policies
S. Castellari
SERC Organization Chart
The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration)
Land Surface
SILVA(Alessandri 2006)
AtmosphereECHAM5
(from 200-to-80 km)(Roeckner et al 1996, 2003)
Global Ocean
OPA 8.2 (ORCA2)(Madec et al, 1998)
Sea IceLIM (ORCA2)(Timmerman et al, 2005)
CouplerOASIS3
(Valcke et al, 2000)
Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment
Marine Bio-Geochemistry
PELAGOSVichi et al. 2007
Med SeaNEMO-MFS
(~6.7 km)Oddo et al. (2009)
The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration)
AtmosphereECHAM5
(from 200-to-80 km)(Roeckner et al 1996, 2003)
Global Ocean
OPA 8.2 (ORCA2)(Madec et al, 1998)
CouplerOASIS3
(Valcke et al, 2000)
Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment
PHYSICAL CORE
CMCC-CM
Fogli et al. (2010)Scoccimarro et al. (2011)
The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration)
Land Surface
SILVA(Alessandri 2006)
AtmosphereECHAM5
(from 200-to-80 km)(Roeckner et al 1996, 2003)
Global Ocean
OPA 8.2 (ORCA2)(Madec et al, 1998)
Sea IceLIM (ORCA2)(Timmerman et al, 2005)
CouplerOASIS3
(Valcke et al, 2000)
Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment
Marine Bio-Geochemistry
PELAGOSVichi et al. 2007
CARBON CYCLE
CMCC-CESM
Vichi et al. (2011)
The CMCC Climate Model (CMIP5 configuration)
AtmosphereECHAM5
(from 200-to-80 km)(Roeckner et al 1996, 2003)
Global Ocean
OPA 8.2 (ORCA2)(Madec et al, 1998)
CouplerOASIS3
(Valcke et al, 2000)
Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment
Med SeaNEMO-MFS
(~6.7 km)Oddo et al. (2009)
FOCUS ON THE MEDITERRANE
AN REGION
CMCC-CMED
Gualdi et al. (2011)
The CMCC Climate Model
Land Surface
SILVA(Alessandri 2006)
AtmosphereECHAM5
(from 200-to-80 km)(Roeckner et al 1996, 2003)
Global Ocean
OPA 8.2 (ORCA2)(Madec et al, 1998)
Sea IceLIM (ORCA2)(Timmerman et al, 2005)
CouplerOASIS3
(Valcke et al, 2000)
Coupling Daily (or higher frequency) & no flux adjustment
Ocean initial conditions from spin-up or from CMCC analyses
Atmospheric I.C. from AMIP-type
runs or from Re-analyses (ERA)
Initialization (off-line)
Marine Bio-Geochemistry
PELAGOSVichi et al. 2007
Med SeaNEMO-MFS
(~6.7 km)Oddo et al. (2009)
Climate simulations: explore the mechanisms that drive the climate variability and climate change. Process oriented investigations on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
Climate projections: assess the climate change signal according to prescribed scenarios of radiative forcing. Generally long simulations starting from spin-up initial conditions. Identification of long-term trends and of changes in the statistics of parameters of interest.
Short-term projections: assess the climate variations due to both the internal variability and changes in the external forcings. Ensembles of short-term (~10-to-30 years) projections, but initialized with observed conditions (specific start date). Change in the statistics of parameters of interest.
How do we use our climate model?
Seasonal predictions: assess the climate variations mostly due to the internal variability of the climate system. 6-to-12 month simulations initialized with observed conditions (specific start date). Prediction of possible anomalous conditions in the “current statistics” (current climate).
10*(
°C/d
ecad
e)T2m trend 2001-2050 DJF
T2m trend 2001-2050 JJA
(mm
/day
)/de
cade
Prec trend 2001-2050 DJF
Prec trend 2001-2050 JJA
Deviation of the global mean surface temperature(wrt 1840-70 mean)
T2m and Precipitation
projected trends
Future Climate Change Projections
2000 203519601965 1970 1990 2005 …1985 203020101975 1980 1995 2015 2020
30-year hindcast/forecast simulations grouped into3-members ensembles, for different start dates
• CMCC CGCM (ECHAM5+OPA/LIM) • CMIP5 GHG & aerosol RF• RCP4.5 scenario (2005 onward)• solar variability• ocean init.: from ODA products
RCP4.5
Short Term Projections (Decadal Predictions)
Short-term fluctuations due to both natural variability and anthropogenic radiative forcing
Observ
North Atlantic annual-mean SST
Time series of SSTA in the North Atlantic [0-60N;50W-10W] Hindcast for 5-prediction years and Observations (5-year running mean)
Some predictive skill is evident when 5-yrs slices out of each hindcast simulation are retained
Short Term Projections (Decadal Predictions)
Downscaling
LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM
From Global
To Local
• Horizontal resolution: 14 km• Vertical resolution: 40 levels• Non-hydorstatic
Orography From Global
To Local
• Horizontal resolution: 8 km• Vertical resolution: 40 levels• Non-hydorstatic
LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM
Downscaling
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From Global
To Local
• Horizontal resolution: 2.7 km• Vertical resolution: 40 levels• Non-hydorstatic
LIMITED AREA MODEL: COSMO-CLM
Downscaling
# Simulation CMCC-CESMEarth sys-model
CMCC-CMSstratosphere
CMCC-CM
3.1 Pre-industrial control X X X3.2 Historical (1850-2005) X X X3.3 AMIP (1978-2008) X X4.1 RCP4.5 (2006-2100) X4.2 RCP8.5 (2006-2100) X X X6.1 Idealized + 1% CO2/yr X X1.2 Decadal predictions (1960-2035) X X
Preindustrial (pre-1850) : 300 years
Historical (1850-2005): 156 years
21st Century scenario RCP4.5: 96 years
21st Century scenario RCP8.5: 96 years
1%/year CO2 increase (up to 4xCO2): 140 years
Summary
GRAZIE
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