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Protect Your BusinessThis Hurricane Season
Gerry Bell, Ph. D., NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center
Bob Boyd , President & CEO, Agility Recovery For copies of the slides presented during todays session,
please visit:
http://agil.me/sba2013hurricaneprep
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Agenda
Dr. Gerry Bell1. NOAAs 2013 hurricane season outlooks
Bob Boyd2. Preparing YOUR Organization3. Lessons Learned
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Dr. Gerry BellNOAA Climate Prediction Center
Lead Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecaster at the NOAA Climate
Prediction Center His research led to the establishment of NOAAs seasonal Atlantic
hurricane outlooks in 1998 Specializes in monitoring global climate variability, especially patterns
related to the El Nio, the multi decadal cycle, and other large scale atmospheric processes.
Published multiple times, appeared on many major broadcast networks, and given many lectures on tropical weather
Received the prestigious NOAA 2005 Isaac Klein Award for his leading role in developing NOAAs seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks.
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NOAAs Hurricane Season Outlooks
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricanewww.climate.gov/news features/videos
Gerry Bell, Ph. D., NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane
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1. Features of NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
2. NOAAs 2013 hurricane season outlooks
3. The Atlantic hurricane season outlook
4. Recipe for a hurricane5. Science behind NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
6. Hurricane landfalls
7. Summary
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NOAAs Seasonal Outlook Regions
1. Features of NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
Atlantic BasinStorm Tracks 1980 2005
Central and Eastern North Pacific Storm Tracks 1980 2005
Central Pacific Eastern Pacific
Images Courtesy of Wikipedia
NOAA issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic basin, the central North Pacific, and the eastern North Pacific.
Main Development Region
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1. Features of NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
Features of NOAAs Hurricane Season Outlooks
Active/ inactive seasons often result from coherent set of atmospheric conditions controlled by tropical climate patterns. Not Random.
Predicting tropical climate patterns is the basis for making a seasonal hurricane outlook.
Outlooks indicate the expected overall seasonal activity.
Outlooks are
NOT
a seasonal
hurricane
landfall
prediction
and
do
not
predict levels of activity for any particular region.
Outlooks are probabilistic, meaning the stated ranges have a certain likelihood of occurring.
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2. NOAAs 2013 hurricane season outlooks
NOAAs 2013 Hurricane Season Outlooks
NOAAs outlooks indicate expected overall seasonal activity. They are not a seasonal hurricane landfall prediction. Persons in hurricane prone regions should prepare every year regardless of the seasonal outlook.
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Atlantic Hurricane Season Basics
Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June through 30 November.
Most hurricane activity (90% or more) occurs during August October.
We are now 18 years into a high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.
12 of the last 18 seasons have been above normal, compared to only two above normal seasons during the preceding low activity era 1971 1994.
No consensus on how long the current high activity era will last.
Historically, high and low activity eras have lasted 25 40 years.
3. NOAAs Atlantic hurricane season outlook
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3. NOAAs Atlantic hurricane season outlook
2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/
This outlook will be updated in early August.
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3. NOAAs Atlantic hurricane season outlook
How Well NOAA Outlooks Have Done in the Past
NOAA Atlantic
hurricane
season
outlooks
issued
in
May
have
correctly
predicted the season strength (Above , near , or below normal) 70% of the time. Outlooks issued in August were correct 79% of the time.
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3. NOAAs Atlantic hurricane season outlook
2013 Expected Season Strength Compared to Past Seasons
ACE index measures overall season strength by accounting for the combined number, intensity, and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes.
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3.1 Atlantic hurricanes since 1995 compared to 1971 1994
Comparing Hurricane
Numbers
Between
High and LowActivity Aras
5
8
0
2
4
6
8
10
1971-1994 1995-2012
Atlantic Hurricanes
Average Hurricanes Per Season
Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared tothe 1971 1994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more thandoubled.
1.5
3.7
0
1
2
3
4
1971-1994 1995-2012
Atlantic Major Hurricanes
Average Majo r Hurricanes Per Season
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Recipe for a Hurricane
4. Recipe for a hurricane
Warm Ocean
A pre existing disturbance Area of low pressure and thunderstorms moving westward from Africa
Not too much wind shear
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Warm Ocean
4. Recipe for a hurricane
Main DevelopmentRegion
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A Pre Existing Disturbance
4. Recipe for a hurricane
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Not Too Much Wind Shear
4. Recipe for a hurricane
WEAK SHEAR = FAVORABLE
low clouds
high cloudsSTRONG SHEAR = UN FAVORABLE
E Y E
LOWER-LEVEL WINDS
UPPER-LEVEL WINDSUPPER-LEVEL WINDS
LOWER-LEVEL WINDS
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4. Recipe for a hurricane
Typical Conditions Associated withActive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons
This set of conditions has strong links to tropical climate factors. There is an extensive monitoring program to assess and predict these conditions and the climate factors.
WarmerAtlantic SSTs
Wetter, strongerWest African
Monsoon
DrierWeaker TradeWinds(Dark Blue
Arrow )
Upper- levelEasterly windsexpand westward(Green arrows)
Warmer Ocean
Higher Pressure inUpper Atmosphere
Favorable African Easterly J et
Warmer OceanReduced Wind ShearLower Air Pressure(Red Area )
Main Development Region(MDR)
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5. Science behind NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
Science Behind NOAAs Hurricane Season Outlooks
Three main climate factors strongly control Atlantic hurricane season
1. Tropical multi decadal (25 40 year) signal : Reflects fluctuations in West African monsoon strength, and the wind and air pressure patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
2. El Nio and La Nia; Reflect large year to year changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures.
3. Atlantic Ocean temperatures
NOAAs seasonal outlooks are based on predictions of these climate factors, along with a suite of climate model forecasts.
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5. Science behind NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
Tropical Multi Decadal Signal
This climate pattern lasts 25 40 years, and produces high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes: warmer waters, reduced wind shear, favorable winds that strengthen cloud systems coming from Africa.
Stronger, Wetter West African
MonsoonDrier
Main Development Region (MDR)
Warmer Ocean
Warmer Ocean
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More Shear
Stronger Wind Shear, Fewer Hurricanes
Warm, Wet
La Nia favors more hurricane
activity by
decreasing
the
vertical
wind shear.
Less Shear
Weaker Wind Shear, More Hurricanes
Cool, Dry
La Nia
5. Science behind NOAAs hurricane season outlooks
El Nio and La Nia
El Nio suppresses hurricane activity.
Its strong wind shear can prevent hurricanes from forming, and can also kill an existing hurricane.
El Nio
El Nio and La Nia reflect large year to year changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures.
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Hurricane and Tropical Storm Hazards
Hurricane and Tropical Storm hazards include:
1. Storm surge2. Inland flooding3. Heavy rains4. High Winds5. Tornadoes
6. Rip currents
6. Hurricane landfalls
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Slide 3.1 Repeated: Atlantic hurricanes since 1995 compared to 1971 1994
Comparing Hurricane Numbers Between High and LowActivity Eras
5
8
0
2
4
68
10
1971-1994 1995-2012
Atlantic Hurricanes
Average Hurricanes Per Season
Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared tothe 1971 1994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more thandoubled.
1.5
3.7
0
1
2
3
4
1971-1994 1995-2012
Atlantic Major Hurricanes
Average Majo r Hurricanes Per Season
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Comparing U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Between High and LowActivity Eras
1.3
1.9
0.00.2
0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
1971-1994 1995-2012
U.S. Hurricane Landfalls
Average U.S. Hurricane Landfal ls Per Season
Since 1995 U.S. has averaged almost two hurricane landfalls per season, an almost 50% increase compared to 1971 1994.
6. Hurricane landfalls
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6. Hurricane landfalls
Atlantic Hurricane Tracks
In a high activity era, many more hurricanes and major hurricanes form andmake landfall. In active seasons, many storms form in the MainDevelopment Region (MDR). Less active seasons have little activity in MDR.
High Activity: 24 Years1959-1970, 1995-2006
Low-Activity: 24 Years1971-1994
Main Development Region Main Development Region
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6. Hurricane landfalls
Hurricane Landfalls in Above Normal Seasons
The probability for multiple U.S. hurricane landfalls increases sharply forvery active seasons (red bars, ACE > 165% of median), even when
compared to other abovenormal seasons (blue bars). Since 1995, therehave been 8 very active seasons (There were none during 1971 1994.).
KEY:
Very Active
SeasonsOther Above Normal Seasons
0
20
40
60
80
100
One or more Two or more Three or more P e r c e n
t o f
S e a s o n s
Number of Hurricane landfalls
US Hurr icane Landfalls
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6. Hurricane landfalls
Florida Population Growth Since 1900
High Active Era
Low-Activity
Era
Low-Activity
Era
FloridaHigh-ActivityEra
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Hurricane Katrina
Eye was 30 miles across
NewOrleans
6. Hurricane landfalls
Hurricane Katrina; 2005
Biloxi
Hurricane winds extend 125 miles from center.New Orleans and Biloxi were both in eye wall at same time.
Outer edgeof Eye Wall
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Hurricanes Not Just a Coastal Event
6. Hurricane landfalls
Leading cause of death is now from inland flooding.
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Hurricane Irene: 2011 (NASA)
6. Hurricane landfalls MH Irene in Bahamas
H Irene along U.S. East CoastMH Irene east of Florida
Track of Irene
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Hurricane Irene Rainfall Totals (Inches)
6. Hurricane landfalls
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
7+ Inches
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Hurricane Sandy (October 2013)
6. Hurricane landfalls
Figures from accuweather.com
Confluence of factors: Large storm Hits heavily populated coastline
At high tidemassive storm surge Produces devastating flooding
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Hurricane Preparedness Week: This week
6. Hurricane landfalls
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Summary
7. Summary Strong scientific basis for making seasonal hurricane outlooks.
An above normal, possibly very active, 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is expected.
Atlantic high activity era began in 1995. These typically last 25 40 years.
Large build up of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast since 1970.
Hurricanes NOT just a coastal event; impact millions in many different ways (storm surge, coastal and inland flooding, winds, rain, tornadoes)
Prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.
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ARE YOU PREPARED for the 2013 Hurricane Season?
Excellent Hurricane Preparedness Information
www.ready.gov
www.nhc.noaa.gov
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QUESTIONS?
STAY TUNED for the best ways to prepare YOUR Organization for the threats of
Tropical Weather Systems
Gerry Bell, Ph. D.NOAA Climate Prediction Center
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Is YOUR Organization Prepared for the 2012 Hurricane Season?
Preparedness Steps andLessons Learned
Bob BoydPresident & CEOAgility Recovery
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1. Assess risks to your critical operational functions.
2. Backup your data & ensure remote access. 3. Advise your supply chain of actions taken.
4. Activate crisis
communication
plan
&
Test
It.
5. Resupply emergency kits.6. Establish contact with your insurance provider.
7. Consider the need for alternate locations.8. Ensure Employees are Personally Prepared.
9.**Note Steps above do not constitute a complete plan.A full Disaster Recovery Business/Continuity Strategy
is required for maximum resilience.
Key Steps To Preparedness
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What types of emergencies have occurred in the past following storms in your area?
What could happen as a result of your office location(s)?
What types of issues could result from the design or construction of your facilities?
What could result from a process, system or supply chain failure?
Are there different risks for short and long term interruptions?
Are transportation or communication system failures likely?
Are critical employees personally prepared to endure the storm?
Assessing Risks to Critical Functions
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Realize the
limitations
of
outsourced IT Management
Lack of Responsiveness Staffing/Availability Communication Gaps
Automated, Daily back ups.
Store in an off site, secure
location, outside of your region Test a full restoration regularly to
remote location or secondary servers. Document the time & bandwidth resources required
Backing Up
Data
Properly
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Talk to your key vendors and suppliers about their recovery plans.
Ask yourself has it been tested? Develop relationships with alternate
vendors. Eliminate single points of failure.
Educate your clients about the importance of preparedness.
Insure what cant be protected. Ensure your crisis scenario doesnt
have supply
chain
holes Keep partners just as informed as
your employees during recovery
Supply Chain: the external vendors and suppliers you rely on to
deliver your everyday services and products to members/customers.
Preparing Your Supply Chain
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Develop a process to make sure all stakeholders (internal and external) are aware of decisions and expectations.
Ensure redundancies independent of cell or terrestrial networks as much as possible Ensure Phone List is UPTODATE (with alternate phone #s) Utilize multiple cellphone network carriers if possible Establish phone tree Password protected web page (centralized emergency status) Social Media strategy & usage Email alert (have primary & secondary email addresses) Callin recording system Text/Data Alert system Ensure everyone familiar with system
Manage customer and key vendor communications.
Prepare a media communications plan. Test the plan regularly and in the days prior to a notice
event
Activating Your
Crisis
Communications
Plan
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Recovery plan
Important records Insurance policies Fixed asset inventory Contracts
Operating system install disks Licensing keys/Passwords Letterhead Office Supplies
Cash Flashlight Battery powered radio Batteries
Food & Water for those working the recovery
ReSupply Emergency Kits
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Make certain you are insured for all potential risks. Know the different types of coverage and limits. Consider business interruption insurance and added expense insurance. Keep photos of your building, equipment lists and policy information
stored in a safe and secure offsite location. Maintain an up to date Asset management program.
MOST losses following hurricanes are due to flooding.Most general policies do not cover flooding. Ensure you fully
understand your coverage and any exposure to risk.Dont Wait until the Storm is Imminent. Do this Today.
Business Interruption/Resumption Insurance Coverage to help in
rebuilding your company in the event of a business interruptionAdded/Extra Expense Insurance Insurance to cover unexpected added costs in the event of an interruption or unexpected event.
Reviewing Your
Insurance
Coverage
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Mobile Recovery
Delivered to
a specific
location. Ideal for small to medium sized business.
High level of flexibility. Cost effective solution.
Hot Site Recovery Permanent, regional
facility. Fixed Site. First come, first served
at time of disaster. Susceptible to same risks Oversubscription
Other Alternatives
Reciprocal agreement Internal CoLocation
Considering an Alternate Location
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1. Do they have a plan?a) Evacuation/Shelter planb) Critical Document Storagec) Emergency Alert Systemd) Emergency/Go Kit
2. How can your organization help?a) Workshopsb) Checklistsc) Emergency Kitsd) Family Involvement
Days
Preparing Employees
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Ensure Employees knowledge of your plan & their
roles. (including new hires) Ensure any Work-From-Home Strategies in place are
tested
Cross-Train Employees for critical roles
Refuel company vehicles prior to the storm makinglandfall
Understand ways to help employees:
Consider car pooling
Flex Scheduling
Offering onsite day care
Preparing Employees
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Common Failures&
Lessons Learned
Bob BoydPresident & CEOAgility Recovery
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Power: Generator on site Lack of Mobility?
Maintenance Up
to
Date?
Refueling Capability / Access Backup to the backup?
Alternate Site: Reliance on Hot/Cold Sites Over Subscribed Transportation Costs/Difficulties
Shared Sites Inflexible Solution
Have access to multiple Generators throughout the regionSet up Fuel ProvidersPerform Regular maintenanceKnow a local Electrician
Have options OTHER than a permanent siteUnderstand Employee Disruption if relocatingKnow the full implications of relocation (lodging, transportation, childcare)
Better Options:
Common Failures
Mistakes made during a Crisis
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Mistakes made during a Crisis
Communications: Rely on a Single Provider Single Mobile Carrier Single Email Servers No land lines Unfamiliarity with texting
Work from Home Strategy: Will it work? Low Productivity Connectivity Issues (Power/Internet) Distractions
Unable/Unwilling to report for duty
Have a backup Communications providerAlert Notification SystemUse Phone Redirection and know how it worksHave a backup Voicemail & Email Network (Gmail)
Better Options:
Relocating Employees Having a Plan for displacing of familiesSeek locations that offer familiar surroundings & lifestyleRestore the normal routine sooner
Common Failures
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Additional Resources
Bob BoydPresident & CEOAgility Recovery
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Detailed Preparedness and Recovery Checklists:
www.PrepareMyBusiness.org
FEMA Official Hurricane Website
http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm
Ready.gov Hurricane Preparedness Information:
http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes
National Hurricane Center Tropical System News & Information:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
American Red Cross Emergency Kits, etc.http://www.redcrossstore.org/
Links &
Resources
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QUESTIONS?
Todays session has been recorded.
Links to
the
archived
recording
will
be
emailedto all registrants automatically tomorrow .
For copies of the slides presented during todays session,please visit http://agil.me/sbahurricaneprep
Bob Boyd , President & CEO Agility Recovery [email protected]
704 927 7922
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