SCENARIO PLANNING IN ALASKA
Robert A. Winfree, Ph.D.U. S. National Park Service
From Williams, Szaro and Shapiro. 2007
Which Tool for the Job?
Scenario Planning in Alaska
Five Step Process
1. Frame the Issue2. Assess Information3. Develop Scenarios4. Take Action5. Monitor Changes
What is the future of energy development,
resource extraction, and associated support
activities on Alaska’s North Slope and adjacent seas through the year 2040?
Forecast Planning One Future
Scenario Planning Multiple Futures
Scenarios overcome the tendency to predict, allowing us to see multiple possibilities for the future
Scenario Planning vs. Forecasting
What we know today
+10%-10% Uncertainties
Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group Copyright 2010 Monitor Company
Diverse Scenario Drivers
• Resource Demand• Resource Availability• Economics• Infrastructure• Environmental Sensitivity
Inclusive Scenario Planning
What Does The Future Hold?
Exploring Scenarios
Planning From ScenariosRobust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios
OR
Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality
OR
Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size
OR
Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Core
RobustSatellite
Satellite
Bet theFarm
Exposed ice lens in active thermokarst
↑
TAPS – Trans Alaska Pipeline System Dalton Highway
Questions?
Planning From ScenariosRobust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios
OR
Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality
OR
Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size
OR
Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Hedge Your Bets
Core
RobustSatellite
Satellite
Bet theFarm
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