Rob MacKenzie: Resilience, a personal research perspective
http://www.birmingham.ac.uk/research/impact/policy-commissions/future-urban-living/index.aspx
Resilience
is about the dynamics of a system
and about the future
Resilience
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
= 𝑃𝑃 − 𝐿𝐿;
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
= 0;𝑃𝑃 = 𝐿𝐿
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
= 𝑃𝑃(𝑑𝑑) − 𝐿𝐿(𝑑𝑑)
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = � 𝑃𝑃 𝑑𝑑 − 𝐿𝐿 𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑡𝑡1
𝑡𝑡0𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
+ 𝑢𝑢𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
= 𝑃𝑃 𝑑𝑑 − 𝐿𝐿(𝑑𝑑)
t
C
Css
Dynamic Systems
Finite space domain and time-varying boundary conditions
“shock”
L(t)→0
t
C
Css
P(t)→0
“shock”
Steady state
Managed landscapes are not usually near steady state; determining their resilience requires monitoring response to shocks/management/modifications
t
C
harvest
‘pseudo-resilient’
“Saf
e” o
pera
ting
spac
e
Responsive but not resilient
Shape of ‘bounce back’ or relaxation, over time, is most important characteristic
If we knew the (time-dependent) shape of the red hyper-dimensional resilience curves exactly we could in principle work out resilience exactly Css
Mature forests are a carbon sink – because of elevated CO2, nitrogen deposition, & changing climate
(Odum’s 1-D steady-state is inapplicable for finite patches with varying boundary conditions)
CO2
To find the ‘red resilience curve’: Free-Air Carbon Enrichment (FACE)
Aim to run experiment for 10 years + “The ecological equivalent of the Large Hadron Collider”
Wind 30 m diameter 24
-27m
, dep
endi
ng o
n lo
cal c
anop
y he
ight
BIFoR FACE: •£10m+ construction costs •~20 tonnes of CO2 per day •6-10, 150 yr-old oak standards •12-15, hazel coppice stools •3 trial plots •3 complete-replica controls •3 undisturbed patches
BIFoR FACE top-level research questions
1. Does elevated CO2 increase the carbon storage in mature woodlands?
2. Do other macro- or micro-nutrients limit the uptake of carbon?
3. What aspects of biodiversity and ecosystem structure-and-function alter?
4. How can lessons learnt be generalised to other woodlands and forests? (Global Network of second-generation Forest FACE experiments)
Norby, R. J., …, A. R. MacKenzie, R. Thomas…, Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest FACE experiments, New Phytologist, 2015, DOI: 10.1111/nph.13593
Dendrometer
BIFoR FACE: intensive system monitoring
Core Measurements at Mill Haft
Underway – Dendrometers – LAI - via hemispherical photography – Leaf gas exchange – Stream Monitoring (Discharge,Water temperature, pH, Turbidity, Dissolved oxygen,
Nitrate & Nitrite, Dissolved organic carbon
– Eddy covariance flux measurements (CO2, H2O, CH4) – Phenocam – Meteorology above & below canopy – Plant tissue sampling – Invertebrate sampling – Litter traps – Soil sampling
Pending – Soil gas fluxes – Minirhyzotrons
Find key indicators of the shape of the ‘red resilience curve’ - Try the indicators in other settings
Beware of Category Mistakes
“There are almost never technical solutions to social problems.” Bruce Schneier, Harvard Law School (Nature, 515, p482, 2014).
Resilience
is about the dynamics of a socio-enviro-economic system
and about the future
Resilience
Resilient design puts in place necessary conditions and avoids hostages to fortune
MacKenzie, A.R., T.A.M. Pugh and C.D.F. Rogers, “Sustainable Cities: seeing past the trees”, Nature, 468, p765, 9 December 2010. Hale, J, … A. R. MacKenzie, Delivering a multi-functional and resilient urban forest, Sustainability, 2015, 7(4), 4600-4624; doi:10.3390/su7044600
The Future is plural Futures thinking exploits the human capacity for change Practicable futures are
• derived from established philosophical positions: Hobbes, JS Mill, Adam Smith, Schumacher. • derived from global scenarios → consistency across scales
Derived futures can pressure-test current or proposed systems Method gives rise to a shared rationale for interventions
can guide practice at every level from policy formulation through to implementation in specific sites, reducing the risk of “box-ticking”.
Hunt, … A. R. MacKenzie, et al., Scenario archetypes: Converging rather than diverging themes, Sustainability 2012, 4(4), 740-772; doi:10.3390/su4040740
Boyko, … MacKenzie et al., Benchmarking sustainability in cities: The role of indicators and future scenarios, Global Environmental Change, 22(1), 245-254, doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.10.004, 2012.
Hunt, … A. R. MacKenzie, et al., Scenario archetypes: Converging rather than diverging themes, Sustainability 2012, 4(4), 740-772; doi:10.3390/su4040740
New Sustainability Paradigm An ethos of ‘one planet living’ facilitates a shared vision for more sustainable living and a better quality of life
Policy Reform Comprehensive and coordinated government action towards greater sustainability is initiated
Market Forces Well functioning markets are seen as the key to resolving social, economic and environmental problems
Fortress World The world is divided, with the elite in interconnected, protected enclaves and an impoverished majority outside
Image sources hyperlinked
Interactive Tool (for urban design)
STEP 1 Intervention&
Benefit
STEP 2 Necessary Conditions
STEP 3 Future
Performance
STEP 4 Resilience to
future change
STEP 5b Adapt
STEP 5a Implement
STEP 5c Seek
Alternative
STEP 1 Intervention&
Benefit
STEP 2 Necessary Conditions
STEP 3 Future
Performance
STEP 4 Resilience to
future change
STEP 5b Adapt
STEP 5a Implement
STEP 5c Seek
Alternative The analysis has flagged up reasons why the intervention may fail. This is the starting point for adapting the intervention or..
STEP 1 Intervention&
Benefit
STEP 2 Necessary Conditions
STEP 3 Future
Performance
STEP 4 Resilience to
future change
STEP 5b Adapt
STEP 5a Implement
Reasons why the intervention fails may provide a starting point for considering more resilient and radical alternatives
INNOVATION
INNOVATION
RADICAL INTERVENTIONS
STEP 5c Seek
Alternative
Resilience
is about the push-pull dynamics of a socio-enviro-economic system
and about moving into the future
Resilience
Source: tiswango flickr.com/tiswango
“Systems thinking” for something as complicated as a forest can feel like running an n-dimensional 3-legged
race…
One-world living
Resource consumption
Design Emergence
Vanguardism Leadership
Regulations Business models
Planning
Ecosystems Communities The Market
wisdom Evidence-based deduction; vision; ideology
Over-reaching expertise
Consumption-based demand
Consumption-focused metrics
New ways of living; New ways of making a living
Change in hearts and minds; Niche creation
New structures for living; New ethical codes for making a living
Moral pressure for change in rules
NARRATIVE
One-world living
Resource consumption
Design Emergence
Vanguardism Leadership
Regulations Business models
Planning
Ecosystems Communities The Market
agile trusted
acknowledged
Strongest when
experiments are encouraged
Strongest when vision is
embedded in a narrative
Strongest when value/values are
explicit Strongest when
costs are internalised
Image courtesy of The Woodland Trust
Resilient forests? Resilient cities? or Resilient mixed landscapes?
Odum’s 1-D steady-state is inapplicable for finite patches with varying boundary conditions –
but where even to draw the boundaries?
•Research into forest resilience can learn from other sectors –
cities/industry/society.
•Assessing resilience involves futures thinking – not necessarily technical or arduous.
•Moving towards resilient forests will require cooperative working: a “3n-legged
race” for progress.
•Finding resilience may involve re-drawing boundaries – mixed landscapes
•For managed landscapes (ie just about everywhere) we should use harvest,
management, and shocks to find the red resilience curves describing the system.
•The environmental resilience of woodlands and forests is being diagnosed in forest
FACE facilities.
Conclusions
[email protected] @BIFoRUoB
www.birmingham.ac.uk/bifor
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