RNS Rates – Five Year Forecast
PTO AC - Rates Working Group - Presentation
NEPOOL Reliability Committee / Transmission Committee – Summer Meeting
August 13-15, 2012
2
Presentation Overview
2012 Forecast Comparison - Summary
2012 Forecast Comparison - Detail
2013 – 2016 Forecast - Disclaimer
2013 – 2016 Forecast - Summary
New England RNS Rate Forecast - Summary
Appendix – RNS Rate Forecast Components 2013 Forecast Components
2014 Forecast Components
2015 Forecast Components
2016 Forecast Components
3
2012 Forecast Comparison - Summary
PTO AC initially estimated $1,994M of PTF Additions in service and
Construction Work In Progress (“CWIP”) for MPRP and NEEWS in 2012
This level of projected PTF Additions and CWIP resulted in: Forecasted RNS revenue requirement of $332M with an estimated RNS Rate Impact
of $15.72/kW-Yr. Based on actual 2010 Carrying Charge Factors & 12CP RNS Load (21,086 MW)
RNS Rate effective June 1, 2012 includes an estimated $1,302M of PTF
Additions in service and CWIP for MPRP and NEEWS in 2012
This level of projected PTF Additions and CWIP results in: Forecasted RNS revenue requirement of $202M with an estimated RNS Rate Impact
of $10.05/kW-Yr. Based on actual 2011 Carrying Charge Factors & 12CP RNS Load (20,178 MW)
CAPITAL ADDITIONS IN-SERVICE AND CWIP
Changes CARRYING CHARGE FACTORS
12-CP RNS LOADS
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2012 Forecast Comparison - Detail
Note: Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
BHE 64 11 76 13 $0.12 CMP 798 134 364 54 ($3.65)
CTMEEC (a) - - 51 2 $0.08 Highgate 36 6 - - ($0.30)
HG&E 4 1 4 1 $0.01 NHT 8 2 6 1 ($0.02)
NGRID 348 55 237 37 ($0.77)NSTAR 204 28 88 12 ($0.73)
NU 383 67 366 61 ($0.14)UI 85 17 70 14 ($0.12)
VT Transco 64 11 40 7 ($0.15)Total 1,994 332 1,302 202
RNS Rate Incremental
Impact ($/kW-Yr)($5.67)
(a) Not a projected PTF addition; current PTF Facility Cost used to calculate additional revenue requirements to establish an initial full calendar year of cost data.
Variance Impact ($/kW-Yr)
2012 Forecast Provided at the 2011 RC/TC Summer Meeting Actual June 1, 2012 RNS Rate
Participating Transmission
Owner
$15.72 $10.05
2012 Projected PTF Additions
(including CWIP) ($ in Millions)
Forecasted RNS Revenue
Requirements ($ in Millions)
2012 Projected PTF Additions
(including CWIP) ($ in Millions)
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
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2013 - 2016 Forecast - Disclaimer
The 2013-2016 forecast herein provides an indicative RNS rate trend; it should be used for illustrative purposes only.
The estimated data utilized by the PTO AC to develop this forecast of RNS rates is based upon estimated capital additions provided to the Committee by all the New England Transmission Owners. Estimates for 2013 capital additions will be finalized during the normal course of update to the RNS rate effective June 1, 2013 and will reflect more current information.
The PTO AC acknowledges that this 2013-2016 forecast is based on a number of assumptions and variables including, among others, estimated project need, design, scope, labor & materials costs, inflation, site & permitting approvals, transmission in-service dates, estimated carrying charges & coincident peak network loads. It is therefore expected that such estimates and assumptions will change over time as more current data become available.
In addition, the 2013-2016 forecast reflects gross costs and does not include assumptions pertaining to savings (e.g., associated with congestion, unlocked capacity, etc.) or prior year true-up adjustments.
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2013 - 2016 Forecast - Summary
Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
2013 2014 2015 2016
Estimated Additions In-Service and CWIP ($M)
1,172 1,184 1,330 1,246
Forecasted Revenue Requirement ($M)
197 182 212 212
Estimated RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)
10 9 10 11
Estimated RNS Rate Forecast ($/kW-Yr)
85 94 104 115
Estimated RNS Rate Forecast ($/kWh)Assumes a 60% Load Factor
0.016 0.018 0.020 0.022
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New England RNS Rate Forecast – Summary
Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RSP-Proposed, Planned, UC 12.08 6.71 5.95 7.64
CWIP (4.36) (0.17) (0.44) (2.13)
RSP- Proposed, Planned, UC (net of CWIP) 7.72 6.53 5.51 5.51
Other PTF 1.48 0.49 0.92 0.35
RSP-Concept 0.00 0.41 0.03 1.86
Future RSP 0.53 1.57 4.02 2.77
Prior Year Rate 75.25 75.25 84.99 93.99 104.47
75.25 84.99
93.99
104.47
114.96
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00$/
kW
Yea
r
Total RNS Rate Effective June 1 75.25 84.99 93.99 104.47 114.96
$/kWh .014 .016 .018 .020 .022
Appendix-
RNS Rate Forecast Components
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2013 Forecast Components
Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
BHE 0 0 0.00
CMP 225 30 1.50
CTMEEC 2 0 0.00
HG&E 0 0 0.00
NHT 4 1 0.04
NGRID 308 48 2.37
NSTAR 172 24 1.17
NU 393 81 4.03
UI 36 7 0.35
VT Transco 32 6 0.28
Total 1,172 197 9.74
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Western MA Study
Lower Southeastern MA
Participating Transmission Owner
2013 Projected PTF Additions
(including CWIP) ($in Millions)
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)
Key Drivers - Major Projects >$50M
Maine Power Reliability Project (MPRP)
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS)
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Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
2014 Forecast Components
BHE 0 0 0.00
CMP 289 42 2.06
CTMEEC 0 0 0.00
HG&E 0 0 0.00
NHT 4 1 0.04
NGRID 220 34 1.69
NSTAR 200 27 1.36
NU 436 72 3.53
UI 11 2 0.11
VT Transco 24 4 0.21
Total 1,184 182 9.00
Participating Transmission Owner
2014 Projected PTF Additions
(including CWIP) ($in Millions)
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)
Key Drivers - Major Projects >$50M
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Western MA Study
Maine Power Reliability Project (MPRP)
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), NH 10 Year Projects
11
2015 Forecast Components
Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
BHE 0 0 0.00
CMP 361 53 2.63
CTMEEC 0 0 0.00
HG&E 0 0 0.00
NHT 25 5 0.23
NGRID 270 42 2.07
NSTAR 162 22 1.10
NU 435 76 3.72
UI 52 10 0.51
VT Transco 25 4 0.22
Total 1,330 212 10.48
Participating Transmission Owner
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)
Key Drivers - Major Projects >$50M
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Western MA Study
Maine Power Reliability Project (MPRP)
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Manchester Area Solutions,
Pittsfield Greenfield Area Solution
Pequonnock 115kV Fault Duty Mitigation Phase I, Shelton 115/13.8kV Substation
12
2016 Forecast Components
Forecast is preliminary and for illustrative purposes only. Estimates are consistent with the June 2012 RSP and do not reflect revised ISO forecasts. Figures may be off slightly due to rounding.
BHE 0 0 0.00
CMP 177 27 1.32
CTMEEC 0 0 0.00
HG&E 0 0 0.00
NHT 0 0 0.00
NGRID 306 49 2.44
NSTAR 199 27 1.35
NU 181 39 1.92
UI 105 21 1.04
VT Transco 278 49 2.42
Total 1,246 212 10.49
Participating Transmission Owner
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
Forecasted RNS Revenue Requirements ($ in Millions)
RNS Rate Impact ($/kW-Yr)
Key Drivers - Major Projects >$50M
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Western MA Study
Maine Yankee-Suroweic
Woburn to North Cambridge 345 kV
New England East-West Solution (NEEWS), Central CT Greater Hartford
Solution
Pequonnock 115kV Fault Duty Mitigation Phase II
West Rutland to Ascutney
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