Nautilus ConsultantsNatural resource economists
www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk
Crick Carleton
Risk-based assessment techniques
Focus of discussions
Core issues
• Before getting into the differing merits of probability modelling, simulations and indices, let’s remind ourselves of the intended outcomes of our efforts – let’s ground ourselves in the world of the practical – to achieve real improvements in accessibility to sustainable fisheries management
• Sustainable management of fisheries is a reasonable objective and expectation for all – whether or not fish are being sold into markets that are responsive to the benefits of certification
• For most fisheries – whether in developed or developing countries – data volume and quality remain issues, even for the most heavily researched fisheries
Key rationale – to improve management of fisheries• Providing improved, and regularly updated, information on stock
condition / status allows managers and fishermen to make more informed decisions, and to adapt harvest strategies to changed / changing conditions
• For most fish stocks or local fishing conditions it is not feasible to undertake stock assessments of the form and detail traditionally advocated by ICES and equivalents
• But there are a range of existing and emerging tools that could be used to describe stock condition, and allow for improvements in the management of fisheries, for most if not all of these other fisheries
• What these tools are forms perhaps half of what we will talk about today; the other half is to identify to what extent these tools are likely to meet the requirements of a range of client types (including public recognition through certification and benchmarking)
Adaptive management loop –equivalent to MSC Principle 1
monitoring and
information
determine stock status
compare to reference
points
undertake management
actions as defined in
HCR
the management
loopmonitoring and
information
determine stock status stock
assessment
compare to reference points
undertake management
actions as defined in HCR
set reference points
agree management
strategy & HCR
the starting
pointmonitoring
and information
determine stock status stock
assessmentthe
essential baseline
set reference points
agree management
strategy & HCR
initial periodic review
Prejudice against small-scale
The privileges of political and commercial scale• Most clients want to employ best practice in the management of
their fisheries – notably to maintain the health of the fish stock, but also to allow harvesting at a consistent and optimal level (for stock, costs and revenues)
• For the large commercially important stocks, stock assessment procedures are well established – but there remain problems with
• the quality of data available, • inconsistent use of reference points, and • a low priority given to setting harvest strategies and harvest control
rules
• But for many more (smaller scale) fisheries, • the commercial / trans-boundary imperatives to undertake stock
assessment have been less evident or absent, and assessments are either non-existent, or incomplete
• For most of these fisheries, up until recently stock assessment has not been a practical or cost-effective option
• Risk-based methodologies offer a way around this
Certification - does it matter?• There is much talk about certification, and particularly its use in
mobilising consumer power to encourage good practice
• This tends to focus on developed country consumers – on supplies from local sources plus imports
• International trade is significant – therefore certification can be a significant force for good, but tends to link through to systems that employ economies of scale, and well-organised supply systems –and thus excludes small-scale production systems
• Small scale production systems provide income to more fishermenand more fishermen’s households than all larger scale systems; they also provide food / essential protein to more people than larger scale systems
• There are therefore considerations of equity, poverty alleviation and socio-economics to the inclusion of small-scale and data-poor fisheries into certification
Issues associated with certification
Small-scale / traditional systems don’t meet grade• Consumer behaviour and CSR concerns in the supply chain are
having considerable impact with regard to certification and traffic light listings
• But many small-scale production systems – primarily associated with inshore fisheries – are largely excluded from these certification schemes (stock status is not recorded), or come out badly in traffic light listings (little relevant information)
• The reasons behind this are various:
– there is little documentation of status and practice
– management infrastructure is poor
– traditional systems have not kept up with the times
– research resources have been focused on the large trans-nationalstocks
– until recently stocks were under-exploited, and so management was not such a priority issue
Standards are restrictive, but can be over restrictive• The components of the MSC standard (the Principles and Criteria) provide a
good template for certification and listings standards
• The vast majority of P2 – bycatch and habitat / ecosystem impacts are addressed through conventional measurement or using the MSC Risk-Based Framework for P2 (based on the Australian / Hobday work)
• Use of the MSC Risk-Based Framework for P1 is more controversial – it can be reasonably argued that it can only be applied to lightly exploited fisheries, and even these would be required to undertake conventional stockassessment during the period of validity of the certificate
• Most other existing standards would mark down or disqualify fisheries where no stock assessment existed, though many would not be as critical as the MSC standard with respect to use of reference points, harvest strategy and harvest control rules
• In a similar vein, stock assessment scientists are uncomfortable giving advice on fishery management, but for small-scale and/or lightly researched stocks / fisheries, they may be in the best position to provide such advice
Standard MSC assessment tree
Principle 1 –Species / stockPrinciple 1 –
Species / stockPrinciple 2 -EnvironmentPrinciple 2 -Environment
Principle 3 –Fishery management
Principle 3 –Fishery management
statusstatus managementmanagement retained catchretained catch fish. specificmngt system
fish. specificmngt systemgovernance &
policy
governance & policyETPETP ecosystemecosystem
90
recovery & rebuilding
recovery & rebuilding
reference points
reference points
stock statusstock status
assessmentassessment
information / monitoring
information / monitoring
harvest control rule(s) & tools
harvest control rule(s) & tools
performance of harvest strategy
performance of harvest strategy
monitoring & evaluation
monitoring & evaluation
fishery specific objectives
fishery specific objectives
incentivesincentives
long-term objectives & precaution
long-term objectives & precaution
consultation, roles & responsibilities
consultation, roles & responsibilities
legal /customeryframework
legal /customeryframework
compliance & enforcement
compliance & enforcement
decision-making processes
decision-making processesinformationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
research planresearch plan
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
bycatchbycatch habitathabitat
– need three greens at Principle level to pass
well above 80 thresholdat or above 80 threshold
well below 80 thresholdbelow 60 – automatic fail
slightly below 80 threshold
Meeting client requirements
Range of client typesSituation where government is committed to sustainable management but does not have the capacity to undertake stock assessments – e.g. The Gambia artisanal sole fishery
Stocks where there is commercial sector interest to progress sustainable management, but cannot rely on government capacity to take the matter forward – e.g. the Suriname seabob fishery
Small-scale fisheries where there is next to no documentary record of the fishery, and no history of research on the fishery, but where the fishery is considered to be well-managed – e.g. The Gambia artisanal sole fishery
Small-scale multi-species, multi-gear fisheries where any thought of stock assessment is dismissed on the basis of complexity – e.g. a typical reef fishery or inshore trawl fishery
Shellfish fisheries where size cannot be used as a surrogate for age – e.g. brown crab fisheries
A situation where a small fishery (relative to overall stock) is operating responsibly, but the actions of others compromises stock status – the client can control local activity, but not that of others – e.g. Sussex Sea Fishery Committee, St Helena tuna fisheries, Cornwall sardine fishery
Examples
Standard assessment tree
Principle 1 –Species / stockPrinciple 1 –
Species / stock
Principle 2 -EnvironmentPrinciple 2 -Environment
Principle 3 –Fishery management
Principle 3 –Fishery management
statusstatus managementmanagement
retained catchretained catch
fish. specificmngt system
fish. specificmngt systemgovernance &
policy
governance & policy
ETPETP ecosystemecosystem
bycatchbycatch habitathabitat
deals with a biological stock or a managed sub-component
deal with the fishery under assessment
Principle 1 –Species / stockPrinciple 1 –
Species / stockPrinciple 2 -EnvironmentPrinciple 2 -Environment
Principle 3 –Fishery management
Principle 3 –Fishery management
well above 80 thresholdat or above 80 threshold
well below 80 thresholdbelow 60 – automatic fail
slightly below 80 threshold
statusstatus managementmanagement retained catchretained catch fish. specificmngt system
fish. specificmngt systemgovernance &
policy
governance & policyETPETP ecosystemecosystem
90
recovery & rebuilding
recovery & rebuilding
stock statusstock status
reference points
reference points
assessmentassessment
information / monitoring
information / monitoring
harvest control rule(s) & tools
harvest control rule(s) & tools
performance of harvest strategy
performance of harvest strategy
monitoring & evaluation
monitoring & evaluation
fishery specific objectives
fishery specific objectives
incentivesincentives
long-term objectives & precaution
long-term objectives & precaution
consultation, roles & responsibilities
consultation, roles & responsibilities
legal / customary framework
legal / customary framework
compliance & enforcement
compliance & enforcement
decision-making processes
decision-making processesinformationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
research planresearch plan
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
informationinformation
managementmanagement
statusstatus
bycatchbycatch habitathabitat
P1.1 stock
condition
P2.2 discarded
catch
P1.2 harvest strategy
P2.1 retained
catch
P2.3 ETP
interactions
P2.5 ecosystem
impacts
P3.2 management
system
P2.4 habitat impacts
P3.1 fishery policy
The Fisheries selected pre-assessment(16 species, and 26 fisheries in all)
Nautilus ConsultantsNatural resource economists
www.nautilus-consultants.co.uk
Crick Carleton
Thank You
Moving to flexible adaptive management regimes• One major reason for this is that they tend to be managed through
more traditional systems (wise men, rule of thumb, consensus) which, when the fisheries were only lightly exploited, worked pretty well
• But as fisheries have become more heavily exploited, and technological change and access to the market economy provide both the means and the incentive to over-exploit, these more traditional, slower moving, systems have been less able to control or moderate these excesses
• What is needed is a more adaptive management regime – where decisions are made on the basis of current stock status information
• Risk-based approaches to stock assessment can yield this sort of information – at an appropriate level of detail, using techniques that managers can have confidence in, and at low cost and delivered in a relatively short period of time
• Such information can form the basis of a practical adaptive management regime
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