Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
Practical Applications of
Computational Criminology
Richard Bent Senior Research Fellow
PRIMERA CUMBRE INTERNACIONAL DE ANÁLISIS CRIMINAL CIENTÍFICO
Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
Overview of Presentation
• Computational Criminology
• uMetro Police Resourcing Model
• Modeling Co-Offending Networks
▫ Gangs and Organized Crime Networks
• Other Projects of Interest
▫ Mental Health – Interactions with Police
▫ Criminal Justice Simulation Model
▫ CourBC
Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
Crime is not random:
• Routine Space ▫ The daily rhythm, Activity Space
• Awareness space ▫ Around Routine Space
• Social Networks ▫ Family, friends, repeat contacts
• Urban Structure ▫ Nodes, paths, edges
• Individual and aggregate patterns
3
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Crime Patterns
• Nodes
• Paths
• Edges
• Crime Attractors
• Crime Generators
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K. Wuschke, ICURS
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Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies
uMetro Police Resourcing Model
Public Safety and Public Order Needs - Overview
Katie Wuschke, ICURS
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uMetro - Background
• Police resource models are retrospective
• uMetro is forward looking, based on evidence
• Novel approach linking geography and computational criminology
• Changing land use, changes crime
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Where We Started: • Collaborative effort between City officials, the
RCMP Detachment, and ICURS
• Data-sharing agreements developed ▫ Goal: To provide empirical research outlining the
possible outcomes of population expansion and urban development on a variety of scales
▫ Specific focus on policing needs
• Excel-based model estimating Full Time Equivalents (FTE) needed to handle growth
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Data Needs:
Policing Data
Required Data:
• Minimum two years of PRIME data – temporally matched to land use data • Full Time Equivalent organizational breakdown • Workload per Call by Land Use measure (CAD data or focus group) Beneficial Data and Input: • FTE projections/estimations for projection years • Scenario input
Municipal Data
Required Data: •Minimum two years of detailed land use data (British Columbia Assessment Authority) Beneficial Data and Input: • Urban Growth Figures: New Lot Counts by Land Use for projection years • Cadastral parcel outlines • Orthographic Photos • Additional Urban Spatial Files •Scenario input
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Data Collection
Data Joining
Data Input & Queries
Output
Police PRIME/CAD
Records
Municipal BC
Assessment Authority Land Use
Data
Police Calls for Service
records joined to
Land Use Data by address
2009 Dispatch Records joined
to Land Use Data
Workload per Call by Land
Use
Calls for Service by Land Use
Change/Growth in Land Use
RCMP FTEs per Calls for Service
Projected Total Required FTEs
Projected Land Use Growth
Projected Total Calls for Service
Projected Total Workload
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• Land Use Projections
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• Model Output
▫ The current model
explores three scenarios, and compares these scenarios to the actual/expected FTE allotment for the given detachment for each year of study.
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Model Review
• Full Time Equivalents
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• Model Output
▫ The current
model explores three scenarios, and compares these scenarios to the actual/expected FTE allotment for the given detachment for each year of study.
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Model Development: Upcoming
Phases
• Next Steps: ▫ Expanding model to include considerations of
interactions between land use and environmental features (major roadways)
▫ Incorporating expert knowledge to solidify the numbers used in calculation Workload per Call to specific land uses Focus
Groups and Interviews with RCMP Officers
Land use projections Urban Planning departments, Site C Hydro Electric dam
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Modeling Co-offending Networks
Richard Frank
Mohammad Tayebi
Vahid Dabbaghian
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Co-offending Drug Networks -
Data
• Used RCMP PIRS data, mid-2001 to mid-2006
• 4.4 million events, 9 million subjects
• Used to extract all drug networks from PIRS using co-offending links
• There were 3592 drug networks with at least 5 offenders
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Drug network 1
• 300 offenders (102 female, 198 male)
• 991 links
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Drug network 2
• 100 offenders
• 2356 links
Event #1
Event #2
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Drug network 3
• 485 offenders
• 1765 links
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Drug network 4
• 503 offenders
• 1595 links
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Drug
network 5
• 918 offenders
• 18182 links
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Drug network 6
• 182 offenders
• 1702 links
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Gangs/Organised Crime and
Networks
• Since 2009 Over 276 gang related shootings (CBC, 2011)
• Micro Meso Macro influence factors
• VPD GCU IGTF CFSEU
• ICURS can analyze:
▫ Social networks
▫ Co-offending networks
▫ Travel patterns
▫ Computer and mathematical models for policy decision-making Hilary Kim Morden - ICURS
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Gangs and Networks – Benefits to
Police
• Using co-offending data, criminal intelligence, analyses of wiretap and other communication information
• Potentially aids police in targeting in order to achieve most disruption of gang/organized crime activity
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Other Projects
• Mental Health Interactions with Police
• Criminal Justice Simulation Model
• CourBC
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Mental Health Calls for Service
• The numbers of interactions between police and persons with mental health issues increased
▫ Especially repeat contacts
▫ Increased concurrent issues
▫ Increased violence
▫ Many other social issues – homelessness, victimisation/repeat victimisation
• Province of British Columbia Policing Plan
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Mental Health Calls for Service
• Identified as priority by police and community
▫ Clear need for better coordination and information sharing between government agencies
▫ Need for more detailed research
• Common concern in Canada, US, UK, Australia, and New Zealand (likely other countries)
▫ One police department recorded16% of all calls for service involved persons with mental health issues
▫ Consumes a great deal of police resources
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Past Research
• Focused on: ▫
▫ Police responses and use of force
▫ Police Training
• All important issues, however, incomplete picture of police and criminal justice system dealings with persons with mental illness
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Analyses of Medium sized City
Mental Health CFS
• Reviewed detailed police reports of apprehensions by police under the Mental Health Act
• Data incomplete
▫ does not include all interactions, e.g: victims, suspects, at risk to themselves, witnesses, or in some cases Charged.
• Analysed events for frequency involving primary subject and ‘Charged’ data
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Number of Events - Primary Subjects are Involved
Event
Count
Number of
Primary
Subjects
Total
Events
%
Primary
Subjects
%
Events
1 to 10 1268 5193 58.8 11.7
11 to 20 338 5039 15.7 11.3
21 to 30 151 3747 7.0 8.4
31 to 40 95 3316 4.4 7.4
41 to 50 75 3359 3.5 7.5
51 to 100 157 10966 7.3 24.6
101 to 200 56 7555 2.6 17.0
over 200 16 5358 0.7 12.0
Total 2156 44533 100.0 100.0
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Grouped Charge Counts for Primary Subjects
Number
of
charges
Number
Primary
Subjects
Total
Charges
%
Primary
Subjects
%
Charges
0 1644 0 76.3 0.0
1 120 120 5.6 3.2
2 to 5 221 710 10.3 19.0
6 to 10 82 630 3.8 16.9
11 to 20 47 693 2.2 18.6
21 to 30 20 488 0.9 13.1
31 to 40 9 310 0.4 8.3
over 40 13 780 0.6 20.9
Total 2156 3731 100.0 100.0
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Mental Health Act – Calls for
Service • Most contact with Persons with Mental Health
Issues are non-criminal
▫ Small percentage of subjects account for a significant percentage of the police contacts
• The average times to deal with Mental Health call.
▫ 2 ½ hours if subject apprehended under MHA (in a large city in BC).
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Current Mental Health Research
• Working with Ministry of Justice, regional Health Authorities, other key agencies
▫ BC Policing Plan Action Item
▫ Analyses of PRIME (police) data at provincial level
• Evaluation of Current intervention models
• Retrospective study of persons found not criminally responsible
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Criminal Justice Simulation Model
• Joint project with IRMACS – ICURS affiliate
• Partner with Ministry of Justice, Province of British Columbia
• Model to identify resource needs throughout ministry – Prosecution Services, Court Services and Corrections when additional police added
• Personnel, financial, and physical resources
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CourBC
• Created from daily BC Court Services on-line publications
• Automated reverse engineering program
• Adult criminal cases: Provincial – Federal – Supreme
• Data collection since 2007
Andrew Reid - ICURS
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CourBC - Analyses
• Sentencing patterns across courts
• Track bail records
▫ Length of custody
▫ Length of remand
▫ Police and Crown decision to lay charges
• General sentencing trends
▫ Chronic offenders
▫ Mental health
▫ Property offenders
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CourBC Analytics
• A Graphic user interface to access the CourBC data
• Some Capabilities:
▫ Tracking the flow of cases in the court system up
to conclusion based on the folder number or name
▫ Summarizing the percentages of cases that are
found Guilty, Stayed, Dismissed in the court for
each crime
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CourBC Analytics
▫ Reporting on the complexity of cases in the court
system based on specific parameters:
For example, number of co-offenders, type of crime
▫ Reports of most frequently charged criminals and
crimes in a given time interval in a court
Amir Ghraseminejad – PhD Candidate ICURS
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