RESULTS FOR Q12017 ANALYST TELECONFERENCE
02 Operation
03Financials
01Market
2
01Market
3
4
2017 First Quarter Market Conditions
Normalizedwinter
conditions
Supply disruptionsHigh maintenance
Refinery Fires
IncreasingIndustrialActivities
Low Capacity Utilization in Latin America
Refineries
OPEC & Non OPEC Supply Cut
• FED Rate Hikes
• Concerns regarding the
future of Trump policies
Demonitisationin India
Brexit & Elections in
Europe
Stock levels were still
higher
High production of US, Brazil and
Canada/ Increase in
rig counts in US
Product Market Crude Oil
4,3
0,3
3,5
11,08,8
6,1
Jan Feb Mar
2016 2017
Key Highlights from Q1
5*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
EBITDA
EBITDA is more than
tripled
Strong net refinery
margins
$/bbl
Net Refinery Margin
Mil. $
150114
427
2015 2016 2017
Middle Distillate Production
20% more diesel and jet
fuel production
2,53
3,6
2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
Mil. Tons
0,59
0,51
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6 0,7
2016
2017
Jet Fuel
-12.6%
2 Months 2017 - Turkish Consumption (Million tons)
2,96
3,05
0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5
2016
2017
Diesel
0,30
0,30
0,00 0,03 0,06 0,09 0,12 0,15 0,18 0,21 0,24 0,27 0,30 0,33
2016
2017
Gasoline
-1.4%
0,15
0,14
0,00 0,02 0,04 0,06 0,08 0,10 0,12 0,14 0,16
2016
2017
Fuel Oil*
-10.1%
Source: EMRA*bunker excluded.
6
+3.0%
Crude Price Differentials ($/bbl)
7
-12
-8
-4
0
Price Differentials
Ural Iran Light (KI) Iran Heavy (KI) Kirkuk Arab. Heavy
Brent
-1,23 -1,46
-1,73
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2012-2017 Differental Range 2015 2016 2017
Ural DifferentialsBrent
Quarterly Product Crack Margins ($/bbl)
8
14,4
11,210,7
9,4
7,3 7,7 7,9
10,29,5
6
8
10
12
14
16
1Ç 2Ç 3Ç 4Ç
Jet Fuel2015 2016 2017
15,715,2
14,6
10,8
7,9
9,2 8,9
11,210,5
6
8
10
12
14
16
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Diesel2015 2016 2017
13,0
19,418,9
13,5
15,2
14,5
10,9
12,8
13,3
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Gasoline2015 2016 2017
-11,6 -12,0
-13,1
-12,5
-13,2
-15,0
-10,6
-5,7
-9,1
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Fuel Oil2015 2016 2017
02 Operations
9
5,6
6,97,3 7,4
6,6 6,77,2 7,4
7,1
0
2
4
6
8
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Min / Max 2007/2015
2015
2016
2017
Capacity Utilisation* (%)6
5,1
80
,7
94
,5 99
,9
2,9
3,4
5,2
6,5
68,0
84,1
99,7
106,4
40
60
80
100
120
2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1
Crude Oil Other
Quarterly Production Volume (Mn Tons)
Production
10
+6.7%
*Nameplate capacity calculated by standard 330 days of operations.
Tüpraş Sales (Million Tons)
11
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3,6 3,95,1 5,0 4,1
5,46,4
4,96,8 6,9
4,36,2 6,4
1,11,7
1,8 2,3
0,9
1,91,3
1,5
1,2 1,2
1,8
1,7 1,3
4,75,6
6,9 7,2
4,7
7,3 7,7
6,4
7,9 8,1
6,1
7,9 7,6
0
2
4
6
8
10
14 15 16 17 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Total Sales
Domestic
Export
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0,76 0,86 1,00 0,83 0,98 1,26 1,23 1,18 1,50 1,27 0,91 1,13 1,010,23 0,27 0,43 0,29 0,42
0,63 0,91 0,791,08 1,16
0,510,90 0,870,39 0,43
0,450,44
0,460,52 0,55 0,54
0,60 0,64
0,440,50 0,521,48
1,732,27
2,33 1,66
2,232,75
1,83
2,62 2,94
1,73
2,59 2,872,86
3,29
4,15 3,893,52
4,64
5,44
4,34
5,80 6,01
3,59
5,12 5,27
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
14 15 16 17 14 15 16 14 15 16 14 15 16
Domestic sales of selected productsJet Fuel
Bitümen
Gasoline
Diesel
Opet
830 885 915 938 966 1.009 1.073 1087
394 394 410 418 427 435431 437
1.224 1.279 1.325 1.356 1.393 1.444 1.504 1.524
0
300
600
900
1.200
1.500
1.800
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Q1
Station NumbersOpet Sunpet
12
Market positions as of Jan 2017:
•White Product: 18.9%
•Black Product: 10.5%
03Financials
13
Med & Tüpraş Net Margins ($/bbl)
2,53,2
6,5 6,0
1,7 1,9
4,84,0
0
2
4
6
8
10
2013 2014 2015 2016
12 Month
Tüpraş Net Med Complex
14
2,4
4,7
2,8
8,7
0,4
6,0
3,85,0
0
3
6
9
12
2014 2015 2016 2017
1st Quarter
Tüpraş Net Med Complex
* Hedge Operations not included
$ / bblGross
MarginInventory
Effect
Clean Gross
Margin
Clean NET Margin
Med Margin
2016 Q1 8,22 -0,18 8,40 2,99 3,84
2017 Q1 13,26 0,50 12,76 8,15 5,01
Product Price Effect on Tüpraş in Q1 (FOB Italy Prices)
15
Q1
Product Price, $/ton
Tüpraş Crack Margin, $/bbl
2017 2016Product Yield %
2017 2016
LPG 455,8 285,9 3,30% -13,2 -8,4
Gasoline 544,2 396,5 19,50% 13,3 15,0
Naptha 466,6 299,7 1,03% -1,1 -0,1
Jet Fuel 497,5 323,8 15,42% 9,5 7,3
Diesel 478,4 310,9 30,39% 10,5 7,9
Diesel 1000 470,8 300,3 1,24% 9,5 6,5
Fuel Oil 1% 314,5 144,9 0,94% -5,3 -11,5
Fuel Oil 3,5% 289,9 134,1 5,75% -9,1 -13,2
Diğer 263,4 135,1 16,80% -10,1 -11,5
Total Crack Margin,$/bbl 4,64 3,44
Dated Brent Avg. $/Bbl 53,8 33,9 94,36%
Margin Differences, $/bbl 1,20
Total Raw Materials Charge, mn Barrel 53,65
Total Effect of Product Price, mn $ 64,2
Total Effect of Price Ratio, mn TL 237,0
Income Statement (In TL)
16
Q1 Q1% Diff. Million TL
12 M
2015
12 M
2016% Diff.
2016 2017
6.191 12.370 100 Net Sales 36.893 34.855 -6
407 1.608 295 Gross Profit 4.126 3.649 -12
-227 -239 6 Operating Expenses -877 -995 13
93 -57 -161Income/Loss from other
operations-498 -296 -40
274 1.312 379 Operating Profit 2.752 2.357 -14
288 1.370 375Operating Profit Before Fin.
Income/Loss2.824 2.516 -11
182 162 -11 Financial Income 863 1.174 36
-374 -481 29 Finance Expenses -1.462 -1.746 19
96 1.052 997 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 2.225 1.944 -13
79 869 1.001 Net Profit 2.550 1.793 -30
335,3 1.575,0 369,8 EBITDA *(mn. TL) 3.798,9 3.396,3 -10,6
390,4 1.264,9 224,0 EBITDA* (mn. TL) CCS 3.934,5 2.984,3 -24,1
408,1 1.454,4 256 EBITDA (mn. TL)-CMB 3.237,8 2.898,3 -10,5
463,2 1.144,4 147,0 EBITDA (mn.TL)-CMB- CCS 3.373,3 2.486,3 -26,3
* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas in CMB rules these are included in operationg profit
Income Statement (In USD)
17
Q1 Q1% Diff. Million USD
12 M
2015
12 M
2016% Diff.
2016 2017
2.101 3.351 59 Net Sales 13.571 11.547 -15
138 436 215 Gross Profit 1.518 1.209 -20
-77 -65 -16 Operating Expenses -323 -330 2
32 -15 -149Income/Loss from other
operations-183 -98 -46
93 355 283 Operating Profit 1.012 781 -23
98 371 279Operating Profit Before Fin.
Income/Loss1.039 834 -20
62 44 -29 Financial Income 317 389 23
-127 -130 3 Finance Expenses -538 -578 8
33 285 775 Profit Before Tax & Minorities 819 644 -21
27 235 779 Net Profit 938 594 -37
113,8 426,7 275,0 EBITDA *(mn. $) 1.397,4 1.125,1 -19,5
136,2 343,5 152,2 EBITDA* (mn. $) CCS 1.432,4 962,0 -32,8
138,5 394,0 184,5 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB 1.191,0 960,1 -19,4
160,9 310,9 93,1 EBITDA (mn.$)-CMB- CCS 1.226,0 797,0 -35,0
* In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are not included, whereas in CMB rules these are included in operationg profit
18
96
1.052
443
380
237
44
130
279
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
Profit Before Taxin 2016
Yield Difference Inventory Effect Crack MarginDifferences
Crude OilDifferentials
FX Effect Others Profit Before Taxin 2017
Profit Bridge On Tupras 2017 Q1 (Mn TL)
19
Financial Highlights (mn $)
95 79 150 150 114
427
153 78-27
415237
361315 226
410
294
10689
-11
422
480715560
338
1.397
1.125
-200
200
600
1.000
1.400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EBITDA
16172
231112
27
23575
75
171273
113
309 435
175 268
197
27147 91
285
256
817
629 667
938
594
0
250
500
750
1.000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Income-1
.95
5
55
1
1.3
40 1.9
94
1.8
69
1.5
98
1.6
63 2.4
52
2.5
77
2.7
48
2.3
70
2.2
58
2.3
91
1.7
51
1.7
29
1.5
55
-3.000
-2.000
-1.000
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
Net Debt
0,3
0
0,3
2
0,2
4
0,2
6
0,3
5
0,0
4
0,1
1 0,1
6 0,2
2
0,4
5
0,00
0,10
0,20
0,30
0,40
0,50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 2016 1H 20169M
2016 2017Q1
Return on Average Equity
Balance Sheet Analysis
20
1,72 1,69
1,30
1,64 1,68
1,211,04
0,821,04
1,64 1,59
2,45
1,722,02
0
1
2
3
4
Cash & Equivalents (Billion $)
0,93
0,71
0,52 0,51
0,090,20
0,66
1,07
0,880,70
0,910,75
0,911,09
0,0
0,4
0,8
1,2
1,6
2,0
Receivables (Billion $)
2,6 2,8 2,9 2,9 3,0 3,3 3,1 3,0 2,8 2,9 2,8 3,1 2,89 2,95
0,50,9
0,3 0,3 0,30,4 0,5 0,6 0,6
1,0 1,21,1
0,56 0,633,1
3,7
3,2 3,2 3,33,7 3,6 3,6 3,4
3,9 4,0 4,2
3,45 3,57
0
1
2
3
4
5
Financial Loans (Billion $)
LT Loans ST Loans
3,2
2
3,1
0
3,2
8
3,0
4
2,4
6
1,7
4
1,7
0
1,5
9
1,3
6
1,2
3
1,6
9
1,9
8
2,0
2 2,6
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
Payables (Billion $)
Tüpraş Balance Sheet
21
Million USD 31.03.2017 31.12.2016 Diff. % Diff.
Current Assets 4.529 3.884 645 17Cash & C. Equivalents 2.017 1.719 298 17
Receivables 1.088 911 177 19Derivatives 10 10 0 5Inventories 1.209 1.025 184 18
Pre-paid expenses 19 28 -9 -33Other Current Assets 186 190 -4 -2
Long Term Assets 4.827 4.987 -160 -3Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 252 264 -12 -4
Fixed Assets 3.224 3.338 -113 -3Derivatives 109 105 4 4
Pre-paid expenses 77 68 9 14Deferred Tax 874 917 -43 -5
Other Long Term Assets 290 296 -6 -2
Total Assets 9.356 8.871 485 5
Short Term Liabilities 4.315 3.597 718 20
Financial Loans 626 556 69 12
Payables 2.619 2.020 599 30
Derivatives 12 8 3 39
Deferred Incomes 1 4 -3 -79
Provisions 31 18 13 70
Other ST Liabilities 1.027 990 37 4
Long Term Liabilities 3.004 2.953 51 2
Financial Loans 2.946 2.892 54 2
Payables & Provisions 56 59 -3 -5
Derivatives 1 1 0 32
Other LT Liabilities 2 2 0 1
Equity 2.013 2.298 -285 -12
Minority Interests 23 22 1 4
Total Liabilities 9.356 8.871 485 5
FX Risk Exposure (31 March 2017)
22*Cash flow hedge accounting : 1,403 mn $
ConsolidatedAssets
ConsolidatedLiabilities
LT Financials: 2,610
RUP Loans: 1,260
Eurobond: 700
Other credits 651
ST Financials 522
• RUP 296
Payables
957
Forward & CFH
1,636
Stock
1.166
Receivables & otherassets
26
Cash
1.242
Million $
-20 million $
2017 Expectations vs Q1 Results
54,7 55,1
51,6
40
45
50
55
60
17'1 17'2 17'3 17'4 17'5 17'6 17'7 17'8 17'9 17'10 17'11 17'12
Crude Oil Price
68 69
80,7 81,9 84,1
104110,3 111,6
99,7 102109 110,5
106,4
0
40
80
120
0
40
80
120
14'Q1 14'Q2 14'Q3 14'Q4 15'Q1 15'Q2 15'Q3 15'Q4 16'Q1 16'Q2 16'Q3 16'Q4 17'Q1
CDU
• The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 $/bbl• In Q1, the average was 53,8 $/bbl
• Expected Capacity Utilisation in 2017 - above 100 %• In Q1, 106,4% capacity utilisation was achieved.
Net Tüpraş refinery margin for Q1: 8,65 $/bbl(Target is 5.75 – 6.25 $/bbl)
344
213
32,813,8
0
100
200
300
400
2015 2016 2017 Q1
Tüpraş Ditaş
Planned investments for 2017 - 225 Million dollars
74,9 102,5105,3
106,4
8,7
5,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
17 Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17 Q4
Tupras Net Refinery Margin Med Margin
46,6
Mil. $
Future Expectations
Brent PriceEstimation
• The average Brent price in 2017 is expected to be 55 dollars per barrel.
Med Complex Margin
• We expect Med Complex margins to be between 4.0 –4.5 dollars per barrel band in 2017.
TüpraşNet Margin
• Net Tüpraş refinery margin is expected to be in the region of 5.75 – 6.25 dollars per barrel
Capacity Utilisation
Expectations for 2017;
• Full Capacity Utilization
• Production: approximately 29.2 million tons
• Imports of finished products will be minimal, as we focus on selling increased volumes of production
• Total sales: 30.6 million tons
Investment • Refining investments is expected to be 225 Million dollars. Additionally, 125 million dollars investment is planned for increasing the marine tanker fleet capacity.
24
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company
management’s current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is
believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may
be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could
cause actual results to differ materially.
Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person
shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation.
25
Extras
26
Thank You
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