Report on integrated N emission abatement in research & policy, including progress of
Gothenburg Protocol
Alessandra De Marco1, Ilaria D’Elia1 and Laura Valli2
1ENEA, CR Casaccia, Rome, Italy, 2CRPA, Reggio Emila, Italy,
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Air Quality in Europe
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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
PM10 PM2.5 CO NOx NMVOC SOx NH3
Air Quality in Italy
-26% NH3 reduction in Europe -17% NH3 reduction In Italy
-44% NO2 reduction in Europe -53% NO2 reduction In Italy
In 2009
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
The tools available in Italy for assessing scenarios for ammonia reduction: the MINNI project
GAINS-Italy model
«Nitro Flussi» model
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
FAIRMODE (Forum for AIR quality MODElling) - a joint response action of the European Environment Agency (EEA)
and the European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC). Its aim is to bring together air quality modelers and users in order to promote and support the harmonized use of models by EU member countries, with emphasis on their application to the
European Air Quality Directive.
FAIRMODE strongly recommends the use of models for the following applications:
Assessment of air quality levels to establish the extent of exceedances and establish population exposure
Forecasting air quality levels for short term mitigation and public information and warnings
Source allocation to determine the origin of exceedances and to provide a knowledge basis for planning strategies
Development and assessment of plans and measures to control AQ exceedances
In addition to these applications the use of models is strongly recommended for:
Designing monitoring networks when models are used in combination with monitoring
Determining the number of fixed monitoring sites that are required
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Why we use the models?
RAIL
RAMS, LAPS
Emission Manager
SURFPRO Meteorology
Turbulence parameters
FARM
Emission scenario
ECMWF fields Local Data Emission inventories
(ISPRA ed EMEP)
Space and time info
Concentrations and Depositions
EMEP IC e BC
Subsystem METEO
Subsystem
EMISSION
Subsystem Air Quality
GAINS
Transfer function
MINNI Atmospheric Modelling System (AMS)
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
MINNI Model simulation METEOROLOGY: 1999, 2005: 20 km res RAMS (nudging) 4 km res LAPS (diagnostic) 2003, 2007: RAMS (nudging) 20km and 4km res. Two-way nesting EMISSION: National Inventory ISPRA (top-down national) + EMEP Boundary Conditions: EMEP AIR QUALITY: 20km and 4 km res. FARM One-way nesting
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
MINNI Available products
• meteorological fields 3D • 3D concentration field for the main pollutants • Years: 1999, 2005, 2003, 2007 • Time resolution: 1 hour • Space resolution: 20 km , 4 km • vertical grid: • 12 layers (up to 4 km) 1999 • 16 layers (up to 10 km) 2005, 2003, 2007
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
NO2 From 20km to 4km resolution
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Building blocks of GAINS
Energy/agricultural projections
Emissions
Emission control options
Atmospheric dispersion
Air pollution impacts, Basket of GHG emissions
Costs
Energy models
(Markal, TIMES, PRIMES…)
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Air Quality models
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
GAINS-Italy model
- Based on ORACLE database;
- Is not an emission inventory;
- Accessible on line in remote way from many users contemporary
http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login
SO2, NOx, NH3, COV, PM + 6 GHGs
Dep S, N (ox, red),
Conc PM2.5, O3, NOx, S0
LER due to PM2.5, premature deaths due to O3
ecosystems (acidification, eutrophycation)
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
from Member States to Regions
from 50 km spatial resolution to 20 km spatial resolution
From GAINS Europe to GAINS Italy…
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Atmospheric Transfer Matrices (ATMs)
Emission Conc. & dep.
Piedmont
Emilia-Romagna
Sicily
ATMs represent the linear approximation of the system answer to the emission changes, respect to the reference scenario. In GAINS-Italy emission changes are at regional scale Pollutants concentration and deposition are estimated on a grid resolution of 20 km
ATMs are available for different meteorological years (1999, 2003, 2005, 2007 and average year)
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
National emission inventories available on line
Available on GAINS-Italia online, following this link http://gains-it.bologna.enea.it/gains/IT/index.login In the group ‘All scenarios’ with the following name: ‘NAT_CLE_NOCP’ for NOCP_2010 scenario ‘Baseline_2012_new_ev’ for BASELINE_2012 scenario ‘NAT_SEN_2013’ for SEN_2013 scenario
NOCP_2010 national scenario used as reference scenario for Italian position in the revision of the Gothenburg protocol BASELINE_2012 national scenario used for bilateral meeting with IIASA in 2012 for Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution SEN_2013 national scenario derived from the National Energy Strategy approved in march 2013, not yet regionalized
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Emission scenarios: NOX
In the last scenario (SEN_2013) there is an increase in total NOX emissions respect to the NOCP_2010 scenario. Total NOX emission trend reflects the trend in the road transport sector where an increase in emissions is observed due to the update of Euro 5 Emission Factors from diesel cars and light duty.
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Emission scenarios: NH3
A reduction in total NH3 emissions in the last scenario (SEN_2013) respect to the NOCP scenario. The trend is driven by the trend in N fertilizer consumption at the year 2010.
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Emission scenarios: N2O
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Progress of Gothenburg Protocol
NH3 target should be respected while for NOX it will depend on the successful implementation of Euro 6 standards
Some application of the model
Scenario: NOCP_2010 Control strategy: LNF (normally not applied) to 100% of the animals
Total Nitrogen deposition
Reference scenario LNF-modified scenario
% of reduction of total nitrogen deposition
% of reduction of reduced nitrogen deposition
Year 2020
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Scenario: NOCP_2010 Control strategy: reduction of 50% of animal and dairy consumption
Reference scenario Diet50%-modified scenario
Total Nitrogen deposition
% of reduction of total nitrogen deposition
% of reduction of reduced nitrogen deposition
Year 2020
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Scenario: NOCP_2010 Control strategy: reduction of 50% of animal and dairy consumption and LNF to 100% of the animals
Reference scenario Diet50%+LNF-modified scenario
% of reduction of total nitrogen deposition
% of reduction of reduced nitrogen deposition
Year 2020
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Total Nitrogen deposition
«NitroFlussi» Model
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
An integrated model developed in Italy under the MINNI project
• The tool is based on Miterra-Europe model
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development How do the model works?
Nitro Flussi Model
Excel 2007 sheet: 20 sheet with same format (one per region)
Simply modifiable by the user
Different sections to introduce possible mitigation measures
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
- Able to evaluate the efficacy of the application of different measures
- Able to evaluate the impacts of nitrogen application on water and from water to atmosphere
- For the province scale of the model requests high resolution data
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
The model
Criteria
Definition at province scale;
Crops divided in 3 main categories: pasture, arable, horticultural + fruits crops;
Consistent with national emission inventory;
For nitrate leaching based on a schematic approach;
Time dynamic of nitrogen application to the soil is considered;
sludge
Solid manure
fertilizers
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Nitrates Directive, aimed to reduce water pollution caused or induced by nitrate from agricultural sources. The Directive requires Member States to apply agricultural action programme measures throughout their whole territory or within discrete nitrate vulnerable zones (NVZ’s). Action programme measures are required to promote best practice in the use and storage of fertiliser and manure by 4 key measures: • Limiting inorganic N fertiliser application to crop requirements. • Limiting organic manure applications. • Seasonal restrictions on the application of slurry, manure sand sludge on sandy and
shallow soils. • Maintenance of farm records that encompass cropping, livestock numbers and
fertiliser management.
Scenarios applied
Low Nitrogen Feeding with two efficacy levels: medium (7% Nreduction) and high (15% Nreduction) Diet 50% reduction of animal and dairy consumption
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
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N_NH3 N_NO2 N_NOx N-runoff N_leaching
LNF-medium efficacy scenario
LNF-high efficacy scenario
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
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N_NH3 N_NO2 N_NOx N_runoff N_leaching
Diet50% reduction scenario
Nitrate Directive scenario
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
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LNF_high Nitrate_D diet
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LNF_high Nitrate_D diet
NH3
N2O
NOx
Impacts of the scenarios on emissions
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
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LNF_high Nitrate_D diet
N_runoff
N_leaching
Impacts of the scenarios on Nitrogen in water
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Conclusions
About the Gothenburg targets at the year 2020, NH3 target should be respected while for NOX it will depend on the successful implementation of Euro 6 standards Next target levels will be more on sectors not yet considered enough, like agriculture in fact agricultural sector shows some margins of emission reductions Impacts of the economic crisis on emission trends for ammonia, following fertilizers consumption, are detected by the new national scenario From GAINS-Italy application, relatively low impacts on nitrogen deposition of low nitrogen feeding scenarios, even if applied to the total animal number Higher levels of nitrogen deposition reduction are in the more critical areas of the country Higher impacts of reduced Nitrogen deposition can be achieved by change in dietary habits, assuming that these are followed by proportional animal production Results on reduced meat and dairy consumption obtained by GAINS-Italy confirmed by the Nitro-flussi model: human diet change is more efficient than low nitrogen feeding Nitrate Directive scenario very efficient in reducing nitrogen leaching, but not in reducing N emissions in air
Italian national agency for new technologies,
energy and sustainable economic development
Thank you for your attention
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