Regional Florida Catastrophic Planning:Focus on South Florida, including the
Herbert Hoover Dike Region
April 5, 2007
Welcome• Carla Boyce, Information and Planning Chief,
Florida Division of Emergency Management• Rand Napoli, Lead Planner, IEM
Overview
Florida Catastrophic Planning Project Goals Phase 1: To develop a regional response and recovery
plan for the counties and communities surrounding Lake Okeechobee in the event of a Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD) failure.
Phase 2: To develop a regional response and recovery plan, along w/decision making tools/matrices for a catastrophic hurricane impacting South Florida.
Scenario-Driven Planning Workshops
Scenario-Driven Planning
The scenario sets a “catastrophic bar” to establish the necessary capacity of the plans.
Participants at all levels of government contribute to the planning solutions.
Operational knowledge and experience make the resulting plans more viable for response and recovery activities.
Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning
Project Purpose Planning Team will assist the State in a host of
planning activities• Direct technical assistance to target counties• Conduct workshops, meetings & research• Coordinate w/State, local, tribal, federal, private
enterprise, non-profit and Federal stakeholders
Ensure a “local up” approach that results in regionally sound, comprehensive and cohesive planning efforts
Overview of Florida Catastrophic Planning
Project Purpose Develop decision matrices & identify resource
shortfalls that can focus additional planning activities
Examine policies and procedures to identify challenges to coordinated response and recovery activities
Comprehensive & Cohesive Planning
County Annexes• Comprehensive Emergency Management Plans• Herbert Hoover Dike Annexes• Catastrophic Plan Annexes
Regional Annexes• HHD Annex• Catastrophic Annex
Regional Evacuation Studies• Behavioral Studies• Vulnerability Assessment
Statewide Sheltering Plans
Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner
Local Planning Begun
Tribal
Plans
Tribal CEMP
Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner
Technical Assistance
2 member FEMA team
1 Technical Lead
7 member Florida team• 3 working w/Tallahassee• 4 assigned to South Florida
Workshops & Exercises
November 2006 – HHD Kickoff
February 2007 – Regional Workshop joining Phase 1 and Phase 2
March 15, 2007– Agency Head & Emergency Coordinating Officer Project Orientation
April 2007 – State-Level Workshop
Workshops & Exercises
May 2007 – Statewide Hurricane Exercise
June 2007 – Regional Workshop in Miami-Dade (local focus)
Fall 2007 – State-Federal Workshop
Winter 2007/2008 – Second Regional Workshop
Spring 2008 – Target Completion & Preparation for Statewide Exercise in May of ‘08
Up Next – Carla Boyce, Plans Chief – FDEM
The Scenario – Hurricane OnoCoordinated Research, Realistic, Comprehensive
Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono
Concerns
Inland Flooding from high rainfall totals
Storm Surge
Cities of Okeechobee, Pahokee, Belle Glade, South Bay, Moore Haven, Clewiston, Brighton Indian Reservation
Canal and River Flooding
Port Mayaca, St. Lucie Canal, Kissimmee River, Caloosahatchee River
Herbert Hoover Dike Breaches
Projected ConsequencesCoordinated Analysis,
Guided by Subject Matter Experts
Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences
The damage in this discussion results only from breaches of the Herbert Hoover Dike (HHD). This discussion does not consider the damage caused by wind, which is covered in the section on The Broader South Florida Scenario, or the affects of lake surge or precipitation
Approximately 130 homes are flooded and some 600 more are surrounded by water as a result of the failure of the S80 structure in Martin County. The latter homes are cut off from normal access routes, making access to supplies or emergency services more difficult.
Herbert Hoover Dike & S80 Consequences
From Breaches and Structure Failure ONLY
In Reach 1 (Palm Beach County), the residences of approximately 4,700 households are flooded to a depth of five to thirteen feet.
In Reach 2 (Glades, Hendry, and Palm Beach County), the homes of approximately 4,800 households are within the area that would be covered by one to six feet of water.
Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences
Agency Location Depth in (ft)
Belle Glade Police Department Belle Glade 4–5
Clewiston Police Department Clewiston 4–5
Hendry Co. Sheriff Sub-Office Clewiston 1
Pahokee Police Department Pahokee 4–5
Royal Palm Beach Police Department Royal Palm Beach 4–5
Law Enforcement Facilities
Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences
Fire Departments
Name Location Depth in (ft)
Clewiston Volunteer F.D. Clewiston 1
Pahokee F.D. Pahokee 4–5
Fire Station 71, PBC Palm Beach Co. 4–5
Royal Palm Beach F.D. Royal Palm Beach 4–5
Herbert Hoover Dike Consequences
Utilities (Gas/Electric)
Name Location Depth in (ft)
Glades Gas and Electric Belle Glade 4–5
Clewiston Substation Clewiston 1
Clewiston Switching Station Clewiston 1
Gator Generating Pahokee 4–5
Osceola Co-generation Pahokee 4–5
Planning Scenario – Path of Hurricane Ono
Consequence Projections
CountyPercent with No Damage
Percent with Minor
Damage
Percent with
Moderate Damage
Percent with
Severe Damage
PercentDestroyed
Percent with Any Damage
Broward 0.08% 1.36% 8.56% 36.05% 53.95% 99.92%
Collier 94.96% 3.87% 1.04% 0.10% 0.03% 5.04%
Glades 4.33% 9.98% 22.40% 23.75% 39.54% 95.67%
Hendry 8.72% 14.74% 21.13% 19.74% 35.66% 91.28%
Lee 90.82% 7.55% 1.45% 0.14% 0.04% 9.18%
Martin 32.32% 32.61% 22.24% 8.73% 4.10% 67.68%
Miami-Dade 1.78% 5.87% 14.47% 36.28% 41.60% 98.22%
Monroe 96.95% 2.56% 0.46% 0.03% 0.01% 3.05%
Okeechobee 16.45% 17.24% 22.58% 16.82% 26.90% 83.55%
Palm Beach 0.30% 2.46% 9.57% 33.47% 54.20% 99.70%
Total 18.72% 4.91% 9.81% 27.88% 38.68% 81.28%
Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category
Consequence Projections
Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category
CountyNumber of Structures in County
Total Structures Affected
Number of Structures
with No Damage
Number of Structures with Minor Damage
Number of Structures
with Moderate Damage
Number of Structures
with Severe Damage
Number of Structures Destroyed
Broward 464,079 463,711 368 6,330 39,702 167,294 250,384
Collier 92,935 4,686 88,249 3,595 968 95 29
Glades 5,279 5,051 228 527 1,182 1,254 2,087
Hendry 11,599 10,588 1,011 1,710 2,451 2,290 4,137
Lee 193,979 17,802 176,177 14,652 2,813 265 71
Martin 53,274 36,055 17,219 17,373 11,847 4,651 2,183
Miami-Dade 531,131 521,667 9,464 31,188 76,840 192,677 220,962
Monroe 43,366 1,324 42,042 1,109 200 12 3
Okeechobee 14,526 12,136 2,390 2,505 3,280 2,443 3,908
Palm Beach 397,425 396,227 1,198 9,776 38,022 133,020 215,409
Total 1,807,593 1,469,245 338,348 88,766 177,305 504,002 699,173
Consequence Projections
CountyPercent with No Damage
Percent with Minor
Damage
Percent with
Moderate Damage
Percent with
Severe Damage
PercentDestroyed
Percent with Any Damage
Broward 8% 0% 2% 37% 52% 92%
Collier 88% 7% 4% 1% 0% 12%
Glades 1% 2% 11% 45% 42% 99%
Hendry 2% 4% 14% 44% 36% 98%
Lee 78% 14% 6% 2% 0% 22%
Martin 14% 16% 27% 34% 11% 89%
Miami-Dade 7% 1% 3% 38% 51% 93%
Monroe 90% 6% 3% 1% 0% 10%
Okeechobee 7% 11% 22% 37% 23% 93%
Palm Beach 7% 0% 2% 35% 55% 93%
Percent of Building Stock by Wind Damage Category
Consequence Projections
Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category
CountyNumber of
Structures in County
Total Structures Affected
Number of Structures with
No Damage
Number of Structures with Minor
Damage
Number of Structures
with Moderate Damage
Number of Structures with Severe
Damage
Number of Structures Destroyed
Broward 463,866 463,849 17 796 11,665 111,965 339,636
Collier 92,888 9,844 83,044 7,023 2,323 406 139
Glades 5,273 5,230 43 184 657 1,260 3,135
Hendry 11,603 11,335 268 830 1,911 2,655 5,935
Lee 193,905 36,436 157,469 27,059 7,740 1,302 409
Martin 53,251 47,952 5,299 11,861 15,565 12,272 8,277
Miami-Dade 530,920 529,657 1,263 5,052 24,254 142,045 358,517
Monroe 43,366 3,602 39,764 2,507 888 156 51
Okeechobee 14,524 13,427 1,097 1,620 2,679 2,935 6,195
Palm Beach 397,232 397,182 50 1,155 10,731 89,395 296,094
Total 1,806,828 1,518,514 288,314 58,087 78,412 364,392 1,018,387
Consequence Projections
Number of Buildings by Wind Damage Category
CountyNumber of
Structures in County
Total Structures Affected
Number of Structures with
No Damage
Number of Structures with Minor
Damage
Number of Structures
with Moderate Damage
Number of Structures with Severe
Damage
Number of Structures Destroyed
Broward 463,866 463,849 17 796 11,665 111,965 339,636
Collier 92,888 9,844 83,044 7,023 2,323 406 139
Glades 5,273 5,230 43 184 657 1,260 3,135
Hendry 11,603 11,335 268 830 1,911 2,655 5,935
Lee 193,905 36,436 157,469 27,059 7,740 1,302 409
Martin 53,251 47,952 5,299 11,861 15,565 12,272 8,277
Miami-Dade 530,920 529,657 1,263 5,052 24,254 142,045 358,517
Monroe 43,366 3,602 39,764 2,507 888 156 51
Okeechobee 14,524 13,427 1,097 1,620 2,679 2,935 6,195
Palm Beach 397,232 397,182 50 1,155 10,731 89,395 296,094
Total 1,806,828 1,518,514 288,314 58,087 78,412 364,392 1,018,387
Up Next – Rand Napoli, Lead Planner
South Florida Catastrophic PlanningWorkshops
Regional Catastrophic Planning Workshop
June 2007 Regional Workshop• Involve local, tribal, state, federal, private
industry, and other non-governmental members of the emergency management community.
• Continue the process of developing consistent regional plans for a catastrophic hurricane event in South Florida, including a significant breach of the Herbert Hoover Dike.
Workshop Structure
Scenario-driven planning workshop• not an exercise• Worked toward consistent planning assumptions, issues and
constraints
Continuous breakout rooms Planning Team Unified Command
• Provided clarification, addressed conflicts, identified common threads & gaps to bring back to State level workshop
Morning plenary briefings• Allowed visibility to all participants on common issues & needs• Allowed input across disciplines• Identified need for additional participation from other
disciplines/stakeholders
Up Next – Carla Boyce
Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls
Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls
Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario• What do we need to do?
Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability• What do we need to do it?
Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls
Determine available resources within local, regional or States inventories, including pre-disaster contracts• What do we already have?
Establish protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gaps and identify resource limitations• How are we going to get our hands on what
we have, and how will we get more?
Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls
Integrate with other scenario-based resource planning schemes across disciplines• What does this mean for the rest of the
response and recovery activities?
Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes
The Word Problem
SF impacted by a Category 5 Hurricane making landfall 35mi N of Miami producing upwards of 22” of rainfall in and north of Lake Okeechobee. Winds and surge damage or destroy nearly 700,000 structures. Note: this doesn’t include the Counties to the North West of Lake Okeechobee where the storm exits FL as a Category 2.
Winds from the storm leave large amounts of debris in canals used by SFWMD to control water movement in South Florida making it difficult to impossible to reduce flood waters impacting the environment, economy, citizens and visitors. Flood waters are expected to remain for as many as 22 days – or more
Key Assumptions
Estimated Population – 6,358,934
2,867,295 people are projected to evacuate in advance of the storm
796,214 people are expected to seek public shelter (10’s of miles)
3,826,822 homes will be destroyed
Up to 3,000,000 customers will be w/o power from Miami-Dade to Indian River on the East and Manatee/Sarasota on the West
Pick ONE – Break It Down
Pick ONE decision point and break it down• Clearly identify the GOAL• Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information
needed on which to base a decision• Document what you know from past
experience• Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check• Repeat as necessary• Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your
staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers
Up Next - Rand Napoli, Lead Planner
Pick ONE – Break It Down
Pick ONE decision point and break it down• Clearly identify the GOAL
• Complete Primary Search & Rescue in 24 Hrs
• Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision
• # Strike Teams• # of hours/day – operational period• # of structures damaged or destroyed
Pick ONE – Break It Down
• Document what you know from past experience
• Can’t safely search at night• How many workers to safely search a structure• How much time to safely search a structure• Deployment time – (notification to operational)
• Calculate/Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check• Repeat as necessary• Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your
staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers
Example – Search and Rescue
Structures per Strike Teams per Op Period 500 County Structures
Strike Teams
Personnel
Hours per Day 12 Miami-Dade 352,332 940 18,800
Structures per Strike Team per Day 500 Broward 335,252 895 17,900
Palm Beach 293,881 784 15,680
Hours Allowed 24 Martin 8,368 23 460
Deployment Time 6 Okeechobee 6,185 17 340
Hours Available 18 Hendry 5,916 16 320
Glades 3,134 9 180
Lee 408 2 40
Monroe 50 1 20
7.2 Total 1,005,526 2,687 53,740
Examples - SAR
Structures per Strike Teams per Op Period 500 County Structures Strike Teams Personnel
Hours per Day 12 Miami-Dade 352,332 257 5,140
Structures per Strike Team per Day 500 Broward 335,252 244 4,880
Palm Beach 293,881 214 4,280
Hours Allowed 72 Martin 8,368 7 140
Deployment Time 6Okeechobe
e 6,185 5 100
Hours Available 66 Hendry 5,916 5 100
Glades 3,134 3 60
Lee 408 1 20
Monroe 50 1 20
7.2 Total 1,005,526 737 14,740
Pick ONE – Break It Down
Pick ONE decision point and break it down• Clearly identify the GOAL
• Provide 3 Hot Meals/day for survivors in impacted area
• Identify the CRITICAL criteria/information needed on which to base a decision
• How many survivors remained in the area– Approximately 4.3 Million
• Quantity of food/meal• How many staff required to prepare/deliver
Pick ONE – Break It Down
• Document what you know from past experience
• Operational Period• Deployment time – (notification to operational)• Staff required to prepare X number meals
• Adjust/Recalculate/Cross Check/ - Repeat• Don’t forget LOGISTICAL support for your
staff, mutual aid assets, volunteers
Meal count estimation formula
How to estimate meal counts for the first 14 days• Category 1 – Population X 15%• Category 2 – Population X 33%• Category 3 – Population X 90%• Category 4 – Population X 350%
For estimates past 14 days use actual reported meals counts for Day 1 through Day 7
# Meals = # resources required
Examples - LE
Intersection Control
Critical IntersectionsNumber of Intersections Manpower Needed
PersonnelRequired
Major (>6 lanes) 6 6 36
Minor (<=6 lanes) 3 3 9
Railroad Crossings 1 1 1
Total 0
Number of Shifts 3
Total Personnel Required 138
Examples - Law Enforcement/Security
Roadway Security
Access TypeMiles of Critical
Road Miles of CoveragePersonnel Required
Low 5 .5 10
Medium 15 1 15
High 25 2 50
Total 75
Number of Shifts 3
Total Personnel Required 225
Examples – Law Enforcement/Security
Facility/Infrastructure Type Number Officers per FacilityPersonnel
Required
Shelter 25 1 25
Hospital 5 4 20
Banks 25 2 50
PODs 10 2 20
Consumer-Related Facilities 20 1 20
Governmental Facilities 25 1 25
Public Utilities 15 1 15
Total for Infrastructure/Facilities 175
Total Personnel per Shift 525
Up Next – Carla Boyce, Plans Chief - FDEM
Gap Gap
Special medical needs evacuees who will need shelter (unit: people)
Qualified staff identified to staff special medical needs shelters (unit: medical staff/shelter staff)
Increase in people seeking medical care following the event (unit: people)
Medical supplies to support surge and critical operations (unit: days)
Qualified staff to staff special medical needs shelters (unit: medical staff/shelter staff)
Medical surge capacity
Medical supplies to support surge and critical operations (unit: days)
<<<insert Local Jurisdiction name here>>>
MEDICAL
Mission Scope: Injured or ill from the event are rapidly and appropriately cared for. Continuity of care is maintained for non-incident related illness or injury. For this worksheet, a healthcare facility (HCF) is an acute care hospital, a nursing home, a group home or a long-term care facility; a special medical needs evacuee can be defined as requiring care that cannot be provided in a general population shelter but not requiring hospitalization.
Readiness Indicators
Special medical needs evacuees who will need shelter (unit: people)
Qualified staff to staff special medical needs shelters (unit: medical staff/shelter staff)
Medical surge capacity
Medical supplies to support surge and critical operations (unit: days)
Medical surge capacity
Medical supplies available to support surge and critical operations (unit: days)
Special medical needs shelter capacity (unit: people)
Qualified staff identified to staff special medical needs shelters (unit: medical staff/shelter staff)
Yes No
Do all HCFs* have evacuation plans in place?
Are shelters identified to support special medical needs** populations?
Does the jurisdiction have an evacuation plan that coordinates medical transportation resources? Yes No
Capability Over Time
Target Capability at D+7 Capability at D+30
Notes
Special medical needs evacuees who will need shelter (unit: people)
Asset Assessment
Gap
Special medical needs evacuees who will need shelter (unit: people)
Response
Yes No
Special medical needs shelter capacity (unit: people)
Medical supplies available to support surge and critical operations (unit: days)
Target Capability
Medical supplies to support surge and critical operations (unit: days)
Qualified staff identified to staff special medical needs shelters (unit: medical staff/shelter staff)
Increase in people seeking medical care following the event (unit: people) Medical surge capacity
Qualified staff identified to staff special medical needs shelters (unit: medical staff/shelter staff)
Indicator
Yes No Does the jurisdiction have a mass fatality plan?
Has the jurisdiction identified HCFs in evacuation zones?
Does the jurisdiction have an up-to-date written communications plan with HCFs?
Has the jurisdiction surveyed HCFs for back-up power and emergency supply needs? Yes No
Yes No
Yes No
Next Steps – April 16th & 17th
Preparation/Assignments
2007 Workshop Objectives
Bring State & Federal stakeholders to the table• Agency heads• Support agencies/partners• Private enterprise, faith-based and non-profit partners
Continue cohesive planning across agencies
Focused on realistic needs/resource shortfalls of the locals
2007 Workshop Objectives
Assess required capabilities based on Catastrophic Scenario (State Perspective).
Develop scalable and adaptable methods, formulas, or matrices that indicate the quantity and type of assets needed to meet the capability (tools of the trade).
Determine available resources within regional or States inventories, including pre-disaster contracts.
Decision Matrices & Resource Shortfalls
Identify resource limitations.
Establish plans, protocols & policies that clearly articulate how to meet both required capabilities and fill gaps.
Sustain the planning process to facilitate updates and changes.
In Preparation – Food for Thought
Making the workshops effective.
Based on things identified at the local focused workshop.
Support of decision makers, municipalities, other ECOs, and Agency Heads.
ESF18 – Economic Damage Assessment (HHD)
One of the most significant impacts of the scenario will be the damages to agricultural interests in the Lake Okeechobee area.
This translates into significant economic impacts, locally, statewide and even nationally.
Preparation will make the breakout sessions at the April workshop more effective.
Infrastructure – Debris clearing in waterways
Though the focus is “local up” this particular issue crosses multiple jurisdictional lines.
Planning for this issue will require strong support from the State level to coordinate and identify local impacts.
Preparation will not only make the breakout sessions at the April workshop more effective, but will assist planning efforts at the local level.
ESF2 - Communications
Common throughout ALL breakout sessions was interoperable communications.
Emergency management personnel and responders alike seemed unfamiliar withthe State Communications plan.
All are seeking information & training on assets like MARC units, EDICS, FIN, & EDWARDS.
Assignment – ESF17
Disposal of livestock in large quantities.
Care of surviving livestock in flooded areas.
Animal control and rescue.
Updated Info
www.floridacatastrophicplanning.com
www.FloridaDisaster.org/CatastrophicPlanning
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