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May 2016

A collection of posts from the Ericsson Networked Society Blog

Reflections on 10 hot consumer trends 2016

ERICSSON CONSUMERLAB

CONTENTS PAGE PAGE

1. THE LIFESTYLE NETWORK EFFECT 4Consumers drive global dominance – or new ecosystems? Michael Björn

2. STREAMING NATIVES 6Born to stream – growing up in the YouTube age Rebecka Cedering Ångström

3. AI ENDS THE SCREEN AGE 8The smartphone is dead. Long live the smartphone! Michael Björn

4. VIRTUAL GETS REAL 9The killer app for virtual reality: shopping! Michael Björn

5. SENSING HOMES 10Today, my home dumbed down Michael Björn

6. SMART COMMUTERS 11I am the smart commuter Rebecka Cedering Ångström

7. EMERGENCY CHAT 12Is society ready to be networked for emergencies? Michael Björn

8. INTERNABLES 14Internalizing wearables Michael Björn

9. EVERYTHING GETS HACKED 15Everything didn’t actually get hacked – yet Michael Björn

10. NETIZEN JOURNALISTS 16Avoid or engage? Rebecka Cedering Ångström

AUTHORMICHAEL BJÖRN

> Head of Research at Ericsson ConsumerLab

> Adjunct professor at the Lund University School of Economics and Business Management

> Ph.D. in data modeling from the University of Tsukuba in Japan

As part of his work in studying global consumer trends and the process of assimilation of ICT into everyday life, Michael has been driving Ericsson ConsumerLab’s annual 10 Hot Consumer Trends reports since 2011.

Throughout his career, Michael has also maintained a focus on writing which, among other things, has resulted in academic papers, a book on situational marketing and two novels. He is currently a regular contributor to Tokyo-based monthly music magazine Strange Days as well as Ericsson’s Networked Society Blog.

AUTHORREBECKA CEDERING ÅNGSTRÖM

> Senior Advisor at Ericsson ConsumerLab

> MSc Industrial Design, Luleå University of Technology

Rebecka is responsible for conducting international consumer research, and has worked extensively with increasingly important topics such as privacy and security. She has been working with 10 Hot Consumer Trends since 2013.

Coming from a background in product development, it has always been natural for Rebecka to work from a consumer perspective and investigate how emerging behaviors influence societies.

She is the author of several ConsumerLab reports and a writer for the Ericsson Networked Society Blog. She has been an invited speaker in multiple forums such as global media events, industry conferences and numerous customer meetings.

Introduction

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Voice of the consumerEricsson ConsumerLab has more than 20 years’ experience studying people’s behaviors and values, including the way they act and think about ICT products and services. Ericsson ConsumerLab provides unique insights on market and consumer trends.

Ericsson ConsumerLab gains its knowledge through a global consumer research program based on interviews with 100,000 individuals each year, in more than 40 countries – statistically representing the views of 1.1 billion people.

Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used, and hundreds of hours are spent with consumers from different cultures. To be close to the market and consumers, Ericsson ConsumerLab has representatives in all regions where Ericsson is present, developing a thorough global understanding of the ICT market and business models.

All our reports can be found at: www.ericsson.com/consumerlab

Can consumer research predict the future as well as monkeys?

The common view is that consumers have no idea what the future holds, and for this reason, future-focused consumer research is meaningless. The average consumer has no insight into these matters – so the story goes. But in reality, none of us has a clue about the future; in fact, experts are often more clueless than anybody else.

The most well-known example of course, is the reference to monkeys vs. stock market experts, which proves that monkeys have a tendency to come out as winners on a regular basis.

So, maybe you should be listening to consumer research – it may pinpoint some uncomfortable truths that experts in your industry fail to see!

Our report, 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2016 makes some rather bold statements, and despite our confidence in their validity, we have been taken aback by the speed at which some of these trends have already manifested.

Excitingly, the predictions made in our consumer trends research have a track record for becoming true. As an example, we introduced the Lifestyle Network Effect, where consumers seek out the most used services in order to utilize the intelligence of large crowds. Today, there is much debate about some platforms having more than a billion users.

We focused on the consumer readiness for smartphone evolution with the AI Ends The Screen Age trend, which has turned into quite a news piece in its own right.

In addition, we also talked about Sensing Homes, since we noticed that many consumers do not necessarily perceive smart home solutions as accessible or easy to use. Now, we already see news about consumers losing interest in the traditional approach to smart homes.

However, trends are not really about predictions, as such. Whether they are proven right or wrong may not even be particularly fundamental. What is crucial is that they focus on important discussions currently taking place that could contribute to shaping our future.

In a similar vein to those last year, we have blogged about what we saw on the Ericsson Networked Society Blog. Here, we have collected some of those blogs in order for you to get another perspective and our personal opinions about these trends. We want to continue the discussion – and we hope you do too!

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Consumers drive global dominance – or new ecosystems?

Do you use crowd intelligence in everyday life? Maybe you have not thought about your behavior in this way, but our research at Ericsson ConsumerLab shows that in fact you probably do.

The sharing economy is booming and, of the people we studied, one in three is already involved in some part of it. A third is using multiple instant messaging platforms. Almost half use multiple social networks. All of these are examples of consumers actively using crowd intelligence.

A social network with many people means high potential for good advice; the same goes for instant messaging. A sharing economy with many participants means lots of offers and even more user reviews. When many participate, you stand to benefit from their experiences. A lot. Research for Ericsson ConsumerLab’s 10 Hot Consumer Trends 2016 shows that 4 out of 5 now actively seek the most used services in order to benefit from the intelligence of really big crowds, and we call this trend the Lifestyle Network Effect.

But is it only a good thing?

Our research in this case covered 24 countries and was representative of over 1 billion consumers. And that number is relevant – 1 billion is the new baseline. As crowd intelligence improves with more participants, consumers increasingly flock to the most popular services. A handful of brands have billions of users; others, rather fewer.

Google already has seven products with a billion users, and Apple recently scrambled to show that 1 billion people use Apple devices.

WhatsApp also has a billion users. And parent company Facebook’s own billion is even more impressive, given that this billion logs in every day. No other social network has a billion user reach, not even Tencent’s QQ in China. In fact, the only other member of the overall billion users club is Microsoft (for both Windows and Microsoft Office). In that light, Mark Zuckerberg wanting to have 5 billion users by 2030 almost seems logical. Never mind that it is far more people than even have internet access today, or even more than the current world population aged 15-64.

But what will this dominance mean in a world where everything is becoming networked at an increasing pace, and lifestyle network effects blow like tornadoes through all industries? When cars get connected, passengers will want to benefit from collective experiences in order to have safer and more pleasant journeys. When using connected power grids, who wouldn’t want some extra intelligence to save both money and the environment? Wellness is crowd-optimizing your habits via smartphones, fitness trackers and other wearables; and although similar effects may be slower to spread to healthcare, it is probably just a matter of time.

One extreme view of the future could be of the billion users club members playing a global Monopoly board game.

1. The Lifestyle Network Effect

When cars get connected, passengers will want to benefit from collective experiences in order to have safer and more pleasant journeys

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Winners, in effect, take over the users in any and all other industries as soon as these industries become sufficiently networked. We end up in a world where a small group of companies cut across all industries on all continents.

An opposing future view could be one where consumers’ need to control their personal information creates a new ecosystem with independent intermediaries between consumers and the big internet brands. In a 2015 Ericsson ConsumerLab report about internet and wellness, consumers implicitly saw a new ecosystem entailing cooperation between several parties. However, they also wanted to retain control over the flow of their personal information. Even though authorities were seen as the second largest wellness service provider, as many as 66 percent wanted full control over the dissemination of their information by authorities.

In this scenario, the idea of an internet access provider takes on a whole new meaning – not just providing access to connectivity but helping users manage access rights for all the services they are using. Such an access provider stores personal data, and when I as a consumer want to change social network service for example, I just close the access rights I had given to the previous social network brand. Then, open the corresponding access rights to the new brand.

As a consumer, I can easily switch between service brands that all compete on equal terms, and I get to keep my personal data history intact while switching. The number of users of any specific brand will still be important when it comes to crowd intelligence, and probably also to advertisers. But entry barriers will be very much lower for companies who want to provide services.

A more realistic view on the future may lie between these two extreme points. What do you think? Will consumers drive global dominance, or new ecosystems?

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Born to stream – growing up in the YouTube age

A few weeks ago, I walked past a room in my house filled with giggling seven year olds in front of a mirror. Nothing strange here, I am quite used to having giggling kids in my home, but the mirror thing was new. So when I got a chance, I asked the kids what they were doing and got the answer: “Oh, we just did our own video blog.”

2. Streaming natives

That caught me a little by surprise. I know the kids like to stream a lot of content from different sources, but this was the first time I heard them talking about producing their own. Still it was only a pretend game, but isn’t that the way it always starts? That you play around with the idea first?

Since then, I have explored YouTube together with the kids on several occasions. To look at what they are watching: bloggers, music videos, fan-made vids, and more. It is quite fascinating to explore this world from their perspective – I can highly recommend it. And I realize it is also very different from my own YouTube behavior (mainly I watch it for learning, news, reviews, movie and gaming trailers, and of course, the occasional John Oliver show).

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400+

There is no surprise that the experience of video is different between generations. But over the past two years, we have seen a shift in how teens stream video. In our Trends for 2016 we highlight this, describing how a new generation is emerging. Almost half of all 16 to 19 year olds stream video on YouTube for at least 1 hour per day. Around 20 percent do it for 3 hours or more. Compared to the previous generation, the Digital Natives, this is something new. One of the explanations is that this new generation is the first to grow up with video streaming services as a norm. Last year, YouTube turned 10 years old. Meaning it has been around since the teens in our survey were below the age of 10 themselves.

And YouTube continues to influence the young. Today, it contains a silly amount of content. The latest number I’ve got is that 400 hours of video are uploaded every minute. But it is not only about the content; it is also about reach. The kids and teens today are growing up with the idea that their self-broadcasting YouTube stars can evolve beyond their channels. An example is Felix Kjellberg, also known as PewDiePie, who now has his own YouTube Red featured series called Scare PewDiePie.

Oh, we just did our own video blog

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Almost half of all 16 to 19 year olds stream video on YouTube at least 1 hour per day

Or, a much more relevant example in my household comes from the major music contest in Sweden, called “Melodifestivalen” (which, by the way, was broadcast in VR mode). It’s a “must see” if you have seven year olds at home. This year’s hosts, Gina Dirawi and William Spetz, both started their careers by posting their personal videos on YouTube back in 2009 – a fact clearly noted by the kids, as it was presented during the show.

So there is no question in my mind that this generation will bring this tool with them as they grow up. They will implement the possibility to stream video in new and exciting ways, at school, at work, you name it. But don’t expect it to stay at streaming pre-uploaded content from a single source. As many of the Streaming Natives use mobile devices as their prime device, and due to services like Periscope, we will likely see live streaming grow.

And beyond that, this generation will probably also be quick to embrace VR streaming as it becomes cheaper too. Think about it, immersive 360 videos shared in real time! It will be a thrilling development, and perhaps one day you’ll also find yourself in front of a mirror giggling about a broadcast idea.

Two days after the report was released, I was on the Aaron Rand radio show in Canada. Aaron asked: “If someone told you that smartphones would be dead in five years […] wouldn’t you think they were crazy?”

I replied that I agree.

Still, there may be some substance to the hyperbole. We have spent decades getting increasingly involved in interaction with screens – buttons on TV remotes, keyboards, then the mouse for the PC, and finally touch for smartphones and tablets. However, with artificial intelligence (AI), there is now an alternative that not only works reasonably well but that consumers also show interest in.

Should we be scared of AI? Long-term ethical issues certainly need to be carefully considered but, in the shorter term, our research indicates that what really scares people is still other people; whether they are withdrawing cash from an ATM on a dark street corner, being stalked online, or, as it turns out, confiding sensitive information. A third of our respondents would already rather trust an AI interface than a human for sensitive matters.

Rather than just helping us do things, screens are also about to get in the way of some activities. The most futuristic product right now may actually be the most unassuming one: The Amazon Echo is an AI speaker that, ahem, speaks. In the same vein, people believe they will be able to talk to household appliances like they talk to people. Look mom, no screens!

When half of the smartphone users we interviewed said that the smartphone could be a thing of the past in five years,

3. AI ends the screen age

they were most likely thinking about current generation devices and felt ready for evolution.

Mobile screens are certainly not going away, as young people watch much more streaming video than older people – and smartphones are increasingly becoming a preferred screen for that. This means that people want smartphone screens so big it is almost ridiculous: almost a third want a screen the size of a mini-tablet.

Will we insist on calling a device needing two hands to hold between the ear and the mouth a “phone” five years from now? I wonder!

In fact, I am willing to predict a much quicker death of the smartphone: around 5pm on busy days. My phone just doesn’t last a full day of action. And with 78 percent of those in our survey wanting to worry less about the battery dying, I am not alone.

Although video is a large part of what we do on the internet, it is not everything. In such situations, it would make perfect sense to directly interact with AI-equipped objects or use an AI companion device, rather than a power-hogging screen. In fact, 85 percent of smartphone users think wearable electronic assistants will be commonplace within 5 years.

Not everyone was surprised at the talk of evolution of devices. The contributor at Forbes, for example, said that there is already a lack of innovation in the smartphone space. In fact, the article goes as far as to say that “The smartphone as we know it is dead.”

If the smartphone already is dead, then long live the smartphone!

And may an AI be its wearable companion device!

The smartphone is dead. Long live the smartphone!

When Ericsson ConsumerLab released our 10 Hot Consumer Trends for 2016, the trend AI Ends The Screen Age, in particular, caught the eye of media news sites such as CNBC, which interpreted it as if Ericsson was predicting the death of the smartphone.

85 percent of smartphone users think wearable electronic assistants will be commonplace within 5 years

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The killer app for virtual reality: shopping!

Virtual reality (VR) headsets seem to be all the rage right now. There are dozens of very cheap models that you can slip your smartphone into – and a number of companies are this year releasing high quality VR headsets that do not rely on your smartphone.

4. Virtual gets real

But this is not the first time such headsets have been on the market: Nintendo released their Virtual Boy system already in 1995 – and withdrew it less than a year later. Will VR flop as badly this time round too?

Actually, our research at Ericsson ConsumerLab indicates that VR now stands a good chance of becoming widely accepted – if it goes beyond gaming applications quickly enough.

Respondents in our surveys are interested in VR games, but the most striking result is the range of VR services people show interest in: everything from VR dating and virtual home offices to immersive video experiences of different kinds.

And, most of all, people are interested in shopping.

People usually laugh at this. Shopping seems so trivial and so far removed from high tech. But given that advertising is one of the most pervasive applications of the internet, shopping can be high tech too.

We published a report in 2012 showing that as many as 73 percent of consumers really disliked the fact that they can’t see, touch, or try things when shopping online. Using some high tech to solve that issue makes sense. And in fact, 64 percent were interested in using VR to see items in real size and form when shopping online in our 2015 survey. That was the most popular service of all we tested!

The majority of consumers think VR would be good for online shopping.

But our research also shows that in-store and online shopping are not separate activities – they are intertwined. As a consequence, devices will have to be mobile, unobtrusive and not geeky, in the sense that use should conform reasonably well to current social norms. Whereas walking down the corridors of the local grocery store with your nose so deep into your mobile screen that you constantly bump into other shoppers is socially accepted behavior, walking around with your face covered in black VR headgear, with arms stretched out in front like a zombie, is not.

Luckily, some manufacturers understand the importance of building on current behaviors; the Glyph is, for example, essentially a headphone set. But the headband hides a pair of eyepieces and you can literally slide the headband in front of your eyes and see video in 2D or 3D. It could potentially be used to see the actual size and shape of products online. Using a smartphone. In a store.

As shopping is about to go virtual, we at Ericsson ConsumerLab believe that one of the most important trends to watch is how virtual gets real. For example, half of the smartphone users we surveyed also want a 3D selfie that can be used as an avatar to try on clothes online.

But when virtual gets real, we may not even need to shop for some things. We can instead print them in 3D – such as spoons, toys, and spare parts for appliances. In fact, 44 percent said they even want to print their own food!

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Today, my home dumbed down

Although it has 100-megabit internet connectivity both up and down at flat rate, most of the time that fabulous capacity is just idly sitting there. We play movies and games of course, but the home itself does nothing with the connectivity, because it is dumb.

And it just got dumb beyond help.

I had signed up for a smart home solution from my electricity provider. There was a lot of paperwork and when the smart stuff finally arrived months later, it was just a reader for my electricity meter and a smart plug for a wall electricity outlet. The smart plug can monitor how much of my total electricity is consumed by whatever I connect into that one plug.

After all the paperwork and the long wait, I wasn’t exactly overwhelmed. This would leave the other 30 or so wall outlets as dumb as ever before.

To complicate things, the reader seemed not to fit under the old steel casing covering my electricity meter. But if I didn’t install and activate by a certain date, I would no longer be allowed entry to that hallowed group of people who live in smart homes.

That fateful date is today, and here I am with boxes of smart equipment still unopened; standing with a slightly dumb frown on my face, in my now irrevocably dumb home.

I am almost expecting a market researcher to come knocking and ask me to participate in Ericsson ConsumerLab’s “Connected Homes” survey. The report concludes that the main reason for not being interested in a smart home was a perceived lack of benefits. In my case, that would be an obvious reference to that one smart wall plug.

Had I resisted my urgently perceived lack of benefit and just done the installation, I am sure other services would have been offered to me over time, as a smart home covers many areas. The Ericsson ConsumerLab report shows that among those interested in multiple smart functionalities, two-thirds would like to have just one supplier. Electricity companies were indeed also among the top five suppliers of interest.

But are electricity companies really the best suppliers of smart homes? I do not think so. In fact, I believe there should be no supplier at all. Ideally, internet should be every bit as intrinsic to the home as water pipes and electrical wiring. For this reason, one of Ericsson ConsumerLab’s top consumer trends for 2016 is instead about sensing homes.

Our research indicates that 55 percent of smartphone users believe that within only 5 years, their homes will have embedded sensors that look for construction errors, mold buildup, water leaks and electricity issues.

We may have to fundamentally rethink the concept of a smart home.

Although sensors are becoming part of the bricks and mortar, this process will take some time. But old homes may still become smart without the hurdle of an installation phase, since a majority of smartphone owners also expect the indoor environment to be controlled by connected sensors.

For example, since 64 percent believe that buildings will mimic outdoor light conditions within the next five years, light bulbs could be the perfect place for all things connected in your home. The new generation of LED lights is starting to incorporate sensor technology and may soon also use light to provide high speed wireless connectivity.

If your LED light bulbs already come with an app to set color tone, watch out, there may be a new version of the app that also includes burglar alarm functionality!

Companies like Sony are even putting bluetooth speakers in lightbulbs, so if you think entertainment is part of your smart home that may be another area where installation is no longer necessary!

5. Sensing homes BLUETOOTH

SPEAKERS IN LIGHTBULBS

SMART PLUGS

EMBEDDED SENSORS

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I am the smart commuter

“Uhm, this is the train conductor. We will leave in a few minutes. There is just a queue of trains we need to wait for. However, due to the faulty signals we will only go as far as Solna.” My thoughts? “Argh. Here we go again. Can’t believe it! I need to get off this train.”

I rush for the doors and the next thing I know, I’m standing on a rainy platform, in the middle of nowhere. It is about 4 degrees Celsius and I’m freezing to bits. Naturally, I forgot my mittens on the train, so my fingers feel like popsicles when I text my colleagues that I will take all meetings from home today. Still, I am happy that I listened to my gut feeling and got off that train. Why? Because I know how this goes. You get the information from the speaker system saying that this will only take a few minutes. That is ok, but when they change the final destination you know that something is up.

I have done this so many times I don’t care to count them. That is also why I know that, had I continued with the train, I probably would have made it to work using a mix of buses and trains. But getting home on time would be a totally different story. These things usually take a whole day to fix.

Painful? Yes, but I am not alone. In June 2015 we released a study looking at the commuting situation in London, New York, Sao Paulo and Shanghai. Unsurprisingly, many

commuters experience commuting as stressful, tiresome and even frustrating.

What makes it so painful is not only the stress of catching the bus or the overcrowded platforms. It is also about time and being able to predict how long the commute will take. Actually, commuters spend a lot of time in transit and daily commuting. On average, it is 6.5 hours per week. In fact, we spend more time commuting than we do socializing with friends. And who wouldn’t rather spend time with their friends than sitting idly on a crowded train (or standing on a cold, rainy platform like in my case)? Time is precious and I am not prepared to let faulty signals eat into mine.

But we are smart, my fellow commuters and I. We use technology and all possible services to improve our situation, as we highlight in this year’s set of hot consumer trends. In my case, there is a good app working in my area that can tell me if the train is on time or if a carriage is crowded. I can also check the local news that covers the current situation for all trains on that route. But none of these services can give me all the information I need, especially when I am already on the train.

Like today, I would have wanted the information that the train wasn’t going to make it to Solna, as they announced on the train’s speaker system – I learned that on the platform, two minutes after the train had left. The poor people who stayed onboard probably didn’t find out until it was too late; in between stations, standing motionless waiting for the train queue to move. It was my gut that told me to get off – my app doesn’t provide that type of information.

Commuters want an improvement and are expecting transport companies to offer more and better information to help navigate their way. Of the people we talked to, 86 percent would use personalized services if they were available.

Still, I like to take the train to work, and my reasons for that are many. However, I am looking forward to when I can fully enjoy the trip without risking surprises that leave me standing on a cold and rainy platform. I would like smart information when I need it. Thankfully, today I had my gut to guide me and I now work from home instead of having to try to find alternative route to get home (like my unfortunate neighbor is doing right now).

6. Smart commuters

Commuters spend a lot of time in transit and daily commuting. On average, it is 6.5 hours per week

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Is society ready to be networked for emergencies?

Big rocking movements woke me up. Although it felt like being on an ocean-liner in a storm, I was in fact on a futon on the tatami floor in my house, and the alarm clock showed ten minutes to six. I was experiencing yet another earthquake, although it was strangely slow moving this time.

As my room had no heating and the indoor temperature was close to freezing, I eventually crawled back onto my futon and fell asleep again. It wasn’t until several hours later that I realized I had experienced the worst earthquake in Japan since 1923.

Although the epicenter of this 1995 earthquake was in the vicinity of Kobe, it had woken me up 260 miles away, in the science city of Tsukuba, just northeast of Tokyo.

The woman who would eventually become my wife lived in Kobe. That morning, I tried and tried to call but the lines were all busy, and it took several hours until I managed to confirm

7. Emergency chat

The Emergency Chat trend concludes that 65 percent of smartphone owners are interested in an emergency app, which would alert them in a crisis or disaster, and provide verified, rumor-free information

65%

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One man we interviewed in the Ericsson ConsumerLab research project told us he tried to flee the tsunami. He managed to get in touch with people nearby via a social networking service – using the same phone that was just giving him a busy signal when trying to call – who told him they had found a multi-story building on higher ground. With their instructions, he managed to locate the building and although he had to swim part of the way, managed to get there. He told us that the social networking service saved his life.

In our research, one in two people believe emergency centers will be contactable via social media in as little as three years – and social networking service providers have been quick to respond. When the terrorist attacks happened in Paris last November, it was the first time that Facebook enabled its Safety Check function in an emergency that was not a natural disaster.

But are authorities networking emergency response? What networked emergency services do they see as mandatory? What laws will they need to change? Are they considering the ramifications of a free-of-charge data service corresponding to emergency numbers like 112 and 911?

Consumers are increasingly ready to be networked for emergencies – but is society?

that she was alive. What she lost was instead normalcy – and her job when her employer went bankrupt in the subsequent economic crash that hit Kobe.

16 years later, we were living in Sweden. I had just initiated an Ericsson ConsumerLab research project in Japan when the Tohoku earthquake struck, this time with an epicenter outside Fukushima northeast of Tsukuba. I immediately decided to refocus our project on the effects of the earthquake.

Then I tried calling friends in Tokyo to convince them to flee the area. Having lived roughly 100 miles from the Fukushima nuclear power plant for many years, I had already experienced misinformation during previous incidents, and was not about to believe official statements this time round.

At first, lines were busy – but when I eventually got through, my Japanese friends did not seem to heed my warnings. Only later, I found out that some had actually listened and left Tokyo. However, they had kept quiet about it, so as not to contribute to the spreading of rumors and, in the process, cause others to panic.

In Ericsson ConsumerLab’s 10 Hot Consumer Trends for 2016, the Emergency Chat trend concludes that 65 percent of smartphone owners are interested in an emergency app, which would alert them in a crisis or disaster, and provide verified, rumor-free information. And in situations like the ones I have just described, rumors spread incredibly quickly: phones don’t work; TV news is not specific enough; time is short.

Although many of us view social media as a major source of rumors, it was in fact the need for rumor-free information during the Tohoku earthquake that drove social media services into the mainstream in Japan. As an example, Twitter released data showing a 500 percent surge in Twitter use immediately after the earthquake. Also, the video service “Nico Nico Douga,” which allowed for social commentary on top of the video feed, quickly rose in prominence.

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Internalizing wearables

You may not be aware of it, but I bet that at some point you have suffered from a bit of tachophobia – the abnormal fear of doing something too fast. Don’t worry, you are in good company. When trains started to appear in the late 1820s in England, prospective passengers worried that the human body was simply not built to withstand movement at such incredible speeds – around 15 miles per hour at that time. In fact, some even thought it would not be possible to breathe.

But, with time and familiarity (not to mention the complete lack of respiratory disruption), people internalized the notion of train transport and quickly stopped being tachophobic about the whole thing.

However, technology is now affecting our bodies at speeds where I can feel a bit of tachophobia myself, although our research consistently indicates that many are less worried.

Three years ago, our Ericsson ConsumerLab trend report highlighted the Quantified Self and how consumers increasingly use technology to track their activities. Last year, we concluded that consumers expect significant health benefits and longer life from wearables. When visitors to the Ericsson hall at the Mobile World Congress (MWC) picked this as the most interesting trend, you could still get away with a joke about some maybe having passed their prime.

But it felt like that joke was on me when, at this year’s MWC, the Internables trend was selected as most interesting among the well over 2,000 who voted on our 10 Hot Consumer Trends for 2016.

People clearly demonstrated widespread interest in internal sensors and in technology to enhance abilities such as vision and hearing.

So maybe consumers are just now passing another speed bump, like the passengers on those first train rides did when they realized that breathing was in fact no issue at all.

Examples of products merging hardware and wetware (your body!) abound. We have long been able to buy a variety of functional foods, but having functional microchip implants to open doors, ride the city’s public transport network or even start your own vehicle is taking functional tech a big step further.

Last year, an Ericsson colleague took the leap himself and had an NFC chip implanted in his hand. At the time he found its utility limited by a lack of understanding and readiness in other systems. I wonder how much different his experience might be if tried again now, less than 12 months later.

Already last year, the US Food and Drug Administration approved the first ingestible smart pill, and while not truly internables, there are now smart band-aids that actively interact with your skin.

Technology is also quickly being repurposed from curing illness to improving wellness. Thus, Zeiss’ smart glasses are for people who already have good eyesight and the Bragi Dash earphones similarly use technology from hearing aids to improve hearing for those who have good ears. Spring Loaded’s bionic knees even enhance strength and performance both for play and work.

Hmm… maybe I could get an internal tachophobia chip to alert me when internables technology moves too fast for me!

8. Internables

An Ericsson colleague took the leap himself and had an NFC chip implanted in his hand

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9. Everything gets hacked

Everything didn’t actually get hacked – yet

When we released our Ericsson ConsumerLab 10 Hot Consumer Trends for 2016 I honestly thought that the trend, called Everything Gets Hacked, stating that a majority of smartphone users believe hacking and viruses will continue to be an issue, would be heavily debated. But although there has been a considerable amount of discussion about some of our trends, it seems that everyone silently accepted this one.

Maybe the statement that half of all smartphone users think hacking and virus problems will become part of everyday life within three years was wrong – in the sense that this is more a description of the current situation than a prediction for the near future. Maybe we are already learning to live with this situation and losing interest in the discussion.

Well, maybe we shouldn’t. Because chances are that it is going to get worse before it gets better.

It is interesting to note that highest on the list of things consumers predict will get hacked are those already exposed to such threats. For example, 69 percent believe that the personal computer – the device where all of this started – will continue to be exposed. Smartphones and then social networks closely follow this on second and third place respectively. People base their answers on previous experiences, so maybe answers like these are obvious.

It also means that organizations best equipped to handle attacks are believed to be the ones primarily facing them in the near term future. For example, Facebook’s core internal mantra is “The Hacker Way” and there are other companies who also try to learn from hackers. Microsoft co-sponsors the Internet Bug Bounty that rewards hackers who contribute to a more secure internet; Cisco contributes to the EC-Council that certifies hackers; and Google has a specific Vulnerability Reward Program. Since 2007, there is also the annual Pwn2Own event where anyone who successfully hacks a phone or web browser takes home a $15,000 cash prize, as well as the device they used to perform the hack.

But what happens when other organizations who are lacking this hard-earned experience increasingly rely on the internet for their services? In our research, 55 percent thought social security registers would get hacked or virus infested again in the near future. And indeed, over 100,000 PIN numbers for tax returns were recently hacked in the USA. Maybe those taxpayers are less complacent – particularly if their refunds are delayed, or even disappear.

There were also things relatively few consumers saw risks for, and they were omitted from our report. For example, only one in five saw any risk of intrusion in kitchen appliances in the near future. This is may be an indication that the idea of smart homes is still not common. But, surprisingly, the smart home may not even need to become mainstream for it to get hacked. In fact, if you have something as mundane as an air conditioner, hackers could already use it to cause your electricity to go out. In our trend research, less than a quarter of the respondents thought heating systems or air conditioners would be liable to attack.

So everything didn’t get hacked. Not just yet.

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Netizen journalists and online complaints – Avoid or engage?

If you were to undergo surgery, would you Google the name of the surgeon first? And if you found a bad review or a complaint from a previous patient, would that be enough for you to have second thoughts? Perhaps you would start looking for other options to switch surgeon or even clinic?

In the 10 hot consumer trends for 2016 we highlight the Netizen Journalist, which builds on a report we released in 2015 called Sharing information. The trend we highlight is for smartphone users to share more information online than

ever before, from observations to opinions. By doing so, they perceive themselves to have increased influence on society.

One way smartphone users see themselves driving change is through criticism; by writing reviews, posting complaints or protesting online. We live in a time where people can easily raise their voices and have an impact on society, from companies, politicians, public services and even individuals. But with new tools come new challenges, and when it comes to criticism, there are two challenges I’d especially like to highlight.

The first is how we, as readers, validate what we encounter online. For instance, when reading a complaint, we should try to understand the author’s bias and perspective. Does this person have enough knowledge about the topic? Is he or she motivated by factors like emotions or money? What is the author trying to achieve? But honestly, how often do you think people ask these questions? Or is, in fact,

10. Netizen journalists

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one complaint enough to make you wonder, just like the example with the surgeon above?

The second challenge is turning some of this criticism into a constructive dialog. In some cases, a complaint or protest is directed towards a broader audience rather than the specific target of the criticism. This makes it hard for the targeted person or organization to respond. Or the complaint is formulated in such a way that it simply does not invite dialog (getting awfully close to net hate here).

I have an example from a friend, a doctor who regularly meets with new patients. He has a great calling for his work and enjoys helping people. Still, he knows that in some cases his patient might not agree with the treatment he is suggesting. That is fine. You can always discuss such things with your doctor. But if my friend discovers that the new patient he is about to meet is heavily active online, he actually prefers to pass that patient on to his colleagues. He fears that if he gets into an argument with that patient, he or she might share the disagreement online.

The way my friend sees it is that it does not matter if the patient is wrong or right, it will only take one complaint to rattle his reputation. And he doesn’t feel it is his place to respond to complaints online. In all, it is just not worth the risk.

Helping people to decide what is true or false is important. We saw in our studies that 46 percent of smartphone users would like a verification service that lets them check the authenticity of an online posting or news clip. This could help my friend and anyone interested in his services to avoid misinformation.

With the internet, our work roles have grown far beyond the places where we work. Although we all could benefit from support in managing the online discussion, most employers only offer codes of conduct or simple guidelines. In my friend’s case, the hospital could be proactively inviting dialog and moderating the discussion with both satisfied and unsatisfied patients. The benefit would be double, as it would also strengthen my friend’s role as an expert.

Sharing opinions and observations is an important part of both democracies and market-driven economies. And today, citizens and consumers can make their voices heard in an unprecedented way. This is fantastic, but far from as powerful as it has the potential to be. Our tools need to evolve from easily letting us share our information to just as easily involving us in a constructive dialog – from sharing criticisms to being part of creating solutions.

Citizens and consumers can make their voices heard in an unprecedented way

Our studies show that 46 percent of smartphone users would like a verification service that lets them check the authenticity of an online posting or news clip

46%

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© Ericsson AB 2016

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