Recent Progresses in
Numerical Weather Prediction
and HPC at KMA
Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration
26th WGNE Meeting
October 18-22, 2010, Tokyo
Major Changes in
Operational NWP System
Regional (Deterministic short-range)
Global (Deterministic medium-range)
Major NWP Changes
• T426L40 (GDAPS)
– GSM from JMA
– 3DVAR
– Operation since 1997
• UM N320L50
– The Unified Model from UKMO
– 4DVAR
– Operation since May 2010
• 30kmL33 (RDAPS)
– MM5 Model
– FDDA
– Operation since 1997
• 10kmL40 (KWRF)
– WRF ARW Model
– Operation since 2007
• UM 12kmL38
– The Unified Model from UKMO
– Initialized from Global UM
– Operation since May 2010
• 10kmL40 (KWRF)
– WRF ARW Model
– L.B.C. from Global UM
- 3 -
- 4 -
UM Implementation Background
KMA decided to import the Unified Model as a next-generation NWP
system (Q4 ’07)
UM Research license (Q4 ’07)
Collaboration Agreement – including Science Plan - between KMA and UK Met Office
(Operational License, Q2 ’08)
Routine operation of global/regional UM started (Q2 ’08)
Initialized from UK Met Office’s initial condition
Global D.A. cycle for UM including ODB implementation (’08~’09)
Migration of UM system to the 3rd supercomputer (Q4 ’09)
Parallel run of UM system on Cray XT5 Interim (March ’10~)
Operational run of UM system on Cray XT5 (14th May ’10~)
- 5 -
Cray XT5 (3rd HPC)
Global Model (UM N320L50)
10-day Forecast
Regional Model (UM 12km)
Parallel Suite : 2010.03 ~ 2010.05
Observation
Pre-Processing
Data
Assimilation
Obs. Pre-proc. System
(OPS)
Atmos. 4DVAR (VAR)
Surf. Analysis (SURF)
COMIS
GTS/FTP
Decoded Obs.
(ODB)
Pre-/Post-Server
(New)
Application/Statistical Models
Post-Processing Regional Model
(KWRF 10km)
Operational Suite : 2010.05 ~
Operational UM System
- 6 -
Regional • Horiz. : ~12km (540x432 / 0.11°x0.11°)
• Vert. : 38 layers (top ~ 39km)
• +72hrs Forecast
• Initialized from Global I.C.
• Version : UM 6.6
Global • Horiz. : N320 (~40km / 0.5625°x0.375°)
• Vert. : 50 layers (top ~ 60km)
• +252hr Forecast
• Initialized by 4DVAR
• Version : UM 6.6
UM Configuration in KMA
MODELS Horiz. Resol.
(Vert. Layers) Forecast Length Target
UM (GLOBAL) 40km (50) 10 days Global Medium-range Fcst.
GDAPS
30km (40) 10 days Global Medium-range Fcst.
55km (40) 10 days Global Medium-range (EPS)
110km (21) 120 days Seasonal Forecasting
UM (REGIONAL) 12km (38) 72 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst.
RDAPS 30/10/5km (33) 66/24/24 hours East-Asia Short-range Fcst.
KWRF 10 km (40) 66 hours East-Asia SRF – UM-based
KLAPS 5km 12 hours Korean Peninsula
Wave Models
(Wave Watch-III)
60km 10 days GWW3(Global) – UM-based
8km 66 hours RWW3(E-Asia) – UM-based
1km 24 hours CWW3(Coastal) – UM-based
Sand Dust Model
(ADAM) 30km 72 hours
Yellow-Dust (East Asia)
– UM-based
Tide and Storm Surge
(RTSM) 8km 72 hours
Regional Tide & Storm Surge
– UM-based
Typhoon Model
(DBAR) 35km 72 hours Track & Intensity
Statistical/Digital Fcst. - 2-10 days UM-based
Main Operational Models (’10.5~)
- 8 -
UM-GLOBAL UM-REGIONAL
Governing Eq. Complete equation (Non-hydrostatic)
Horiz. Resolution N320 (40km 0.5625x0.375) 12km (0.11x0.11)
Vertical Layers L50 (top ~ 63km) L38 (top ~ 39km)
Forecast Length 10.5 days (252 hours) 3 days (72 hours)
Timestep Size 900 sec 240 sec
I.C./ Data Assimilation 4DVAR Downscaling from global initial condition
Spatial Discretization Finite Difference method
Time integ. / Advection Semi-implicit Semi-Lagrangian scheme
Radiation Process Edwards-Slingo general 2-stream scheme
Surface Process MOSES-II land-surface scheme
PBL Process MOSES-II Non-local PBL
Convection Process Mass flux convection with CAPE closure
Microphysics Mixed-phase precipitation
Gravity Wave Drag G.W. drag due to orography (GWDO)
Surface B. C. Surface Analysis + Climatology
Operation Frequency Twice daily (00/12 UTC) /
6hour D.A. cycle
Twice daily (00/12 UTC)
Operational NWP Models – Unified Model
- 9 -
GDAPS (Deterministic) GBEPS (Ensemble)
Base Model GSM (Global Spectral Model from JMA)
Governing Eq. Primitive Equation (Hydrostatic)
Horiz. Resolution T426 (0.28125x0.28125) T213 (0.5625x0.5625)
Vertical Layers L40 (top : 0.4 hPa)
Forecast Length 252 hours 240 hours
I.C./ Data Assimilation 3DVAR Breeding Method + Factor Rotation / 3DVAR
Ensemble Size - 17*2 (12 hour time-lag)
Spatial Discretization Spectral Transformation
Time integration Semi-implicit Scheme
Radiation Process SW : Lacis and Hansen (1974) / LW : JMA (Sugi et al., 1989)
Surface Process SiB (Simple Biosphere, Sellers, 1986)
PBL Process Non-Local PBL (Holtslag and Boville, 1993)
Convection Process Kuo Type (Kuo, 1974)
Microphysics Large-scale condensation (Sundqvist, 1978)
Gravity Wave Drag GWD due to orography (Iwasaki et al., 1989)
GWD due to cumulus convection (Chun and Baik, 1988)
Operation Frequency Twice daily (00/12 UTC)
6hour 3DVAR cycle
Twice daily (00/12 UTC)
6hour 3DVAR cycle
Operational NWP Models – Others / Global / Atmos.
RDAPS KWRF
30km 10km 5km
Base Model MM5 WRF ARW
Dynamic Frame Non-hydrostatic Non-hydrostatic
Horiz. Resolution 30km(171x191) 10km(160x178) 5km(141x141) 10km(574x514)
Vertical Layers 33 Layers / ~50 hPa 40 Layers / ~50 hPa
Forecast Length 66 hours 24 hours 24 hours 66 hours
I.C./Data Assim. FDDA 3hr cycle (IAU) 1-way interact. 3DVAR / DFI
Lateral B.C. Relaxation (12hr) Time & inflow/outflow dependent relaxation (3hr)
Updated every 6 hrs (global UM)
Spatial Discretization Finite Difference Finite Difference
Radiation Process Cloud Radiation RRTM
Surface Process 5-layer Soil Model Noah LSM
PBL Process MRF PBL YSU PBL
Convection Process New Kain-Fritsch None New Kain-Fritsch
Microphysics Mixed phase WSM6
Operational NWP Models – Others / Regional / Atmos.
- 10 -
Data Assimilation System – for Global UM
- 11 -
Observation Data and Global D.A.
• Observation DB : ODB CY32R3
• Observations Used
– Surface (SYNOP/Ship/Buoy), Sonde (TEMP, Pilot, Wind Profiler),
Aircraft, Satwind, AIRS (AQUA), Scatwind, IASI (MetOp), GPSRO
(COSMIC), SSMIS
– ~80,000 observations per cycle (80~85% compared to UK Met Office)
• Analysis Scheme : 4-dimensional Variational Data Assimilation
• Analysis Time : 00, 06, 12, 18 UTC
• Cut-off Time : 2 hours 25 minutes for Early Analysis
6 hours 25 minutes for Update Analysis
• Spatial Resolution (Inner Model) : N108(1.67x1.11deg) L50
• Assimilation Window : -3 hours to +3 hours of Analysis Time
- 12 -
NWP Performance - Global
Forecast error comparison (GDAPS vs. UM)
- 13 -
NWP Performance - Global
+5days
+3days
RMS error for 500 hPa Geopotential Height / N. Hemisphere
Old (GDAPS)
New (UM)
NWP Performance - Global
• Verification Period
– April ~ September 2010
• ~15% enhancement
compared to GDAPS for
500 hPa Geopotential
Height (+120 hours)
Verification against Analysis
• The Regional UM
outperforms KWRF
• Light Precipitation is
significantly over-
estimated in the UM
KWRF(10km)
UM12
UM(12km) – KWRF(10km)
Precipitation Verification (against 76 ASOS obs.) – UM versus KWRF
- 15 -
NWP Performance - Regional (Precipitation)
New Supercomputer and
Upcoming NWP Changes
NEC SX-5/28M2 1999.12 ~ 2005.11
1st Supercomputer
Theoretical performance
0.2 TFlops
×90
2nd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance
18.5 TFlops
CRAY X1E 1024/MSP 2005.12 ~ 2010.11
3rd Supercomputer
Theoretical performance
682.9 TFlops
CRAY XE6 90,240 cores 2010 ~
×37
- 17 -
Current Status (’10.10) - 1st phase of 3rd Supercomputer - Cray XT5 - 2,560 cores / 27.65 TFlops
KMA’s Supercomputer
Cray XT5 MPP System with Lustre Global Parallel File System – Processor : AMD 2.7GHz (4 core)
Initial Phase Technology Peak Perform.
TFlop/s Storage Backup
Interim Cray XT5 14 12 TB
4.5 PB Main Computational
System Cray XT5 28
0.7 PB (Tier0)
1.4 PB (Tier1)
System 2
Interim System
System 1
Main Computational System
KMA’s 3rd Supercomputer – Initial Phase
- 18 -
Cray Next Generation XE6 (Baker) MPP System – Processor : AMD 2.1GHz (12 core)
Initial Phase Technology Peak Perform.
TFlop/s Storage Backup
Interim Cray Baker 16 12 TB
4.5 PB Main Computational
System Cray Baker 683
0.7 PB (Tier0)
1.4 PB (Tier1)
KMA’s 3rd Supercomputer – Final Phase
System 1 - Operational
Main Computational System
System 3 Interim System
System 2 – Research/Backup
Main Computational System
- 19 -
Cray XE6
Cray XE6
• Construction : June 2008 ~ Jan 2010
• Official Opening Ceremony: Feb 2010
• Total Cost: 25.3 billion won(about 23M USD)
• Total Construction Area : 23,092㎡ / KMA HQ: ~16,500㎡
• Building area: 7,052㎡, 3rd floors
Electricity: 250 % greater than HQ
UPS: 475 % greater than HQ
Cooling : 360 % greater than HQ
KMA’s Supercomputer Center
- 21 -
Upcoming NWP Changes
Global NWP System
• Improving the TC Bogussing Scheme for Global NWP
– Current Bogussing Method : Wind Bogussing (Obs. Bogussing)
– New Development : Wind + Sea Level Pressure Bogussing
– Effect : Improvement in intensity (and track) of simulated TCs
– Operational Application : Q4 2010
Intensity error
reduced
Track error
reduced
- 22 -
Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
New Global Ensemble Prediction System
• GDAPS T213L40 (GBEPS)
– Model : GDAPS
– T213 (0.5625x0.5625)
– Bred Vector + Factor Rotation
– No Model Error Simulation
– 16+1 members (x2, 00/12UTC)
– 10 day Forecast
– 6-hourly 3DVAR Cycle
00, 12UTC Forecast
• UM N320L50 (MOGREPS-G)
– Model : The Unified Model
– N320 (0.5625x0.375)
– ETKF
– Stochastic Physics included
– 23+1 members
– 15 day Forecast
– Control I.C. from Deterministic Model
00, 12UTC Forecast
• Currently on its Pre-operational Real-time Test
• Operational Run : Q1 2011
– Platform : Cray XE6 (final phase of KMA’s 3rd supercomputer)
RMSE
SPREAD
Solid : OPER
Dashed : N320L50
Results for
Summer 2010
CPRSS_New
CPRSS_Old
- 23 -
Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
Resolution Change of Global NWP Model
• UM N320L50
– N320 (640x481 / ~40km)
– 50 Vertical Levels (~63km)
– UM Version : vn6.6
– 4DVAR Inner Loop : N108
• UM N512L70
– N512 (1024x769 / ~25km)
– 70 Vertical Levels (~80km)
– UM Version : vn7.5 or later
– 4DVAR Inner Loop : N144
• Operational Run : Q2 2011 on Cray XE6
N320 N512
• Max. Height in South
Korea domain
– N320 orog. : 523m
– N512 orog. : 692m
- 24 -
Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
Regional 4DVAR UM System
• UM 12kmL38
– 12km (0.11x0.11 deg)
– 38 Vertical Levels (~39km)
– UM Version : vn6.6
– Initialized from Global Model
(Cold-Start)
– 00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours)
• UM-4DVAR 12kmL38
– 12km (0.11x0.11 deg)
– 70 Vertical Levels (~80km)
– UM Version : vn7.5 or later
– 6-hourly Atmos. 4DVAR +
Global Surface Analysis Downscaled
– 00, 12UTC Forecast (+72 hours)
• Operational Run : Q2 2011 on Cray XE6
- 25 -
Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer
Local High-Impact Weather Forecasting System
• UM 1.5kmL70
– New NWP System
– Horizontal Resolution : 1.5km Variable Grid
– Vertical Levels : 70 Levels (~39km)
– UM Version : vn7.5 or later
– Data Assimilation : 3-hourly 3DVAR Cycle
Radar Data
• Pre-Operational Parallel Run : Q3 2011
• Operational Run : Q2 2012
12km Domain
1.5km Domain
Two Tracks on the Future NWP at KMA
• Successful UM operation on new supercomputer • Modification and Improvement
• Development of our own NWP System • Own Techniques PBL scheme, Microphysics scheme,
Gravity wave, own dynamics (DFS)
- 26 -
- 27 -
Development of an Original NWP System
Long-Term Development Plan (’11~’19)
• 1st Phase : Initial Development Stage
– Development of Core Modules
: Dynamics Core, Physical Parameterization Schemes, etc.
• 2nd Phase : Growing Stage
– Production of a Prototype Numerical Model
: Combining Developed Modules and Preliminary Test
• 3rd Phase : Mature (Pre-Operational) Stage
– Stabilization, Performance Enhancement
: Preparation for the Operational Implementation
# New organization out of KMA!
# Invitation for the position of the head of new organization soon!
Climate Prediction Division
CPD
LRF
Climate Outlook
International
Cooperation Climate Monitoring
Technical
Development
LRF and Climate Outlook
1-month Forecast
- 3rd, 13th and 23rd of the month
3-month Forecast
- 23rd of the month
Seasonal Climate Outlook
- Feb. for Summer, May for Autumn, Aug. for Winter,
Nov. for Spring
Procedure
Global SST Prediction Model
Global Dynamic Model
Statistical Analysis Model
APCC MME(15 model, 8 contries)
WMO LC-LRFMME(12 GPCs)
Discussion (CPD)
LRF ET Meeting (season) Int’l Joint Meeting (summer, winter)
Discussion
Press Release
Briefing
Disaster Prevention
System KMA Homepage Mass Media, …
「World Best 365」 하늘을 친구처럼, 국민을 하늘처럼
WMO LC-LRFMME
http://www.wmolc.org
No. of Members
: 106 members
from 45 countries
「World Best 365」 하늘을 친구처럼, 국민을 하늘처럼
Future Plan
UM based Atmospheric Model - Operational Forecast System is going to be replaced with
the UM based atmospheric model(N144L38) by 2011
GloSea4 - According to the agreement between UKMO and KMA
on the joint seasonal forecast system(’10.6.22),
KMA is currently working to move its seasonal forecast system
to the GloSea4(HadGEM3N96L85/ORCA1L75)
< Major Plan > - Jan 2011: Migration of KMA-GloSea4 from Cray-XT5 to Cray-XE6
- 2011: Testing of KMA-GloSea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO
- 2012: Semi-operational run of KMA-Glosea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO
- 2013: Operational run of KMA-GloSea4
Thank You for Your Attention
See you again in Korea or other countries!!
Top Related