Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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““ the Mideast had oil, but China had the Mideast had oil, but China had rare earth elementsrare earth elements””
Deng XiaopingDeng Xiaoping
Rare Rare EarthsEarths (REE)(REE)
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Rare Rare EarthsEarths ElementsElements (REE), (REE), a a «« not not soso »» homogeneoushomogeneous familyfamily of 17 of 17 elementselements
Light REE• La = Lanthanum• Ce = Cerium• Pr = Praseodymium• Nd = Neodymium• Sm = Samarium
Heavy REE• Eu = Europium• Gd = Gadolinium• Tb = Terbium• Dy = Dysprosium• Ho = Holmium• Er = Erbium• Tm = Thulium• Yb = Ytterbium• Lu = Lutetium• Y = Yttrium
HeavyHeavy Rare Rare EarthEarth ElementsElements
A frequent confusion between “rare metals” and “rare earth”
For both REE depositsAnd applications
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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REE global productionREE global production
““ Chinese era Chinese era ””China produces 97% of global supply of the rare
earths metals
Surproduction et baisse des prix dans les années 90 et 2000 = Réduction de capacité et fermeture des exploitations occidentales = depuis 2004, jusqu’à
aujourd’hui, la chine contrôle 97% de la production de Terres Rares
Source: USGS
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Rare MetalsA A strongstrong UE importation UE importation dependancydependancy & &
SomeSome countries countries withwith a a monopolisticmonopolistic productionproduction
ChinaREE : 97%
UEUE
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Prix moyen de 10 terres rares7 mai 2010
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Cérium
Lanthane
Gadolinium
Samarium
Yttrium
Praseodyme
Néodyme
Dysprosium
Terbium
Europium
en US$/kg
From 10 000 to 800 000 $/t
REE pricing is in rmb, $/kg, $/t, for metal, for oxyde, or for mischmetal, mainly FOB China
Prices are very high for some HREE elements.
Neodymium, Dysprosium, Terbium and Europium with
highest demand
For this reason, the REE mix (light REE versus heavy
REE) has a great impact in mining revenues
HREE
(Neodymium is in tandem with praseodymium because a substitution is possible)
Rare Rare EarthsEarths pricesprices
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Yttrium, light REE & Gadoliniumin US$/kg, metal 99%, FOB China.
(source : www.metal-price.com)
0
10
20
30
40
50
6001
/01/
01
01/0
7/01
01/0
1/02
01/0
7/02
01/0
1/03
01/0
7/03
01/0
1/04
01/0
7/04
01/0
1/05
01/0
7/05
01/0
1/06
01/0
7/06
01/0
1/07
01/0
7/07
01/0
1/08
01/0
7/08
01/0
1/09
01/0
7/09
01/0
1/10
01/0
7/10
YLaCePrNdSmGd
Trends in REO prices (2001Trends in REO prices (2001--2010)2010)
NeodymiumNeodymiumPraseodimiumPraseodimium
LREE
More IP related
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Europium, Dysprosium & Terbium pricesin US$/kg, metal 99%, FOB China.
(source : www.metal-price.com)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 10001
/01/
01
01/0
7/01
01/0
1/02
01/0
7/02
01/0
1/03
01/0
7/03
01/0
1/04
01/0
7/04
01/0
1/05
01/0
7/05
01/0
1/06
01/0
7/06
01/0
1/07
01/0
7/07
01/0
1/08
01/0
7/08
01/0
1/09
01/0
7/09
01/0
1/10
01/0
7/10
EuDyTb
May 2003 :
May 2010 : $
Trends in HREE (Trends in HREE (EuEu, , DyDy, Tb) prices , Tb) prices (2001(2001--2010)2010)
Dy: X 10
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Since 2010, REO prices are upSince 2010, REO prices are upThe REE demand rebound with the economic recovery
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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REE : a number of short term interrogations
– Demand• Chinese demand growth?• How much the new energy and cleantech applications (particularly
electric-hybrid cars and wind turbine) will add for specific REE demand?
– Supply• Chinese quotas reduction ?• Stockpiling price impact? • ETC speculation impact on supply rarefaction?• When to expect new REE productions outside China ?
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
10China can supply REE products as pure as 6N (99.9999%)
REE REE –– keykey points & points & risksrisks• China
– 1° producer: China supply more than 90% of rare earths. – 1° consumer: Last year, China consumed 60% of all processed rare earths. – 1° exportateur: China supply the ROW market with 50.000 to 60.000 t a year. – The « supply chain » is complex with five steps : mining, concentration, separation,
purification, and compounds elaboration (> 400 REE compounds & 1000 specifications) with huge environmental concerns during processing (ass. with radioactivity).
• Global consumption– 2008 : 124 000 tonnes TREO (a tiny market of about $1.25 billion) and China is thought to
consume about 60%. But only 85 000 t in 2009…– by 2015, global demand is forecast to ~210 000 t, a 60% growth from 2008 levels, and 138
000 tons for China – Over the last 10 years, global demand for rare earths to have grown by between 8 to 12% per
annum. • Supply-Demand concerns
– In the last 10 years, from a 40,000 t per year worldwide market for rare earth oxide equivalent to a 125,000 t per year market, and demand is predicted to be about 200,000 t by 2014.
– Numerous supply constrains : China reduced export quotas and Chinese consumption is rapidly growing; Speculation with REE “ETC”; Constitution of strategic stocks; Mining investments capacity and REE deposits (orebody) resource mix (light REE/heavy REE)
– New demands : particularly for permanent magnet in electric motors for transportation (electric/hybrid cars, trains) and green energy, RGB phosphors for flat display and LED, catalyst, etc.
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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SupplySupplySupply
Source: Lynas
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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World Resources & ReservesWorld Resources & ReservesWorld Resources & Reserves
100 to 150 Mt of REO world resources
(~ 40 % in China)"World resources are sufficient to meet forecast world consumption
well into the 21st Century.“
But, if mineral resource will never been a problem for the 21st Century,
but lacks of metal availability, yes
Source: ‘Rare Earths’, USGS, Mineral Commodity Summary
Source: Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives”, March 2010 www.oakdenehollins.co.uk
ChinaChina
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
13Source: Maps from “Courrier International”
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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REE mining in ChinaREE mining in ChinaREE mining in China
“ a monopolistic avantage helped
by gov-driven policy “
China China 97%97%
Source: Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives”, March 2010 www.oakdenehollins.co.uk
China account for 97% of global primary REE supply
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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BEIJING
BaoTou
BayanOboBayanOboInner Mongolia
MianingSichuan
Ionic claysLongNan, XunWU, XinFeng Mines
JiangXi
China rare earths production China rare earths production
Rare Earth breakdown of bastnäsite ore, Inner Mongolia (upper), and lateritic ore, Jiangxi (lower)
Source: Rhodia, ‘2007 Rare Earth Yearbook & Rare Earth Factsheet’, USGS, “ Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives”, March 2010 www.oakdenehollins.co.uk
North China LREE
South China HREE
HREE
Baotou “Rare Earth Valley”
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Chinese REE industry :Chinese REE industry :Rationalization and ConcentrationRationalization and Concentration
•• RationalizationRationalization– The new rare earths policy will involve shutting down 80 rare earths
facilities to improve efficiencies • Too much producers with too low profitability, • Some 20 % of the production is illegal,• There are not in capacity to negotiate long term contract, • Environmental problems (treatment process is dirty, radioactivity)• (shutting production is a contributor factor to the tightening of export quotas).
•• ConcentrationConcentration– To the North: CIC
• China Investment Corp (CIC) $300 billion sovereign fund is talking with Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-Tech (Baotou Steel subsidiary) to setting up a rare earth domestic company. CIC has also bought a 14.5 % stake in Noble Group trading firm
– To the South: Minmetals• Minmetals (with 51% of Hunan Nonferrous Metals Corp.), first Chinese trader become
recently the Chinese n°1 producer of W, Zn, Bi, Sb, Sn, Pb, but also an important REE but also an important REE producerproducer (with the goal to become the world n°1…)
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Takeover on two most advanced Australian REE mining projects
• State-owned “East China Exploration & Development Bureau” acquires 25% interest in Arafura Resources (Nolan’s Bore project ).
• State-owned “China Non-Ferrous Mining Ltd” (CNMC) was blocked from acquiring 51,6% controlling stake in Lynas Corporation (Mt Weld project) by the Australia's Foreign Investment Review Board - FIRB on 20 sept 2009. (a later opportunity for Rhodia Silcea)
• Additionally, earlier, China tried – unsuccessfully - to buy the U.S. Mountain Pass mine on two occasions. Cnooc, a government-controlled Chinese oil company, tried to buy the mine in 2005 as part of Unocal, which owned Molycorp then. But Congress effectively blocked the Unocal transaction.
StateState--owned Chinese companiesowned Chinese companies are trying to are trying to acquire REE resources outside Chinaacquire REE resources outside China
State-owned Chinese companies are attempting to take dominant positions in potential new producers
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Mining projects outside ChinaMining projects Mining projects outside Chinaoutside China
Paradox : Increasing prices, export limits, rising demand within China, and a ban on new mining permits were expected to make rare-earth
deposits outside of China more economic.
““ Will new sources be online in time? Will new sources be online in time? ””““ We need to get projects accelerated We need to get projects accelerated ””
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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AustraliaLynas Corporation
(Mt Weld)
RussiaKola Loparite
USAMolycorp
(Mountain Pass)
IndiaMonazite
Kazakhstan(KundybaiChurchite)
Sth AfricaRareco
BrazilNeo Material
(Pitinga)
Canada- Avalon Rare Metals
(Nechalacho)- Great Western Minerals Group
(Hoidas Lake)
Australia- Arafura Resources
(Nolans Bore)- Akane Resources (Dubbo
Zirconia)
ChinaChina
Vietnam(Dong Pao)
Greenland(Kvanefjeld)
USA- Rare Element
Res. (Bear Lodge)- Ucore Uranium (Bokan Mountain)
From Rhodia Silcea, CH modified
EstoniaSolikamsk, Silmet
Development projectsAdvanced explo. projects Mining
Africa : deposits in Kenya, Uganda, Malawi, Tanzania
Boom in REE mining projects outside Chinaoutside China
Location of Rare Earth reserves and known production
Brazil Monazite
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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1. * Arafura Resources Ltd (Nolans)2. Avalon Rare Metals Inc (Nechalacho)3. Great Western Minerals Group (Hoidas Lake)4. Greenland Minerals & Energy Ltd
(Kvanefjeld)5. * Lynas Corporation Ltd (Mt Weld)6. * Molycorp Minerals LLC (Mountain Pass)7. Neo Material Technologies Inc (Pitinga)
(Brazil)8. Rare Element Resources Ltd (Bear lodge)
(USA)9. Silmet (Estonia), with 25% Treibacher
Industrie AG10. Eramet in Gabon (Mabounié)
The 10 main advanced The 10 main advanced REE mining projects REE mining projects
outside Chinaoutside China * Most advanced projects
• Molycorp (US) mine and separations plant expect to comes into full production in late 2011, if Molycorp obtain its final mining permit (Mountain Pass is in California)
• Arafura Resources Ltd (Australia) mine and separations plant will comes into full production in late 2013
• Lynas Mt Weld mine (in Australia), with a Rhodia off take financing
Will new sources be Will new sources be online in time?online in time?
“ For the new projects, location and REE mix are critical issues ”
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Molycorp Minerals REE Mountain Pass mine project, California
• Molycorp Minerals expect raising as much as $350 million through the sale of a minority stake in an initial public offering (IPO) and borrowing the rest, using government-backed loans to raise $500 million to reopen the mine and refine neodymium for rare-earth magnets, but also resume bulk production of lower-value rare-earth elements like cerium.
• The Mountain Pass mine was discovered in 1949 by uranium prospectors who noticed local radioactivity. This mine dominated rare-earth element production through the 1980s *, but shut down in 2002.
• Environmental constrains** and very low prices for rare-earth elements from China contributed to cutbacks at the Mountain Pass mine before it closed in 2002. Until now, everything at the mine site, including the processing equipment and the buildings’ door frames, was rusty.
•– * Europium from the mine made the world's color CRT televisions possible.– ** After a mine pipeline leaked faintly radioactive water in a nearby desert, state
regulators delayed renewal of its operating permit.
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Light REE dominant versusHeavy REE dominant deposits
Light REE dominant Light REE dominant versusversusHeavyHeavy REE dominant REE dominant depositsdeposits
• Light REE• La = Lanthanum• Ce = Cerium• Pr = Praseodymium• Nd = Neodymium• Sm = Samarium
• Heavy REE• Eu = Europium• Gd = Gadolinium• Tb = Terbium• Dy = Dysprosium• Ho = Holmium• Er = Erbium• Tm = Thulium• Yb = Ytterbium• Lu = Lutetium• Y = Yttrium
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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2008 2008 pricesprices fromfrommetalmetal--pages.compages.com
REE REE depositsdeposits: : tonnage, ore grades, tonnage, ore grades,
and HREE%and HREE%
REE REE depositsdeposits: : Light REE % Light REE % versusversusHeavyHeavy REE %, and REE %, and relatedrelated miningmining valuevalue
ComparisonComparison of Rare of Rare EarthEarth DepositsDeposits : LREE vs HREE: LREE vs HREE
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Project: Mountain Pass Hoidas Lake Thor Lake Bear Lake Mt Weld Dubbo Zirconia Nolans Kvanefjeld
Factor USA RFC, Goldman Sachs & Traxys
Canada
Great Western Minerals Group
Canada
Avalon Ventures
USA
Rare Elements Resources
Australia/ Malaysia
Lynas
Australia
Akane Resources
Australia
Arafura Resources
Greenland
Greenland Minerals &
Status
Re6commissioned separation plant.
Feasibility study on recommencing mining and processing underway
Advanced exploration. Some preliminary testwork completed. Could be supplemented by RareCo Project in South Africa
Prefeasibility study underway. Some preliminary testwork completed
Resource engineering study commenced.
Start-up in late 2009. Project approvals in place. Construction well advanced
3rd generation pilot plant in ‘production’ for customer samples
Prefeasibility study complete. Pilot plant work started.
Approvals process started.
Advanced exploration. Some preliminary testwork
Resource
50Mt @8-9% REO
4.3Mt REO
1.4Mt @2.6% REO
0.04Mt REO
86Mt @1.6%REO 1.3Mt REO
Not available
7.7Mt @ 12.0% REO 0.92Mt REO
73.2Mt @ 0.9% REO 0.65Mt REO
30.3Mt @ 2.8% REO 0.85Mt REO
334Mt @ 1.2% REO 2.6Mt REO
Potential production
Potential 4,000 tpa-12,000tpa REO in 2012.; actual output not disclosed.
3-5,000 tpa REO Start up post 2012
35,000 tpa REO Startup post 2012
Unknown
10,500tpa REO in 2010/11. Several sales contracts in place. Increase to 21,000 tpa REO later in next decade
1,200-1,400tpa REO in 2012/13 REO (rich in Y) will be by-products to zircon chemical and niobium production
Target 10,000 tpa REO in 2011. Increase to 20,000 tpa REO Phosphate, calcium chloride & uranium co-products
TBA. Potential for RE carbonate output to exceed 20,000 tpa REO as a co-product to uranium in 2013/14
Critical Issues
Mt Weld New owners, Complete DFS, Re starting an ‘old’ plant.
Define ore reserve, Develop process, Complete DFS Approvals, Customer Support
Define ore reserve, Develop process, Complete DFS Approvals, Customer Support
Proven ore reserve, Develop process, Complete DFS Approvals, Customer Support
Project suspended pending resolution of funding issues, Separation of mining and processing
Complete DFS Approvals (started), Customer Support
Define ore reserve, Develop process, Complete DFS Approvals (started), Customer Support
Define ore reserve, Develop process, Complete DFS Approvals, Customer Support
Main Main advancedadvanced REE REE miningmining projectsprojects ousideouside ChinaChina
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Resources under development outside ChinaResources under development outside China
Source: Lynas
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Rare Earth Oxide supply estimates 2012-2014
Source: GWMG presentation
Rare Earth Oxide supply by mine for 2014Source: IMCOA
“many projects, but few mines ”
few mines will open outside China, which would remain the dominant supplier
Low prices discouraged most entrants to the industry. 'The price of the rare-earths been way too low for way too long. But recently, as neodymium prices quintupled to $23 a pound, some 10 companies would like to open new
rare-earth mines, but faces still challenges in matching China's low costs, a result of low wages.
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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•• There is now ~ 10 advanced projects outside There is now ~ 10 advanced projects outside China,China, but some unresolved problems and but some unresolved problems and questions as:questions as:
– Only juniors exploration companies are involved in REE exploration and mining development (the major Eramet as an exception)
– timing: few new projects have the capability to produce before 2015 (only Molycorp, Lynas and Arafura at the moment)
– REE ore mix: projects with a mix HREE >> LREE
– Projet financing: difficulties due to the crisis, and a fundamental shift in mining financing with a dwindling reliance on debt(too much borrowing undertaken in 2007 and 2008) would be increasingly replaced by equity as the primary source of growth funding
The urgency for more mining projects The urgency for more mining projects outside Chinaoutside China
Market cap of REE junior explo China's actions have ignited frenzied investor interest. Shares value in rare-earth mining companies. The Kaiser Bottom-Fish Online index of share prices of rare-earth companies soared eightfold last year and has kept most of its gains. That has encouraged worries about a possible bubble
““ We need to get projects accelerated We need to get projects accelerated ””
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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But mining (producing concentrate) is not enoughBut mining (producing concentrate) is not enough……… miners need to process their concentrates (as Lynas project to do) or to find customers(trader, compounder, manufacturer) compounder, manufacturer) to buy for their REE “michmetal” concentrates through long terms “take or pay” contracts.
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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REE processingREE processingREE processing
“ an absolute nightmare to refine an absolute nightmare to refine ””
(separation, purification, compounds elaboration)(separation, purification, compounds elaboration)
The REE The REE paradoxparadox ::«« dirtydirty oresores »» for for «« clean clean techtech »»
REE are not so “green metals” despite many environmental friendly greentech applications
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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- Dirty processing- The primary ores (with monazite, bastnaesite, xenotime and loparite), enriched by various physical processes
(gravimetry, flotation, magnetic separation), are pulverized more or less finely into 50 mm to 1 mm grains, then chemically attacked by acid or soda reagents. The mine product is a mixed-metal (“mischmetal”), an amalgam of the 17 rare earth elements
- Separation and purification of mischmetal into its component elements requires some environmentally naughty and energy intensive processing. They are now done by solvent-extraction (Ytterbium takes 1000 stages of separation before the metal can be produced).
- Associated U and Th radioactivity (particularly for heavy REE deposits as monazite-xenotime beach sands and U deposits )
Processing : huge environmental concerns
Monazite (Ce, La, Pr, Nd) PO4 + ThO2 and U (0,25-19,6 %)
Molycorp hopes to improve environmental at the Mountain Pass mine :- recycling more of the costly acid used in ore processing; - use a separate recycling system to reduce the need for fresh water to 114 liters, a minute from 850; and - install a natural gas power plant to reduce its need to buy costlier, less reliable electricity from distant cities.
Dans le sud de la Chine, prés de 200 petites mines pour terres rares lourdes (Dy, Tb..), situées dans le nord du Guangdong et dans le Jiangxi, sont artisanales et à 50 % illégales. A Guyun, un petit village du sud-est de la Chine, les mineurs extraient à la pelle la latérite minéralisée, qui est mise dans des fosses et dans lesquelles ils déversent l’acide qui s’infiltre ensuite dans le sol. Cette production est ensuite exportée par contrebande (pour passer outre les quotas d’exportation : les terres rares sont mélangées à d’autres produit comme en « composites ».New York Tines, Keith Bradsher, dec.26, 2009
Southern Clay
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Chinese export quotasChineseChinese exportexport quotasquotas
“ China will reduce output and exports of rare earth over the next five years: a
threat to global supplies “
““AA coherentcoherent Chinese REE strategy : all Chinese REE strategy : all measures are going with the same goal measures are going with the same goal ””
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Chinese REE export restrictions
65 6092005
-12 %50 1452009
- 5,5%56 9392008
- 4%59 6432007
- 6%61 8212006
% change yoyExport quotas(tonnes REO)
Year
A rapid diminution of export quotasA rapid diminution of export quotas
China cutting its supply quotas year on year China REE export quota
30 000
35 000
40 000
45 000
50 000
55 000
60 000
65 000
70 000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009to
nnes
2010 target
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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Xuzhou Jinshi Pengyuan Rare Earth Material Co Ltd
22
Ganzhou Chenguang Rare Earths New Material Co Ltd
21
Jiangsu Geoquin Nano Rare Earth Co Ltd20
China National Nonferrous Metals Import & Export Corporation Guangdong Branch
19
Shandong Pengyu Industrial Co Ltd18
Guangdong Zhujiang Rare Earth Co Ltd17
Leshan Shenghe Rare Earth Technology Co Ltd
16
Inner Mongolia Hefa Rare Earth Science & Technology Development Co Ltd15
Baotou Huamei Rare-earth Hi-tech Co Ltd14
Yiyang Hongyuan Rare Earth Company Limited
13
Grirem Advanced Materials Co Ltd12
Ganzhou Qiandong Rare Earth Group Co Ltd11
Changshu Shengchang Rare Earth Refinery10
Jiangxi Golden Century Advanced Materials Co Ltd
9
Ganxian Hongjin Rare Earth Co Ltd8
Funing Rare Earth Industry Company Ltd7
Gansu Rare Earth New Materials Co Ltd6
Jiangxi South Rare Earth Hi-tech Co Ltd5
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Rare-Earth Hi-tech Co Ltd
4
China National Nonferrous Metals Import & Export Corporation Jiangsu Branch
3
China Minmetals Non-ferrous Metals Co Ltd2
Sinosteel Corporation1
Authorized Chinese REE Authorized Chinese REE exporters 2010exporters 2010
(China's Ministry of Commerce)
China REE export quota for foreign China REE export quota for foreign companiescompanies (H1 2010)(H1 2010)
(China's Ministry of Commerce)
Duties & Taxes - export 2009
10.00%26169000Other rare metal ores and concentrates
15.00%25309020Rare earth metal ores
25.00%28469090Other compounds yttrium and scandium
25.00%28469011Yttrium oxide
25.00%28053013Terbium
15.00%28053011Neodymium
15.00%28469012Lanthanum oxide
25.00%28469014Europium oxide
25.00%28053012Dysprosium
15.00%28461010Cerium oxide
10.00%26169000Other rare metal ores and concentrates
15.00%25309020Rare earth metal ores
25.00%28469090Other compounds yttrium and scandium
25.00%28469011Yttrium oxide
25.00%28053013Terbium
15.00%28053011Neodymium
15.00%28469012Lanthanum oxide
25.00%28469014Europium oxide
25.00%28053012Dysprosium
15.00%28461010Cerium oxide
1,448Zibo Jiahua Advanced Material Resources Co., Ltd10
236Baotou Santoku Battery Materials Co., Ltd9
186Baotou Huaxin Smelting Co., Ltd8
404Huhehaote Rongxin New Metal Smelting Co., Ltd7
1,316Baotou Rhodia Rare Earth Co., Ltd6
307Baotou Tianjiao Qingmei Rare Earth Polishing Powder5
130Pingyuan Sanxie Rare Earth Smelting Co., Ltd4
685Yixing Xinwei Leeshing Rare Earth Co., Ltd3
474Liyang Rhodia Rare Earth Advanced Material Co., Ltd2
792Jiangyin Jiahua Advanced Material Resources Co., Ltd1
Export Quota
(tonnes)
Company
1,448Zibo Jiahua Advanced Material Resources Co., Ltd10
236Baotou Santoku Battery Materials Co., Ltd9
186Baotou Huaxin Smelting Co., Ltd8
404Huhehaote Rongxin New Metal Smelting Co., Ltd7
1,316Baotou Rhodia Rare Earth Co., Ltd6
307Baotou Tianjiao Qingmei Rare Earth Polishing Powder5
130Pingyuan Sanxie Rare Earth Smelting Co., Ltd4
685Yixing Xinwei Leeshing Rare Earth Co., Ltd3
474Liyang Rhodia Rare Earth Advanced Material Co., Ltd2
792Jiangyin Jiahua Advanced Material Resources Co., Ltd1
Export Quota
(tonnes)
Company
Christian Hocquard Ifri Energy Breakfast Rountable, May 20 th, 2010, Brussels
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• Limiting exploitation to protect the Resources for the future (no new mining licence, diminution of the number of producers, and concentration with only two national champions). The number of rare earth smelting and separation producers in China will be reduced to 20 from 100 (> 8000 tpy of capacity to qualify).
• For exports, REE products will be classified into 3 groups: "encouraged," "allowable" and "prohibitory". The allowable products will be subject to a 20% export tariff.
• The annual export quota will be below 35,000 tpy and exports of dysprosium, terbium, thulium, lutetium and yttrium will be prohibited*.
• Foreign investments in exploration and mining of rare earth ores and concentrates will be prohibited. They will be allowed to invest in separation production only by setting up minoritary JV with domestic firms.
• The Chinese government “will also let” foreign companies invest in manufacturing value-added materials
31 Aug 2009: China proposal to ban exports of 31 Aug 2009: China proposal to ban exports of unprocessedunprocessed critical critical HREE HREE by 2015*by 2015*
* China raised concerns by reducing its export quotas for raw rare-earth elements from 2005 through 2009. A year ago, the Chinese government caused further alarm for Western corporations and governments by proposing a ban on the export of 5 of the 17 rare-earth elements. “Rare Earths Industry Development Plan in 2009-2015” drafted by the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
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Chinese goals ?
‘Rare Earth Industry Development Plan' to reduce the amount of material exported to supply the needs of the ROW rest of the world.
The final objective is to bring more and more manufacturing into China. China guaranteeing that people who relocate manufacturing facilities
to China will be given priority on rare earth supplies
Such as other commodities, the REE market is not only physical (industrial metals with classical global supply-demand balance
pricing), but becomes more and more affected by new fundamentalsas Chinese (BRIC) demand-RoW, speculative funds, and also
geopolitical constrains
«« REE: une dimension politiqueREE: une dimension politique »» ::« exports of rare metals and minerals should be strictly administrated »
Ministère du commerce chinois
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DemandDemandDemand
2010 Demand Forecast by Region
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ApplicationsApplicationsApplications““The greentech trend:The greentech trend:““ from LREE to HREE from LREE to HREE ““
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From classical chemical speciality products
(mainly LREE)
Towards high-value products: magnets and
phosphors (mainly HREE)
Minor Metals & Rare Earths’, Arafura Presentation
A great number of specific applications for each REE
2010 Demand Forecast by Application
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Applications use different Rare Earths, the supply Applications use different Rare Earths, the supply distribution does not match demand distributiondistribution does not match demand distribution
Source: Lynas
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2008 global REE consumption2008 global REE consumption
The demand vary according to regional specificity use
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REE for clean energy technologiesREE for clean energy technologiesFirst use First use && End useEnd use
–– PhosphorsPhosphors•• LowLow consumptionconsumption lampslamps ((Fluorescent lighting and LED)Fluorescent lighting and LED)•• Flat Flat screenscreen display (Plasma and LCD) display (Plasma and LCD)
–– NdFeBNdFeB permanent magnets (for permanent magnets (for electric motors and generators) electric motors and generators) •• Wind turbinesWind turbines•• Vehicles (Hybrid, Electric, PlugVehicles (Hybrid, Electric, Plug--in)in)
–– Catalyst in automotive sector, for Catalyst in automotive sector, for diesel particles eliminationdiesel particles elimination
–– NiNi--(La)(La)--MH Battery MH Battery for hybrid for hybrid vehiculesvehicules
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PhosphorsPhosphors (Eu, Tb, Y)(Eu, Tb, Y)
• Fluo and LED low consumption lamps, • Plasma and LCD, • Medical radiography
Ore
Extraction Séparation des
TR
Matières premières
Y, Eu, Tb, La, Ce
Luminophores
LAP, YOx, BAM
Lampes basse consommation
Ecrans Plasma ou LCD
«« fromfrom ore to luminophoresore to luminophores »»
High purity products (6N) and complex chemical compounds (Rhodia Silcea)
Complex REE materialsComplex REE materialsFew refiner/compounderFew refiner/compounder can purify can purify
REE elements to 6N ( 99,9999%) REE elements to 6N ( 99,9999%) and elaborate compound and elaborate compound
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REE REE demanddemand for for phosphorsphosphors
Ecrans à tubes
cathodiques179545%
Ecrans plasma1985%
Ecrans LCD1684%
Lampes fluo compactes
184646%
Répartition de la demande en oxyde de terres rares en 2005 (tonnes)
Ecrans à tubes
cathodiques169523%
Ecrans plasma96013%
Ecrans LCD107414%
Lampes fluo compactes
377950%
Répartition de la demande en oxyde de terres rares en 2010 (tonnes)
2005~ 4000 t
2010~ 8000 t
X 2
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Electrode
Phosphor
Hg ou Xe ΔV
Glass
UV (Neon Hg) or VUV (Plasma lamps) excitation of RBG phosphors(Red, Blue and Green)
White light emission
White LEDs also use similar phosphors
Source: Rhodia, Lynas AAGR is the Annual Average Growth Rate
3,77915.0%1,8461,600Total REO Consumption CFLs
2010AAGR%2005-1020052004Tonnes per annum
Demand of Rare Earths in CFLs:
Compact Fluorescent Lights Energy savings (70% more efficient in their
use of electricity)
Legislation driving Legislation driving demanddemand
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NdFeBNdFeB Permanent Permanent magnetsmagnets Minerai
Extraction Séparation des TR
Matières premières
Nd, Dy,Tb
Métaux Nd° Dy° Tb°
Alliages Nd(Dy,Tb)FeB
Aimants Nd(Dy,Tb)2Fe14B
Application finale
Sintered Nd powder
• NdFeB permanent magnet (Nd2Fe14B) have ~ 30 %~ 30 %Neodymium (or Nd-Pr). They contain also 3% of dysprosium and terbium (substitution possible with Ga)
• Today > 10 500 tpy REO are used for Nd-Fe-B magnets,
Source: Rhodia , Shin-Etsu presentation
Applications of neodymium magnets
* HDD:hard disk drive
*
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NdNd--FeFe--B permanent B permanent magnetmagnet: : a a rapidrapid and and strongstrong growthgrowth
Source: Rhodia
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ElectricalElectrical and and electronicelectronic components: components: REE REE magnetsmagnets have have allowedallowed miniaturizationminiaturization
First use : Small, lightweight, high-strength REE magnets
have allowed miniaturization of numerous electrical and electronic components
End use : appliances, audio and video, computers,
communications systems, automobiles, and military gear.
The high cost limited their use to applications where a compact magnet are critical. China has now become the world’s manufacturing base for computer hard drives, audio speakers, etc.
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Wind turbinesWind turbinesPermanent MagnetPermanent Magnet--BasedBased GearlessGearless Wind TurbineWind Turbine
-« North See project »: 9 wind farms with 6400 offshore wind turbine before 2020- Important offshore windfarms projects in France too.
Nd ( Pr, Dy, Tb)The new 3.6 MW direct drive permanent magnet
generator wind turbine from Siemens
• Why NdFeB permanent magnet ? This Siemens turbine uses a permanent magnet generator to produce electricity and has no gearbox. A gearless turbine means only 50% of the parts, a lighter nacelle (weighs only 73 t), a more reliable turbine, and need less maintenance at the top of the tower.
• For smaller inland windturbine, the substitution is possible with ferritic or Sm-Co permanent magnets. But, with REE, the energy product of sintered NdFeB is roughly 10 times that of sintered ferrite, but the cost per kilogram of sintered NdFeB is 30 times that of ferrite. Perhaps
3.5 MW of power uses over 2,000 kg of neodymium-based [Nd-Fe-B] permanent magnet material (30% of that, or 600 kg is Neodymium). This equates to approximately 0.6 kg/kW produced (or 0,18 kg of Neodymium /kW).
18% annual growth forecast to 2020 to 700GW18% annual growth forecast to 2020 to 700GW
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Aimant permanent NdFeB pour generateur synchrone
Turbines avec puissance > 2 MW avec turbine à vitesse variable pour éolienne offshore, où une faible maintenance est essentielle
Speed-controlled systems withpermanent magnet generators : the speed of the rotor always matches
supply frequency
Generator technology moving to permanent Generator technology moving to permanent magnets (PM) for larger turbines and offshoremagnets (PM) for larger turbines and offshore
Lighter, smaller, lower maintenance
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Neodymium oxide requirements from wind turbines
Source: Rhodia, ‘2007 Rare Earth Yearbook & Rare Earth Factsheet’, USGS, “ Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives”, March 2010 www.oakdenehollins.co.uk
Potential competition with motors for electric vehicles
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Multiple components and subsystems that use rare earths include:• NiMH batteries: lanthanum• Electric motors and regenerative braking: neodymium, praseodymium,
dysprosium, terbium; • Exhaust catalysts: cerium and lanthanum; • Glass : cerium
Automotive sector
Numerous REE inside
“ REE : a huge concern for the auto manufacturing sector “
* Dysprosium is key to making “heatresistant” magnets vital to automotive
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hybrid & electric Vehicles“ Electric Cars, a challenge to Nd Supply “
• Today, for a Toyota Prius, 1 kg of Nd are needed in every car. • in 2030, if 1/3 of the probable 72 Mpy new vehicles are either
fully electric or hybrid vehicles (25 M e-cars), the world would need an additional 25 000 t of Nd (33 to 65 000 t according to IMCOA scenarios).
- Toyota hybride Prius: 1 kg Nd- Mercedes S400 hybrid : 0,5 kg Nd
Neodymium oxide requirements from cars
Electric motor with REE magnets is half the weight of traditional ferrite electric motor(For Electric seats, windows and mirrors, Sunroof and tail gate, Windscreen wipers and washer jets, Starter motor and alternator, ABS braking, etc.)
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OtherOther transportation transportation
AGV AGV automotrice à grande vitesse (AlstomAlstom))
• moteurs électriques synchrones avec un rotor àaimants permanents avec des bogies motorisées au lieu des motrices pour ses AGV . TGV Est: 574,8km/h le 3 avril 2007
• Alstom contrat for 5000 moteurs sur dix ans (1000 rames).
Chinese e-bicycle• Electric motor with 380 g Nd x 2 millions/py =
780 tpy Nd
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- 10 to15 kg of lanthanum* content in the Ni-MH battery of the Toyota hybride Prius
- But a substitution with Li-ion batteries for the next 2012 Priusgeneration was recently announced by Toyota
NiNi--(La)(La)--MH MH BatteriesBatteries
Source: Roskill presentation, “Electric Cars: Plugged in”, Deutsche Bank
Forecast for NiMH vs. Li-ionBreakdown of NiMH batteries by end use, 2007
*Anode is a specific nickel alloy (lanthanum nickel - LaNi5). Lanthanum is protecting against corrosion, for a longer life
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• Cerium oxide CeO2 is acting as a catalyst for removing carbon deposits in the filterwithout increasing the exhaust temperature.
• The soot layer is oxidized : the carbon is oxidized to carbon monoxide and carbondioxide, which in turn passes through the membrane removes soot deposits from the porous filter walls.
CatalystCatalyst for for automotiveautomotive : clean diesel : clean diesel withwith Ce Ce particulateparticulate eliminationelimination
Demand for Rare Earths for Autocatalysts(Lynas):
AAGR is the Annual Average Growth Rate
5,9604.3%4,8304,740
Total REO consumption Auto catalysts
2010AAGR%2005-1020052004Tonnes per annum
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Rare earths are used in numerous catalytic Rare earths are used in numerous catalytic reactions reactions CatalystCatalyst for for oiloil
AAGR: Annual Average Growth Rate
18,4003.5%15,40014,900Total REO consumption FCCs
2010AAGR%2005-1020052004Tonnes per annum
• “REY” Cracking Catalysts catalysts: Fuid Cracking Catalysts (FCC) are used in the refining operation of crude oil to gasoline. The process enables the transformation of heavy molecules into lighter compounds Lanthanum Rich Rare Earth Salts with relatively "high" Rare Earth Loadings (1-5% by weight) are used to stabilize Zeolites used for the catalytic cracking of crude oils. Heavy oils and tars require an increased amount of rare earths compared to sweet light oils. the amount of FCC used per barrel of oil will increase.
Lanthanum increase oil refinery yields by 7%
• De-Sulfurization catalysts : containing Cerium
• Chemical Catalysts: Oxidation and hy(de)drogenation catalysts are improved with rare earths.
• Polymerization Catalysts: with Neodymium and Lanthanum compounds
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Military applications
A U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) report, concluded that numerous military systems, rely on rare-earth elements from China.
Rare Earth Material in the Defence supply chain, GAO, 1 april 2010, www.gao.gov
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R&DR&DR&D
A number of new technologies need REE (a not complete list)
•• Fuel Fuel CellCell SOFCsSOFCs (Y)(Y)•• MagneticMagnetic refrigerationrefrigeration (Gd)(Gd)•• Superconducting magnets (Y)Superconducting magnets (Y)• Doped GaN lasers for computing processors with REE• Etc.
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Fuel Fuel CellCell SOFCsSOFCs withwith REE components REE components ((Y, La, Ce, Gd)
A major potential consumer of yttrium is in solid oxide fuel cells which use yttrium-doped-zirconia (YSZ) cathodes.
Producing 50,000 units per year, there should be significant consumption.
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Gadolinium Gadolinium -- magneticmagnetic refrigerationrefrigeration
• A newly developed alloy, Gd5(Si2Ge2), with a “giant magnetocaloric effect” near room temperature reportedly will allowmagnetic refrigeration, considerably more efficient than gas-compression refrigeration
• magnetic refrigeration is clean tech, doesnot require flammable or toxichydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) refrigerants
• This technology could be employed in refrigerators, freezers, and residential, commercial, and automotive air conditioners.
Gadolinium alloy heats up inside the magnetic field and loses thermal energy to the environment
In some year or next decade ?In some year or next decade ?
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Superconducting magnets (SC magnets) Superconducting magnets (SC magnets) Yttrium Cerium Yttrium Cerium
SC magnets of :• 2 T: ordinary ferromagnetic-core electromagnets• 8.3 T: niobium-titanium (for LHC ITER)
• 13.5 Tesla: niobium-tin (Nb3Sn) (for LHC ITER central solenoid and toroidal field ).
• 26.8 Tesla: YBCO (Yttrium barium copper oxide ) world record field. High Temperature Superconductivity technology
Complex copper oxides, or “cuprates”
YBa2Cu3Ox (YBCO),Bi(Pb)2Sr2Ca2Cu3O10 (BSCCO)
Y, Y, CeCe
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High Temperature SuperconductivityHigh Temperature Superconductivity(HTS) technology is now being(HTS) technology is now beingdeployed in urban power gridsdeployed in urban power grids
HTS wire carries 140X the current of copper wire of the same dimensions
http://www.asmboston.org/GregYurekASMPresentation.pdf January 21, 2010
Superconductor HTS “Smart Grid” for New York
YYCeCe
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Next generation of SC Wind turbinesNext generation of SC Wind turbines
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Emission wavelengths from selected rare earth ions and associated bandgap energies of III-N semiconductors.
The use of light for improving the performance of Si microelectronics
Optoelectronic : REE doped GaN lasers for computing processors
The next optical revolutionis a computer processor
with higher speed
the integration of electronics and photonics on a single Si substrate
will result in the development of on-chip optoelectronics incorporatedwith electronic circuits and opticaldevices laser based on emissionfrom rare earth (RE) contained in
GaN heteroepitaxially grown on Si.
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Non industrial, speculative demandNon industrial, Non industrial, speculative demandspeculative demand
“ an absolute necessity to ban minor metals ETC ”
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ETC (ETF) * speculation on ETC (ETF) * speculation on physical REE physical REE
REE based ETF/ETC : Dacha Capital (Toronto)
* ETF Exchange trading funds or trackers • ETC (exchange trading commodities): Certificat garanti directement sur la matière
physique (et non sur un indice comme le sont les ETF). Les ETC sont un instrument super-spéculatif avec une exposition à 100% au prix du métal. Ils visent à stocker du métal pour raréfier l’offre (sur les métaux rares, les contrats sont à long terme et le spot est très limité), et ainsi provoquer une pénurie (shortage) artificielle.
• There is yet specicific ETC for gold, platinum, palladium, Indium, etc.
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Supply - Demand forecast to 2014Supply Supply -- Demand Demand forecast to 2014forecast to 2014
Source: Lynas
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Forecast demand in 2014: 170 -190 t TREO, assuming 8-11% per annum growth rate in
actual demand (does not include a booming demand from new technology)
Source: IMCOA presentation
Forecast demand (kt)
Source: Rhodia, IMCOA, Lynas
Global Rare Global Rare EarthsEarths MarketMarket
RoW: Rest of World
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Forecasting REE supply-demand in 2014
Source: Rhodia
Balance
Forecasting 2014, the REE supply (200kt) - demand (180 kt) equation will be globally “ finementéquilibrée ”, but it is necessary to take in account each element:
A supply deficit appear for Yttrium (3%), Neodymium (5%), Dysprosium (15%), Terbium (40%) will appear before 2014, for elements that are required for Rare Earth magnets but also phosphors
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2014 2014 -- Scenario 1: Maximum China supply plus new resourcesScenario 1: Maximum China supply plus new resources
Source: Lynas presentation MMTA, 04-2010, Distribution of Rare Earths resources from IMCOA, demand as per previous charts
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2014 2014 - Scenario 2: Reduction of Southern Ionic clay miningScenario 2: Reduction of Southern Ionic clay mining
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ReactionsReactions to the to the ChinaChina’’sstighteningtightening export control export control policiespolicies
•• Stockpiling, but according to specific products consumption, Stockpiling, but according to specific products consumption, both stockpiles (a strategic and a buffer stocks as in Russia)both stockpiles (a strategic and a buffer stocks as in Russia)•• Securing REE supply early, at the mine development stageSecuring REE supply early, at the mine development stage••Developing a domestic Developing a domestic ““mine to magnetmine to magnet”” supplysupply--chainchain•• WTO, Etc.WTO, Etc.
a new discipline:a new discipline: ““ rawraw materialmaterial ssecurity diplomacydiplomacy ””
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Strategic stockpiles : Strategic stockpiles : amplificatory of crisis ?amplificatory of crisis ?
30 t Huludao
5 t de KoreaZinc
1 t en 2009 total : 60-80t
Indium(In)
Achats en soutien aux producteurs affectés par la crise.
La couverture passera à 60 jours de conso en 2012, (contre 40 actuel)Achat de métaux rares x 6 en 2009
Couverture pour 42 jours de conso
0,5 t en 2009
Gallium(Ga)
60t en 2009 (Mo contenu)
319t en 2009(en V contenu)
130 t en 2009
JaponJapon(Via Jogmec)
ChineChine(Via le StrategicReserve Board ou SRB)
80 t en 2009
200t en 2009 CorCoréée du e du Sud *Sud *(Via Public Procurement Service ou PPS)
Lithium(Li)
Molybdène (Mo)
Ferro -Vanadium
Cobalt(Co)
2009
« buffer stocks, but how to stockpile materials without price affect » ?StockpileStockpile or not or not StockpileStockpile??
a bill introduced in March in the House by Representative Mike Coffman, Republican of Colorado, calls for the creation of a REE national security stockpile and for government loan guarantees for companies that want to mine and process rare-earth elements in the United States.
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Industry recovery/restockage or stockpilingtockpiling ??
• Japan– Japanese REE import : a 6 fold increase for February 2010
compared to the low point year earlier. – Japan is totally reliant on China for supplies– Japan has planned to increase its rare-earth metal stock. It
has been reported that Japan is now planning to increase its stock of rare metals for high-tech uses (including Pt, In, and REE).
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Industrial consumer get involved in financing Industrial consumer get involved in financing mining projects to secure REE concentrate supplymining projects to secure REE concentrate supply
– Rhodia Silcea with Lynas – Toyota with Great Western Minerals
Group (in negotiation)– Toshiba (Jogmec) with Kazakhtomprom, – Mitsubishi with Neo Material
Consumers seeking greater influence and control over the supply and price of mined products by forming equity and off take investments partnerschips
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MMéétaux critiques pour les Etats Unistaux critiques pour les Etats Unis
In Ga Ta, PGM (6), Rare Earth, Nb, Li, V, Ti, Mn
Risk matrix by element
The National Research Council (NRC) gives a list of « critical metals » for the US.
Risk matrix by industry for REE
Source: National Academy of Sciences, 2007
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US would like to develop a domestic rare earth supply chain
• (20-Oct-09) at the Critical and Strategic Metals conference in Washington D.C., The U.S. Department of Defense is investigating the development of a US domestic rare earths « mine to magnet » supply chain including mining, separation, refining, and first use compounds.
• But the investment community is reluctant to finance a new miningventure unless there is a manufacturing base that will buy the material and produce the components.
• US consumers have organised an interagency REE working group, Rare Earth Industry and Technology Association (REITA).
the last government's stock of rare earths in the National Defense Stockpile was shipped in 1998
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ConclusionConclusionConclusion
“ REE minerals are crucial to military hardware and many high-technology green energy applications for rare-earth elements as the latest wind turbines and
hybrid gasoline-electric cars ”.
“ We need reliable supply sources beyond China to reduce dependency on China for rare-earth elements ”
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World Resources, Mining Production and HREE supply
• Global rare earth metals reserves currently sufficient to meet needs, global reserves and resources exist which can meet needs well into the 21st Century.
• But, existing production (and REE availability for with the next reduction of Chinese export quotas) will in the next few years not be sufficient to meet world demand, particularly supplies of Nd and key HREE (Dy, Tb) will remain very tight with shortage risks
Will new sources outside China be online in time?Will new sources outside China be online in time?
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“A supply deficit appear for Yttrium (3%), Neodymium (5%), Dysprosium (15%), Terbium (40%) is very probable before 2014, for elements that are required for Rare
Earth magnets but also phosphors”
“ Rare Earths are critical, but some HREE are very critical, indispensable for clean energy technology, defense purposes, and consumer electronics, without much
substitute ”
“ Additional heavy rare earth production outside China must come online before 2014 in order to meet the significant annual global supply gaps projected and to
secure ROW supplies ”
“ Our concern isn't the Chinese production capabilities, our concern is the Chinese consumption capabilities. China is expected to make up a larger share of world demand. China will consuming all the rare earths they produce by about 2014.”
« Fears have developed that global green technology will be held hostage sincemany high-tech products require no substituable rare earth. »
“With its monopoly, China is jacking up prices by cutting production and exports and pressuring high-tech manufacturers to relocate and elaborate their products in
China.”
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Substitution Stratégic stockpileRecyclingNew deposits and mines
Some actions can be promoted as :
Domestic REE exploration & new overseas suppliers
R&D to find substitute and to
reduce the amount of rare earths needed
materials
Increased recycling of REE materials.
what product ? What quantity ?Price impact ?
Maintenance cost ?Stock A & stock B ?
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The urgency to finance and develop rapidly an The urgency to finance and develop rapidly an integrated supply chain integrated supply chain ““ore to ore to magnetmagnet”” UE UE
industryindustryPerhaps a better way than stockpiling is…
… first, to support new supply by financing new Heavy REE mining projects and processing plants outside China
Financing can be done through off-take or long term « take or pay » contracts with customers, The tendency is equity funding (mining companies are today with heavy debt), by governments agencies (Japanese Jogmec), Chinese sovereign funds, or initial public offering (IPO).
… second, is to support new processing capacity to elaborate REE permanent magnets
… third, last but not the least, is to create alast but not the least, is to create a ““minor metals minor metals observatoryobservatory”” to forecast price crisisto forecast price crisis..
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Rare Rare MetalsMetals : new : new productsproducts and and priceprice crisiscrisis
Major crisis are predicableMajor crisis are predicable
Early warning system
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Some recent documentation• Roskill Consulting Group 2007, Judith
Chegwidden, rare-earth specialist at Roskill• IZT (Germany, www.izt.de)• Dudley J Kingsnorth, Rare Earths: Facing New
Challenges in the New Decade”,IndustrialMinerals Company of Australia Pty Ltd (IMCOA), SME Annual Meeting 2010, Phoenix, Arizona
• Metal Page (prices)• Lanthanide Resources and Alternatives”, March
2010 www.oakdenehollins.co.uk• Rare Earth Material in the Defence supply chain,
GAO, 1 april 2010, www.gao.gov• China’s Rare Earth Element Industry: what can the
West learn, Cyndy Hurst, IAGS march 2010, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security
• Lynas presentation, MMTA 2010, Will There Be Sufficient Rare Earths To Meet Demand From Clean Energy Technology?, London, April 2010
• OCDE-BIAC, 9 oct 2009, workshop on export restrictions
• RareMetalBlog• Jack Lifton, Resource Investor• Rare Earths Information Centre (USA)
Web Elements• Molycorp
AMR TechnologiesTanjiao (China)
• DaibeckShin-Etsu Chemicals
• Akzo NobelEngelhardJohnson Matthey -
• Ferro Corporation London & Scandinavian Metallurgical Co
• Asahi Glass CompanyTechneglas
• ADMAT Inc.www.admatinc.com
• AMR Technologies, Inc.www-amr-ltd.com
• Arris International Corporationhttp://www.arris-intl.com
• Australian Rare Earth Newsletter www.ozemail.con.au or www.ozemail.com.au/~marcusr/aren/no_4.htm
• ChemConnect—Connecting Buyers & Sellers Worldwide http://www.chemconnect.com
• Earth-Panda Magnetswww.earth-panda.com
• European Rare-Earth Actinide Societywww-eres.unil.ch/docs/links.htm
• Metall Pacific Corporationwww.metall.com.cn
• Molycorp, Inc. www-molycorp.com
• Rare Earth Congress www.dq.ufscar.br/labs/LACREMM/RAREEARTH/congress.html
• Rare-earth Information Centerwww.external.ameslab.gov/ric
• The Rare Earth Society of Japanhttp://kidouri.chem.eng.osaka-u.ac.jp/Eindex.html
• Rare-Earth Worldwww.RE-World.net
• Rhodiawww.rhodia.ext.imaginet.fr/gb/home/gauche.html
• Tianjiao International Newsletter www.baotou.com/newsletter.htm
• US Geological Survey http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity
• Other Junior mining websites : • Arafura Resources Limited • Avalon Rare Metals Inc.• Great Western Minerals Group Ltd.• Lynas Corporation Ltd.• Molycorp Minerals, LLC• Neo Materials Technology Inc.• Rare Element Resources Ltd.
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