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Page 1: Prospects and policies for global food security

Prospects and Policies for Global Food Security

Clemens Breisinger

Country Program Leader, Egypt

Senior Research Fellow

IFPRI

BioVisionAlexandria 2016, 12–14 April 2016

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Food Security towards 2050Socioeconomic drivers, climate change,

and global and regional impacts to 2050

Based on a presentation by Keith WiebeSenior Research Fellow

IFPRI

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• IMPACT – an integrated modeling system to assess agricultural and food security scenarios

• Collaboration with all 15 CGIAR centers through GFSF

• Collaboration with other global economic modeling groups through AgMIP

Foresight Modeling

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Socioeconomic drivers Projected pathways to 2100

Source: Downloaded from the RCP Database version 2.0.5 (2015). RCP 2.6: van Vuuren et al. 2006; van Vuuren et al. 2007. RCP 4.5: Clark et al. 2007; Smith and Wigley 2006; Wise et al 2009. RCP 6.0: Fujino et al 2006; Hijioka et al 2008. RCP 8.5: Riahi and Nakicenovic, 2007.

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Changes in diets (SSP2, NoCC)Projected pathways to 2050

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

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Total global food demand (SSP2, NoCC)Projected pathways to 2050

20

10

= 1

.0

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, September 2015

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Growth in global cereal production (SSP2, NoCC)Projected pathways to 2050

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

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Modeling climate impacts on agriculture:biophysical and economic effects

General circulation models (GCMs)

Global gridded crop models

(GGCMs)

Global economic models

Δ TempΔ Precip

Δ Yield(biophys)

Δ AreaΔ YieldΔ Cons.Δ Trade

Climate Biophysical Economic

Source: Nelson et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2014)

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Climate change impacts on cereal yields differ by region and crop (SSP2)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

WLD = World; EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

Maize

Wheat

Cereals

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Net cereal trade and climate change(SSP2)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

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Population at risk of hunger (SSP2, RCP8.5)

Source: IFPRI, IMPACT version 3.2, November 2015

EAP = East Asia and Pacific; EUR = Europe; FSU = Former Soviet Union; LAC = Latin America and Caribbean; MEN = Middle East and North Africa; NAM = North America; SAS = South Asia; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa

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Improved technologies and practices can help mitigating negative effects of CC

-40.0

-35.0

-30.0

-25.0

-20.0

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

Malnourished Children Pop. at-risk-of-hunger

No till Drought tolerance Heat tolerance

Nitrogen use efficiency Integrated soil fertility mgt Precision agriculture

Water harvesting Sprinkler irrigation Drip irrigation

Crop Protection - insects

Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)

Food security(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

Source: Islam et al. (draft)

Crop yields(Percent difference from 2050 CC baseline)

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Take away messages

• Significant differences across regions, crops, scenarios

• Economic responses reduce biophysical impacts, but they depend critically on policy and market conditions – and decisions

• Significant challenges for decision makers at all levels

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Three Examples for Evidence-Based Support For Reforming Food Systems at

Global, MENA Regional and Country-Level

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IFPRI Global Food Policy Report 2016

IFPRI – USAID collaboration

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Thank you

Please contact us for further information at

www.egyptssp.ifpri.info

and

[email protected]