Projected Performance Development
TOP 500 Performance Projection
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
N=1
N=500
SUM
1 Gflop/s
1 Tflop/s
100 Mflop/s
100 Gflop/s
100 Tflop/s
10 Gflop/s
10 Tflop/s
1 Pflop/s
10 Pflop/s
1 Eflop/s
100 Pflop/s
DARPA HPCS
BlueGene/L
The Exponential Growth
of Computing, 1900-1998
Hollerith Tabulator
Bell Calculator Model 1
ENIAC
IBM 704
IBM 360 Model 75
Cray 1
Pentium II PC
Adapted from Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines
The Exponential Growth
of Computing, 1900-2100
Adapted from Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines
Growth of Computing Power
and “Mental Power”
Hans Moravec, CACM 10, 2003, pp 90-97
Why this simplistic view is
wrong
• Unsuitability of Current Architectures
– Teraflop systems are focused on excelling in
computing; only one of the six (or eight)
dimensions of human intelligence
• Fundamental lack of mathematical models for
cognitive processes
– That’s why we are not using the most powerful
computers today for cognitive tasks
• Complexity limits
–We don’t even know yet how to model
turbulence, how then do we model thought?
“The computer model turns
out not to be helpful in
explaining what people
actually do when they think
and perceive”
Hubert Dreyfus, pg.189
Example: one of the biggest
success stories of machine
intelligence, the chess
computer “Deep Blue”, did not
teach us anything about how a
chess grandmaster thinks.
Six Dimensions of Intelligence
1. Verbal-Linguistic
ability to think in words and to use language to express and appreciate complex concepts
2. Logical-Mathematical
makes it possible to calculate, quantify, consider propositions and hypotheses, and carry out complex mathematical operations
3. Spatial
capacity to think and orientate in physical three-dimensional environment
4. Bodily-Kinestheticability to manipulate objects and fine-tune physical skills
5. Musical
sensitivity to pitch, melody, rhythm, and tone
6. Interpersonal
capacity to understand and interact effectively with others
Howard Gardner. Frames of Mind: The Theory of Multiple
Intelligences. New York: Basic Books, 1983, 1993.
Current State of
Supercomputers
Retina to Visual
Cortex Mapping
http://cgl.elte.hu/~racz/santafe.html
Building New Models
• About 1/3 of human brain is probably dedicated
towards processing of visual information
• We have only very rudimentary knowledge of the
principles for human vision computing
• Research project by Don Glaser at UC Berkeley
investigates mapping from retina to visual cortex
• Attempt to model “optical illusions” and simple
movement of objects in the visual cortex
• Current models limited to about 10**5 neurons
• Supercomputer project at NERSC in 2005
Fourth Observation about
CSE
4. There are vast areas of science and engineering where CSE has not even begun to make an impact
– current list of CSE applications is almost the same as 15 years ago
– current set of architectures is capturing only a small subset of human cognitive abilities
– in many scientific areas there is still an almost complete absence of computational models
See also: Y. Deng, J. Glimm, and D. H. Sharp, Perspectives on Parallel
Computing, Daedalus Vol 12 (1992) 31-52.
Major Application Areas of
CSE• Science
– Global climate modeling
– Astrophysical modeling
– Biology: genomics, protein folding, drug design
– Computational chemistry
– Computational material sciences and nanosciences
• Engineering– Crash simulation
– Semiconductor design
– Earthquake and structural modeling
– Computational fluid dynamics
– Combustion
• Business– Financial and economic modeling
– Transaction processing, web services, and search engines
• Defense– Nuclear weapons—test by simulations
– Cryptography
This list from 2004 is identical to a list from 1992!
Your vote counts
A Zettaflops computer will have emergent
intelligent behavior.
The first sustained Petaflops application
will use MPI.
The first sustained Exaflops application
will use MPI.
Projected Performance DevelopmentTOP 500 Performance ProjectionThe Exponential Growth �of Computing, 1900-1998The Exponential Growth �of Computing, 1900-2100Why this simplistic view is wrongSix Dimensions of IntelligenceCurrent State of SupercomputersRetina to Visual�Cortex MappingBuilding New ModelsFourth Observation about CSEMajor Application Areas of �CSEYour vote counts
Top Related