Project RLA/013/10
Framework for adaptation policies to current and future
drought in the Dominican Republic and in Cuba
NOVIEMBRE 2006NOVIEMBRE 2006
ObjectivesObjectives
To strengthen and facilitate adaptaton to drought by socio-economic sectors impacted by climate change and variablity
To propose and implement adaptation policies in local and regional territorial planning, with emphasis on the population and productive activities
Human interventionHuman intervention
• Deforestation• Inappropriate tecnology • Improper use or contamination of water
sources• Improper use of soils
1. Can increase drought severity
2. Can reduce its impact
• Rational use of natural resources
• Adaptation measures
Why Las Tunas ?
Dry Sub-humid
Annual precipitation <800mm <1000mmmMonths of drought 9-11 8-10evaporation 2000/2400mm >2400mmprec/evap. >60 >40
dry
Sub- humid
Affects: 14 % of the country, 1056 settlements (94% of them rural) and more than 1 million inhabitants
Source Ministry of Agriculture, 1995
Distribution of dry zones
MANATÍ
PUERTO PADRE
J. MENÉNDEZ
Case study: CUBALAS TUNAS PROVINCE
MUNICIPALITIES
• 3 municipalities
• Total surface 2 771 km2
• Total population of 180 000 inhabitants
• Population density of 68 pp/km2
• 69 settlements > 500 inhabitants
Area studiedArea studied
SURVEY
PROSPECTUS
ASSESSMENT
FRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTATION POLICIESFRAMEWORK FOR ADAPTATION POLICIES
SCENARIOS
Stages of the research
CHAPTER I
CHAPTER II
CHAPTER III
CHAPTER IV
Proposed adaptation measures for the current situation
Proposed adaptation measures per future scenario
1
2
3
4
5
6
Introduction
Objectives, scope, content, methodology
Synthesis of the assessment
Survey design
7
Results of the survey of farmers
8
Results of survey of the population
Survey results for key informants
9
10
Vulnerability of the agricultural sector
Vulnerability of the population
11
V = I - AV = I - A
Socio-economic assessment of the province and the municipalities
(Schema y master plans)
Agro-productivity of the soilsAgro-productivity of the soils
Water resources
Situation: some dry reservoirs, others with low water accumulation
Historical precipitation average diminishes from 1126 mm to 998 mm
SYNTHESIS OF THE PROBLEMATIC
Proposal for transformation
Low agricultural productivity, salinity
Territorial Planning Territorial Planning Studies, DPPF Las Tunas Studies, DPPF Las Tunas (Adaptation)(Adaptation)
forestry
pastures
idle land
sugarcane
Mixed crops
Soil usage
tourism
Protected area
Underground water
Bad drainage
Forestry
Average agricultural productivity
Move from sugarcane to pastures
Natural potential
IMPACTSIMPACTSADAPTATION ADAPTATION MEASURESMEASURES
CURRENT CURRENT VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
Conceptual modelConceptual model
HypothesisHypothesis
The population’s response capacity depends on:
• education level• extent of information that the population has on drought
Drought influences social vulnerability social in regard to:• housing conditions and typology
• hygiene and sanitary conditions • overcrowding in housing • vectors• illnesses augmented by drought
Migration of the population to other territories is a reflection of:
• soil degradation• water scarcity• lack of employment
Selection of indicatorsSelection of indicatorsSelection of indicatorsSelection of indicators
Method of analysis: SurveyMethod of analysis: Survey
Areas studiedAreas studied Areas studiedAreas studied
primary surveyprimary surveyprimary surveyprimary survey
(direct information from an informant - written or verbal)(direct information from an informant - written or verbal)
QQualitative procedure, sample determined by expert judgement, based on soil usage and population distribution
Proposal: Total to survey = 34 settlements, covering 49% of the area, 2.3% of the population and 929 people interviewed
Actual: 57 settlements and 940 people interviewed
Selected locations
Types of surveys:
Individual interviewIndividual interviewIndividual interviewIndividual interview
• concentrated housing• dispersed housing• farmer• key informant
Group interviewGroup interviewGroup interviewGroup interview• farmers
Open interviewOpen interviewOpen interviewOpen interview• socio-economic sectors and scientific institutions (agriculture, environment, sanitation, health care)
Variables• Personal and community safety Personal and community safety • Food security, health and Food security, health and
economic problemseconomic problems• Environmental safety and Environmental safety and
public policiespublic policies
• Personal and community safety Personal and community safety • Food security, health and Food security, health and
economic problemseconomic problems• Environmental safety and Environmental safety and
public policiespublic policies
• Training workshop for actors and interviewers
• Workshop after survey data collected but before it was processed
• Objectives were to gather views on the territory visited, perceptions of the drought impacts, solutions implemented to date and assistance provided by local governments and the population itself
TALLERES
Workshops with the interviewers (very positive)
Survey resultsSurvey results
Main Problems
Farmers Population Key informants
Lack of rain (drought) Transportation Water distribution for people, cattle and agriculture
Low crop yields Drought Housing (roofing and walls)
Cattle and self-sufficiency affected
Recreation Transportation and repair of roads
Forestry and bee farming affected
Food Waste water treatment
Housing
Vulnerability to drought
Vulnerability of the agricultural sector by Vulnerability of the agricultural sector by People’s Councils (districts)People’s Councils (districts)
Vulnerability of the livestock farming sector by People’s Councils (districts)
Vulnerability of the forestry sector by People’s Councils
Final vulnerability index
Productive sector
Drought adaptation policies
Adaptation policies
Scenarios
Current vulnerability
(Impact - Adaptation)
Survey assessment and results
ScenariosScenarios
• Hypothetical scenarios allow for anticipatory actions to be undertaken in the present, to reduce future vulnerability to drought on the local level.
• Selection of 25 key variables
Impact, vulnerability and adaptation matrix established:
• Giving an order of priority to measures and actions identified
• Existing facilities for their implementation
:.
ADAPTATION POLICIES
Thematic area
Policies
Soils Restablishment of the fertility indexes.
Crops Improving the territorial planning program and soil use management.Achieving efficient irrigation methods.Development of urban agriculture and family gardens.
Livestock Development of sustainable family livestock farming.
Improvment of the contingency plan for drought in the livestock sector.
Forestry Reforestation of the territory and rational use of existing forest areas.
Water Rational use of water resources.
ADAPTATION POLICIES
Settlements and population
Raise awareness of and capacity for drought adaptation,
Minimize the impact on forests due to consumption of charcoal and wood-burning,
Guarantee adequate levels of food security on a permanent basis,
Improve the population’s quality of life,
Organizational aspects
Improve intervention mehcanisms and participation in dealing with drought.
Training Expand training on drought management.
Housing Meet the needs for appropriate housing and water services.
Infrastructure Access and comunication for the entire population to regional
centres, to seek employment and services.
DROUGHT ADAPTATION Measures proposed
WATER (26)SOILS (13)AGRICULTURE (26)LIVESTOCK (15)FORESTRY (15)BEE FARMING (6)POPULATION (16)HOUSING AND SETTLEMENTS (25)
Total 142
Priority I - 95
Priority II - 25
Priority III - 22
Lessons learned (positive)
• Inter-disciplinary team with members from various institutions
• Dynamic testing conducted to validate the surveys
• The need for territorial baseline data
• Support from institutions and government at all stages of the project facilitated the training of actors and the implementation of results
• Training workshops held with various actors at different moments of the research project
• The alliance and joint work carried out between scientists from two fields (meterology and planning) enhanced the quality of the results obtained
• Selection of the area to be studied based on expert judgement and the appplication of the survey in the middle of a severe drought
• The use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) for spatial representation of the vulnerability and its components
• The use of scenario techniques (climatic, economic and social variables), the identification of existign strengths and barriers in order to arrive at a proposal for adaptation measures
• The research results allowed for the elaboration of specific project outlines for achieving adaptation in different time periods and affected territories
• Potential for application of this experience in other countries in the region with similar characteristics
• Incorporation of the results into the territorial planning
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