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Page 1: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory CommitteeDecember 12, 2013

Maximo ToreroMarkets, Trade, and Institutions

Division DirectorIFPRI

Using Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition

Page 2: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Overview

• The Challenge: Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.

• The Opportunity: Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?

• A4NH Theme 1 Research: How is it embracing this opportunity?

Page 3: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

THE CHALLENGE

Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.

Page 4: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Income Growth Can Reduce Child Stunting, But Other Actions Needed

A 10% increase in GDP/PC

leads to a 6% reduction in

stunting

Source: Ruel and Alderman, 2013

Page 5: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

A Changing Focus for Agriculture and Nutrition

• Increased calorie production and incomes no longer seen as agriculture’s only role in improved nutrition

• Focus on how agriculture influences other important determinants of child stunting– Women’s empowerment, education, time – Sanitation and water quality– Nutrient density and diet quality/diversity

Page 6: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Dietary Transition• Diet shift from staples base to other foods is well-known

development outcome• Healthy diet diversity includes vegetables, fruits, legumes,

animal source foods– Documented link to improved micronutrient density and

nutrition outcomes at micro level• Undesirable increase in fats, sugars, processed foods now

occurring at lower income levels with food system modernization

• Emerging double burden of over and under nutrition in many countries

Page 7: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Diet Diversification: Food Group Shares (kcal/cap/day)

2005

87

38 52

553

85130

24

Bangladesh

1596

10056

515

75

285

63

468

90

China

Starchy staples

Starchystaples

NutrientRich Foods

NutrientRich Foods

Fats and SugarsFats and Sugars

Data Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2009

Page 8: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Summary: Income Growth Not Sufficient for Desired Nutrition

• Income not perfect driver for improved diets, nutrition– Lags in reducing stunting; emerging double burden

• Improved diets mean increases in diet diversity and consumption of nutrient rich foods– Micronutrient density and relationship to nutrition

at micro level well-established– Potential for “unhealthy” diversity reinforced by

structural trends in urbanization, retailing

Page 9: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

THE OPPORTUNITY

Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?

Page 10: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Why Income Growth is Not Sufficient: Market Failures and Diet Quality

• Consumer knowledge incomplete– nutrition, nutrient content/ safety of foods

• Supply constraints for nutrient rich foods– perishability, seasonality, variable nutrient

content, food safety, transport• Result: Under-provision of improved nutrition

and food safety

Page 11: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Are There Also Public Failures?

• Public focus on staple crops means underinvestment in nutrient rich foods– Pulses in India

• Public focus on meeting food safety standards for high income market access means underinvestment in public health oriented food safety– Aflatoxins

Page 12: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Inputs into production

Food production

Food storage and processing

Food distribution and transport

Food retail and labeling

Value Chain Approach

Consumer

Producer

Supply side

Develop and test solutions

Demand side

Characterize diets, market access and constraints to

consumption of nutritious, safe foods

Test solutions to improve demand for nutrition and

safety along the value chain

Identify production and market constraints to

improved nutrition and safety

Example: Increased seasonal availability of

fruit

Example: Nutrition education delivered by vegetable seed

supplier

Page 13: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Elements of This Approach

• Each value chain study for a nutrient-rich food should include all of these elements: – Dietary and nutritional assessment of target population– Identification of key foods to improve / diversify diets– Mapping of the value chain for these foods– Identification of constraints to supply and to demand– Developing and/or testing interventions– Identification of enabling policies– Assessment of diet quality impact in target population

Page 14: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

C Changes in Value Chains that Could Improve Nutrition

• Technologies– Improvements in production, storage, handling, processing, or marketing to

reduce nutritional loss, improve access, or reduce safety risks, eg. Greater seasonal availability for fruits

• Information– Increased demand for improved safety and nutrition through education or

improved incentives for different actors in the value chain, eg. Nutrition education with improved vegetable seeds

– Nutritional quality reflected in prices and/or made more affordable, eg., Quality certification for locally sourced infant foods

• Policies and Institutions– New contractual arrangements create incentives to deliver more nutrient

rich foods or to create demand for such foods, eg. Home grown school lunch programs

Page 15: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Value Chain Impacts at Market / Whole Diet Level?

• Develop markets for high value crops– Increase income for producers– Reduce relative prices of nutrient rich foods– Increase consumer access to healthy diversity

• Leverage market incentives to enhance nutritional outcomes from markets– Partnerships with private sector to direct market

development towards better nutrition• Can this provide the foundation for a more healthy

dietary transition?

Page 16: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

A4NH THEME 1 RESEARCH

How is A4NH research embracing this opportunity and leveraging existing CGIAR expertise?

Page 17: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Building theA4NH Portfolio

• 2012– Centers: Bioversity, IFPRI, IITA, ICRAF, WorldFish – Smallest share of A4NH budget

• 2013– Seed Grants Awarded to Foster New Research, March– Workshop for Program Development, June– New Research Staff at IFPRI, September – Aflatoxin Vision 2020 Policy Briefs, November– Expanded Partnerships: AVDRC, Tufts, IDS, GAIN

Page 18: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Leveraging Production Technologies

• Seasonality and Vitamin C content of mango (ICRAF)

• Biocontrol of aflatoxin in maize and groundnut (IITA and ICRISAT)

• Infant food development using small fish (WorldFish)

• VC Research role: Test market viability and nutritional impact from these technologies

Page 19: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Leveraging thePrivate Sector

• Danone-Grameen fortified yoghurt venture– Income enhancement for poor women– Nutrition enhancement for vulnerable groups

• Vegetable seed suppliers in Bangladesh and Kenya– Nutrition messages with production extension– Encourage home consumption– Expand demand to support expanded supply

• VC Research role: Validate responsible efforts; Identify scalable opportunities

Page 20: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Leveraging Market Incentives for Reduced Aflatoxins

• Aflatoxins naturally occurring and can enter or multiply at any stage from production to consumption

• Market solutions to improve/reward control:– Testing and certification through maize millers– Alternate uses, eg., oil processing, animal feeds– Training and product testing delivered through farmer

organizations– Biocontrol adoption linked to feed markets

• VC Research role: Test market interventions

Page 21: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Leveraging Dedicated Supply Chains

• Home Grown School Feeding Programs– Develop and reward local supply chains for school

feeding– Promote nutrition education linked to local foods– Support child nutrition, school performance, habit

formation• VC Research role: measure nutrition,

education, and market synergies

Page 22: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Research Finding Highlight:Health Benefits and Agricultural Contracts

Experimental Evidence from Northern Senegal

• Research question: – Can health-related incentives be used to improve contract enforcement with small-scale

agricultural suppliers?– Can existing value chain logistics be leveraged to increase health conditions in remote

locations?

• Context: – Semi-nomadic milk producers, very remote location– Milking efforts by women, cash collected by men– Highly unreliable milk supply, particularly in dry season– Extreme level of anemia prevalence for children in the area (82% anemic, 15% severe

anemic).

• Study– Randomized control trial amongst 430 milk supliers to te LDB

• Contract for « x » liters/day per lactating cows for all suppliers. • Half of the producers receive iron fortified porridge for children upon satisfaction of contract on

weekly basis.

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-.10

.1.2

Jan 2

7

Feb 17

Mar 10

Mar 31

Apr 21

May 12

Jun 2

Jun 2

3Ju

l 14

Aug 4

Aug 25

Sep 15

Note: Impact parameter estimate for separate impact estimates ran each week. Lowess smoothing function used across estimates. Dahes lines are 95% confidence interval

Note: Generalized propensity score estimate used to deal with endogeneity of treatment intensity. Green and red lines are 95% confidence interval

Clear and significant effect on milk delivery during dry seasonOrder of magnitude: 10 percentage point (=30%) higher contract fulfillment in treatment group in early June.

Positive dose-response effect on children’s health (Hemoglobin level)Order of magnitude: 1.25 g/dl Hemoglobin increase for 16 weeks of continuous fortified poridge intake.

Research Finding Highlight:Health Benefits and Agricultural Contracts

Experimental Evidence from Northern Senegal

Page 24: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Research Plan Highlight: Testing Incentives for Aflatoxin Control

• Research Goal: To test the demand for maize that meets an aflatoxin standard and the profitability of a certification system– Collaboration with Cereal Miller’s Association of

Kenya– 3rd party certified maize offered at different prices

compared to untested maize– Information effects tested through random

advertising campaigns

Page 25: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

Looking Forward to 2015 and Beyond

• What policies support healthy food systems? • Integrated policy studies in focus countries:

– Value chains for nutrient rich foods– Nutrition information policies– Market institutions for food quality– Price and agricultural investment policies

Page 26: Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory Committee December 12, 2013

THANK YOU!

For more information on A4NH Value Chain Research: http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org/our-research/value-chains-for-enhanced-nutrition/