Presentation to the A4NH Independent Advisory CommitteeDecember 12, 2013
Maximo ToreroMarkets, Trade, and Institutions
Division DirectorIFPRI
Using Value Chains to Promote a Healthy Dietary Transition
Overview
• The Challenge: Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.
• The Opportunity: Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?
• A4NH Theme 1 Research: How is it embracing this opportunity?
THE CHALLENGE
Income growth and market development are not sufficient to improve nutrition and food safety.
Income Growth Can Reduce Child Stunting, But Other Actions Needed
A 10% increase in GDP/PC
leads to a 6% reduction in
stunting
Source: Ruel and Alderman, 2013
A Changing Focus for Agriculture and Nutrition
• Increased calorie production and incomes no longer seen as agriculture’s only role in improved nutrition
• Focus on how agriculture influences other important determinants of child stunting– Women’s empowerment, education, time – Sanitation and water quality– Nutrient density and diet quality/diversity
Dietary Transition• Diet shift from staples base to other foods is well-known
development outcome• Healthy diet diversity includes vegetables, fruits, legumes,
animal source foods– Documented link to improved micronutrient density and
nutrition outcomes at micro level• Undesirable increase in fats, sugars, processed foods now
occurring at lower income levels with food system modernization
• Emerging double burden of over and under nutrition in many countries
Diet Diversification: Food Group Shares (kcal/cap/day)
2005
87
38 52
553
85130
24
Bangladesh
1596
10056
515
75
285
63
468
90
China
Starchy staples
Starchystaples
NutrientRich Foods
NutrientRich Foods
Fats and SugarsFats and Sugars
Data Source: FAO Food Balance Sheets, 2009
Summary: Income Growth Not Sufficient for Desired Nutrition
• Income not perfect driver for improved diets, nutrition– Lags in reducing stunting; emerging double burden
• Improved diets mean increases in diet diversity and consumption of nutrient rich foods– Micronutrient density and relationship to nutrition
at micro level well-established– Potential for “unhealthy” diversity reinforced by
structural trends in urbanization, retailing
THE OPPORTUNITY
Can value chain research improve market performance for nutrition and food safety?
Why Income Growth is Not Sufficient: Market Failures and Diet Quality
• Consumer knowledge incomplete– nutrition, nutrient content/ safety of foods
• Supply constraints for nutrient rich foods– perishability, seasonality, variable nutrient
content, food safety, transport• Result: Under-provision of improved nutrition
and food safety
Are There Also Public Failures?
• Public focus on staple crops means underinvestment in nutrient rich foods– Pulses in India
• Public focus on meeting food safety standards for high income market access means underinvestment in public health oriented food safety– Aflatoxins
Inputs into production
Food production
Food storage and processing
Food distribution and transport
Food retail and labeling
Value Chain Approach
Consumer
Producer
Supply side
Develop and test solutions
Demand side
Characterize diets, market access and constraints to
consumption of nutritious, safe foods
Test solutions to improve demand for nutrition and
safety along the value chain
Identify production and market constraints to
improved nutrition and safety
Example: Increased seasonal availability of
fruit
Example: Nutrition education delivered by vegetable seed
supplier
Elements of This Approach
• Each value chain study for a nutrient-rich food should include all of these elements: – Dietary and nutritional assessment of target population– Identification of key foods to improve / diversify diets– Mapping of the value chain for these foods– Identification of constraints to supply and to demand– Developing and/or testing interventions– Identification of enabling policies– Assessment of diet quality impact in target population
C Changes in Value Chains that Could Improve Nutrition
• Technologies– Improvements in production, storage, handling, processing, or marketing to
reduce nutritional loss, improve access, or reduce safety risks, eg. Greater seasonal availability for fruits
• Information– Increased demand for improved safety and nutrition through education or
improved incentives for different actors in the value chain, eg. Nutrition education with improved vegetable seeds
– Nutritional quality reflected in prices and/or made more affordable, eg., Quality certification for locally sourced infant foods
• Policies and Institutions– New contractual arrangements create incentives to deliver more nutrient
rich foods or to create demand for such foods, eg. Home grown school lunch programs
Value Chain Impacts at Market / Whole Diet Level?
• Develop markets for high value crops– Increase income for producers– Reduce relative prices of nutrient rich foods– Increase consumer access to healthy diversity
• Leverage market incentives to enhance nutritional outcomes from markets– Partnerships with private sector to direct market
development towards better nutrition• Can this provide the foundation for a more healthy
dietary transition?
A4NH THEME 1 RESEARCH
How is A4NH research embracing this opportunity and leveraging existing CGIAR expertise?
Building theA4NH Portfolio
• 2012– Centers: Bioversity, IFPRI, IITA, ICRAF, WorldFish – Smallest share of A4NH budget
• 2013– Seed Grants Awarded to Foster New Research, March– Workshop for Program Development, June– New Research Staff at IFPRI, September – Aflatoxin Vision 2020 Policy Briefs, November– Expanded Partnerships: AVDRC, Tufts, IDS, GAIN
Leveraging Production Technologies
• Seasonality and Vitamin C content of mango (ICRAF)
• Biocontrol of aflatoxin in maize and groundnut (IITA and ICRISAT)
• Infant food development using small fish (WorldFish)
• VC Research role: Test market viability and nutritional impact from these technologies
Leveraging thePrivate Sector
• Danone-Grameen fortified yoghurt venture– Income enhancement for poor women– Nutrition enhancement for vulnerable groups
• Vegetable seed suppliers in Bangladesh and Kenya– Nutrition messages with production extension– Encourage home consumption– Expand demand to support expanded supply
• VC Research role: Validate responsible efforts; Identify scalable opportunities
Leveraging Market Incentives for Reduced Aflatoxins
• Aflatoxins naturally occurring and can enter or multiply at any stage from production to consumption
• Market solutions to improve/reward control:– Testing and certification through maize millers– Alternate uses, eg., oil processing, animal feeds– Training and product testing delivered through farmer
organizations– Biocontrol adoption linked to feed markets
• VC Research role: Test market interventions
Leveraging Dedicated Supply Chains
• Home Grown School Feeding Programs– Develop and reward local supply chains for school
feeding– Promote nutrition education linked to local foods– Support child nutrition, school performance, habit
formation• VC Research role: measure nutrition,
education, and market synergies
Research Finding Highlight:Health Benefits and Agricultural Contracts
Experimental Evidence from Northern Senegal
• Research question: – Can health-related incentives be used to improve contract enforcement with small-scale
agricultural suppliers?– Can existing value chain logistics be leveraged to increase health conditions in remote
locations?
• Context: – Semi-nomadic milk producers, very remote location– Milking efforts by women, cash collected by men– Highly unreliable milk supply, particularly in dry season– Extreme level of anemia prevalence for children in the area (82% anemic, 15% severe
anemic).
• Study– Randomized control trial amongst 430 milk supliers to te LDB
• Contract for « x » liters/day per lactating cows for all suppliers. • Half of the producers receive iron fortified porridge for children upon satisfaction of contract on
weekly basis.
-.10
.1.2
Jan 2
7
Feb 17
Mar 10
Mar 31
Apr 21
May 12
Jun 2
Jun 2
3Ju
l 14
Aug 4
Aug 25
Sep 15
Note: Impact parameter estimate for separate impact estimates ran each week. Lowess smoothing function used across estimates. Dahes lines are 95% confidence interval
Note: Generalized propensity score estimate used to deal with endogeneity of treatment intensity. Green and red lines are 95% confidence interval
Clear and significant effect on milk delivery during dry seasonOrder of magnitude: 10 percentage point (=30%) higher contract fulfillment in treatment group in early June.
Positive dose-response effect on children’s health (Hemoglobin level)Order of magnitude: 1.25 g/dl Hemoglobin increase for 16 weeks of continuous fortified poridge intake.
Research Finding Highlight:Health Benefits and Agricultural Contracts
Experimental Evidence from Northern Senegal
Research Plan Highlight: Testing Incentives for Aflatoxin Control
• Research Goal: To test the demand for maize that meets an aflatoxin standard and the profitability of a certification system– Collaboration with Cereal Miller’s Association of
Kenya– 3rd party certified maize offered at different prices
compared to untested maize– Information effects tested through random
advertising campaigns
Looking Forward to 2015 and Beyond
• What policies support healthy food systems? • Integrated policy studies in focus countries:
– Value chains for nutrient rich foods– Nutrition information policies– Market institutions for food quality– Price and agricultural investment policies
THANK YOU!
For more information on A4NH Value Chain Research: http://www.a4nh.cgiar.org/our-research/value-chains-for-enhanced-nutrition/
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