PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND AI: CONSTRUCTION’S NEW FRONTIER
Jit Kee Chin
EVP & Chief Data Officer
Suffolk
Jit Kee ChinEVP & Chief Data Officer
PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS AND AI:CONSTRUCTION’S NEW FRONTIER
What is predictive analytics? “A variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modelling and machine learning, that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events”
- Wikipedia
Sports - Baseball NETFLIX Maintenance Healthcare
Predictive Safety - Recapping the problem
Will an incident happen in the
next week?
700k+ images
360projects
10years
Proof of Concept – what it looks like
User interface Mockup
Model testingresults
Power of Predictive – one year on
Examples today:• Safety: Predicting incidents before they occur• Schedule: Predicting how long schedules will take• Weather delays: Predicting weather contingency for schedules
Future?• Quality: Predicting what issue (RfI, submittal) to attend to first • Pricing: Through-cycle prediction of supply chain pricing • Asset management: Predictive maintenance for assets
Figure 9: Industry Executives’ perception of the future landscape (within 5 years)
Source: KPMG 2019 Future-ready Index
• Data extraction• Data aggregation, cleansing,
alignment, augmentation• Model building, application,
tuning and sensitivity testing• Connectivity and visualization• Production• Ongoing refinement and
maintenance
Requirements of PredictiveData Time
• High quantities• Organized• Cleaned
Capabilities Cost
Petabytes vs Terabytes
6 to 12 months vs1 – 2 years
• Business “translation”• Data engineering• Data science
• Visualization • Software engineering• Data architecture
10 FTEs vs. 5 to 10 FTEs
• Storage• Processing • People
$500k to $2m vs.2-3% fee
Limitations of PredictiveQuestions it cannot answer Implementation implications
What was the precise cause of that risk?
Who caused that risk?
Has that risk been addressed?
Was this prediction biased?
I’ve changed behavior, now what?
• Actions taken should address aggregate risk rather than specific risk
• Culture to embrace the aggregate outcome rather than focus on the specific• Positive reinforcement rather than negative
• Prediction does not change behavior; needs to be integrated into a workflow that ties together people, process, technology to drive change
• Significant effort to unbias, starting with data
• Regular model re-trainings, significant maintenance
Predictive - Value at stake
WORKERS NOT INJURED TOTAL COST IMPACT
40 $1.4M
100 $3.6M
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2017 report; NIH Study, “Costs of Occupational Injuries in Construction in the United States”. The National Center for Biotechnology Information, April 20, 2007
21% of all fatalities in the US are in construction
Model refinement
Predictive Safety – our journey
Vendor relationship
R&D brainstorming
Data Extract, Transform, Load
Algorithm building
POC results!
Investment Predictive Analytics Strategic Council
2016Dec
2017Mar2018
AprMay
Dec Mar2019
Model refinement Production
Future of Predictive – Data alliancesTo learn and explore by doing; To build new models for areas of risk; To understand the operational, social and business impacts;
To chart course through obstacles and bring the benefits of predictive analytics to the AEC industry
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