Precision GuessworkPrecision GuessworkA History of Draft Value in Major League Soccer
By Howard Hamilton
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What is a MLS draft pick worth?
50% never appear in league50% never appear in league50% out of MLS within 4 years50% out of MLS within 4 years
55% don't achieve expected 55% don't achieve expected career value for their teamscareer value for their teams
If you knew what a draft pick is worth, what would you do with it?
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Talk Outline● The Draft in Context● How do we value a
draft pick?● How have draft
values evolved?● Which draft picks
stand out?● Which clubs stand
out in the Draft?
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MLS Player Data Set
Biographical Data
Initial AcquisitionData
FinancialData
(2007-2015)
PerformanceData
Player Name(s)Date of BirthNationality
Default Position(s)
Acquisition YearAcquiring TeamAcquisition Path
Draft Path:Draft Type
RoundSelection NumberGeneration Adidas
(N=1813)
Contract YearContracting TeamCompensation:
BaseGuaranteed
MinutesAppearancesSubstitutions
Yellow/Red CardsField Player-specificGoalkeeper-specific
All players acquired by Major League Soccer between 1996-2016 (N=3250 players)
Data Sources: MLS Players Union (Financial Data), ENB Sports Soccer Player Database (Performance Data), Major League Soccer (Acquisition Data)
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Analysis OverviewNormalization of Draft Position
α=k−1N−1
α :[1,N ]→[0,1]
Survival Analysis
S(t ij)=Pr [T i> j ]Event: Final exit from Major League SoccerCensored Observations: Active MLS players
All Players Drafted Between 1996-2015
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Draft Declining In Influence – But Still Important
Golden Age of the
Drafted Player
Current Reality of the
Drafted Player
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Contribution of Draftees to Goals Scored in MLS
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Contribution of Draftees to Goal Assists in MLS
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Contribution of Draftees to Clean Sheets in MLS
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Draft Mortality
48% of draftees never appear!
Year 3 or Bust!
What percentage of draftees never appear in MLS?
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Draft Mortality of MLS Clubs
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Draft Classes Have Short Half-Lives
Median tenure of MLS draft class: 3.68 years
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Club Draft Classes' Are Even Shorter!
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Draft Position Explains Expected Tenure
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Only Early Draft Picks Can Expect 100-Game MLS Careers
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Given this environment for drafted players,what is a draft pick worth?
40% of all players40% of all players20% of incoming players20% of incoming players50% never play in league50% never play in league
3.5 years with drafting team3.5 years with drafting team
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Valuing MLS Draft Picks
Player Value Expression Player Value Scope
Time Horizon
Minutes
Minutes + goals + assists(Field players)
Minutes + goals allowed + clean sheets(Goalkeepers)
Average
Maximum
Career
Cumulative to previous year
Up to N years before previous year
V=√ ( MMmax
)2
+( GGmax
)2
+( AAmax
)2
3, field players
V=√ ( MMmax
)2
+(1− GA
GA ,max)2
+( SSmax
)2
3, goalkeepers
All College/SuperDraft Selections Between 1997-2013
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Draft Pick Valuation ModelsTraining Data
Career value of drafted playerCareer value of drafted player up to current year
Cumulative value of drafted player while playing for drafting club up to current year
Omniscient Model
Present Model
Club Model
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Evaluating MLS Draft Picks● Create draft value curve by local regression → V()● Value differential: difference between expected and actual
career values
R= Δ eα ,Δ>0Δ e1−α ,Δ<0
Δ=∑ V p−V (α)
Draft Performance Rating
Value Differential Scaled by Draft Position
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Draft Pick Value ModelOmniscient, Infinite Horizon
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Draft Pick Value ModelOmniscient, Limited Horizon
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2009 Draft Pick Value ModelCurrent, Limited Horizon
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2009 MLS SuperDraft Value CardPick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value
1 100 16 34.7 31 31.9 46 14.9
2 94.5 17 33.2 32 31.1 47 13.8
3 89.1 18 32.3 33 30.0 48 12.7
4 83.8 19 31.8 34 28.7 49 11.6
5 81.2 20 31.6 35 27.9 50 10.9
6 75.2 21 31.4 36 26.3 51 9.7
7 71.7 22 31.4 37 25.4 52 9.0
8 66.5 23 31.4 38 24.0 53 7.9
9 61.4 24 31.7 39 22.6 54 6.8
10 58.3 25 31.9 40 21.8 55 6.1
11 52.9 26 32.3 41 20.4 56 4.8
12 50.0 27 32.6 42 19.7 57 4.3
13 45.5 28 32.8 43 18.5 58 3.3
14 41.0 29 32.8 44 17.3 59 2.2
15 36.9 30 32.5 45 16.1 60 1.1
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2013 Draft Pick Value ModelCurrent, Limited Horizon
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2013 MLS SuperDraft Value CardPick Value Pick Value Pick Value Pick Value
1 100 11 20.8 21 0.7 31 0.5
2 91.6 12 14.8 22 0.7 32 0.4
3 83.2 13 10.1 23 0.7 33 0.3
4 75.0 14 7.0 24 0.7 34 0.2
5 66.8 15 4.8 25 0.7 35 0.1
6 58.8 16 3.3 26 0.7 36 0
7 50.9 17 2.3 27 0.7 37 0
8 43.2 18 1.7 28 0.6 38 0
9 35.7 19 1.2 29 0.6
10 28.2 20 0.9 30 0.5
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Relative Draft ValueLack of Time Horizon Overvalues Late Draft Picks
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Expected Draft ValueOmniscient Model Yields Optimistic Estimates
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Expected Draft ValueDrafting Clubs Don't See Most of Drafted Player Value
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Early Draft Picks' Competition: Other Domestic Signings
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Expected Salary Cost of SuperDraft Picks
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Draft Performance Extremes:Present Draft Valuation Model
Year Pick Player Position Club1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy
2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City
2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire
2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Position Club1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes
2005 1 Nik Besagno M Real Salt Lake
1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny
2011 1 Omar Salgado F Vancouver Whitecaps
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
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Draft Performance Extremes:Club Draft Valuation Model
Year Pick Player Position Club1997 29 Kevin Hartman GK LA Galaxy
2002 50 Davy Arnaud F Sporting Kansas City
2005 35 Gonzalo Segares D Chicago Fire
2010 51 Sean Johnson GK Chicago Fire
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Position Club1998 3 Ben Parry D San Jose Earthquakes
2001 1 Chris Carrieri F San Jose Earthquakes
1997 2 Mike Fisher M Tampa Bay Mutiny
1999 1 Jason Moore M DC United
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
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Draft Performance Extremes:Defenders (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club2004 60 Jeff Parke New York Red Bulls
1998 30 Joe Franchino LA Galaxy
2005 35 Gonzalo Segares Chicago Fire
1998 8 Mike Petke MetroStars
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club1998 3 Ben Parry San Jose Earthquakes
2000 9 John Wilson Sporting Kansas City
1999 10 Tony Soto LA Galaxy
1999 9 Matt Chulis Columbus Crew
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
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Draft Performance Extremes:Forwards (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club2002 50 Davy Arnaud Sporting Kansas City
1998 9 Jeff Cunningham Columbus Crew
2004 53 Alan Gordon LA Galaxy
2005 29 Chris Rolfe Chicago Fire
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club2011 1 Omar Salgado Vancouver Whitecaps
1999 7 John Wolyniec MetroStars
1999 8 Andrew Mittendorf Colorado Rapids
2007 8 Jerson Monteiro Chicago Fire
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
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Draft Performance Extremes:Goalkeepers (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club1997 29 Kevin Hartman LA Galaxy
1998 26 Matt Reis LA Galaxy
2000 35 Nick Rimando Miami Fusion FC
2002 23 Jon Busch Columbus Crew
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club2008 8 Josh Lambo FC Dallas
2008 12 Dominic Cervi Chicago Fire
2002 22 Bryheem Hancock LA Galaxy
2002 24 Mike McGinty DC United
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
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Draft Performance Extremes:Midfielders (Present Model)
Year Pick Player Club2003 43 Jack Jewsbury Sporting Kansas City
1998 14 Carey Talley DC United
1998 13 Pablo Mastroeni Miami Fusion FC
2002 3 Brad Davis MetroStars
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
Year Pick Player Club2005 1 Nik Besagno Real Salt Lake
1997 2 Mike Fisher Tampa Bay Mutiny
2007 6 Nico Colaluca Colorado Rapids
2008 5 Ciaran O'Brien Colorado Rapids
Draft Busts
Draft Gems
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Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees Who Have Productive MLS Careers?
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
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Which MLS Clubs Find Draftees That Benefit Them?
MLS College Draft/SuperDraft, 1997-2013
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Middle Draft Selections Hard to Get Right
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An endangered species in a crowded player acquisition environment.
Low lifetime costsLow lifetime costs
Long time to high valueLong time to high valueLow value after Round 1Low value after Round 1
The MLS Draft
Passing on late rounds of MLS SuperDraft becomes understandable.
Thank You!Thank You!Soccermetrics Research, LLC
www.soccermetrics.net@soccermetrics
Howard H. Hamilton, Ph.D.
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