Post-Crisis Leadership Certificate
Segment 7: Re-Energizing Sales
Rob Hammond D.B.A. Jim Stikeleather D.B.A.
What we will cover this evening
Re-energizing sales
• When to shift your messaging
• How to identify customers that will and can buy
• Tools you can use to plan for the next disruption
By teaching managers to look through the lens of the theory into
the future you can actually see the future very clearly. Clay Christensen
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Crisis Disruptions Problems Opportunitiesand they happen all the time
Local Construction
Changes Traffic PatternPartner Separation
Life ChangesGraduation
Marriage
Birth of Child
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After a Crisis • Introductions
• How we deal with a crisis
• 3 phases of market communication after a crisis
• How do you find new customers and revenue after a crisis
• Old thinking will kill you
• Macro market trends driving innovation and solutions
• Case study
• Go dos
Crises happen all the time
Crises disrupt markets and create problems for people and companies
Customer problems are Sales Opportunities
Each crisis is unique but follows a similar path
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Importance and Appropriateness of Theory
“He who loves practice without theory is like the sailor who boards ship without a rudder
and compass and never knows where he may cast.” -Leonardo da Vinci
You should understand the fundamentals, so that you can start. Then, when you hit a roadblock, you can
figure out what you need to learn and learn it just-in-time. I find this a very efficient way of learning and
practicing simultaneously. Theory also helps you understand what is unique this time.
In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not. -Albert Einstein
Experience without theory is blind, but theory without experience is mere intellectual play.
-Immanuel Kant
Theory and practice sometimes clash. And when that happens, theory loses. Every single
time. -Linus Torvalds
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Concepts=>Principles=>Frameworks=>Models=>Methodologies=>Methods
Taleb: this isn’t a black swan
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
https://www.pasqualecirillo.eu/
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Butterfly Effect of all those systems interacting via their participants
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In a crisis there is a loss: wellbeing
Cleverism.com
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Satir Change Model: Managing your expectations
Graphic from CIOpages.com
Tolerance and
Learning
Thomas Edison - I didn't
fail. I just found 2,000
ways not to make a
lightbulb; I only needed
to find one way to make
it work.
Disappointment Excitement
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Each has its own (and
aggregated) path though the
stages and transitions
Data is only available about the past. When we teach
people, they should be data driven and fact based and
analytical as they look into the future in many ways, we
condemn them to take action when the game is over.
The only way to look into the future – there’s no data, so
you have to have a good theory.
By teaching managers to look through the lens of the theory
into the future you can actually see the future very clearly. I
think that is what the theory of disruption has done.
Clay Christensen, Theory of Disruptive Innovation
Trying to guess when things will happen is fools' errand. Instead plan messaging
and sales actions on objective events. Timing is market driven.
COPYRIGHT © 2020
BY ROB HAMMOND
Fear for
Safety
Gov’t
Lockdown
Market
Sell-off
High
Volume
TestingMany
More
CasesPopulation
Recognizes
They Know Few
Sick People
Population Exhausted
with Being Home
Layoff
News Gov’t
Stimulus
Promising
Therapies / Solutions
Market
Bottom
s
Lockdown
Extension
Phas
e 3
“N
ew
Norm
al”
Mortality Found
To Be Lower
Market Sell-off
Lines of Credit
Open for SMB
Phase 1 Phase 2
• Length of “bowl” and shape of recovery is dependent on how rough things get:
therapies, mortality rate, duration.
• Items will shift order and relative level.
• Forced experiences will create “New Normal” changes in demand curves for industries.
• Brands will move through phases at different rates based on market strength.
• The universal truth – solve a customer’s known problem or teach the customer about
their unrecognized problem and how you solve it.
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Three Phases of Post Crisis Communication
Safety and Security
• Priority focus moves from Self / Family to Employees to Customers
• Don’t Sell: Create Empathy
• Help solve problems regardless of whether related to your product
Innovation
• Forced Experiences cause Brands to Innovate
• Teach your customers and prospects, be a market sensor
• Invest in marketing: Phase 2 Innovations create structure for New Normal market share
New Normal
• Some Phase 2 Innovations stick establishing new structure for market share (telemedicine)
• Some markets, industries, people are unaffected by a crisis (government spending) others can see massive demand increase (grocery, cleaning products)
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-one-chart-makes-the-case-that-the-worst-is-over-for-the-stock-market-and-the-virus-has-peaked-2020-04-28?reflink=mw_share_email
https://civileats.com/2020/04/22/restaurants-are-
transforming-into-grocery-stores-to-survive-the-pandemic/
• The trend has touched small restaurants, restaurant groups
with multiple outlets, and national chains. Panera and
Subway have launched their own grocery stores. Also,
• Steakhouses are being reinvented as butcher shops
• Upscale eateries are hosting virtual cocktail classes
• Chefs are creating DIY meal kits
“I think all the pantry loading behavior has slowed down,” Niccol said, referencing the grocery hoarding that occurred in the first few weeks of the pandemic. “I think there's fatigue in cooking. Combine that with the fact that tax refunds and stimulus money are starting to get in the hands of people.”
https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/quarterly-digital-sales-chipotle-mexican-grill-reach-record-
372-million
We are in Phase 2 of a post disruption sales
and marketing strategy
• People are exhausted with being home
• Fear is lessening
• Brands are innovating and exploring new business models
Copyright © 2020 by Rob Hammond
Crisis Market Communication
• Phase 1
• Help solve problems even if not related to brand or product
• We are here and will be here
• Don’t sell – tone deaf
• Communicate with empathy
• Phase 2
• Teach Customers and Prospects
• Solve problems
• Buyer Persona and customer needs are different – evolve messaging else tone deaf
• Invest in marketing
• Phase 3
• Teach lagging customers
• Solve problems
• Messaging is different than pre-crisis, shifted demand curves, accelerated adoption
Not all brands and people are affected
3 Phases of Communication: Safety / Security, Innovation, New Normal
Long Term Market Share is established with innovations in Phase 2
Strongest brands win due to ability to invest when others are pulling back
Objective market changes dictate phases. Don’t guess or let emotion guide.
Customer needs and buyer personas change during phases and after crisis
Amy Radin
https://www.amyradin.com/
• American Express
• The Dime Savings Bank of New York
• Citi
• ETRADE Financial
• AXA
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Crises disrupt markets: Solve a known problem or teach about a new problem
• Companies have different problems
• People loose jobs. Priorities change.
• Old messages (value propositions, presentations, templates, campaigns) often won’t work on new customers and different problems
• Risk being perceived as tone deaf - waste resources and time
• Forced experiences create new problems that need solutions
• Brands (and likely different people) are seeking information, ideas, and solutions to new problems
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Innovation Diffusion helps identify who to contact, when, and what to say
• Simon Sinek – “People don’t buy what you do; they buy why you do it”
• Geoffrey Moore detailed the gap between Early Adopters and mass market in Crossing the Chasm
• Clay Christensen describes the Theory of Disruption in The Innovator’s Dilemma
Copyright © 2019 by RH Insights LLC 21
Innovation Diffusion• Innovation Diffusion has been widely studied.
The leader of the theory is Rogers.
• Innovation Diffusion appears to be part of human nature. It has been observed across regions incorporating tangible and intelligible items.
• Research shows there is no “gap” between the segments. These are continuous variables.
• My own research and book heavily leverages innovation diffusion theory as well.
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Innovators and Early Adopters
• Interest in new ideas leads them out of a local circle of peer network into more cosmopolite social relationships – clique of innovators
• Control over substantial financial resources
• Ability to understand and apply complex technical knowledge is also needed
• Cope with high degree of uncertainty
• Highest degree of opinion leadership in most systems.
• Potential adopters look to early adopters for advice and information.
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Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Early Majority, Late Majority, Laggards
• Early Majority wait for other to try it first.
• Late Majority has relatively scarce resources so most of the uncertainty about a new idea must be removed before they feel safe to adopt. Adoption may not occur until an economic necessity and increasing peer pressure.
• Laggards reference is the past – perhaps system blame From Avoiding the Carnage – A Guidebook through Sales Transformation
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Innovation Diffusion
• Five characteristics of predicting adoption• Relative Advantage, Compatibility, Complexity,
Trialability, Observability
• Be aware of Individual Blame Bias, Adoption Bias versus System Blame
• It is in everyone’s best interest except to the subject to adopt
• “If the shoe doesn’t fit then there is something wrong with your foot”
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
They are Wicked Problems...
• There is no “solution” or “one right answer”, only
approaches to address
• The goal is to make some part better without
making other parts even worse
• The approaches depend upon how the problem is
framed and vice versa (the approach determines
the problem definition)
• Stakeholders have radically different world views
and states, and therefore different frames for
understanding the problem
• While originally conceived for understanding
social policy and planning, wicked problems are
everywhere, especially in business
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
They are Wicked Problems...
• There is no “solution” or “one right answer”, only
approaches to address
• The goal is to make some part better without
making other parts even worse
• The approaches depend upon how the problem is
framed and vice versa (the approach determines
the problem definition)
• Stakeholders have radically different world views
and states, and therefore different frames for
understanding the problem
• While originally conceived for understanding
social policy and planning, wicked problems are
everywhere, especially in business
Getting There: The Big Picture• Not trivial nor single reads
• Can skip “The Bed of Procrustes”
• In theory life is like theory, but it is not — so aim to be mostly right than precisely wrong
• Build a world view, then adapt to circumstances
• Acerbic
Getting a Little Closer to the Ground• 4 capabilities model developed at MIT
Sloan
• Dr. Deborah Ancona
• Dr. Thomas Malone
• Dr. Wanda Orlikowski
• Dr. Peter Senge
• Based on Dr. Brian Arthur’s work in the areas of complexity theory, technology, and financial markets.
Foresight: Thinking About the Future• “Prediction is very difficult, especially
about the future.” ― Niels Bohr
• “All models are wrong, but some are useful”. ― George E. P. Box
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Voros, J. (2017). Big History and Anticipation: using big history as a
framework for global foresight. Handbook of anticipation: Theoretical
and applied aspects of the use of future in decision making.
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Sensemaking
Life or Death Sensemaking• It may seem “touchy/feely”
• But it has become rigorous and methodical
• It is a foundational skill in the intelligence communities
• Remember, they project COVID-19 ahead of everyone
Pirolli, P., & Card, S. (2005, May). The sensemaking process and leverage
points for analyst technology as identified through cognitive task analysis. In
Proceedings of international conference on intelligence analysis (Vol. 5, pp. 2-4).
Where do we look for Innovations?
• Forced experiences create problems businesses seek to solve for their customers
• Solutions are derived from mega trends that are the current of innovation
• Digital, The Internet, and Mobile were all recent megatrends
• We are entering what is being called the 4th Industrial Revolution
What are inputs for sensemaking?
Where are the next likely disruptions coming from?
What are the next disruptive technologies?
What is the 4th
Industrial RevolutionPartly it is about technologies and how they are used:
• AI
• Blockchain
• Computational Technologies
• Virtual Reality
• Biotechnology
• Robotics
• 3D Printing
• Material Science
• Internet of Things
• Energy Capture & Storage
SiteZeus Interview Take-aways
• Ensured available cash
• Know competitive differentiation
• Knew customer personas
• Identified new customer problems
• Segmented for who could buy
• Made tough choices on people and product portfolio
• Invested in people
• Integrated sales and marketing into seamless growth engine
Old model was supporting restaurant new site selection
Customer contact was Chief Development Officer
Both the customer problem and customer disappeared overnight
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We must manage the right things
• Typically we plan revenue as the goal
• Thought leaders are now looking at behaviors that drive revenue and managing the behaviors
• Reality is that revenue is the result of a complex system
• Systems theory teaches that there are 12 points of leverage in system
• Metrics are the least effective point of leverage and the most effective leverage comes from a transcendent paradigm
Behaviors
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Adapted from Meadows
Autonomous Leverage Human Leverage
Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Systems Thinking: Theory + Practice
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A transcendent paradigm is the most effective leverage point and is grounded in Beliefs
• And what drives behaviors? Beliefs
• How do you affect beliefs? Teach and Inspire
• What do you do with behaviors? Coach
• What can we do with metrics? Inspect and Analyze
• Where does it all start? People
Behaviors
Beliefs
Flip the pyramid and revenue is the result
Metrics
43Leadership Post-Crisis Certificate Program
Transformation begins with people
1. Solve HR Issues, then
2. Beliefs drive Behaviors, and
3. Behaviors create Metrics (Results)
4. All we can do is inspect and analyze revenue and leading indicators
5. Changing the system means Coaching, Inspiring, and Teaching your team
Willing Workers
Teach Individual Filters and Bias
Inspire
Innovation Diffusion
Leading
Indicators
Organizational Climate
Self-Efficacy
Motivation
Results
Coach
Analyze
Inspect
Decreasing
System Leverage
Sales Ready Organization
From Avoiding the Carnage – A Guidebook through Sales Transformation
A typical conversation with a 5-year-old:
• Why....• Then what happens?
• Why......• Then what happens?
• Why....
• Then what happens?
• Why....
• Then what happens?
• ... Ad infinitum
Be like a 5-year-old
If you are not prepared to intelligently have this
conversation now about your ecosystem with all
your stakeholders, you will not be prepared for the
next one nor be taken seriously about this one.
Being A Student of the Game & Industry
https://systemsinnovation.io/
https://waterscenterst.org/
https://www.andyhinesight.com/
https://nonprofitquarterly.org/the-sensemaking-organization-designing-for-complexity/
Transformation begins with people
1. Solve HR Issues
2. Eliminate Barriers in Sales and Marketing
3. Leverage BDRs as a “market sensing” function that enables marketing
4. Make sense of the situation by leveraging theory as a lens of clarity
5. Build pessimistic cash model
6. Rationalize your portfolio: sell to people who can buy
7. Message and pursue based on 3 phases of post-crisis model
8. Invest in marketing during phase 2: establish your solution for new forced experience customer problems
9. Continuously innovate
10. Be a student of the game and industry
Willing Workers
Teach Individual Filters and Bias
Inspire
Innovation Diffusion
Leading
Indicators
Organizational Climate
Self-Efficacy
Motivation
Results
Coach
Analyze
Inspect
Decreasing
System Leverage
Sales Ready Organization
From Avoiding the Carnage – A Guidebook through Sales Transformation
Go Dos
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