POLI100M:Poli-calPsychology
Lecture6:CampaignsTaylorN.Carlson@[email protected]
Announcements• ShortAssignment2isduetoday—anyques-ons?
• MidtermisonTuesday– 11am-12:15pmexam,15minbreak,classresumesat12:30pm
– Mul-plechoice(35),matching(15),shortanswer(3of4)
– SeestudyguideonTritonEd• OfficeHours:Tuesday2:30-4:30inSSB341,orbyappointment
LastTime• Whydoindividualschooseinforma-onsources?
– Generaltrends—trustandconveniencearekey– Percep-onsofbias,hos-lemediaeffect
• Whatroledoesthemediaplayinshapingpublicopinion?– Framing– Priming
• Howdoindividualsprocessinforma-onfromthemedia?– Subjecttocogni-vebiases(e.g.mo-vatedreasoning)
Whatques-onsdoyouhave?
Today:DrivingQues-ons
• Howdocampaignsusepsychologytowinelec-ons?
• Issocialpressureaneffec-vetechniquetoboostturnout?Forwhom?
• Arecampaignadseffec-ve?When,forwhom,whichtype,andwhy?
Today:LearningOutcomes
• Definethefollowingkeyterms:persuasion,turnout,socialpressure,fieldexperiment
• Describehowsocialpressurecanbeusedtoincreaseturnoutandwhenitmightbelesseffec-ve
• Explainwhether(andwhen)campaignadsareeffec-ve
• Evaluatetheeffec-venessofcommoncampaignstrategiesfromapsychologicalperspec-ve
Introduc-ontoCampaigns
Campaigns
• Whatdocampaignsdo?• Withwhichcampaignac-vi-esdoyoucomeintocontactthemost?
CampaignSpendingin2016• Presiden-alcandidates:
– Republican:$638million– Democrats:$794million
• Housecandidates:– Republican:$542million– Democrat:$422million
• Senatecandidates:– Republican:$322million– Democrat:$350million
• $8.3millionspentonCACD49alone
Source:CenterforResponsivePoli-cs
Source:CenterforResponsivePoli-cs
Source:CenterforResponsivePoli-cs
Wheredoesallthemoneygo?
Campaigns:2KeyFunc-ons
1. Mobilize—changingbehavior2. Persuade—changingaitudes
Mobiliza-on
Howdocampaignsmobilize?
• Informa-onalappeals• Consistencytheory• Socialpressure
Howdoweknowwhethercampaignssuccessfullymobilized?
• Fieldexperiments!• Mobiliza-ondependentvariable(DV):turnout
– Publicrecord– Directlyobservable—noself-reportbias
• Randomlyassignindividualstovariousmobiliza-ontreatments(theindependentvariable)andobservewhethertheyturnouttovote
Informa-onalAppeals
• Remindingvotersthatthereisanelec-oncomingup
• Provideinforma-onofhowtoregister,whenandwheretovote,etc.
• Fieldexperimentssuggestthatthiscanhaveamarginaleffectonturnout
ConsistencyTheory
• Remindmewhatthisis.• Howmightthisapplytocampaigns?• Commitmentmechanisms!
CommonConsistencyTechnique
• “FootintheDoor”–askforasmallfavor,thenfollowupwithabiggerfavor– Pledgecards– Campaigndona-ons– Volunteering
SocialPressure
“Doasmostdo,andpeoplewillspeakwellofthee”–ThomasFuller
SocialPressure
• Conformity:achangeinone’sbehaviorduetorealorimaginedinfluenceofothers
• Compliance:changingone’sbehaviorinresponsetoadirectrequest
Conformity
• Notnecessarilyabadthing• Twotypes:
– Informa-onal– Norma-ve
Conformity
Informa(onal• Behaviorofothersprovides
informa-on• Leadstoprivateandpublic
acceptance• Likelywhen:
– Ambiguoussitua-on– Crisissitua-on– Othersareexperts
Norma(ve• Desireforapprovalfrom
others• Leadstopubliccompliance,
butnotprivateacceptance• Likelywhen:
– Unanimity– Groupisimportanttoyou– Collec-vis-cculture
Norma-veConformityExample
• Asch(1952)Experiments
• Inpoli-cs:Carlson&Sesle(2016)
Compliance
• Changingone’sbehaviorinresponsetoadirectrequest
• Otenreliesonsocialnorms(e.g.reciprocity)• Commontechniquesusedtoinducecompliance:
– Doorintheface– Freegit– Baitandswitch– Evenapennywouldhelp– Socialvalida-on
Howdocampaignsusesocialpressure?
• Combina-onofconformityandcompliance• Makevo-ngasocialnorm,suchthatsocialpressureenforcesnorm-compliance
Howcanweboostturnout?
• Gerber&Green(2000)• Modesofcontact
– Mailers– Phonecalls– Canvassing
• Message– Civicduty– Closeelec-on– NeighborhoodSolidarity
CivicDutyTreatment
NeighborhoodSolidarity
“Thereisstrengthinnumbers.Standupandbecounted.Whenpeoplefromourneighborhooddon’tvotewegivepoli-cianstherighttoignoreusandconcentratetheirenergieselsewhere.Butyoucanmakesurethatdoesn’thappen.Byjoiningyourneighborsandvo-ngonelec-onday,you’llsendamessagetoourelectedleaders:thatyoucareandthattheyshouldcareaboutyourconcerns.OnNovember3dVotetoensurethatwearenotignored.Remembertovote.”
Elec-onisCloseTheirfuturestartswithonevote.Yours.Inanelec-on,anythingcanhappen.Thisyearmanyelec-onswillbedecidedbyonlyahandfulofvotes—willyoursbethedecidingvote?Don’tmissyouropportunitytomakeadifference,don’tmissyourchancetomakeanimpactinourelec-ons.OnNovember3dmakesureyourvoteisincluded,becausenoelec-oniseveracertaintyandeveryvotecounts.OnNovember3ddon’tmissyouropportunitytomakeadifference.Remembertovote.”
Results
• Phonecalls:Noimpactonturnout• Mailers:0.6percentagepointincreaseinturnoutpermailing
• Canvassing:9.8percentagepointincreaseinturnout
• Messagedidnothaveasubstan-alimpactonturnout
Adding[more]SocialPressure
• Gerber,Green,&Larimer(2008)• TreatmentGroups:
– Control(nomailer)– CivicDuty– Hawthorne(youarebeingstudied)– Self– Neighbors
Results
• Control:29.7%• CivicDuty:31.5%,1.8percentagepointboost• Hawthorne:32.2%,2.5percentagepointboost• Self:34.5%,4.9percentagepointboost• Neighbors:37.8%,8.1percentagepointboost
SocialPressureMailersinRealCampaigns
• MoveOn.orgCivicAc-on(liberalgroup)sentvotehistorymailersto12millionregisteredvotersinallswingstatesandinmostcompe--vecongressionalelec-onsin2012
• AmericansforLimitedGovernment(conserva-vegroup)sentvotehistorymailersto2millionregisteredvoters
IsVo-ngContagious?
• Yes(Nickerson2008)• Bondetal.(2012)findthatsocialpressureonFacebookcanalsoincreaseturnout!
• Slidesborrowed/adaptedfromJamesFowler
No Message N = 613,096
Message Only
N = 611,044
Social Message N = 60,055,176
Message about user voting appears in news feed
Informational Message
Social Message
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Mobiliza-onandCampaignsSummary
• Campaignsusemanypsychologicaltechniquesfrominforma-onalappeals,consistencytheory,andsocialpsychology(conformityandcompliance)tomobilizevoters
• Themoresocialcampaigncontactis,thebiggertheeffectonturnout
• Explicitsocialpressure,evenfromlesssocialmodes(e.g.mailers),haslargeeffectsonturnout,butthesemethodscanbecontroversial
Ques-ons?
Persuasion
Persuasion
• AitudeChange• Threemaincomponents:
– Communicator:persontryingtopersuade– Communica-on:contentofthemessage– Target:personcommunicatortriestopersuade
Elabora-onLikelihoodModel
• TwoRoutestoPersuasion:– Central– Peripheral
• Aitudechangevariesdependingonmentaleffort,condi-onalon:– Mo-va-on– Ability
PersuasionintheELM
Message
HighMo-va-on
LowMo-va-on
CentralRoute
PeripheralRoute
Las-ngChange
TemporaryChange
Audiencefactors
ProcessingApproach
PersuasionOutcome
Persuasion:Cogni-onandEmo-on
• Iftheaitudeiscogni-velybased,trytochangeitwithra-onalarguments
• Iftheaitudeisaffec-velybased,trytoappealtoemo-ons
• What’stheproblemwithtryingtochangepoli-calaitudes?
CampaignsandPersuasion
• Mostcommonmode:Ads!• Largestpor-onofcampaignbudgets• Threemaintypes:
– Posi-ve– Nega-ve– Contrast
ProcessingNega-veAds
• Peoplepaymoreasen-ontonega-veinforma-onthanposi-veinforma-on– “pleasureislessurgentthanpain”
• Processnega-veinforma-onusingperipheralroute:quick,automa-c,effortless,etc.– Whatdoesthismeanforpersuasion?
Cancampaignadspersuade?• Verylisleevidencethattheydo• Minor,short-livedchangesinlabexperiments• Why?
– Asen-on,noise,peripheralrouteprocessing– Mindsalreadymadeup– Heuris-csandothercogni-vebiasesmakeithardtoaffectvotechoice
• Maybeadsactuallymobilizeinsteadofpersuade?– Focusasen-on– Informa-onseeking– Interest
What’sthedealwithnega-veads?
• Demobiliza-onHypothesis• Mobiliza-onHypothesis
– republicanduty– Candidatethreat– Perceivedclosenessoftheelec-on
SocialPressureandPersuasion
• Broockman&Kalla(2016)• BuildsontechniquesusedbytheLosAngelesLesbian,Gay,Bisexual,andTransgenderCenter– AnalogicPerspec-veTaking– Engagescentralrouteprocessing
• Deeplyheldbeliefs,strongemo-ons
Broockman&KallaProcedure• Unrelatedbaselinesurvey• Knockedonthedoor,iden-fiedtheorganiza-ontheywere
with• Informedvoterstheymightfaceadecisionaboutwhether
torepealtheordinanceprotec-ngtransgenderpeople• Askedvoterstoexplaintheirviews• Showedavideothatpresentedargumentsonbothsides• Definedtransgender• Askediftheyweretransgender• Encouragedanalogicperspec-vetaking• Askedvoterstodescribeifandhowthischangedtheir
opinions• Unrelatedfollowupsurveys
Broockman&KallaResults
• Thoseinthetreatmentgroupweresignificantlymoresuppor-veoflawsprotec-ngtransgenderpeople– Comparedtobaseline– Comparedtothosewhogottheplacebotreatment
• Opinionchangeslastedupto3months
Ques-ons?
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