Pierre Friedlingstein, IPSL/LSCE, France+ contributions from L. Bopp, P. Cadule, C. Jones, S. Piao, and J. Randerson
Process oriented evaluation of coupled climate-carbon cycle models
2.6 – 4.1 °C
2.4 – 5.6 °C
730 – 1000 ppm
C4MIP in IPCC AR4Climate feedback on Carbon Cycle
Climate projections
Friedlingstein., et al, 2006Meehl ., et al, 2007
Atm
osp
her
ic C
O2
dif
fere
nce
(p
pm
)
Ch
ang
e in
Lan
d U
pta
ke (
GtC
)
Surface Temperature Change (K)
C4MIP in CMIP5Multiple constrains from observations
Atmospheric CO2 (trends and var.) Leaf Area Index (Greening)
Ocean Carbon Inventory (trend) Air-Sea CO2 exchange (trends and var.)
C4MIP Umbrella
• Benchmark against 20th century• Constrains on processes driving climate-carbon feedback• Reduced uncertainty on
Climate-carbon cycle gain Compatible emissions Climate projections
I-LAMB
• Positive feedback (larger warming), but large uncertainty in simulated atmospheric CO2.• Essentially driven by uncertainty in carbon cycle response to climate change • At that time, no proper model evaluation
C4MIP modelsAOGCMs
C4MIP models
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