Page 1 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Pakistan Energy Sector and
prospects for business
Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg
15th December 2016
Page 2 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Geographical location of Pakistan
• Federation of 6 provinces and states
• Total area : 881,913 sq-km
• Population: 200 Million 6th in the world
• Electricity Shortfall: 5000 MW
• Un-electrified population 30%
• GDP Growth 4.5%
Page 3 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Energy Situation PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLIES BY SOURCE
Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2015 published by Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP), Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Resources, Government of Pakistan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15
Millions Tonnes of Oil Equivalent (TOE)
Oil LNG Import Gas LPG Coal Hydro, Nuc. & Imp. Renewable Electricity
30.8% 32.5% 34.4% 35.5%
49.5% 48.2% 46.3%
42.6%
0.7%
0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
0.7% 6.6% 6.0%
5.4% 7.0%
13.2% 13.3%
12.8% 12.5%
64.7 64.6 66.85
70.3
0.3%
Page 4 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Energy Situation…cont. ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR
(Excluding fuels consumed in thermal power generation)
Source: Pakistan Energy Year Book 2015 Published by Hydrocarbon Development Institute of Pakistan (HDIP), Ministry of Petroleum &
Natural Resources, Government of Pakistan
Page 5 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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ELECTRICITY INSTALLED CAPACITY BY TYPE PEPCO and KEL (Public and Private)
Source: CPPA, AEDB and NEPRA
* Total Capacity as on 24th October 2016, It is an in house data collection effort **1136 MW capacity of RE, Reference: AEDB (Alternative Energy Development Board)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
RE 50 106 408 1136
Nuclear 462 787 787 787 787 787 1.127
Thermal 14.240 15.753 15.888 15.852 16.963 16.963 16.814
Hydro 6.555 6.627 6.627 6.928 7.097 7.097 7.121
21,257 MW 23,167 MW
23,302 MW
23,617 MW 24,953 MW
25,255 MW 26,197 MW
RE
Nuclear
Thermal
Hydro
Page 6 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Power Demand Forecast
Source: CPPA, AEDB and NEPRA
**1136 MW capacity of RE, Reference: AEDB (Alternative Energy Development Board)
44903
35413
22353
17328
72169
101478
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028
MW
Page 7 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Power Sector of Pakistan…cont.
Electricity Generation Mix Projections
Source: Ministry of Water and Power (MoWP)
Page 8 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Policies and Legal Framework in RE - Sector.
First RE Policy – (Wind, Small Hydro and Solar)
Grid provision is the responsibility of the purchaser
Guaranteed Electricity purchase
Protection against political risk & change in law
Return on investment is between 17%
Feed-in-Tariff for solar PV, wind, small hydro and bagasse based power projects
No Custom Duties and Zero Sales Tax on import of Equipment
No Income Tax / withholding tax / turnover tax
Convertibility of PKR into USD
Approved in 2006 and valid till 2018
Biomass/Bagasse framework was added in 2013
Net-metering Regulations 2015
Allows development of small scale RE distributed generation up to 1 MW from
solar PV and wind energy projects or own consumption
Access is exported to the national grid and receive powet from the grid when
needed
Monthly bill is settled on net-consumption
Other power generation policies – 2013 and 2015
Page 9 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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• Hydropower
Documented potential : More than 60,000 MW including large Hydros (source PPIB,
MoW&P)
Solar PV
Pakistan receives one of the best solar - irradiation in the world
The average solar irradiation is 5-7kWh/m2/day
Wind Power
Total wind power potential : over 300,000 MW (Source NREL-USAID study)
Solar Thermal
The average solar irradiation is 5-7kW/m2/day
It can produce 1000s of MW Solar Concentrated Power (CSP)…exact figure is not yet
documented
• Biomass for Commercial power generation
A potential of about 3000 MW exist for utility scale power generation
(according World Bank ESMAP study-2016
- Other options e.g. Geothermal energy are not yet documented
Renewable Energy Potential in Pakistan
Page 10 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Solar and wind energy maps of Pakistan
Page 11 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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RE- Potential in Off-grid application
According to the World Energy Outlook (2016) statistics 51 Million
people in Pakistan lives without access to electricity and 105
Million people (56% of total population) have traditional use of
biomass for cooking purposes.
32,889 Rural Villages cannot be connected to the grid
technically and economically are not feasible.
Substantial rural population has no access to the grid, and the
population that does have access to the grid is struggling with
power cuts and supply shortages”
Source: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/10/20/news/power-outages-of-up-to-10-hours-imposed-again/
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RE- Projects (operational and in pipeline)
1. Wind Projects
I. Operational 590.5 MW
II. Under Construction 298 MW
III. Pipeline Projects 864 MW
2. Solar PV
I. Operational 400 MW
II. Pipeline Projects 1775.52 MW (LOIs issued by AEDB & DoE Punjab)
3. Biomass/Bagasse
I. Operational 145.4 MW
II. Pipeline projects 387 MW
Source: AEDB
Page 13 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Energy Conservation Potential in Pakistan
• According to the National Energy Conservation Authority (NECA)/ previously
(ENERCON), annual energy savings of up to 25 percent are possible in all
sectors, which equates to approximately $3 billion per year in energy
imports.
• The most suited EE options of all sectors in terms of technological measures
are co-generation, compressor, heat recovery, heat transfer, lights, meters,
motors, power factor, process control measures, and maintenance of steam
distribution system.
• For RE developments, photovoltaic (PV), solar water heater (SWH), and
wind energy are considered to be the most feasible options on the local
industrial scene.
Page 14 Pakistan Energy Sector – An Overview 19/12/2016
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Pakistan Germany Renewable Energy Forum (PGREF)
The Pakistan-German Renewable Energy Forum (PGREF) is a cooperation
initiative between the Governments of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the
Federal Republic of Germany supported by Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ, German International Cooperation) on
behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation & Development
(BMZ).
Objective
The main aim is to create a network between the two countries’ respective
industries, public sectors and innovation networks in the Renewable Energy
(RE) and Energy Efficiency (EE) field.
It is meant to involve and link-up the private sector more than GIZ or the
governments on their own can hope to achieve.
Page 15 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Financial Schemes for Investment in RE
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) announced for the firstRe-
financing Scheme for RE projects in mid-2016
• Projects from 4 kW to 1 MW
@ 2% to Commercial bank and 6% for the developers for 10
years
• Project Financing from 1 MW to 50 MW
@ 2% to Commercial bank and 6% for the developers for 12
years with 2 years construction period.
Page 16 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Benefits of RE and EE for Pakistan
• Development and RE and EE sources ( is not the
question anymore).
• Energy for Economic Growth (Closing the gap
between import and export)
• Energy Security (not depending others for supply)
• Jobs and industrial competitiveness
• Climate change (Reduction in CO2 emission-Global benefit)
and improved investment opportunities in the country
Page 17 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Other mega pipeline projects – Projects
3.75 million tons of LNG would be imported annually from Qatar on a government-to-government basis which would meet
close to 20 per cent energy requirements of Pakistan (agreement signed on 10th Feb’16)
3.2 Bcfd Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline Project (at Planning Stage)
1752 MWp Solar PV Power Projects (at different development stages).
750 MMcfd Iran-Pakistan (IP) gas pipeline project (at planning and implementation stage)
1000 MW Central Asia-South Asia Electricity Transmission Interconnection(CASA-1000) Project (at planning stage)
Study for Master Plan of 6,600 MW Pakistan Power at Gaddani, Balochistan ( at planning stage) – Coal Projects
1320 MW Coal Fired Power Project, Sahiwal (Construction Phase: ref DoE Punjab)
2640 MW Coal Fired Power Projects at Rahim Yar Khan and Muzaffargarh (feasibility study phase, reference DoE Punjab)
Installation of new Coal fired Power Plants having capacity 2x660 MW, at Jamshoro (under construction)
Construction of 132 KV New Substations, Conversion of 66 KV to 132 KV Sub-station and Associated T/Ls, Extension and
Augmentation Sub-projects, (PESCO) source: MoW&P.
Refurbishment and Up-gradation of Generating Units of Mangla Power Station – additional 644 GWh will be generated
financed by (USAID)
4320 MW Installed Capacity Dasu Hydropower Project, expected completion date (March, 2019)
1400 MW Terbella Dam Extension under construction, expected to be completed by Dec. 2017.
940 MW Neelum Jehlum Hydropower Project under construction, expected to be completed by Dec 2017.
Development of 4500 MW – multi purpose Basha Hydropower Project (Planning stage)
Page 18 Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg 19/12/2016
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Potential Business Areas for German Companies
Source: http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2015/10/20/news/power-outages-of-up-to-10-hours-imposed-again/
Technical consulting and support services
• Techno-economic feasibilities • Grid Studies • Developing Tender Documents and Process • O&M Procedures and Protocols incl. Testing and
Commissioning
(
Innovative Technology Applications • HVDC power lines • Smart grid concepts and applications • Smart power meters • Weather forecasting for RE etc.
Equipment and Machinery Supply
• Hydropower Plants (Electromechanical equipment, control devices etc. )
• Wind projects • Solar Projects • Textile Industry (energy efficient machinery) • Power lines etc.
EPC Services • JV in EPC Contract in all fields • Participation of German companies adds value to the
Projects
Page 19 19/12/2016
As a federal enterprise, GIZ supports the German Government in achieving its objectives in the field of international cooperation for sustainable development.
Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
Registered offices, Bonn and Eschborn, Germany
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Project
Regency Heights, Plot 3A/3, G-5 Markaz, Diplomatic Enclave Islamabad 44000 Pakistan T +92 51 8358913 F +92 51 8351103
E [email protected] I www.giz.de
Responsible
Dr. Frank Fecher
Authors
Mohammad Irshad Khan
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Pakistan Business Day in Hamburg
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