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AGRICU!UR" # AI"D $"C!%R Institutional Rural Credi
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectare ong !er (in *illlion Rs
33880 5.22
33675 6.38
34465 7.92
35318 9.8536689 11.50
38538 17.72
38847 21.60
40562 25.20
42489 29.08
43053 35.68
42932 42.89
43934 48.43
44453 59.95
46249 71.8546262 86.70
46128 103.77
47723 116.45
46826 137.42
50808 152.39
51313 181.60
52134 193.13
53432 207.23
54744 225.76
56135 240.37
58035 263.78
58062 282.27
61409 309.11
62271 329.50
65341 338.86
66247 497.24
64183 373.02
66109 452.34
61722 542.24
65176 704.54
66298 862.5967968 1079.88
70493 1324.77
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Rain+all !ractors
Annual ()$ales
92.6 15760
127.8 16575
120.9 18354
151.2 19875124.4 26578
148.0 32765
95.6 33473
167.4 39667
117.8 51428
142.4 58027
92.4 68087
86.6 83301
111.5 63714
119.7 7423892.0 80263
161.4 78232
152.7 77889
160.7 90510
87.7 106250
89.4 117300
165.3 137123
106.8 146800
112.0 146770
134.9 139072
130.9 164075
123.9 191200
130.9 228612
167.0 253276
157.0 256558
141.0 260762
66.4 237189
125.8 215005
77.6 165702
120.5 191677
119.2 247531136.4 290546
100.8 352781
0
,0000
100000
1,0000
200000
2,0000
-00000
-,0000
.00000
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ractors $ales !i)e- $eries
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20
21
22
23
24
25
2627
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0.9837301657
0.9677250389
0.961856864111153.3166737
27
df SS MS F Signicance F
4 82057257404.5 20514314351 164.91073971 4.609582E-016
22 2736722402.12 124396472.82
26 84793979806.7
Coefcients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%
-92626.273001 46697.5545204 -1.98353583930.0599256337 -189471.073660.0370172897 0.2345838161 0.15779984450.8760539299 -0.4494797687
294.1323300095 122.859416171 2.3940560616 0.0256212913 39.337495674
-88.0551489197 85.8173217275 -1.02607663750.3160058733 -266.02938121
3.2065191684 1.332451398 2.406481147 0.0249457985 0.4431840999
Predicted Sales Residuals17159.87881344 -1399.87881343
13598.36420581 2976.63579419
16809.55074061 1544.44925939
17965.69656387 1909.30343613
25088.80507136 1489.19492864
31754.17971301 1010.82028699
38001.78997166 -4528.78997166
39053.35687076 613.64312924
50947.04958908 480.950410923
51361.62377757 6665.37622243
58525.82963601 9561.1703639964293.62155619 19007.3784438
67127.16634198 -3413.16634198
76615.46344559 -2377.46344559
83628.2015444 -3365.2015444
82141.38310296 -3909.38310296
91708.26924443 -13819.2692444
94128.75095159 -3618.75095159
119345.0230143 -13095.0230143
0.00 5. . .
-50000
0
50000
At 1999-2000 Price
At 1
Residuals
0
-50000
0
50000
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIG
GR%$$ AR
Residuals
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129548.3793207 -12248.3793207
129374.5668804 7748.4331196
142589.4605374 4210.53946262
152609.2837108 -5839.28371079
159787.5219785 -20715.5219785
173758.8521277 -9683.85212772
179801.3341958 11398.6658042199214.5970942 29397.4029058
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Upper 95% Lower 90.0% Upper 90.0%
4218.5276559 -172812.71604 -12439.8299590.5235143481 -0.3657969904 0.4398315698
548.92716435 83.164974692 505.09968533
89.919083371 -235.41588015 59.305582309
5.9698542369 0.9185077463 5.4945305906
. .00 10.00 15.00 2 0.00 25.00 3 0.00
(Rs Crore) Residual Plot
999-2000 Prices (Rs Crore)
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 2
-50000
0
50000
ong !er (in *illlion Rs) Resid
ong !er (in *illlion Rs)
Residuals
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
-50000
0
50000
Annual () Residual
Annual ()
Residuals
5 10 15 20 25 30
!I%&('000 ectares) Residual Plot
"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares)
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5.00 30.00
ual Plot
25.0 30.0
lot
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AGRICU!UR" # AI"D $"C!%R Institutional Rural Credi
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectare ong !er (in *illlion Rs
33880 5.22
33675 6.38
34465 7.92
35318 9.8536689 11.50
38538 17.72
38847 21.60
40562 25.20
42489 29.08
43053 35.68
42932 42.89
43934 48.43
44453 59.95
46249 71.85
46262 86.7046128 103.77
47723 116.45
46826 137.42
50808 152.39
51313 181.60
52134 193.13
53432 207.23
54744 225.76
56135 240.37
58035 263.7858062 282.27
61409 309.11
62271 329.50
65341 338.86
66247 497.24
64183 373.02
66109 452.34
61722 542.24
65176 704.54
66298 862.59
67968 1079.8870493 1324.77
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Correlation Coecient
0.83021
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$U//ARY %U!PU!
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9828968358
R Square 0.9660861898
Adjusted R Square 0.963260039Standard Errr 10946.24542524
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df
Re&ressin 2
Residual 24
'tal 26
Coecients
(nter)ept -106273.726354ong !er Institutional Rural Credit (in *illlion R294.3795488129
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares) 3.4921507194
RES(*+A, !+'+'
Observation Predicted Sales
1 13577.00126465
2 13202.59064383 16414.7342173
4 19961.69131017
5 25235.15620202
6 33523.18367582
7 35744.45089751
8 42793.25575702
9 50664.82284271
10 54577.30087063
11 56277.22718052
12 61407.22490179
13 66610.9035274914 76385.92285042
15 80802.85710964
16 85359.96781147
17 94662.68088788
18 97703.36083118
19 116015.9668416
20 126378.3295757
21 132639.5815142
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22 141323.1447862
23 151359.6995696
24 160518.1664284
25 174044.678033
26 179582.04396
27 199172.0565093
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SS MS F Signicance F
81918292872.8 4.1E010 341.83815453 2.314830E-018
2875686933.83 1.2E008
84793979806.7
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%$!
38324.6718018 -2.772985 0.010571048 -185371.96136 -27175.491347 -171842.7205683.6727658926 3.518224 0.0017611124 121.68744764 467.07164999 151.22531307
1.0215742673 3.418401 0.0022532754 1.3837250584 5.6005763804 1.7443576121
Residuals cter sales -102343 5 29.467(ong te
2182.99873535
3372.40935621939.2657827
-86.6913101649
1342.84379798
-758.183675817
-2271.45089751
-3126.25575702
763.177157286
3449.69912937
11809.7728195
21893.7750982
-2896.90352749-2147.92285042
-539.85710964
-7127.96781147
-16773.6808879
-7193.36083118
-9765.96684159
-9078.32957571
4483.41848584
/r te M,R analsis e a#e "ser#ed tat ut te ur ptentialparaeters nl t a)trs )uld satisa)tril eplain 'ra)trs sales.
'ese are (nstitutinal Rural redit Area under irri&atin.
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
-50000
0
50000
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares) Resi
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares)
Residuals
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5476.85521379
-4589.69956958
-21446.1664284
-9969.67803302
11617.95604
29439.9434907
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"##er 9$%$!
-40704.73215437.53378455
5.2399438267
r institutional rural credit)5 4.97(Gross Area Under Irrigati
0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00
-50000
0
50000
ong !er (in *illlion Rs) Residual Plot
ong !er (in *illlion Rs)
Residuals
ual Plot
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$U//ARY %U!PU!
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9744607451
R Square 0.9495737438
Adjusted R Square 0.9475566935Standard Errr 13077.98601013
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df
Re&ressin 1
Residual 25
'tal 26
Coecients
(nter)ept 24288.80750722,n& 'er (nsitutinal Rural redit :in "illlin Rs; 570.3413798686
RES(*+A, !+'+'
Observation Predicted Sales
1 27265.98951014
2 27927.58551079
3 28805.911235784 29906.67009893
5 30847.73337571
6 34395.2567585
7 36608.18131239
8 38661.41027991
9 40874.3348338
10 44638.58794094
11 48750.74928979
12 51910.44053426
13 58480.77323035
14 65267.8356507915 73737.40514184
16 83473.13249619
17 90705.06119293
18 102665.1199288
19 111203.1303854
20 127862.8020914
21 134438.8382013
22 142480.6516574
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23 153049.0774264
24 161381.7649863
25 174733.456689
26 185279.0688027
27 200587.0314384
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SS MS F Signicance F
80518136854.6 80518136855 470.77346945 9.822514E-018
4275842952.03171033718.08
84793979806.7
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9!
3777.4018228 6.430030123 9.85544E-007 16509.102824 32068.51219126.286265612721.697314798 9.82251E-018 516.20380243 624.47895731
Residuals
-11505.9895101
-11352.5855108
-10451.9112358-10031.6700989
-4269.73337571
-1630.2567585
-3135.18131239
1005.58972009
10553.6651662
13388.4120591
19336.2507102
31390.5594657
5233.22676965
8970.164349216525.59485816
-5241.13249619
-12816.0611929
-12155.1199288
-4953.13038541
-10562.8020914
2684.16179875
4319.3483426
!n Rurunnin& re&&ressin en e drp te a)tr-
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-6279.07742637
-22309.7649862
-10658.456689
5920.93119725
28024.9685616
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Lower 9$%$! "##er 9$%$!
17836.473482 30741.141532525.44073811 615.24202162
rea under irri&atin= Adjusted R-squareain "t te a)trs.
0 200 250 300 350
s) Residual Plot
in *illlion Rs)
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$U//ARY %U!PU!
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9739585625
R Square 0.9485952815
Adjusted R Square 0.9465390928Standard Errr 13204.25788878
!"ser#atins 27
A$!%A
df
Re&ressin 1
Residual 25
'tal 26
Coecients
(nter)ept -233739.196321
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23 147268.1589985
24 156949.2424277
25 170172.8646531
26 170360.7792847
27 193656.5033385
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SS MS F Signicance F
80435169146.8 80435169147 461.33667773 1.249561E-017
4358810659.84 174352426.39
84793979806.7
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 9! "##er 9! Lower 9$%$!
15074.3395837 -15.505766937 2.47372E-014 -264785.37985 -202693 -259488.290210.3240319549 21.478749445 1.24956E-017 6.2924448678 7.627157 6.4063089812
Residuals
13701.1326386
15942.8918787
12223.64895347807.93855431
4969.05114852
-1712.62121714
-3155.19977905
-8897.25878776
-10547.7956448
-7874.12350535
3028.01243637
11268.2916628
-11930.8451451
-13906.6480487-7972.12546391
-9070.51210697
-20514.3949751
-1650.4533245
-13624.3815884
-6089.08117992
8019.92205847
8663.10013819
!n Rurunnin& re&&ressin en e drp te a)tr- =,n& ter (nstitutisquare ass drpped r te )ase en e retain "t t
30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 55000
-50000
0
50000
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectar
GR%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ecta
Residuals
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-498.158998502
-17877.2424277
-6097.8646531
20839.2207153
34955.4966615
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"##er 9$%$!
-207990.102437.5132933613
nal redit= Adjusted R-e a)trs.
60000 65000
s) Residual Plot
es)
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Sin)e Adjusted R-square a
!racter sales -10234
Institutional Rural Credit
Year ong !er (in *illlion Rs)
1970-71 5.221971-72 6.38
1972-73 7.92
1973-74 9.85
1974-75 11.50
1975-76 17.72
1976-77 21.60
1977-78 25.20
1978-79 29.08
1979-80 35.68
1980-81 42.891981-82 48.43
1982-83 59.95
1983-84 71.85
1984-85 86.70
1985-86 103.77
1986-87 116.45
1987-88 137.42
1988-89 152.39
1989-90 181.60
1990-91 193.13
1991-92 207.23
1992-93 225.76
1993-94 240.37
1994-95 263.78
1995-96 282.27
1996-97 309.11
1993-96 329.50
1996-99 338.86
1999-00 497.24
2000-01 373.02
2001-02 452.342002-0 542.24
200-0. 704.54
200.-0, 862.59
200,-0 1079.88
200-03 1324.77
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s drpped in "t te )ases en e run re&ressin it nl ne a)tr t
5 29.467(ong ter institutional rural credit)5 4.97(Gross Are
AGRICU!UR" # AI"D $"C!%R
R%$$ AR"A U&D"R IRRIGA!I%&('000 ectares
33880 1576033675 16575
34465 18354
35318 19875
36689 26578
38538 32765
38847 33473
40562 39667
42489 51428
43053 58027
42932 6808743934 83301
44453 63714
46249 74238
46262 80263
46128 78232
47723 77889
46826 90510
50808 106250
51313 117300
52134 137123
53432 146800
54744 146770
56135 139072
58035 164075
58062 191200
61409 228612
62271 2,23
65341 2,,,6
66247 2032
64183 23169
66109 21,00,61722 1,302
65176 19133
66298 2.3,1
67968 290,.
70493 ,2361
!ractors Actual$ales
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erer n retainin& "t tese a)trs equatin is
a Under Irrigation)
ractors Forcasted $ale
"rror
"8-A " ":A /AP"
13504.1336 ,406213130.1644
16340.6096
19885.733
25156.25
33440.3036
35660.908
42706.026
50573.4504
54484.7184
56184.908261312.7534
66515.321
76286.483
80703.396
85260.8026
94560.091
97602.7096
115906.7582
126268.048
132527.5394
141208.3174
151242.0588
160397.5406
173919.9764
179457.2926
199040.118409006
2060,0439.,0222 45225 45225.21 0.178561
221,16463393 35039 35039.12 0.136574
2310410,1,0022 -10544 10544.11 0.040436
223,42,,,6 9656 9655.764 0.040709
2,3034,06223 -42603 42602.51 0.198147263040,6130 -103058 103058.1 0.621948
26,94220313296 -136916 136916.2 0.714307
3904..919,.33 -131505 131505.4 0.531269
..66294,.93.62 -158284 158283.5 0.54478
,2932423319,,, -176951 176951.3 0.50159
0
100000
200000
-00000
.00000
,00000
00000
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olun " Colun F
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