7/28/2019 On the Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding to Climate Change on the Basis of Equity
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Donald Brown
OntheExtraordinaryUrgencyofNationsRespondingToClimateChangeonthe
BasisofEquity.
This article seeks to explain in understandable terms why nations must not only
aggressively respond to climate change but respond at levels required of them by
equity if the world is going to have any hope of avoiding dangerous climate change.
And so, this article seeks to help citizens around the world understand why their
nations must create climate change policies consistent with their equitableobligations and that if their nations fail to respond on the basis of equity, there is vey
little hope of an adequate global solution emerging that has any potential of avoiding
catastrophic climate change.
Once again there has been some renewed interest in responding to climate change
this week in response to the announcement by the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that carbon dioxide (CO2) atmospheric
concentrations have reached 400 ppm (parts per million). This concentration of CO2
is not only higher than experienced in the last 3 million years of Earth’s history
(Kunzig, 2013), it is additional evidence that the world is rapidly running out of time to
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7/28/2019 On the Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding to Climate Change on the Basis of Equity
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prevent dangerous climate change. NOAA posted on its website Wednesday night,
May 9, that the daily average for CO2 was 400.03 ppm. (Kunzig, 2013) The last
time the concentration of the CO2 reached this mark, horses and camels lived in the
high Arctic and seas were at least 30 feet higher. (Kunzig, 2013) This sea level rise
would inundate major cities around the world and cause harm to hundreds of millions
around the world when temperatures finally responded to these elevated greenhouse
gas (ghg) atmospheric concentrations.
Although this story made it to the front page of the New York Times, (see Schuetze
2013), the US press continues to fail to educate American citizens fully about the
seriousness of the problem that the world is facing particularly in regard to the urgent
need of nations to take immediate steps to reduce their emissions to their fair share
of safe global ghg emissions. Ethicsandclimate.org has previously examined the
failure of the US press to communicate to American people the importance of the
equity issue in formulating US policy. (See, The US Media’s Grave Failure To
Communicate The Significance of Understanding Climate Change as A Civilization
Challenging Ethical Issue.Yet, as we will explain, in light of the rapidly decreasing
amount of time remaining for the world to prevent dangerous climate change, there is
now more than ever a need to increase political support at the national level around
the world for the adoption of policies on climate change that reflect each nation’s fair
share of safe global emissions.
When almost all nations around
the world agreed to the 1992
United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC), they promised to
adopt policies and measures to
limit warming based upon
“equity” to prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with
the climate system. (UNFCCC,Art. 3) Up until very recently it was possible for nations to ignore that they had a
responsibility to reduce their ghg emissions to levels based upon “equity.” And so
many, if not most, nations have been entering international climate negotiations as if
they need only look to their national economic interest to determine what ghg
emissions reductions commitments they need to make under the UNFCCC.
However, now that the world is running out of time to prevent dangerous climate
change, the urgent need of nations to reduce their emissions to levels required of
them on the basis of equity and basic fairness is now obvious and undeniable. This
was not the case only a few years ago. For instance, just three years ago it was
possible for the United States to ignore what was required of it as a matter of basic
fairness because nations were happy when the United States made any commitmentto reduce its ghg emissions having refused to do so from the early 1990s through
2010. Any US commitment was viewed as a positive step. And so, when President
Obama made a voluntary commitment in 2010 in Copenhagen to reduce US
emissions by 17% below 2005 levels by 2020, it was widely celebrated throughout
the international community even though most observers knew this commitment was
far short of what justice required of the United States. Yet just two years later in
Qatar, the same US commitment was almost universally condemned on justice
grounds. (See: Qatar: Bumping Up Against Climate Change Limitations On Human
Activities Makes Ethical and J ustice Issues Unavoidable)
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The importance of each government entity’s responsibility to limit their emissions to
their fair share of safe global emissions has become undeniably obvious to most
observers of international climate negotiations now that it has become clear to all
that there is precious little time for the global community to avoid dangerous climate
change. The central importance of the need to get nations to respond to climate
change on the basis of “equity” becomes very obvious once a number of scientific
aspects of climate change are fully understood. However, too few people understand
these scientific aspects of climate change and the press is failing to educate citizens
about these issues.
To
fully understand the importance of national responses on the basis of “equity” it is
necessary to understand some features of climate change that make it unlike any
other environmental problem facing the world. The atmosphere is like a bathtub, it
has limited volume. Nations have been filling up the atmospheric bathtub since the
beginning of the industrial revolution in the late 1790s. Because CO2 is long-lived inthe atmosphere, the bathtub continues to fill up with CO2 even if rates of CO2
emissions slow down somewhat unless all ghg emissions are reduced to the rate at
which the Earth’s natural carbon cycle can remove CO2, an amount which is less
than 20% of existing emissions levels. Decreasing ghg emissions does not prevent
global atmospheric concentrations from increasing unless they are cut back globally
by huge amounts. And so to prevent dangerous climate change nations have to do
much more than cut back on the ghg emissions levels that they are entering the
atmosphere, they have to cooperate to prevent the level in the bath tub from
reaching levels that will cause dangerous climate change. As we shall see, this is a
level that the world is fast approaching. Furthermore because CO2 is well mixed in
the atmosphere it makes no difference where on Earth the ghgs come from, theatmospheric concentrations of ghg continue to rise without regard to location of the
source of emissions.
What makes the current climate change threat so ominous is that the levels of CO2
that have been building up for over 200 years are quickly approaching levels that
could trigger dangerous climate change as emissions are increasing in many parts
of the world.
In our experience, most Americans don’t understand the scale of the climate change
facing the world. In Copenhagen in 2010 the international community agreed to set
as a goal warming limit of 2°C not withstanding there are some scientific evidence to
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An Ethical Analysis of Obama’s ClimateSpeech, the Adverse Political Reactionto It, and the Media Response.
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believe that the warming limit should be lower at 1.5 °C. The 2°C warming limit was
chosen because there is strong scientific evidence that warming above 2°C could
trigger rapid nonlinear climate change thereby threatening hundreds of millions of
people around the world and the ecological systems on which they depend. Even if
2°C warming doesn’t trigger nonlinear warming, this amount of warming will cause
great harm around the world to people and places that have done little to cause
climate change.
The following graph describes the staggering challenge facing the world if the
international community desires to limit warming to 2°C. The graph depicts three
different emissions reductions pathways where the steepness of ghg emissions
reductions needed to limit 2°C depend upon when global emissions levels peak, that
is in 2015, 2020, or 2025. Despite over twenty years since the international
community agreed in 1992 to adopt policies and measures based upon equity to
prevent dangerous climate change, global ghg emissions levels continue to rise
despite a global economic turn down in 2008. Global CO2 emissions grew 3 percent
in 2011 and were estimated to rise 2.6 in 2012. (Morello, 2012). Since the
international community began to negotiate a climate change solution, rather then
emissions levels diminishing they have grown to 58 percent above the 1990
emissions level in 2012 (Morello, 2012). And so, the world is facing the urgent need
to reduce ghg emissions at hard to imagine rates as seen in the following graph
where the different colored lines on this chart represent different assumptions about
climate sensitivity. This graph shows that if the world waits to act together to prevent
ghg emissions from rising until 2020 or 2025, the world will need to reduce ghg
emissions at staggering reduction levels after the peak years.
(Anderson, K..
2012)
On the basis of the magnitude of the ghg emissions reductions challenge facing the
world, mainstream scientists around the world are now emphatically trying to get the
world’s attention about the urgency of the need to act dramatically to prevent
dangerous climate change. Yet there has been little discussion in the media about
the importance of equity in national responses to this global emergency coupled with
the fact that one needs to understand other aspects of the climate change problem
to fully understand the importance of requiring nations to reduce their emissions
based upon “equity.”
Once one identifies an atmosphere ghg concentration level that will serve as a goal
for preventing dangerous warming it is a relatively straightforward calculation to
identify the remaining amounts of ghg emissions that can be emitted worldwide to
prevent atmospheric ghg concentrations from exceeding the maximum concentration
goal. This calculation is the basis for determining an emissions budget. Because
there is some uncertainty about climate sensitivity, that is how much warming the
Earth will experience at different atmospheric ghg concentrations, different
atmospheric ghg concentration goals create different levels of probability of limiting
warming to 2°C. The following chart identifies the quantity of ghg emissions in
gigatons of CO2 equivalent that the world may emit to achieve different levels of
Disinformation Campaign: A RigorousLook At The Campaign’s UntruthfulClaims.
Charles Mulenga on An Ethical Analysisof Obama’s Climate Speech, theAdverse Political Reaction to It, and the
Media Response.
CHARLES AGBOKLU on An EthicalAnalysis of Obama’s Climate Speech,the Adverse Political Reaction to It, andthe Media Response.
Donald A. Brown on An Ethical Analysisof Obama’s Climate Speech, theAdverse Political Reaction to It, and theMedia Response.
J ohn Lemons on An Ethical Analysis of Obama’s Climate Speech, the AdversePolitical Reaction to It, and the MediaResponse.
Donald A. Brown on Property Rights andSustainability
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probability that the 2° C warming limit will not be exceeded. Therefore we see from
this chart that if the entire world is assumed to be allowed to emit no more than 886
gigatons (Gt) of CO2 equivalent, this budgetary limit creates between a 8% and
37%, with a best estimate of 20%, probability that temperatures will exceed the
warming limit of 2°C. At the upper end of this chart, a 1437 Gt CO2 budgetary limit
creates a probability of between 29 to 70 probability, with a best estimate of 50%,
that the 2°C warming limit will be exceeded.
The chart also shows that if the world emits ghgs at levels projected at 56 Gt per
year, then, assuming that the world chooses to live with a budget of 886 Gt CO2
which gives the world an 80% probability that future warming will be limited to 2°C,
then after12 years there will be zero emissions left in the budget. The chart also
demonstrates that even if the world chooses to run the risk of accepting a 50%
probability that the 2°C warming will be exceeded then world can only emit
greenhouse gases at projected levels for 22 years.
As gloomy as this picture in regard to the remaining global ghg emissions budget, we
have not yet explained why getting nations to commit to reduce their emissions to
levels required of them by equity is so important and indispensable for thinking
clearly about how the world must respond to the threat of climate change. And so,
now, for the first time, we can explain the importance of “equity” in guiding
international responses to climate change.
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e Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding To Climate Change o... http://blogs.law.widener.edu/climate/2013/05/09/on-the-extraord
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7/28/2019 On the Extraordinary Urgency of Nations Responding to Climate Change on the Basis of Equity
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Returning to the use of a bathtub as a metaphor for the atmosphere, we note that
there is already elevated levels of ghg (metaphorically water) in the bathtub that have
risen to current levels from over 200 years of human activities. That is CO2 has
increased in the atmosphere from 280 ppm to 400 ppm since the beginning of the
industrial revolution. If we assume that atmospheric concentrations of CO2
equivalent should be limited to 450 ppm to give the world a 50% chance of keepingwarming from exceeding the 2°C warming limit, atmospheric concentrations have
increased already by120 ppm from pre-industrial levels and only 50 ppm of
atmospheric space are left to allocate to the entire world. The 120 ppm increase in
atmospheric CO2 concentrations that has already been put into the bathtub by
human activities has overwhelmingly been caused by activities in some rich,
developed countries much more than poor developing countries. The following chart
shows which countries have contributed the most elevated concentrations of CO2 in
the atmosphere.
(EPA, 2002)
And so some countries more than others have contributed far more than others toelevated ghg concentrations. Given that there’s only 50 ppm of atmospheric space
left to allocate (assuming and atmospheric goal of 450ppm giving approximately a 50
% chance of exceeding the 2°C) and some developing countries desperately need
to use the remaining atmospheric space to escape grinding poverty, it is obviously
unfair or inequitable to require all countries to reduce emissions by the same
amount.
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Furthermore, the above chart demonstrates that some countries including the United
States, Canada, and Australia, for instance, far exceed others in per capita levels
of emissions from their citizens compared to other countries such as India.
If it is determined that the entire world must reduce its emissions by 80% below 1990
levels to prevent dangerous climate change, high-emitting nations or governments
around the world, including the US, Canada, and Australia, will need to reduce their
emissions to even greater levels on the basis of equity and fairness. To require each
nation or government to reduce emissions by the same percentage amount would
freeze into place unjust emission levels for high-emitting governments and very low
emissions rates for poor developing countries. For this reason, almost all the
nations of the world, including the United States in 1992 when it ratified the
UNFCCC, agreed that each nation must reduce its emissions on the basis of
“equity” to prevent dangerous climate change. (UNFCCC, 1992: Art 3, Para 1) If all
nations need only reduce their emissions by equal percentage amounts, then a
high-emitting nation like the United States that emits ghg at rate of 17.3 tons per
capita would be allowed to emit at a level 10 times more per capita than a country
like Vietnam that emits 1.7 tons of ghg per capita. (World Bank, 2012b) As a result,
all nations have agreed that national targets must be based upon fairness or equity.
Given that the entire world has only 50 ppm of atmospheric space left to allocate to
give the world a reasonable expectation of preventing dangerous climate change,
the equitable and fairness dimensions of national ghg emissions reductions
commitments become obvious and crucial to increasing the ambition of nations to
reduce their ghg emissions. Yet most citizens seem completely unaware of the equity
issues entailed by climate change and many high-emitting nations are ignoring their
equitable responsibilities.
However, the ability of nations to ignore what equity requires of them will become
more and more difficult as the world wakes up to the hard-to-imagine stringent
carbon budget that the world must face to avoid catastrophe warming. In addition thelonger nations wait to respond to climate change on the basis of equity, the more
difficult it will be in the future to do so because the steepness of their emissions
reductions pathways needed to comply with what equity requires increases the
longer nations wait to respond appropriately.
References:
Anderson, Ken, (2012) , Climate Change Going Beyond Dangerous , Brutal
Numbers, Tenous Hope, http://whatnext.org/resources/Publications/Volume-
III/Single-articles/wnv3_andersson_144.pdf
EPA, (2002), CO2 emissions by count ry (http://www.epa.gov/climatechange
/emissions/)
Kunzig, Robert, (2013) National Geographic News, Climate Milestone: CO2 Level
Passes 400 ppm, National Geographic, http://news.nationalgeographic.com
/news/energy/2013/05/130510-earth-co2-milestone-400-ppm/
Morello, (2012), Global CO2 Emissions from Fossil-Fuel Burning Rise into
High-Risk Zone, Scientific American, http://www.scientificamerican.com
/article.cfm?id=global-co2-emissions-from
Open Source, (2013) http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming
/what-we-dont-know
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Category: Atmospheric Targets, climate change ethics, climate ethics, equity and climatechange, fair ghg emissions targets, General Climate Ethics, J ust allocation of gig emissions,sustainability ethicsTag: cliamte justice, climate change and morality, climate change ethics, climate ethics, distributive
justice and climate change, equity and climate change, equity and national ghg emissions, Ethics andClimate Change, Ethics and Global Warming, nation's fair share of safe global emissions, nationalclimate change policy and equity, US ethical responsibility for climate change.
May9,2013at11:44pm 10comments DonaldA.Brown
World Bank, (2012), CO2 Emissions (Metric Tons Per Capita),
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), (1992),
http://unfccc.int/essential_background/convention/background/items/1349.php
By:
Donald A. BrownScholar In Residence,
Sustainable Development Ethics and Law
Widener University School of Law
dabrown57@gmail. com
May19,2013at3:37am Reply
JohnLemons says:
Don:
As you know, I have long been encouraging to write about the urgency of the AGW
problem. In this blog, you have written what I believe not is your best blog but one of the best, if not the best, written about AGW. It absolutely excellent.
A couple of comments/questions, although none meant to be critical:
1. I understand why the 2C degrees temperature rise is used. However, as you
know, most science is now telling us that a so–called ‘safe’ level for temperature rise
is about 1.5C degrees, which computes to about 350 ppm carbon dioxide eq. instead
of 450 ppm eq. This, of course, makes your article all that much more scary.
2. My primary question now, given this exemplary article of yours, is following your
arguments about the urgency of the problem, what does this imply for considerations
of ethics to resolve the problem. Surely, if the problem is as urgent as you describe,
which I and many other scientists believe, urgency itself must allow the use of
different ethics or modes of conduct to resolve the problem. Any thoughts about
this? (Hint: I think this should be your next blog topic)
Don, thanks so much for writing this very excellent piece.
J ohn Lemons
DonaldA.Brown says:
10Responses
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May19,2013at5:09pm Reply
Thanks for your thoughtful comment. I agree completely that ethical discussion of
the 1.5 degree warming limit is well worth pursuing and a very important topic in
itself which has largely been ignored in policy circles. Secondly, as you know, I
strongly support non-violent civil disobedience as an ethically defensible response
to climate change. I do think careful thought about how this should be done so that
it communicates the injustice of the status quo is essential, a matter that has been
completely lost in the tar sands pipeline controversy.
I do think in addition to this, we need people to make the ethical and arguments in
publicly visible ways that people can understand them. There is considerable social
science analysis that concludes that social change happens (although often too
slowly for climate change) by people making moral arguments to their tribe that
their behavior is socially unacceptable. Social change will happen only if ethically
defensible moral arguments are made. This is likely to be insufficient by itself but
still indispensable to creating the kind of social change that we need.
May20,2013at5:39pm Reply
SvenABjorke says:
The vested interests in keeping the fossil fuel paradigm going some more years are
so powerful, it is extremely difficult to cope with them and their lobby and propaganda
industry. They tend to confuse the public by focusing on academic uncertainty, which
will of course always be there. This is why it is crucial that respected academics now
avoid eternal academic squabbles. We must focus on the elephant in the room: the
fossil fuel society, and the extremely irresponsible and unethical policy of the world’s
decisionmakers. The fossil fuel industry is destroying the world, we, the taxpayers of
the world, actually are misled to pay them for doing it, and our leading politicians are
fully aware of it. We can no longer let them hide behind hypotethetical uncertainties.
The focus on climate change and ethics is so right.http://ufbutv.com/2013/05/20/two-or-three-degrees-more-does-it-really-matter/
and http://ufbutv.com/2013/05/03/out-of-fossil-fuels-now/
May20,2013at8:00pm Reply
DonaldA.Brown says:
Yes, I agree completely with your comments. I also have looked at your web site,
thank you for sharing. This is good and important work you are doing.
Donald A. Brown
Scholar In Residence,
Sustainability Ethics and Law
Widener University School of Law
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May23,2013at1:23pm Reply
MichelleBaker says:
Donald – thank you for such a well-considered article on this important topic. I feel it
highlights the most significant fact about climate change – the failure of scientists to
clearly communicate its impact.
Climate change, more so than any other issue in today’s global sphere (including
Middle Eastern politics), illustrates the massive gap between subject matter experts
and laypeople at all educational levels. We need to do a much better job inside
universities, governments, and corporations training people to communicate clearly.
Thank you for continuing to outline these problems in such an articulate fashion. We
can all learn from the work you’re doing. – Michelle
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