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OESA/HRI Automotive Tooling Barometer
December 2016
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OESA/HRI Automotive Tooling Barometer - Dec. 2016
The OESA Automotive Tooling Barometer survey series was created by the OESA Tooling Council with the partnership of Harbour Results, Inc. to provide an indicator of the current state of the automotive tooling industry, and the perception of near-term prospects for the industry. The OESA Automotive Tooling Barometer captures the sentiment of the major companies in this market. Each survey in the series will have a different focus; the December theme is focused on wages and tenure.
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Executive Overview
Capacity utilization remains above 80%, a vast improvement from this time last year
Work on hold data indicated a 2 point increase from June
Survey participants’ sentiment continues to increase, finally going above 75
Sneak peak: Employee wages and benefits
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Question: Please identify your Revenue for 2015Question: Please identify your company’s geographic location
74%
26%
Geography
Respondent DemographicsTotal North American Respondents: 77
18%
24% 25%
15%
11%
Revenue Range
<$5M $5-10M $10-20M $20-40M >$40M
30%
67%
4%
Shop Type
Die Mold Other
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87%
76%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Canada United States
Utilization by Country
82%
76%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
Die Mold
Utilization by Shop Type
Canadian Tool Shops Continue to be Leveraged at a Higher Rate by 11 PointsAnother Positive Leading Indicator is that Die Shops have not Slowed Down
Question: What is your facility’s current capacity utilization?
5
20%
31%
21%
13% 15%14%
20%
32%
22%
12%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0 1-10 11-20 21-30 >30
Work on Hold
16-Jun 16-Dec
Overall Work ‘On Hold’ Increased 2 Percentage Points Since JunePercentage of Shops with More than 10% ‘On Hold’ Increased by 17 Percentage Points
Question: What percentage of jobs that you have been awarded are currently on hold due to reasons outside of your control?
Harbour Results estimates the industry ‘on
hold’ impact in Q3 to be
around $1.8B, an increase of about $200M
since June
June Average = 12% December Average = 14%
66%
49%
6
8%
16%18%
13%15%
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
<$5M $5-10M $10-20M $20-40M >$40M
Average Work on Hold %’s
$0.3$1.1
$2.7$3.7
$9.7
$-
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
<$5M $5-10M $10-20M $20-40M >$40M
Mill
ions
Average Work on Hold $’s
Expressed as a Percent, Work on Hold is Relatively Flat Across RevenuesHowever, Scaled for Actual Dollars, Work on Hold’s Impact Increases Dramatically
Question: What percentage of jobs that you have been awarded are currently on hold due to reasons outside of your control?
7
59
71
56
7366
74 78
0
20
40
60
80
100
Apr-
14
Aug-
14
Dec-
14
Apr-
15
Aug-
15
Dec-
15
Apr-
16
Aug-
16
Dec-
16
Apr-
17
Aug-
17
Dec-
17
Mar
-18
Sent
imen
t Ind
ex
2016 - Tooling Sentiment Index
Sentiment Index
Above red line: optimistic
Below red line:pessimistic
Overall Sentiment Increases to 78, Up 4 Points Since JuneYear Over Year, Sentiment has Increased from 66, an 18% Change
Question: How would you describe your business outlook for the next 3 months?
For the first time since HRI began asking about tooling
sentiment, the index has gone
above 75, driven by a strong auto
launch outlook
Up 4 Points
8
0% 0%
13%
29%
58%
0%
11% 13%
38% 38%
VeryPessimistic
SomewhatPessimistic
Neutral SomewhatOptimistic
VeryOptimistic
Sentiment by Shop Type
Die Mold
0% 0%6%
19%
75%
0%9%
13%
42%36%
VeryPessimistic
SomewhatPessimistic
Neutral SomewhatOptimistic
VeryOptimistic
Sentiment by ‘Class’
Primary Secondary
More Die Shops Appear to be Very Optimistic, a Good Leading IndicatorAlso, Primary Shops Closest to the OEMs are Overwhelmingly Positive
Question: How would you describe your business outlook for the next 3 months?
9
96% 78%
53%36%
16%
96%
77% 55%
38%
8%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
>0% >25% >50% >75% 100%
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
% of AR Paid on Time
Accounts Receivable Paid Within Contract Terms
16-Jan 16-Nov
93%81%
62%
45%26%
96%
78%
57%47%
22%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
>0% >25% >50% >75% 100%
Perc
ent o
f Res
pond
ents
% of New Work with Prog Payments
New Booked Business with Progressive Payment Terms
16-Jan 16-Nov
Since June, Progressive Payments Terms Have Shifted Very LittleAccounts Receivables Also Remained Flat in the Tooling Sector
Question: Over the past 4 months, approximately what percent of your accounts receivables have been paid on time?Question: Over the past 4 months approximately what percent of your new booked business included progressive paid terms?
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Employee Age Distribution Average Starting Wage (USD)
As Expected, a Significant Percentage of Employees are 40-60Die Shops, on Average, Pay Their New Employees the Highest Starting Wage
Question: How many employees do you currently employ by age range?Question: What is your average starting wage for new employees?
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Executive Summary
Capacity utilization remains strong Work on hold percentage relatively flat Sentiment index above 75 New business booked with progressive payments
shows no increase throughout 2016
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