Objective Evaluation of the Meso-NH Simulations during
Hibiscus-Troccinox-Troccibras
I. Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaignII. Three case studies: 13 Feb, 24 Feb, 3 March
J.-P Chaboureau, J.-P. Cammas, J. Duron, F. Gheusi, C. Mari, P. J. Mascart,
J.-P. Pinty
Laboratoire d’Aérologie (UPS/CNRS) Toulouse, France
I. Forecasts for the CampaignDaily real-time runs from 27 January to 5 March 2004 posted on http://www.aero.obs-mip.fr/mesonh/troccinox
• One single domain
• horizontal grid: 100 x 100 points at 30 km resolution
• 72 levels: from 40 m (bottom) up to 600 m (top)
• Physics
• turbulence: CBR TKE 1D scheme
• convection: Bechtold’s scheme
• microphysics: Pinty-Jabouille
• surface: ISBA
• radiation: ECMWF
• Initialization/coupling with ECMWF forecasts
• Lagrangian tracers
• Simulated GOES-E brightness temperature (Tb)
3000 km
3000 km
Model-to-satellite Approach
GOES-E 11 m Tb
Meso-NH SUBG with cloud fraction=f(Q1)
+24 h+24 h
+24 h+24 h
Meso-NH CTRL without cloud fraction
11 m Tb
00 UTC 24 Feb
Direct compariso
n
Cloud top height
13-14 FebFalcon+SF2
30-day Objective EvaluationFull domain3000x3000
km2
Bauru area 150x150 km2
24 FebSF4
3-4 MarchFalcon
IR Tb
Correlation
IR Tb
Diurnal Cycle over Bauru Area
30-day average
Bauru area 150x150 km2
Precipitation
IR TbSurface Flux
CAPE/CIN
Time Evolution over Bauru
Bauru area 150x150 km2
min(TB)<205 K Min(TB)<205 K
Precipitation
IR Tb
CAPE
Time-Longitude Diagram
Data averaged within 75 km around Bauru
Precipitation% of Tb<205K
GOES-E TbMeso-NH Tb
II. Three Case Studies
Preliminary work for three cases:
- 13-14 Feb, 24-25 Feb, and 3-4 March
Same setup as for the forecasts (x=30 km), but:
– coupling with analyses (instead of ECMWF forecast)
– use of the subgrid cloud scheme
Comparisons with:
- Meteosat Second Generation observations
- Falcon and SF2/4 measurements
Comparison with MSG at 10.8 m
Mete
osat-
8M
eso-N
H
00 UTC 14 Feb 00 UTC 25 Feb 00 UTC 4 March
Comparison with MSG at 3.9 m
Mete
osat-
8M
eso-N
H
00 UTC 14 Feb 00 UTC 25 Feb 00 UTC 4 March
Comparison with Falcon Flights
48 h Meso-NH run 36 h Meso-NH run Falcon flight
1719-2055 UTC 3 March
1650-2015 UTC
14 Feb
Data from DLR
Comparison with SF2 and SF4
13-14 Feb.
Data from G. Durry (CNRS)
24-25 Feb.
ConclusionsI. Forecasts for the TROCCINOX campaign
• better agreement with satellite observation when using the subgrid cloud scheme
• diurnal cycle of precip. in advance by 3 hours
• Deep convection events with Tb<205K more frequent during cold front episodes
II. Three case studies
• encouraging results when comparing with satellite and in-situ observations
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