Download - Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzoBologna, 23 giugno 2008 Bill Bakun USGS -Menlo Park Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue Why not start now.

Nuovi dati macrosismici e loro utilizzo Bologna, 23 giugno 2008

Bill BakunUSGS -Menlo Park

Towards a United States Earthquake Catalogue

Why not start now with California?

Why didn’t we do this 10 years ago?


Three PartsHistorical, Instrumental,Future

Events Same attributes, different rules

Can be stitched together


Status Quo

Many countries have national earthquake catalogs

Basis for important products

USA has no national catalog

Every probability report, every national ground motion map redefines the catalog

Waste of Time

Inconsistent Products


A European Historical Earthquake Catalog

Year Mo Da Ho

1578

1578 04 01

1578 04 27 11

1578 05 20 16

1578 10 21 04

1579 01 26 06

1579 01 30

1580

1580 04 06 18

1580 05 01

1580 11 03

1580 12 24

1581 03 10

1581 06 18 07

1582

1582 05

Ax

SCIACCA

Vrancea

GERA

BAS-PLATEAUX DAUPHINOIS

Melilla

MARCHE-BOISCHAUT ?

Lorca.MU

Myonia

DOVER STRAITS

DOVER STRAITS

TRANSYLVANIA

TRANSYLVANIA

BOXMEER

Málaga

Alcalá la Real

POZZUOLI

Lat Lon

37.508 13.083

45.700 26.600

50.880 12.230

45.583 5.350

35.267 -2.933

46.583 2.000

37.683 -1.700

38.450 22.310

51.000 1.660

51.000 1.660

46.500 24.000

46.500 24.000

51.600 5.900

36.717 -4.417

37.467 -3.933

40.822 14.123

Root RL Nmdp Ix

Barbano et al., 1996 11 1 7

Purcaru, 1979 22

Sieberg, 1940b 22

SisFrance, 2009 12 3 4

Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 1 8

SisFrance, 2009 12 20 7

Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 1 7

Kouskouna et al., 1998 11 10 8

Musson, 2008 11 91 7-8

Musson, 2008 11 7 F

Réthly, 1952 22

Réthly, 1952 22

Van Beurden, 1890 22

Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 2 7

Martinez S. & M., 2002 13 1 6-7

Arch.Mac.GNDT, 1995 11 1 7-8

?

Io Mw

7 5.17

6.50

5.00

6-7

8

7-8

7

9 6.80

5.46

3.92

7

7

4.30

7

7-8

7-8 5.37

earthquake parameters


27/12/1722 Algarve

Martinez S. & M.,2002

Boxer i NA4

Event Root MDPcompilation

Method Calibration Lat, Lon Mw

Ic2

37.106, -7.873 5.74 ± 0.50

An Example from Europe: varied alternatives and results


27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4



Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50

Earthquake parameters from MDPs: varied alternatives and results


27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4

Baptista et al.,2007



Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4Ic2

B&W NA4

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.108, -7.837

37.074, -7.757

6.27 ±0.35

5.97 ±0.01

6.38 ±0.50

6.00 ±0.20

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50



27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4




Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4Ic2

B&W NA4

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.108, -7.837

37.074, -7.757

6.27 ±0.35

5.97 ±0.01

6.38 ±0.50

6.00 ±0.20

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50


Mw = f (Io)? Iberian catalog 36.400, -7.767 6.50



27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4




Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4Ic2

B&W NA4

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.108, -7.837

37.074, -7.757

6.27 ±0.35

5.97 ±0.01

6.38 ±0.50

6.00 ±0.20

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50



? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90

Earthquake parameters from MDPs: alternative methods and results


27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4




Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4Ic2

B&W NA4

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.108, -7.837

37.074, -7.757

6.27 ±0.35

5.97 ±0.01

6.38 ±0.50

6.00 ±0.20

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50



? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90

Tectonic Baptista et al., 2007 37.017, -7.817 6.50


Phase 1: Compile for each event Use undergrads, interns

Review, revise


27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4




Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4Ic2

B&W NA4

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.108, -7.837

37.074, -7.757

6.27 ±0.35

5.97 ±0.01

6.38 ±0.50

6.00 ±0.20

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50



? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90




Review, revise

Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!


Stakeholders

Users: Mark Peterson, Ned Field

$$$: NRC, COE, PG&E

Enforcers: Management

Experts: All Views Represented


• Include Parameters (and uncertainties) for All Significant Historical and Instrumental earthquakes

• Supported by all stakeholders (NEHRP,USGS, SCEC, etc.)

• Basis for all US earthquake hazard products

• A Unified Archive (Distributed?)

• Include Data Roots, alternative solutions

• Accessible-to-All On Line

Catalog Attributes:


27/12/1722 Algarve


Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4




Ic2B&W

NA4

Literature

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.117, -7.738

37.171, -7.774

36.979, -7.675

5.74 ± 0.50

5.40 ± 0.23

6.81 ± 0.50

6.41 ±0.50

5.60

Boxer i NA4

Boxer n NA4Ic2

B&W NA4

MEEP NA4

37.106, -7.873

37.106, -7.873

37.108, -7.837

37.074, -7.757

6.27 ±0.35

5.97 ±0.01

6.38 ±0.50

6.00 ±0.20

California 37.153, -7.765 6.59 ±0.50



? Vilanova & Fo., 2007 37.170, -7.580 6.90




Review, revise

Phase 2:Expert Panel selects Preferred Path and WHY!


• The Easy Part: Instrumental List – Pointers to related Intensity

Data• The Hard Part: Pre-Instrumental List

– Historical earthquakes– -Paleoseismic events


•Instrumental Side: More to Do

• Explain Puzzling Magnitudes

•1949 Puget Sound

•1989 Loma Prieta


Historical Earthquakes

• Build on the European experience


The Really Hard Part

• Controversial Historical Earthquakes– Different compilations of data– Different Analyses– Different Locations or Magnitudes


US Complexity Counterparts?

Historical?

Instrumental?

• 1811-1812 New Madrid•Where?• Magnitude?

• 1906 San Francisco• 3 Published Epicenters?• 3 Published Magnitudes?


Historical Earthquakes:• Build List of Historical Earthquakes (100? M > 5 1/2 events)

• Construct Roots

• Empanel experts to select preferred solutions

• Management to Maintain and Support the catalog

•Do ii now!

•GEM will build and maintain the archive and internet interface