Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate , the
MACC project and its relevance to EMEP
Leonor Tarrasón
EMEP/MSC-W, met.no
9th TFMM meeting, 23-25th April 2008, Bordeaux, France
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
•A proposed pilot core GMES Atmospheric Service, pilot core GAS, funded under FP7 for 2009-2011
•Successor to the GEMS FP6 project and core elements of ESA-funded GMES Service Element project PROMOTE
•Passed evaluation thresholds with highest mark among GMES projects and is presently under contract negotiations
Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Envisaged evolution of the core GASGMES Atmospheric Service
GEMS
EC FP6 Integrated Project
2005 - 2009
Operational core GMES Atmospheric Service (GAS)
2012 - ........
MACC – Monitoring Atmospheric Composition & Climate
Proposed EC FP7 Integrated Project
2009 - 2011
PROMOTE
ESA GMES Service Element
2004 - 2009
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
The MACC Partnership• 45 national entities
(universities, labs, environment agencies, …) from18 European States, plus ECMWF and JRC
• Partners include 11 Met Services from Member and Cooperating States of ECMWF
• Supporting organizations comprise several other national institutes, also EUMETSAT and WMO
• Adrian Simmons from ECMWF is project coordinator
ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts INTUKMET Met Office UKLMD, LA, LISA, ICARE
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique-INSU FR
CEA-LSCE Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique FRDLR Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. DEMPG Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e. V. DEKNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute NLBIRA Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy BEFMI Ilmatieteen Laitos - Finnish Meteorological Institute FIDMI Danish Meteorological Institute DKDWD Deutscher Wetterdienst DEIUP-UB University of Bremen DEUPMC-SA Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 FRNKUA National and Kapodistrian University of Athens GRMETEO-FR Météo-France - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques FRNUIG National University of Ireland, Galway IESMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute SUARPA ER ARPA Emilia Romagna ITINM Instituto Nacional de Meteorología ESMET.NO Meteorologisk Institutt NOFRIUUK Rheinisches Insti. für Umweltforschung an der Universität zu Köln DEJRC European Commission - Directorate General Joint research Centre JRCINERIS Institut National de l’Environnement Industriel et des Risques FRCHMI Czech Hydrometeorological Institute CZNMA National Meteorological Administration, Romania ROPIEP Institute of Environmental Protection PLIMPERIAL Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine UKFZJ Forschungszentrum Juelich GmbH DEARSO Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia SV
ARMINESAssociation pour la recherche et le développement des méthodes et processus industriels
FR
SRON Netherlands Institute for Space Research NLUNIVLEEDS
University of Leeds UK
KCL King’s College London UKVU Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam NLUBA_Austria
Umweltbundesamt GmbH AT
TNO Nederlandse Organisatie voor toegepast-natuurwetenschappelijk onderzoek NLCERC Cambridge Environemental Research Consultants Ltd UKCGS Carlo Gavazzi Space S.p.A. ITFlyby Flyby s.r.l. ITCERFACS Centre Européen de Recherche et Formation avancée en Calcul Scientifique FRCNES Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales FRNILU Norsk Institutt for Luftforskning NOCNR National Research Council ITANOTHER National Environment Protection Agency
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Envisaged GAS Architecture
D ATA
SERVICES
END
USERS
OBSERVATION SUPPLY
In-situ & Space; Direct & Retrieved
GLOBAL
Monitoring & Forecasting
EUROPEAN-SCALE
Assimilation & Ensembles
Downstream Servicesincluding education and training
Other GMES Core Services
RESEARH
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Envisaged GAS Architecture
D ATA
SERVICES
END
USERS
OBSERVATION SUPPLY
In-situ & Space; Direct & Retrieved
GLOBAL
Monitoring & Forecasting
EUROPEAN-SCALE
Assimilation & Ensembles
Downstream Servicesincluding education and training
Other GMES Core Services
RESEARH
M A C C
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
The MACC Project Architecture
PRODUCTSBridge to downstream
services and other users, and products to support
health and policy services
GLOBAL
REGIONAL
OBSERVA TIONS
In-situ and satellite
data acquisition,
retrievals and pre-
processing
Fire analysis
and other emissions
Inventories Users
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
The MACC Global Data Assimilation, Production and Service Component
Downstream services
End users
Other GMES core services
ECMWF meteorological operations and
climate reanalysis
Satellite and in-situ observations;
estimates of fire and other emissions
Product display,
supply and general
web servicesMonitoring
and validation
Product generation
Globalservices
Six-month delayed mode
Reanalysis(2003-2010)
Real time
Global production
Aerosolassimilation
Greenhousegas
assimilation
Integrated analysis
and forecasting
system
Reactivegas
assimilation
Global data assimilation
GEMSpre-production analysis and
forecasting system
Greenhousegas
modelling
Other MACC global
components
Reactivegas
modelling
Aerosolmodelling
MACC
Regional AQ
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
The Regional MACC cluster
6 (+) operational assimilation and forecast systems to provide ensemble results
Regional ensemble
forecasting
Regionalair-quality
assessment
Regional data assimilation
UV and solar radiation
Global Production
Global reactive gases and aerosols
Satellite and in-situ
observations; fire and other
emissions
End users
Outreach to national
forecasting
Support to policy and
risk assessment
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Met.no uses the Unified EMEP model in forecast mode for GEMS
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
www.prevair.org
Esmeralda A regional forecasting tool… From national to regional Daily modeling…
…To a chimere regional modelling.
… With local focus
A chimere daily National Forecasting,
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Analysed daily maximum maps
Ozone forecasting NO2 forecasting
Esmeralda a regional mapping tool… From national to regional Daily modelling…
improved by observed datas
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Maps of air pollution; Mixing Background and traffic
Hourly NO2 concentrations: example : 18th November 2005
Good trends for NO2 hourly meansBut night urban background under estimated (20 µg/m3)
� : Fixed sources • : AIRPARIF monitoring sites6h-7h
7h-8h
8h-9h
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Products from MACC relevant to EMEP
• Daily forecasts of global air quality (1x1) • Daily forecasts of regional air quality (0.5x0.5) for
European region• Ensemble forecasts of European air quality
• Daily forecasts of regional air pollution with source allocation
• Emergency toolbox for special risk situations
• Re-analysis of air quality status in Europe every 6-months
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
Air pollution forecasting in itself is not a goal for EMEP, but it is a useful mean to:
– Investigate further how air pollution affects the weather systems
– Knowledge about pollution can improve weather forecasts
– Step towards a better understanding of climate system
– Effectively combine model data and observations
– Valuable data assimilation techniques
– Enhance the use of satellite data
and these are indeed goals of the EMEP programme…
Why is forecastingair pollution useful for EMEP ?
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
New developments: The world is turning NRT!
Proposal for MACC under GMES:
– Ensemble of RAQ models every day– Forecasting with source allocation every day– Emergency scenario responses for risk situations
– Re-analysis of status of air quality every 6 months (!)– Further integration of models, monitoring data and
reduction of uncertainties
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
How should the EMEP community contribute?
FAQ to EMEP
• Why does it take 2 years to get the EMEP meausurements ? Can we get the measurement data earlier?
• Why EMEP reports are always 2 years arrears ?• Can we get the SR data earlier?• Now that the emission data is in the WebDab, can we
get the data earlier that from 2-years arrears?
• .... EEA ozone reports are available after 6 months – National reports on PM exceedances are available after 1
year User groups in GEMS require status reports every 6
months
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
A key point isquality and reliability
of the results
Quality assurance takes time !Still, we need to find ways to secure the
rapid delivery (RD) of EMEP data
Norwegian Meteorological Institute met.no
How to improve the timeliness of EMEP results keeping its
quality?
• How can we provide information on the status of transboundary air pollution before 2 years?
• What are the limitations at the EMEP modelling centers (MSC-E and MSC-W) ?
• What are the limitations at CCC ?• What actions should be proposed to
compile monitoring data from countries within a shorter time frame than 2 years?
• What actions can be proposed for countries to deliver emission data more often?
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