LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Next Wave of Data Centers & Interconnects
10GBase-T, DAC,
40G/100G transceivers,
AOCs, Embedded Modules
9/18/2012 1
Brad Smith Sr. VP LightCounting
Avago
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Agenda
• What is going on in the data centers that is driving the interconnect space
• 10GBase-T, Direct Attach Copper
• 40G & 100G transceivers
• Active optical cables
• Embedded Optical modules
9/18/2012 2
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
About LightCounting
9/18/2012 3
http://www.lightcounting.com/reports.cfm
Transceiver Research Databases
High speed interconnect Research LH telecom & FTTx -to- Data centers Ethernet, Fibre Channel, InfiniBand Vertical areas: 40/100G, AOCs, EOMs
LIGHTCOUNTING Market Research on High-Speed Interconnects Datacom, Telecom, CATV, FTTX, Consumer markets © Copyright 2011 LightCounting LLC All material proprietary and confidential.
Problem with Optical Interconnects All Predictions are 35%-90% Traffic Growth
9/18/2012 4
IEEE BWA, Cisco VNI, LightCounting Model
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Virtually all the Internet traffic – goes through an optical
transceiver somewhere in the telecom and datacom network!
9/18/2012 5
Virtually all the Internet traffic – goes through an optical
transceiver somewhere in the telecom and datacom network!
Supplied by transceiver companies… About one quarter away for bankruptcy
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9/18/2012 6
Virtually all the Internet traffic – goes through an optical transceiver somewhere in the telecom and
datacom network!
Supplied by transceiver companies… About one quarter away from
bankruptcy!
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Problem with Optical Interconnects What’s Wrong with this Picture?
9/18/2012 7
IEEE BWA, Cisco VNI, LightCounting Model Optical Stocks
Traffic going through roof Profits going through the floor
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Big Changes in Data Centers Changes in Data Centers Drives Interconnects
9/18/2012 8
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M&As Restructure the Industry ~24-months
Systems Cabling
Transceivers Semiconductors
9/18/2012 9
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Cabling Companies Buy AOC Startups + BUs
• TE bought Zarlink BU • FCI Bought MergeOptics • Molex bought Luxtera BU • Samtec bought AlpenIO
Result: • $ xx Billion, international connector, cabling, companies • Offering transceiver and AOCs, EOM, VCSELs
– New set of competitors for transceiver companies – Full line of copper & optical products – Power cables, every protocol, every MSA, connector, etc
9/18/2012 10
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Cisco Introduced Blade Servers Competes against former server partners
• HP bought 3Com/3Par
• IBM bought Blade Network Technologies
• Dell bought Force10
• Oracle bought Sun Microsystems
• Mellanox bought Voltaire (InfiniBand)
• Intel bought QLogic and Fulcrum (InfiniBand) & Crays HPC Intereconnect BU
Now integrated Server and Switching companies
9/18/2012 11
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Cisco Buys Transceiver Companies CoreOptics & LightWire
• CoreOptics: 100G Long haul in-house
• LightWire: Silicon photonics in-house
– 4x25G (100G) -- WDM
– High speed modulation (40G) & integrated electronics
– Data center (500 meters) & Metro (10Km)
Result:
• Servers, switches, and interconnects – all in-house
9/18/2012 12
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Software Defined Networking
• SDN Virtualizes the networking hardware
• VMWare bought Nicira
• Citrix bought Nutanix
• Oracle bought Xsigo
• Cisco Systems’ investment in Insieme
• Bottom line: – Big technology companies are buying their way into
the virtualized storage and virtualized networking markets.
– Virtualizations will likely increase all the DC traffic
9/18/2012 13
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9/18/2012 14
Same thing that happened with PCs in 1980s with Taiwanese clone PCs and big name brands ……is happening to servers and switches! This will change everything!
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Enter the White Box Clones
Servers
• Big Internet related companies (Google, Facebook, Amazon, etc.) buying servers directly from ODMs
• Making designs available for anyone to buy
• Server business already at 22% GM & heading lower
• NET: White box commodity servers!
Switches
• White box ToR and EoR switches
• Buy switch chips from Broadcom, Marvel, Mellanox, …Intel
• Run OpenFlow (open source network switching software)
• No longer special switching software play
• No longer a Microsoft-Intel instruction set lock
• NET: White box commodity switches!
9/18/2012 15
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Reactions Reactions likely: • M&As: Buy transceiver companies Cisco/Lightwire • Advanced technology: Use technology as a weapon against
low cost manufacturing white boxes • More highly integrated Blade server-switch boxes • Rack-as-a-Sku” • Non-Intel Alternatives: ARM cores, Power7, SPARC
microprocessors competing with Intel • HPC technologies hit high-end data centers • Software Defined Networking
9/18/2012 16
“Rack as a Sku”
Integrated Blade Server/Switches
All these changes are going to rewrite the Server/Switch and Interconnect landscape going forward
Mez board Copper KR
Server blade
Switch blade
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Server-Switch Architectures
9/18/2012 17
2 Sockets 4 Sockets
1RU Servers with Top-of-rack Switches Blade Servers with Integrated Switches
No single solution!
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Server & Switch Industry Transitions
9/18/2012
Brad Smith [email protected]
18
“Rack as a Sku”
Traditional Rack Servers
& Top-of-rack switches DAC, QSFR SR & AOCs
SMF 10Km LR4 transceivers
Internally connected with EOMs
and AOCs
SMF 2Km nR4 transceivers
Multiple Blade Server Bays per Rack Custom (e.g Google)
& White Box Clones DAC, QSFR SR & AOCs
SMF 2Km nR4 transceivers
Today 2013-2014
2015+
From Major System Suppliers
Cisco, HP, IBM, etc.
Focus on advanced
architectures & long term
Focus on low prices &
3 yr life cycles
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Waiting for New Servers Waiting for 10GBASE-T
Waiting for Europe’s economy to stop crashing
Preparing for the Exa Flood of Data
9/18/2012 19
State of the Industry Mid 2012
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State of the Industry • Data centers are largely very cost sensitive;
• Cost governs all decision making (over technology) – Decision algorithm (Cost of new product) / Server cost
– Buy 100G LR4 transceiver OR 8 servers?
• Average and large data center needs 4-5G, not 10G yet
• Getting ready for 10G and 40G QSFP
• Most popular optical transceiver = 1G SFP+ & 10G SFP+
9/18/2012 20
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State of the Industry
Servers & Switches
• Intel’s next gen microprocessor “Romley” server architecture – delayed ~6-9 mo’s
– 4 cores 10 cores (14 cores AMD) -- PCI Express Gen 2 Gen 3 with twice I/O
– QuickPath to bypass bus bottlenecks -- 32-nm very energy efficient
• Top-of-rack & End-of-row switches are 10G SFP+ + 40G QSFP ready but ….
• Entire industry was “Waiting for new Romley servers”
• And 10GBASE-T low-power 28-nm parts
9/18/2012 21
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Intel’s Tick-Tock Model Sets the Clock for Data Center Upgrades
Tick= Architecture upgrade ; Tock= Silicon Shrink
9/18/2012 22
Data center spending delayed by 8 months
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Microprocessors
9/18/2012 23
2-4 Cores 10-16 Cores 40-50 Cores
2 MPUs/Server 128GBytes DRAM PCIe Gen2 (8 lanes @5G/lane
? MPUs/Server 1T+ Bytes DRAM PCIe Gen3 (8G/lane) ARM, INTEL, AMD
4 MPUs/Server 768G Bytes DRAM PCIe Gen3 (8/16 lanes @8G/lane
? Data center in a server
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I/O for Interconnects Virtualization software • Sends jobs to non busy MPUs
– Increases utilization from 20% to 90%
• I/O increases: Data Direct I/0 - transfer of data directly to from the network interface and cache, bypassing main memory
PCI Express • PCI Express Gen 2 5G 8b/10b and 8 lanes
• PCI Express Gen 3 8G 128/132 and 8-16 lanes
9/18/2012 24
PCIe Bus
20% 90%
Bottom line: ~200-%300 % faster I/O bandwidth
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Servers per Rack
9/18/2012 25
48 - Severs / Rack 60-80 Severs / Rack
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Traditional Data center Computer & Switch History Museum
9/18/2012 26
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Modern Data center
9/18/2012 27
bestwebhostinggeek.com
keyitec.com
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9/18/2012 28
.primecaretech.com
Mega Data Center
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SuperComputer Site (HPC)
9/18/2012 29
18M Watts of power
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Apple South Carolina Data Center
9/18/2012 30
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Interconnect Technologies
9/18/2012 31
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“Waiting for 10GBASE-T • Will be Reeaaaaly big!
• “When it gets small ….….. it will be big”
• Lan On Motherboard (LOM) is key to market
- PHY chip needs 28-nm (now at 40-nm)
- Late 2013/2014
- 10GBASE-T likely the last LOM implementation
• VCs spent $850M on 10+ startups
• Vendor community still shrinking
– Broadcom, Marvel are the 2 main players left
– Also Applied Micro, Aquantia in game
– PLX/Teranetics
• Sold Phy division to Aquantia
– Aquantia: Last remaining VC funded startup
9/18/2012 32
130-nm - This will be the year! 90-nm - This will be the year ! 65-nm - This will be the year ! 40-nm - This will be the year! 28-nm – This will be the year!
NIC
LOM
Main advantage: No huge markup like with Optical transceivers Will be big with LOM 2014
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IEEE Update 40GBASE-T
• New CFI at the IEEE (July meeting) – everything is indeterminate at this point
• No vendor is anywhere close to payback 10GBASE-T investments so real support is likely to be slow – 2017-2018 event
• Designed for 2016 when Romley+ moves the server to 40G uplinks
• 85-90% use will be Server uplinks to top-of-rack switch
• 4 twisted pairs
• Encoding(?): 10G using differential signaling across pairs
• Scheme: 4x10G configuration
• Reach(?): 50 m (Not likely 100m anymore)
• Connector(?): Likely new RJ-4x; Likely not field terminated
• Cable(?): Cat8? Cat7a
– In any case – it’s a NEW cable! Meaning the “existing installed cable is not usable”
• Biggest advantage is = no optical price mark ups by suppliers
• Not likely to be supported by any startup so its Broadcom/Marvel game
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Direct Attach copper • Has become very popular <5-7meters • Filling the 10GBASE-T void • Low-cost, low-power, Plug & Play • Cheaper than optical SFP+ • Active & Passive DAC • Outselling 10GBase-T 4:1
• Numerous problems surfacing
– Electrically linking different vendors equipment together directly – different than linking optically
– “Limiting” and “non-limiting” ports – no warning labels
• Net: “DAC in the Rack” • ---until 10GBASE-T LOM shows up
9/18/2012 34
10G = 7 meters 14G = 3meters 28G = ????
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100G SR & LR4
• So called 2 Km solution really 4-6 dB issue
• IEEE is still working the technical issues on Reach 400m-1,200m
• 25G VCSELS maybe reach 25 meters!
– 125 meters with FEC chips added (more cost, more power)
• 50G maybe 12 meters without FEC
9/18/2012 35
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Why 100G Needed in Data Centers 100G Driving Forces
• 48 – 80 Servers/ rack
• 10Gbps server uplinks
• 480G -800G problem!
• Will demand 100G uplinks
• Timing: Romley Q2/2012 : Volume 2H/2012
• ~ 2H/ 2013 need for 100G transceivers climb rapidly
• Then it pops to 40G server uplinks in 2015/16!
9/18/2012 36
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100G
9/18/2012 37
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9/18/2012 38
.primecaretech.com
Mega Data Center
Link this rack
To this rack
400-600metes Not 2Km! 4-6dB link budget
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Active Optical Cables
9/18/2012 39
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What is an Active Optical Cable? • Parallel optic transceiver in a standard MSA shell but… integrates
the fibers directly into the MSA
• No optical connectors
• Changes the game!
9/18/2012 40
Molex
Finisar
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Active Optical Cables
• Very popular in High Performance computers (HPCs) TOP25
• Technology is proven out and is rippling down to Top 25-100 & High-end data centers
• Used to connect top-of-rack switches to end-of-row switches (4x10G QSFP)
• Large router companies are starting to use 12x10G CXP
• Advantages: – Plug & Play; green light;
– No optical connector cleaning, familiar copper connector;
– low power (700mW per end)
• InfiniBand today but moving to Ethernet, SAS, PCI Express
9/18/2012 41
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1 Core AOC Technology Creates Multiple Products
• Multiple types – 1x10G SFP+ - 4x5G CX-4
– 4x10G QSFP - 4x14G QSFP
– 12x10G CXP - 12x12.5G CXP
– 8 x 8G iPass
• Breakout AOCs: 4-SFP/QSFP and 3-QSFP/CXP
• Embedded Optical Module (EOM) replacing SNAP12
– For inside chassis applications (no MSAs yet)
• Parallel Optical Transceivers
• AOC/Transceiver: AOC with connectorized fibers
• Multiple applications: HPC to consumer
9/18/2012 42
Avago
FCI
GigaLight
AlpenIO Photonera
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9/18/2012 43
CES AOCs
LED lights To USB and HDMI cables To Supercomputers AOCs
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Consumer Embedded AOCs 4x12.5G
9/18/2012 44
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Embedded AOCs 4x12.5G
9/18/2012 45
Parallel
AOC
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9/18/2012 46
Embedded Optical Modules The End of Pluggable Optics?
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Embedded Optical Modules “Avago MicroPOD-Like Thingies”
• Inside chassis applications
• Mid-board optics
• Start out at 10G but the big market will be at 25G
• Start out in large routers; later move to servers
9/18/2012 47
Finisar
Avago
NEC
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Three Generations of EOMs
9/18/2012 48
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9/18/2012 49
16 MicroPods in 4x4 array
Try cleaning this optical mess!
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9/18/2012 50
Its all about achieving high density interconnects
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IBM HPCs & Avago MicroPODs
9/18/2012 51
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9/18/2012 52
IBM
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9/18/2012 53
IBM
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9/18/2012 54
Massively complex mechanical assembly!
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8-10 Companies Showing Prototypes 2-3 With Announced products
9/18/2012 55
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Where Are EOMs Used
9/18/2012 56
Demo board from US Conec and Avago
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Sony AOC/EOM CXN2006, CXN2007 and CXN2300 optical interconnection modules
• Designed for 4K x2K video for HDTVs and digital cameras
• 4x10G based on VCSELs with a lens-less internal design
• 10mm x 16mm
9/18/2012 57
http://www.sony.net/Products/SC- P/cx_news/vol68/pdf/featuring_vol68_interconnection.pdf
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9/18/2012 58
Fujitsu
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SNAP12 vs MiniPOD
9/18/2012 59
Clearly EOMs have an advantage over SNAP12s
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NEC 12x25G EOM at OFC2011
9/18/2012 60
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Where Are EOMs Used?
9/18/2012 61
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9/18/2012 62
Where do you put an EOM?
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9/18/2012 63
Avago EOMs
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9/18/2012 64
Offers extremely high density Optical interconnects to board edge
125mW/ch @ 10G 12 channels simplex = 1.45W 8.8 W Duplex link would use 12 EOMs = 17W
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Optically Enabled Hybrid Chip Packages
• FTTChip
– Mez cards
– Chip/Optical
9/18/2012 65
Reflex/Fulcrum
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Embedded Optical Modules The End of Pluggable Optics?
• Answer=NO! But it is one more opportunity. – No standard electrical or optical connectors? – No interoperability requirements? – No standard configurations 4x, 12 channel? – Every supplier has unique products (no second source)
• The industry will be able to achieve enough density in the data center with pluggable optics for at least next 4-5 years – 8 CFP/2s running 100G = 800G – 36 QSFP28 running 100G = 3,600G
1. Significant concerns about mixing 70C optics in 100C ASICs 2. Biggest limiter is repairs on failure
– Pluggable = changing fan belt on car – EOM = changing the piston
3. Rigorous vendor qualification and selection 3. Few major players
9/18/2012 66
Biggest inhibitor of market adoption
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Conclusion
• Data center are in tremendous change
– Impact or clone Servers/switches
– M&As re-writing the landscape
• Low cost AOCs and Embedded Optical Modules
• Transition to 25G signaling for SR and LR4
• 25G is likely to “thin the heard” in transceivers
9/18/2012 67
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Thank You
9/18/2012 68
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