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May of 2011May of 2011
Ethylene, PE, Propylene, PP,
Styrene, PolystyreneMarket Review
Presented at ANIQ’s Convention, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Ethylene, PE, Propylene, PP,
Styrene, PolystyreneMarket Review
Presented at ANIQ’s Convention, Puerto Vallarta, Mexico
Raul Arias Alvarez
Senior Consultant and
Manager Latin America
Raul Arias Alvarez
Senior Consultant and
Manager Latin America
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Market Review May of 2011
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About Economists and Consultants
“ An economist is an expert who will know tomorrowwhy the things he predicted yesterday didn't happen
today”
Laurence J. Peter, educator andauthor of The Peter Principle
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Market Review May of 2011
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Economic recovery in the U.S. taking longer than
expected
Global GDP Outlook(percentage)
Global GDP Outlook(percentage)
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
World North America Western Europe Japan China
A n n u a l r e a l c h a n g e i n G D P
Scenario Actual
XL: 00235\09 .01.06.1\09\US\ Sec2
North American GDP Outlook(percentage)
North American GDP Outlook(percentage)
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
R e a
l G D P G r o w t h , %
United States Canada MexicoPOPS2010_ER_FR_Sec_2
Actual Scenario
In late April, the U.S. Fed lowered its 2011 economic growth forecast from up
to 3.9% to 3.1 – 3.3%
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Shale gas, a game changer
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Shale Gas
G a s P r o d u c t i o n - T C F p e r Y e a r
xls POPS2010 Supp I 00102.0010.3016 Sec 3
US Unconventional GrasProduction Forecast
US Unconventional GrasProduction Forecast
55%46%
62% 66% 68% 68%
27% 32%
18% 12% 11% 10%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Ethane Propane Butanes Naphtha & Heavier
W e i g h t p e r c e n t
xls POPS2010 Supp I 00102.0010.3016 Sec 5
USGC Ethylene Feedstock Sources2000 - 2025
USGC Ethylene Feedstock Sources2000 - 2025
Shale gas production will impact petrochemicals in North America in many
ways. Among others, the use of ethane as feedstock will increase and ethylene
will improve its competitiveness over propylene
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S a u d i A . - E
S a u d i A . - P
W . C a n a d a - E
W .
E u r o p e - N
U S G C - N
S i n g a p o r e - N
S . K o r e a - N
U S G C - E
J a p a n - N
Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs
Regional HDPE Cash Cost of Pro duction, Integrated Ethylene, 2004
S a u d i A . - E
S a u d i A . - P
S i n g a p o r e - N
W . C a n a d a - E
S . K o r e a - N
W .
E u r o p e - N
U S G C - E
U S G C - N
J a p a n - N
Net RawMaterials Utilities Fixed Costs
Regional HDPE Cash Cost of Prod uction Forecast, Integrated Ethyl ene, 2010
S a u d i A . - E
S a u d i A . -
E / P
W .
C a n a d a - E
U S G C - E
S .
K o r e a - N
S i n g a p o r e - N
J a p a n - N
U S G C - N
W . E u r o p e - N
Net Raw Materials Utilities Fixed Costs
Regional HDPE Cash Cost of Pro duction , Integrated Ethylene, 2009
Prepared in 2004
Prepared in 2010
Shale gas ethane has resulted in and improvement of
competitiveness of derivatives – example HDPEHDPE Cash Cost of Production (integrated C2) 2004 and 2010/2010HDPE Cash Cost of Production (integrated C2) 2004 and 2010/2010
Prepared in2004
Prepared in2010 A B C D E F G H I
A: Saudi A. – E F: Singapore - N
B: Saudi A. – P G: S. Korea - N
C: W. Canada – E H: USGC - E
D: W. Europe – N I: Japan - N
E: USGC - N
A B F C G D H E I
A B C H G F I E D
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A new wave of investment about to begin?
• Dow announced plans to add propylene and ethylene capacity
(900KTA by 2018 and 2.3MMTA by 2015)
• Chevron Phillips Chemical may build ethane cracker on U.S.coast
• LyondellBasell Industries planning to increase ethylene
capacity by about 500KTA and may build ethane cracker orparticipate in joint project
• Westlake announced plans to expand ethylene capacity in
2012 (ca. 105KTA) and 2014• Braskem, giving consideration to ethylene and propylene
capacity in the U.S.
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Market Review May of 2011
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PolyethylenePolyethylene
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The global view
• Economic recovery, evident in may parts of the world,
but gradual in the U.S.• 2010, spectacular year for ethylene capacity development
in the ME. Since ethane has become scarce, almost all new
plants, with E/P or E/B crackers
• ME ethylene project pipeline relative small for the next years
• Investment in PDH, large FCC units and metathesis have
boosted propylene capacity in the ME
• Installed propylene production capacity in Asia Pacific sur-
passed the combined capacity of Western Europe and USA
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Market Review May of 2011
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beyond14,647 14,976
36,490
58,789
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2000 2010
NAFTA ROW
29% 20%18,543 19,623
41,705
67,174
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2000 2010
NAFTA ROW
31% 23%
NAFTA has lost participation in global
PE demand and capacity
PE Demand(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PE Demand(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PE Capacity(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PE Capacity(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
In 2010, NAFTA represented ca. 20% of global PE demand and 23%
of global capacity. The region had net imports of ca. 2.8 MMT
+3.7% aagr (Global)
+0.2% aagr
+3.7% aagr (Global)
+0.6% aagr
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Overall polyethylene demand in NAFTA,
below 2004 levels
NAFTA PE Demand by Country(percentage)
NAFTA PE Demand by Country(percentage)
NAFTA PE Demand by Product(percentage)
NAFTA PE Demand by Product(percentage)
After plummeting in 2008, PE demand has not reached the levels of
2004. The US account for ca. 81% of demand. HDPE represents ca.
42%, LLDPE ca. 29% and LDPE ca. 18% of PE demand.
-
2,000
4,000 6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA Mexico Canada
-
2,000
4,000 6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
HDPE LLDPE LDPE
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LDPE demand in NA has declined
NAFTA LDPE Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
NAFTA LDPE Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
LDPE Demand in NAFTA in 2010 was 15% below 2000 demand. 75% of
regional demand in the U.S. and 15% in Mexico (+3 points over 2000). Film
applications are the most relevant market.
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2000 2005 2010
USA Mexico Canada
54%
2%
10%
15%
10%
9%
Film Blow Moulding
Injection Moulding Extrusion Coating
Other Extrusion Others
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Regional LDPE capacity has also declinedNAFTA LDPE Capaci ty by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Capaci ty by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA LDPE Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA LDPE production capacity in 2010 was more than 350KTA smaller
than in 2000. At the end of 2010, the top 4 companies accounted for close to
70% of installed capacity
CelaneseEVA
PerformancePolymers
4%
NOVAChemicals
3% PEMEX8%
ChevronPhillips
7%
Dow17%
DuPont10%
Equistar/LBI14%
ExxonMobil19%
Westlake18%
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA Mexico Canada
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LDPE demand in NAFTA wil l growth moderately and
U.S. capacity may consolidateNAFTA LDPE Demand 2010 -2025
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Demand 2010 -2025(thousand tons)
Regional aagr between 2010 and 2015 is forecasted at close to 2.5% .
Capacity addition in Mexico is expected to cause consolidation of non-
competitive capacity in the U.S.
NAFTA LDPE Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000 2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
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NAFTA will remain a next exporter of LDPENAFTA LDPE Net Trade Forecast
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Net Trade Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA LDPE Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
NAFTA LDPE Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
Exports and some consolidation in the U.S. will help to maintain operating
rates at relatively sound levels
-400
-200
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm Capacity
Consumption Operating Rate
T h o u
s a n d t o n s
-
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LLDPE demand in NA, on the way to recoveryNAFTA LLDPE Demand by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
NAFTA LLDPE Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
LLDPE demand, back to higher levels than in 2005. The U.S. account for
ca. 82% and Mexico for ca. 9% (increase of 3 points over 2000) of regional
consumption. Film, by far the most relevant market.
-
1,000
2,000
3,000 4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2000 2005 2010
USA Mexico Canada
74%
0.2%
10%
1% 6%
7%
2%
Film Blow Moulding Injection Moulding
Extrusion Coating Rotomoulding Other Extrusion
Others
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Since 2003, regional LLDPE capacity has experienced
only moderate increasesNAFTA LLDPE Capacity by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Capacity by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA LLDPE Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA LLDPE annualized production capacity in 2010 was about 700KTA
higher than in 2003. The top three producers accounted for three quarters
of regional capacity
Dow40%
NOVAChemicals
16%
PEMEX4%
ChevronPhillips
3%
Equistar/LBI8%
ExxonMobil20%
FormosaPlastics
3%
Westlake6%
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA Canada Mexico
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LLDPE demand in NAFTA growth will be solid while
only small to moderate capacity additions expectedNAFTA LLDPE Demand 2010 -2025
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Demand 2010 -2025(thousand tons)
Regional demand is forecasted to grow at an aagr of around 4.5% between
2010 and 2015. Capacity will grow at an average of less than 1%
NAFTA LLDPE Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Canada Mexico
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Medium to long term, the region as a whole may
become a net importer of LLDPENAFTA LLDPE Net Trade Forecast
(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Net Trade Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA LLDPE Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
NAFTA LLDPE Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
Regional demand growth will outpace capacity growth, resulting in
increasing imports in the U.S.
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm Capacity
Consumption Operating Rate
T h o u s a n d t o n s
-
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HDPE demand in NAFTA, starting to pick upNAFTA HDPE Demand by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
NAFTA HDPE Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
HDPE demand, at levels slightly above 2003. 82% of demand, in the U.S.
Mexico accounts for 11% (3% more than in 2000). Top two end-use markets
are blow molded and injected parts.
-
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
2000 2005 2010
USA Mexico Canada
19%
32%
24%
14%
2%8%
1%
Film Blow Moulding Injection Moulding
Pipe and Conduit Rotomoulding Other Extrusion
Others
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Market Review May of 2011
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Regional HDPE capacity, which had remained flat has
seen some consolidationNAFTA HDPE Capacity by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Capacity by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA HDPE Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA HDPE annualized production capacity estimated more than 80KTA
under 2000. The three top producers account for around 55% of annualized
capacity
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA Canada Mexico
Dow9%
Imperial Oil5%
NOVAChemicals
5%
PEMEX2%
ChevronPhillips
21%
Equistar/LBI18%
ExxonMobil16%
Formosa
Plastics8%
INEOS11%
Ticona0.3%
Total Petro-chemicals
5%
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HDPE demand in NAFTA will remain firm mid term while
capacity additions only in MexicoNAFTA HDPE Demand 2010 -2025
(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Demand 2010 -2025(thousand tons)
Demand growth between 2010 and 2015, at an average annual rate of close
to 4 percent. The most relevant capacity addition, in Mexico by Braskem
Idesa.
NAFTA HDPE Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
-
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Canada Mexico
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The U.S. may become a net importer of HDPENAFTA HDPE Net Trade Forecast
(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Net Trade Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA HDPE Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
NAFTA HDPE Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
Long term, the region will be a net importer of HDPE. Only significant
capacity addition, in Mexico by Braskem Idesa
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e
o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm Capacity
Consumption Operating Rate
T h
o u s a n d t o n s
-
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NAFTA’s global share of PP demand and capacity has
declinedPP Demand
(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PP Demand(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PP Capacity(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PP Capacity(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
In 2010, NAFTA represented ca. 15% of global PP demand and ca.
15% of global capacity. The region had net exports of ca. 330 KT
7,016 7,468
23,849
41,396
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2000 2010
NAFTA ROW
23% 15% 8,204 8,772
27,325
51,072
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2000 2010
NAFTA ROW
23% 15%
+4.7% aagr (Global)
+0.6% aagr
+5.4% aagr (Global)
+0.7% aagr
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PP demand in North America showing signs of
recoveryNAFTA PP Demand by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
NAFTA PP Demand by End Use 2010(percentage)
In 2009, PP demand the lowest in more than a decade. Recovery has started.
The U.S. represents 82% of demand and Mexico 13% (5% more than in 2000).
Injected parts account for ca. 55% of end uses. Fibres follow with around 21%
-
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
2000 2005 2010
USA Mexico Canada
11%
21%
2%55%
0.3% 11%
0.4%
Film Fibre Blow Moulding
Inject ion Moulding Extrus ion Coating Other Extrusion
Others
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Regional PP capacity has declined since 2007NAFTA PP Capacity by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Capacity by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA PP Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA PP production capacity fell around 580KTA between 2007 and
2007. The top four producers account for around 50% of capacity
Indelpro8%
Braskem America*
8%Sunoco*
3%
ConocoPhillips4%Dow
6%
ExxonMobil14%
Flint HillsResources
5%
FormosaPlastics
8%
INEOS9%
LyondellBas
ell14%
PhillipsSumika
4%
Pinnacle5%
Total Petro-chemicals
12%
* Acqui sition of Sunoc o by Braskem
-
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA Mexico Canada
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PP demand in NAFTA will have sustained growth and
some capacity expansions may comeNAFTA PP Demand 2010 -2025
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Demand 2010 -2025(thousand tons)
Between 2010 and 2015, PP demand forecasted to grow at an annual
average of around 4%. Capacity additions are possible but have not been
annouced
NAFTA PP Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
-
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
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Market Review May of 2011
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The region as a whole, set to become a
net importer of PPNAFTA PP Net Trade Forecast
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Net Trade Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA PP Supply -Demand Balance(percentage)
NAFTA PP Supply -Demand Balance(percentage)
Canada and Mexico will remain net exporters while the U.S. may transition
mid to long term. Regional demand will exceed firm capacity by 2014
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e
o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm Capacity
Consumption Operating Rate
T h
o u s a n d t o n s
-
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Market Review May of 2011
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NAFTA’s global share of PS demand and capacity has
declinedPS Demand
(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PS Demand(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PS Capacity(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
PS Capacity(2000 – 2010, thousand tons)
In 2010, NAFTA represented ca. 21% of global PS demand and ca.
19% of global capacity. The region had net exports of ca. 84 KT
2,748 2,100
7,487.31 8,112.57
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2000 2010
NAFTA ROW
27% 21% 3,465 2,809
9,457 11,701
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2000 2010
NAFTA ROW
27% 19%
+1.2% aagr (Global)
-2.1% aagr
-0% aagr (Global)
+-2.7% aagr
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Market Review May of 2011
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Regional PS capacity has fallen since 2004NAFTA PS Capaci ty by Country
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PS Capaci ty by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA PS Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA PS Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
Total Petrochemicals, Ineos Nova and Americas Styrenics, highest capacity
share by 2010. In 2011, the byout of Nova by Ineos from Ineos Nova and the
creation of Styrolution will create a new competitive landscape
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
USA Mexico Canada
AmericanPolymers
1%
AmericanPolystyrene
1%
AmericasStyrenics
22%
BASF6%
DartContainer
2%Dow3%
INEOSNOVA26%
Rank Group1%
Resirene5%
SABICInnovative
Plastics2%
Styron Corp4%
Total Petro-chemicals
27%
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Market Review May of 2011
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PS demand in NAFTA will remain basically flat.
Moderate capacity additions, possible mid termNAFTA PS Demand 2010 -2025
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PS Demand 2010 -2025(thousand tons)
Only Mexico expected to show modest demand growth. No capacity
additions have been announced.
NAFTA PS Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA PS Capacity Forecast(thousand tons)
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada
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Market Review May of 2011
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PS demand decline will force producers to
seek exportsNAFTA PS Net Trade Forecast
(thousand tons)
NAFTA PS Net Trade Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA PS Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
NAFTA PS Supply-Demand Balance(percentage)
Demand will fall slightly or remain flat in the best case. Further capacity
consolidation is expected short and mid term
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
-
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-1,500
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e
o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm CapacityConsumption Operating Rate
T h o u s a n d t o n s
-
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Feedstocks ReviewFeedstocks Review
Th th l i d t i N th A i h
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Market Review May of 2011
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The ethylene industry in North America has
experienced ups and downs over the years
NAFTA Ethylene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Ethylene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Ethylene End Uses 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Ethylene End Uses 2010(percentage)
Ethylene demand is showing recovery. The U.S. represents 81% of the total and
Mexico 4%. Polyethylene represents around 80% of ethylene concumption
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Mexico Canada USA
Firm Capacity Operating Rate
T h
o u s a n d t o n s
-
VAM1%
EDC13%
HDPE28%
Styrene5%
LDPE12%
LLDPE20%
EthyleneOxide11%
Others10%
Th i ti ll l ti l bi b f th l
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Market Review May of 2011
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There is sti ll a relatively big number of ethylene
producers in the region
NAFTA Ethylene Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Ethylene Capacity Share 2010(percentage)
BASF FINA3% Chevron
Phillips10%
Dow14%
DuPont2%
Eastman2%Equistar/LBI
13%
ExxonMobil12%
Flint HillsResources
2%
FormosaPlastics
5%
Other 3%
INEOS5%
NOVAChemicals
8%
NOVAChemicals/Dow
4%
Pemex4%
Shell7%
Westlake4%
WilliamsOlefins
2%
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Market Review May of 2011
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The outlook of ethylene may be about to change
NAFTA Ethylene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Ethylene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Ethylene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
NAFTA Ethylene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
Improved competitiveness of North American ethane (due to shale gas
production) has resulted in announcements of new capacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e
o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm CapacityConsumption Operating Rate
T h o u s a n d t o n s
-
?
-50
-
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
The histor of prop lene has been more stable than
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Market Review May of 2011
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The history of propylene has been more stable than
that of ethylene
NAFTA Propylene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Propylene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Propy lene End Uses 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Propy lene End Uses 2010(percentage)
In 2010, propylene demand exceeded the levels of 2002. Polypropylene is by far
the most important use of propylene
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Mexico Canada USA
Firm Capacity Operating Rate
T h
o u s a n d t o n s
-
Acrylonitrile11%
Acrylic acid6%
Isopropanol0.4%
PropyleneOxide12%
PP58%
Cumene3%
Others10%
No propylene producer has more than 9% of capactiy
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Market Review May of 2011
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No propylene producer has more than 9% of capactiy
share in the region
NAFTA Propylene Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Propylene Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
BASF FINA5%
Baton RougePropylene
4%BP5%
ChevronPhillips7%
Others11%
ConocoPhillips2%
Dow9%Enterprise
5%
Enterprise/ Atofina
8%
Equistar/LBI8%
ExxonMobil8%
FormosaPlastics
4%
Gulf Liquids2%
INEOS2%
Marathon3%
NOVAChemicals
2%
Pemex4%
Shell5%
Sunoco2%
Valero2%
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Market Review May of 2011
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The region will remain a small net exporter of propylene
NAFTA Propylene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Propylene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Propyelene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
NAFTA Propyelene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
Propylene demand will grow at an aagr of around 2% between 2010 and
2015.
-1,000
-800
-600
-400
-200
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm Capacity
Consumption Operating Rate
T
h o u s a n d t o n s
-
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Market Review May of 2011
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Styrene demand in NAFTA has fallen dramatically
NAFTA Styrene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Styrene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Styrene End Uses 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Styrene End Uses 2010(percentage)
2010 styrene demand in the region fell by around 1.4 MMT between 2000 and
2010. Polystyrene, the most important end-use has suffered from inter-polymer
competition
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
A v e r a g
e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Canada Mexico USA
Firm Capacity Operating Rate
T h o u s a n d t o n s
-
ABS7%
PS (Solid)55%SB Rubber
4.8%
EPS11%
Others16%
UPR6%
The numbers of producers is relatively small and top
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Market Review May of 2011
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The numbers of producers is relatively small and top
players are similar in size
NAFTA Styrene Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Styrene Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
AmericasStyrenics
16%
Cos-Mar 20%
INEOSNOVA29%
LyondellBasell21%
Pemex2%
Shell8%
Westlake4%
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Market Review May of 2011
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The outlook for styrene demand is not very promising
NAFTA Styrene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Styrene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Styrene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
NAFTA Styrene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
Styrene remand in the region will remain basically flat. The U.S. and
Canada will continue as net exporters, as will the region as a whole
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm Capacity
Consumption Operating Rate
T h o u s a n d t o n s
- -1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
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Market Review May of 2011
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Butadiene, struggling to bonce back
NAFTA Butadiene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Butadiene Demand by Country(thousand tons)
NAFTA Butadiene End Uses 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Butadiene End Uses 2010(percentage)
Butadiene demand in 2010 was still more than 500KT below 2000 levels. The top
two end uses (rubber), account for 60% of consumption
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
A v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Canada Mexico USA
FirmCapacity Operating Rate
T
h o u s a n d t o n s
-
ABS4%
ButadieneRubber
30%
SB Rubber 30%
Others10%
SB Latex13%
HMDA13%
A relatively small number of producers with one
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Market Review May of 2011
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A relatively small number of producers, with one
dominant player and four tier-two companies
NAFTA Styrene Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
NAFTA Styrene Capaci ty Share 2010(percentage)
Equistar/LBI15%
Exxon
Mobil12%
INEOS3%
Lanxess4%
Sabina15%
Shell16%
TexasPetro-
chemicals35%
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Market Review May of 2011
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Flat demand and some consolidation in BD’s future
NAFTA Butadiene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Butadiene SD Forecast(thousand tons)
NAFTA Butadiene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
NAFTA Butadiene Net Trade Forecast(percentage)
Despite expected consolidation, overcapacity will continue. However, the
region as a whole will remain a net importer.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2010 2015 2020 2025
A v e r a g e
o p e r a t i n g r a t e
Spec. Capacity Firm CapacityConsumption Operating Rate
T h
o u s a n d t o n s
- -500
-400
-300
-200
-100
-
100
200
2010 2015 2020 2025
USA Mexico Canada Total
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A few additinal words onfeedstocks
A few additinal words onfeedstocks
Are we currently really experiencing a
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Are we currently really experiencing a
high crude oil scenario?
A high crude scenario “ from the book”
• Declines in production from existing fields require the
development of high cost supply sources
• Relatively low level of spare OPEC capacity is available
• Steady demand growth is maintained for refined products as
crude remains the most cost effective energy resource, andefficiency gains fail to curtail demand growth
• Limited success in the development of alternative fuels
• Oil producers restrict access to reserves, limiting the develop-
ment of lower cost supplies. Political instability remains a con-
cern on security of supply. Policy changes have in the meanwhile
negligible impact on the use of oil
Ethylene prices in the United States will fall to set the
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Market Review May of 2011
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y e e p ces e U ed S a es a o se e
floor to regional prices
Global Ethylene PricesGlobal Ethylene Prices
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
C o n s t a n t 2 0 1 0 $ p e r t o n
United States Western Europe South East Asia
Ethylene derivative producers inthe United States wi ll experience aconsiderable cost advantage,similar to that seen in the early1990’s
Asian pr ices are more volati le asthe base price represents materialtraded in spot m arkets. Prices wil lpeak close to European prices andfall close to US prices in the trough.
Adjustment per iod of high crude oil pr ices
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Propylene prices forecasted to converge at high levels
Global Propylene PricesGlobal Propylene Prices
Competition of propylenederivatives in export m arkets hasmaintained a close tie betweenpropylene contract prices acrossthe Atlantic
The lower cost of shipping
propylene gives closerconvergence than ethylene. Themagnitude of the trans-Atlanticprice spread has rarely beenmore than $50 per ton
Propylene prices in the United
States will rise relative to Europe,exerting upwards pressure onprices in Europe and Asia
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
C o n s t a n
t 2 0 1 0 $ p e r t o n
United States Western Europe South East Asia
Adjustment per iod of high crude oil pr ices
Tight propylene markets will sustain propylene prices
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Market Review May of 2011
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g p py p py p
above ethylene prices in the United States
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
P / E R a t i o
P r i c e c e n t s p e r p o u n d
Propylene Ethylene P/E RatioXL: 00235\09.01.06.1\10\US\Sec5
Actual Forecast
USGC Propy lene Price Relative to Ethy leneUSGC Propy lene Price Relative to Ethy lene
Adjustment per iod of high crude oil pr ices
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Global Butadiene Prices(medium crude oil)
Global Butadiene Prices(medium crude oil)
Butadiene prices are expected to remain high
Butadiene is primarily sourced
from the mixed C4s stream insteam crackers as a co-productof ethylene production
The United States has historicallybeen short of m ixed C4s due tothe prevalence of l ight gas
feedstocks processed in crackers Due to the structural deficit,
mixed C4s in the United Statesare frequently valued at importparity from Western Europe,rather than any of the valuation
mechanisms associated withprocessing excess C4s withoutproducing butadiene .
Adjustment per iod of high crude oil pr ices
Intensification of inter-polymer competition will
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US Polymer Prices(medium crude oil)
US Polymer Prices(medium crude oil)
y
maintain prices of all polymers in a narrow band
Polystyrene wil l continue to
define the upper limit tocommodi ty polyolefin prices andPVC wi ll set the floor
Polypropylene prices are set torise relative to polyethylene,reflecting the increase in the
value of the respectivemonomers
Polypropylene prices willstrengthen c lose to parity w ithLDPE to set the ceiling topolyolefin prices
Polypropylene had defined thefloor to polyolefin prices formuch of the last two decades
0
20
40
60
80
100
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Polystyrene LDPE LLDPE HDPE PP PVC
XL: 00235\09.01.06.1\10\US\Sec9
Actual Forecast
C u r r e n t U S C e n t s p e r P o u n d
Adjustment per iod of high crude oil pr ices
Polyolefns profitability will fall
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below historic averages
(30)
(20)
(10)
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60
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
P e r c e n t
LDPE LLDPE HDPE (IM) PPXL: 0023 5\09.01.06.1\10\US\Sec6
Forecast Actual
US Leader Polyolefin Plant ROI(percent ROI)
US Leader Polyolefin Plant ROI(percent ROI)
Profitability for all polyolefins willfall below historic averages asproducers experience higherfeedstock cost pressure and thethreat of erosion of key exportmarkets by feedstock advantagedproducers in the Middle East
Polyethylene profitability wi llcontinue to follow an eight yearcycle, with the next peak forecastin 2015
Propylene wi ll command a largershare of the margin in the
propylene value chain andpolypropylene prices wi llincreasingly settle at a modeststeady margin over cash costs Adjustment per iod of high crude oil pr ices
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One closing word
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
• NOTE: For additional details on this information, please contact Nexant’sstaff or refer to the following periodical reports from the ChemSystems
series:
• Popyolefins Planning Service (POPS)
• Petroleum and Petrochemical Economics
www.chemsystems.com www.nexant.com
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May of 2011May of 2011
Raúl Arias Álvarez
Senior Consultant and Manager Latin America
Raúl Arias Álvarez
Senior Consultant and Manager Latin America
PolyolefinsMarket Review PolyolefinsMarket Review
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