@unocpar@UNOmahacpar#Nebraskabythenumbers
Nebraska’s Increasing Urbanization
Josie Schafer, Ph.D., Director
[email protected]/policy
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 proj. 2050 proj.
% o
f TO
TAL
POPU
LATI
ON
65% of Nebraska’s population will live in a metro by 2020
Metro counties (12) Nonmetro counties (81)
Decennial Census and 2018 Vintage Population Estimates, U.S. Census Bureau
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Core Metro (5) Outlying Metro (7) Micropolitan Core(9)
Rural, with urbancluster (22)
100% rural (50)
NU
MBE
R O
F PE
RSO
NS
Nebraska is losing about 2,000 people a year to other states Persons age 1 and older by area (no. of counties) 2017
Flow with other states Flow within NE
About 4,000 persons come to Nebraska from international
locations each year
Source:2013-2017, American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Domestic Net Migration International Net Migration
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey https://public.tableau.com/profile/unocpar#!/vizhome/State-Migration/Dashboard1
Net domestic migration for Nebraska is negative but net positive for international migration
Source: 2018 Vintage Population Estimates, U.S. Census BureauPrepared By : David Drozd
Since 2010, Nebraska’s population has increased about 5% but 66 counties have lost populationPercent change in population 2010 - 2018
Less than 5% increase5% or more increase Less than 5% decrease 5% or more decrease
Source: source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here
Net domestic migration of age 25+ by education 2010 to 2017
Sources: 2006-2010 to 2013-2017 American Community Surveys, U.S. Census Bureau,
984 826
-1,104
1,935
687
-1,102
1,873
376
-1,438
1,708
266
797495
-1,908
475256
-2,328
-83
902
-2,148
150
1,106
-1,356
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
High School or Less Some college/Associates Degree Bachelor's Degree or More
Net
Mig
ratio
n of
Age
25+
Pop
ulat
ion
2010
2010
2017
2017
2010 2017
377,452 people have a
bachelor’s degree or more
Source: source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here
21%5%
6%7%
8%9%
10%12%
16%19%
22%23%
24%26%26%
28%30%
32%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
All ages
85 +
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
34-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
under 5
1990 2017
21% of Nebraska’s population is minority, up from 8% in 1990Minority population as % of total population by age groups
Source: US Census Bureau, American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2013-2017
-51.2
-50.7
-48.0
-42.3
-41.8
-40.2
-39.7
-38.0
-37.5
-37.3
-36.9
-35.6
-35.4
-35.4
-35.2
5.0
11.1
20.0
Dakota
Colfax
Sioux
Loup
Dundy
Boyd
Fillmore
Hayes
Wheeler
Sheridan
Franklin
Blaine
Frontier
Garden
Grant
Lancaster
Arthur
Sarpy
Since 2000, in all but 3 counties there has been a decline in the number of White, non-Hispanic population under 20 Percent change in white population under 20, 2000- 2017
Sources: Tables PCT012 and PCT012I, 2000 Census (SF1); 2017 Vintage Population Estimates, all U.S. Census Bureau
Challenges and Opportunities of Urbanization
Mobility
Cost of Living
Education
Source: source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here can be removed if unnecessary source info here
64% of Nebraskans have some higher education and higher education leads to higher income
U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata and American Community Survey 5 year estimates, 2013-2017
9% 27% 34% 20% 10%
$24,346
$30,236
$34,912
$46,835
$60,825
$-
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Less than highschool graduate
High schoolgraduate
Some college orassociates degrees
Bachelor'sdegree
Graduate orprofessional degree
PERC
ENT
OF
POPU
LATI
ON
HIG
HES
T AT
TAIN
MEN
T
Educational attainment Median IncomeNationally, in 1973,16% of
jobs required a bachelor’s degree by
2020 35% will
30.6% or Greater Less than 20.0%20.0% - 30.5%
Only 7 counties in Nebraska have a concentration of persons with a Bachelor’s degree or more Percent of population 25 or older with a bachelor’s degree
Sales & related
Education
Health diagnosing & treating practitioner
Management
Business & financial
Transportation
Computer and mathematical
Production
Construction and extraction
Arts, entertainment, sports, & media
Life, physical, & social science
Law enforcement
Legal
Architecture & engineering
Installation, maintenance & repair
Fire & protective services
Farming, fishing & forestry
Health technicians
Community & social service
Healthcare support
Personal care and service Food preparation and service
related
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000
MED
IAN
PER
SON
AL IN
COM
E $’
S
NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED
Low NumberHigh Wage
High NumberLow Wage
Low NumberLow Wage
American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau 2017 – current numbers. Bureau of Labor Statistics for 2016 - 2018 used for projections.
High Number High Wage
Challenges and Opportunities of Urbanization
Mobility
Cost of Living
Education
METRO/MICRO COMPOSITEINDEX
GROCERY ITEMS
HOUSING UTILITIES TRANSPORTATION HEALTH CARE MISC. GOODS AND SERVICES
Nebraska 92.3 96.5 84.0 91.2 96.3 99.4 96.1
Lincoln NE Metro 92.4 95.9 77.7 90.3 92.4 105.1 102.5
Omaha-Council Bluffs NE-IA Metro
91.4 96.6 81.0 99.2 101.2 95.9 93.1
The Council for Community and Economic Research; Cost of Living Index 2019 Q2
Nebraska ranked 17th among states for cost of livingOmaha ranks 163 and Lincoln 169 of 297 ranked communities on the cost of living index 2019 Quarter 2
Note: According to the Bureau of Labor, typically housing is more expensive in urban areas; while transportation, and healthcare are more expensive in rural area
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
PRIC
E TO
INCO
ME
RATI
OOmaha has been experiencing an increase in the price of homes relative to incomesPrice to income ratio per quarter 2000 Q2 2019
Zillow.com, quarterly for Omaha MSA
U.S. average is 3.5 |
Median sales price has
increased over 30% since 2014
12%
11%
12%
9%
13%
10%
8%
8%
8%
7%
17%
15%
17%
12%
17%
Rural (50)
Rural with a urban cluster (22)
Micropolitan (9)
Suburban (7)
Metropolitan (5)
% in poverty % 65+ in poverty % under 18 in poverty
Rural counties have the highest percentages of persons 65+ in povertyPercent of population in poverty by county groups
3%
44% 39%
Worked Full-Time Worked Less Than Full-Time Did Not Work
Of the 12% of the population that is in poverty, 47% work full or part-timePercent of population 16 and over that are in poverty by employment status over the past 12 months
23% of those in poverty, 25 or older,
have less than a high school degree
2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau, S1701
$50,711
$45,702
$38,524 $35,080 $33,625 $33,622
$30,684 $27,455
WhiteMale
AsianMale
WhiteFemale
BlackMale
LatinoMale
AsianFemale
BlackFemale
LatinaFemale
90%
76%
69% 66% 66%
61%54%
Non-whites and females earn less than white menMedian earnings in the past 12 months by ethnicity and gender | earnings as a % of white men
Table B20017 with race series, 2013-2017 American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau
Challenges and Opportunities of Urbanization
Mobility
Cost of Living
Education
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap. 2017
276,134 persons commute outside of the county the work2017 number of persons who live in the county listed but commute to work outside the county
Source: US Census Bureau, OnTheMap. 2017
45% of commuters, commute out of 3 counties 2017 number of persons living in the cities listed and the top 10 places they commute
Greater mobility throughout the state can increase the workforce potential of each urban areaPopulation at each radius for 2017
See cpar.unomaha.edu/2020census for more information
Over $2,000 is lost for every person not
counted
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