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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
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NCoMM
NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR
Cotton | Sugar | Soybean | RM Seed | Castor seed | Turmeric | Jeera
OUTLOOK
OTHER DATA Sowing progress | Advance estimates | Kharif and rabi MSP
ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK’S
RM Seed | Jeera | Castor Seed | Turmeric
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NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR NCoMM
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• According to the latest rabi sowing progress report, as on 09th
November all India mustard acreage for 2018-19 is reported at 34.70
lakh hectares which is 6.34 per cent lower than 2017-18 acreage of 37.05
lakh hectares. Despite higher MSP of mustard, acreage has fallen due
to lower availability of water. However, acreage may increase in the
coming days depending upon the water availability.
• Mustard production target for 2018-19 is 84.86 lakh metric tonnes.
According to the fourth advance estimate of government, India
mustard production estimate for 2017-18 is 83.22 lakh metric tonnes
which is 5.11 percent higher than the 2016-17 production estimate of
79.17 lakh metric tonnes.
• Nafed is still holding around 5.89 lakh tonnes of mustard seed from
total procured quantity of 8.64lakh tonnes during the Rabi 2017.In the
coming days Nafed may offload mustard into the physical market as
prices has moved above the procurement price of Rs 4,000.
• The ongoing trade dispute between USA and China has created a lot of
uncertainty and making China to look out to other countries for their
requirements of oilmeals. China has allowed mustard meal imports
from India. However, strict quality parameters, export guidelines and
registration formalities have dampened exports in the near term.
• India’s mustard meal exports in the month of October 2018 were
25.234 thousand MT (provisional), lower by 77.92 per cent against
89.875 thousand MT in September 2018. Total exports of rapeseed
meal from April 2018 to October 2018 were 6.80 lakh MT which is 110.52
percent higher than 2017 exports of 3.23 lakh MT in the same time
period. Average FoB price of mustard meal in the month of October is
$229 which is higher than FoB price of August of $226.
• India’s rapeseed oil imports in the month of September 2018 is 11.996
thousand MT which is 51.05 percent lower than the import of August
2018 of 24.509 thousand MT. Total imports of rapeseed oil from
November 2017 to September 2018 were 2.40 lakh MT which is 5.88 per
cent lower than 2016-17 imports of 2.55 lakh MT in the same time
period. Imports of mustard oil decreased due to higher import duty
and higher crushing in India due to good demand of oilmeal.
• According to the latest USDA report, World rapeseed production
estimate for 2018-19 is 71.70 million metric tonnes which is 3.82 per cent
lower than 2017-18 estimate of 74.55 million MT.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-11-2018 12-11-2018 %Change
Jaipur 4260.4 4271.7 -0.26
Sriganganagar 4200 4200 0.00
Bulandshahr 3895 3895 0.00
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Lower sowing acreage Bullish
Higher production estimate Bearish
Higher stock with Nafed Bearish
China allowed mustard meal imports from India
Bullish
Lower exports of mustard meal Bearish
Lower imports of mustard oil Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,500
3,750
4,000
4,250
4,500
4,750
5,000
5,250
Jul-1
5
Oct
-15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-1
7
Oct
-17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8
Oct
-18
Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur
RM SEED
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• According to the trade sources, farmers in Gujarat are keen to
sow jeera crop in the coming days due to higher prices.
However, deficient rainfall in key producing region of Gujarat
like Saurashtra and Kutch may lower the acreage.
• According to the initial trade estimate, there may not be any
increase in the sowing area of jeera because of dry weather.
However, if the producing states receive good irrigation
facilities through dams then the sowing area could see an
increase.
• The overseas demand for Indian jeera is expected to increase as
the supply from other origins like Turkey and Syria are limited
and of poor quality due to crop damage. Although Indian jeera
is priced higher in the global market, it is drawing more buyers
because of superior quality.
• According to the market estimates, India has already exported
around 1.25 lakh tonnes of jeera so far this year and there is a
possibility of it touching a record 1.75 lakh tonnes by the end of
this fiscal year. The highest export volume was recorded at 1.55
lakh tonnes in 2014.
• Jeera arrivals in the domestic mandis this year during July-
October were higher as compare to last year. The high arrivals
can be attributed to higher prices this season compared with
last season, coupled with higher production during last year.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, Cumin production in India for 2017-18 is estimated at 5 lakh tonnes as against 4.95 lakh tonnes in 2016-17. According to the 4th advance estimate for Gujarat state,2017-18 production is estimated at 2.88 lakh tonnes, up by 45.5 per cent primarily on higher acreage and favourable climate. However, this year deficient rainfall in jeera producing areas may support the market in the long run.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-11-2018 12-11-2018 %Change
Unjha 20471.5 20430 0.20
Patan 18500 18750 -1.33
Jodhpur 21012.5 21525 -2.38
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Farmers intention to sow jeera Bearish
Lack of rainfall in jeera producing region Bullish
Lower supply from Syria and Turkey Bullish
Higher export demand Bullish
Higher arrivals in the mandis Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
13,000.00
15,000.00
17,000.00
19,000.00
21,000.00
May
-16
Jul-1
6
Oct
-16
De
c-16
Mar
-17
May
-17
Au
g-1
7
Oct
-17
De
c-17
Mar
-18
May
-18
Au
g-1
8
Oct
-18
Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha
JEERA
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Castor spot and future prices have remained firm due to lower crop
prospectus due to dry weather conditions in Castor growing regions of
Gujarat and Rajasthan.
• As per traders, Castor seed prices are quoting at Rs 5,392 per quintal at
Deesa and are expected to trade higher towards Rs 5,800 in the coming
days. Dry weather amidst poor crop in major growing belts of Gujarat
and Rajasthan are supporting prices in the spot market.
• Castor demand is very strong and stockists, traders and farmers having
stocks with them are selling gradually at the higher rates.
• Not very much stock left as production was lower in 2017-18 and
outlook is bleak for 2018-19 as key producing centers in Gujarat have
received poor rainfall this monsoon season.
• All India Castor seed sowing as on 20th September 2018 was 8.59 lakh
hectares which is up by 5.15 per cent from last year corresponding
period area of 8.78 lakh hectares and 25% down by normal area of
corresponding period area of 8.66 lakh hectares. Lower area is
reported from the states of Telangana and Gujarat while higher acreage
is only reported from Andhra Pradesh.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture 1st Advance Estimates for 2018-19,
Castor seed production in India is estimated at 15.17 lakh tonnes as
compared to 15.68 lakh tonnes in 2017-18. The all India Castor seed
production target for 2018-19 was 18.31 lakh tonnes.
• The final Kharif acreage under Castor in Gujarat declined to 5.33 lakh
hectares as compared to 5.95 lakh hectares last year. The normal Kharif
Castor acreage in Gujarat is 6.48 lakh hectares.
• Gujarat Agriculture Department in its first advance estimates for 2018-
19 estimated Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh
tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes.
• As per the Solvent Extractors Association of India, Castor oil exports
declined to 38,744 tonnes in September 2018. Sluggish import demand
from China the world's largest buyer of castor oil weighed on the
overall exports from India. Japan, European countries and United
States are the other prominent buyers of Castor oil from India.
• During April-September India exported 278,426 tonnes of castor oil
compared with 333,598 tonnes a year ago. In 2017-18 (April-March),
India's total exports were pegged at 639,390 tonnes as against 556,778
tonnes the previous year.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-11-2018 05-11-2018 %Change
Deesa 5851 5600 4.66
Patan 5375 5225 2.87
Jodhpur 5300 5150 2.91
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Strong domestic demand in spot markets against tight supplies
Bullish
Lower crop estimates due to dry weather conditions
Bullish
Not much stock left in markets as production was lower in 2017-18
Bullish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Gujarat Agriculture Department estimates 2018-19 Castor crop to decline more than 20 per cent to 11.73 lakh tonnes versus 14.84 lakh tonnes
Bullish
During April-September India exported 278,426 tonnes of castor oil as against 333,598 tonnes a year ago
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
3,600.00
3,900.00
4,200.00
4,500.00
4,800.00
5,100.00
5,400.00
Castor Deesa
CASTOR
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Fundamental Report
• Turmeric prices in spot and futures recovered on festive demand
mostly coming from domestic buyers. However, the export demand
has not increased as per market expectation.
• According to farmers and traders this year production in Maharashtra
can be less than last year. Deficit rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka
affected Turmeric standing crop. Lower rainfall reported in
Maharashtra Marathwada turmeric growing regions like Hingoli, Sangli,
Nanded, Basmat affect Turmeric standing crop.
• Local traders are likely to become active in coming days at lower price
levels as festive demand already started and cold storage stocks
reported lower.
• As per trade information, currently the all India Turmeric stocks are
reported around 23 - 24 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to last
year 31 – 33 lakh bags, down by around 27 per cent.
• Turmeric stocks in Nizamabad (both old and new crop) were estimated
around 3.80 lakh bags (1 bag = 70 kgs) as compared to around 2.70 lakh
bags same period last year. Currently, stocks reported higher as
demand (powder manufactures) shifted to Maharashtra, Duggirala and
Kadapa market due to lower prices.
• In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric final sowing reported 18,737 hectares as
compared to 14,841 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 104%
sowing completed from season normal. Among major turmeric
growing districts, Visakhapatnam has reported 5,657 hectares in
acreage compared to last year’s 3,524 hectares, Guntur has reported
4,643 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s 4,511 hectares, YSR
Kadapa has reported 3,211 hectares in acreage compared to last year’s
2,910 hectares and Krishna has reported 2,126 hectares in acreage
compared to last year’s 1,778 hectares.
• In Telangana, final Turmeric sowing reported at 47,888 hectares as
compared to 44,956 hectares in the corresponding period last year.
Current sowing stands at 87 per cent of normal for the season. Normal
area reported 54,878 hectares.
• As per the Ministry of Agriculture, All India Turmeric production in 2017-
18 is estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes
estimated in 2016-17.
Mandi Price in Rs/ Quintal
12-11-2018 05-11-2018 %Change
Nizamabad 7145 7061 1.18
Sangli 7700 7400 4.05
Erode 7600 7600 0.00
FUNDAMENTAL SUMMARY
Price Drivers Impact
Firm domestic demand in most of the spot markets across the country
Bullish
Expectation of lower production from Maharashtra and Karnataka due to deficient rainfall
Bullish
Lower stock availability in spot markets
Bullish
Higher Turmeric acreage in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana
Bearish
Profit booking at higher levels Bearish
Turmeric production in 2017-18 estimated at 11.63 lakh tonnes as against 10.56 lakh tonnes in 2016-17
Bearish
Based on Primary & Secondary Sources
5,500.00
6,000.00
6,500.00
7,000.00
7,500.00
8,000.00
8,500.00
Turmeric Nizamabad
TURMERIC
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
• Oilseeds market prices show
little change as MP caps payout
under Bhawantar
• India's sugar exports hit by
falling prices; govt offers
transport subsidy
• Government to procure 44 lakh
tonne of oilseeds and pulses
under the PM- AAASHA scheme
• India's y-o-y HPS groundnut
exports to decline in 2018-19,
says SEA
• Castorseed prices hit sweet spot
on low stock, bleak crop outlook
• Basmati paddy price surges 25%
on expectation of output decline
• US-China trade war: Beijing to
resume Oil meal imports from
New Delhi after 5 years
• Oil meals export decline in
October
To purchase the India Commodity
Year Book 2018, contact us at
Official Production Estimates
Fourth advance estimates 2017-18 &
previous years’ estimates: Fourth
Advance Estimates 2017-18
MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.)
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
KHARIF **NEW**
Paddy Common 1550 1750
paddy grade A 1590 1770
Jowar Hybrid 1700 2430
Jowar Maldandi 1725 2450
Bajra 1425 1950
Ragi 1900 2897
Maize 1425 1700
Tur/Arhar 5450 5675
Moong 5575 6975
Urad 5400 5600
Groundnut 4450 4890
Sunflower seed 4100 5388
Soyabean black 3050 3399
Sesamum 5300 6249
Nigerseed 4050 5877
Cotton (Medium Staple) 4020 5150
Cotton (Long Staple) 4320 5450
RABI
Commodity 2017-18 2018-19
Wheat 1735 1840
Barley 1410 1440
Gram 4400 4620
Masur (Lentil) 4250 4475
Rapeseed/Mustard 4000 4200
Safflower 4100 4945
*includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal
# includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago
12-Nov-18 29-Oct-18 13-Oct-18 13-Nov-17
Soybean 3364 3194 3295 2760
RM seed 4260.4 4285.5 4261.1 3994.4
Turmeric 7000 7100 7100 7300
Cotton 12921.8 13122.7 13217.1 10545.6
Jeera 12200 10800 10500 9500
Castor 20471.5 19600 19850 18853.6
PRICE TRACKER
Link for commodity-wise and
market-wise prices and arrivals:
http://agmarknet.gov.in/PriceAndArriv
als/CommodityWiseDailyReport2.aspx
THE WEEK THAT WAS
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
0
Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
yyy
link
NCoMM QUIZ PREVIOUS WEEK’S ANSWERS
THESE PEOPLE ANSWERED CORRECTLY!
1. Progressive procurement of rice as on 26-10-2018 is lower than the corresponding period last year.
FALSE
2. Guarseed prices have risen sharply this month due to high domestic demand and lower output expectation.
TRUE
TRUE
3. ISMA has pegged India's 2018-19 sugar production lower than last year.
Full Name Employee ID Full Name
Employee ID
1 Rakesh Kumar 1357 19 Aniketsandage 18240
2 Pawan Joshi 18275 20 Om singh
3 Kuldip Singh 1168 21 Rakesh prajapati 3608
4 Somarouthu Narendra 2037 22 Dattatray manwar 13330
5 PAWAN KUMAR 3699 23 Amol Dilip Nikam 15286
6 PRATIMA GOSWAMI 3836 24 Nikhil Thakur 2488
7 AJENDRA SINGH CHAUHAN
3785 25 Prashant Kumar Ojha
3598
8 Taufique khan 3068 26 Sumit Chahal ---
9 Rajaram Bhilare 2952 27 Nitin Laxman Tambe 18704
10 SHANMUKHA K R 3503 28 Babloo Kumar 15836
11 Rakesh Kumar Raut 3659 29 Manish Kumar Rohilla 2973
12 Srinivasu S 2310 30 Arun Kumar 17183
13 Anil kumar sharma 13108 31 Vinod Maurya 17516
14 Satyanarayan das bairagi 14582 32 Ranjit Pradhan 3205
15 Rajneesh samadhiya
3711 33 Nagina Chander Gowda
3423
16 Munesh kumar sharma
3777 34 Ansari Saddam Hussain
3753
17 V krishna --- 35 ANJALI 2359
18 shonak gupta 3770
LUCKY WINNER!
Anil Kumar Sharma
T&C, Bikaner
CONGRATULATIONS!
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Date: 13/11/2018 NCoMM
NCML Commodity Market Monitor
Advisory Team
Nalin Rawal Head: CWIG [email protected]
Sreedhar Nandam Vice President: SCM [email protected]
Research Team
Suresh Solanki Assistant Manager: TCIG [email protected]
Rajiv Kumar Associate: TCIG [email protected]
Akash Jaiswal Research Analyst: TCIG [email protected]
Disclaimer:
This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the
addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any
third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised
reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others.
No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from
errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based
on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which
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© National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017
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