Nature of Crises
• An emotionally stressful event or situation involving an impending, abrupt, and decisive change
• Where there is a natural tendency to view a crisis as bad, crises are more precisely defined as situations that can turn out bad
• Law enforcement typically face one of three types of crises:♦ Natural Disasters - fires, floods, earthquakes, etc♦ Mechanical - railroad derailments, airplane crashes,
hazmat spills, etc♦ Adversarial - snipers, barricaded suspects, riots,
hostage situations, etc
What is a Crisis?14
• Always entail Risk♦ Personal - physical or emotional harm, career hardships♦ Risk to Others - peril to subordinates or bystanders♦ Organizational - loss of equipment, assets or prestige
• Atmosphere of Uncertainty♦ Information will be incomplete, confusing, ambiguous,
unreliable and sometimes even conflicting
• Time Sensitive♦ May be time competitive
• Potential Severe Consequences
• Human Factor is always present and influential
Five Distinct Factors Present in Every Crisis?13
• Countless factors impinge on tactical situations, thus every commander is forced to accept some degree of risk♦ Commanders attempt to reduce risk by seeking better,
more timely, and more accurate information
• Since the time that is necessary to approach certainty is never available in tactical operations, the organization which is attempting to intervene must react in one of two ways:♦ Either increase its information gathering and
processing capability Or operate on the basis of less information
Accepting Risk12
• Deterministic Approach♦ A centralized approach which advocates remedies
such as adding more personnel, another headquarters, faster computers, and the like
♦ Operational skills are viewed as a science where results are highly predictable
Dealing with Uncertainty11
• Probabilistic Approach♦ A decentralized approach which requires the
acceptance of more uncertainty and ambiguity
♦ Operational skills are viewed as more of an art
Dealing with Uncertainty10
• Modern Approach (Moderate Approach)♦ Supports a position somewhere between the
two extremes
♦ Employs a professionally trained staff to gather and analyze data and make informed recommendations
Dealing with Uncertainty9
• Tactical responses are always human activities♦ Any attempt at removing or ignoring the human
dimension is courting disaster
• Many factors will influence the human dimension, such as:♦ Training, education, experience, maturity, emotion,
prejudice, discipline, fatigue, temperament, etc♦ These factors are always present,
always interact with one another,and always affect the outcome
The Human Dimension8
• Crisis Driven• Task Oriented• Self-Evolving• Time Sensitive• Composite• Temporary
Organization
Emergency
EMON
Emerging Multi-Organizational Networks (EMONs)
7
• Misplaced Confidence• Ignored or Unrecognized
Influences• Unprepared for Command
♦ Failure to Learn♦ Failure to Anticipate♦ Failure to Adapt
Courting Disaster6
• “It can’t happen here!”
• “It won’t happen to me!”
• “The odds are in our favor.”
• “We can handle it.”
Hope is a great companion, but a poor planner
Misplaced Confidence5
Branch Davidians
• Neglecting or ignoringprevious lessons
• Creeping Missions &Drifting Standards
“Learn from the mistakes of others. You’ll never live long enough to make them all yourself”!
Failure to Learn4
Failure to Learn• Tactics practiced as a “skill set”
rather than an intuitive application of “tried and true” principles
• Failure to objectively critique
“We confuse good luck and good tactics.”
3
• Lack of Adequate Planning
• Lack of Timely Preparation
• Incremental Decision Making
1992 Los Angeles Riots
Failure to Anticipate2
Questions?
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