Slide1 ©2016NASFAA
National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators
©2016NASFAA
The following is a presentation prepared for NASFAA’s
2016 National Conference in Washington, DCJuly 10 – 13, 2016
Session200
Slide2 ©2016NASFAA
National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators
©2016NASFAA
Restructuring Institutional Financial Aid
Programs RevisitedJonathan Jacobs, Director of Enrollment
Management Research
Jim Brooks, Assistant Vice President, Financial Aid and Scholarships
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University of Oregon
• Foundedin1876• LocatedinEugene,Oregon• WASFAAregion• Public,4year• 90%fulltimestudentsandtraditionallyagedundergraduatepopulation
• MemberoftheAAU• MemberofthePAC-12
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University of Oregon
• CostofAttendance(2016-2017):
– Residents:$25,815Ø Tuition/Fees:$10,761
– Non-Residents:$49,392Ø Tuition/Fees:$33,441
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Financial Aid Snapshot
• Award$250,000,000infinancialaid
• 73%ofundergraduatesreceiveaid
• 25%ofadmittedundergraduatesareFederalPellGranteligible– 38%Oregonian
• 59%ofgraduatingclassreceivedinstitutionalaid
• 51%ofgraduatingclasshavestudentdebt
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Agenda
• InstitutionalGoals• Financialaidstrategy• Briefrecapofinstitutionalaidprograms• Wherewearetoday• Howwegothere– Dataanalysis• Results• Whatwe’velearned
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Accesswithoutqualityisahollowpromise;Qualitywithoutaccessisnotapublicuniversity.
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Institutional Goals
• Improvequality offreshmanclassasdefinedbyGPA&standardizedtestscores
• Increasediversity offreshmanclassasdefinedbyethnicity&socialeconomicstatus
• Increaseinternational presenceoftheUniversityofOregon
• KeepUOaffordable
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Financial Aid Strategy
v Merit-BasedFinancialAid
v Need-BasedFinancialAid
• Mustaligntorecruitmentandenrollmentgoals
• Mustbepresentedineasilyunderstoodmannertostudentsandparents
• Mustbecoordinatedandappliedstrategically
• Mustbewidelypublished
• Requiresoutstandingstudentservice
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• Merit-BasedFinancialAid
– Mustbebasedonhighstandards
– Designedtoincreasequalityatalllevelsin“pipeline”or“funnel”
– Requirescontinualoutcomeassessment
– KeyRecruitmentPoint:Ø Parents,students,highschoolcontactsshouldhaveclear
understandingofmerit-basedparametersearlyinstudentselectionprocess
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Need Based Aid Program
• PathwayOregon– Redesignedtomeetenrollmentgoals– Clear,concisecriteria– Increaseinstudentsanddollarsawarded– DesignedforOregonResidents
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• AddressesneedoflowestincomeOregonfamilies
• Buildsonexistingfederalprogram(Pell)
• Providesfullcostoftuition&feestoparticipants
• Beginsrecruitmentprocessattheearlyhighschoollevel
• Deliversmessageof“hope”tolowincomepopulation
• Buildsonmentoringstructureforsuccessalreadyinplace
• Providesfundingfordiversegroupofstudents
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• DesiredOutcome:
– Easytounderstand,cleareligibilitycriteria
– IncreaseSESdiversity
– Increaseretention
– Increasegraduationrates
– Shortentimetograduation
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Merit Based Aid Programs
• Scholarshipprogramswerenotnew• Effectivenessneverassessed• Transparency• Concernsaboutaffordability
– Lowincome,middleincome• Balanceneed-basedandmerit-basedaid• Increaseresidentstudentyield• Concernsaboutstudentdebtload
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DesiredOutcome:
– Easytounderstand,cleareligibilitycriteria
– Highstandards
– Increasequality
– Increaseretention
– Increasegraduationrates
– Shortentimetograduation
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• SummitScholarship:– $6,000*residents/$9,000*non-residents
Ø Requires3.80GPA,1190SAT/26ACT
• ApexScholarship:– $3,000residents/$4,000non-residents
Ø Requires3.60GPA,1150SAT/25ACT
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Research Questions
1. Whateffectdoesadditionalmeritaidhaveontheprobabilityofenrollment?
2. Howdowemodeltheeffectofrestructuredaidonanenteringclass?
3. Howcanwecomparedifferentaidpackagesdynamicallyandinstantly?
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1. Effect of AidInstitution Aid (an independent variable) influences the decision to attend college (the target variable).
• Population: Freshman Admits, fall 2011
• Target Variable: BINARY: Student enrolls in the fall
• Model Methodologies:
NeuralNetwork
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1. Effect of Aid
Whatelsedidwecontrolfor?• IndependentVariables
– TOTALGRANTAID(minusfederal/state)– HighSchoolGPA– SATorconvertedACT– AdmissiontoHonor’sCollege– Residency– Dayapplicationwassubmitted– Firstgeneration– Underrepresentedrace/ethnicity– Significantinteractions
Max-RescaledR-square .25
C-statistic .77
Hosmer andLemeshowGoodness-of-FitTest
.57
Thiscreatesthemodel.Wetrustthemodeltotellustheimpactofaid.
Themodelwillnotchange.
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2. Model the Effect of Changing Aid
StudentadmissionsandfinancialaiddataFall2011-2014
Studentadmissionsandfinancialaiddata
Fall2014
START
RunRegressionAnalysistoCreateaPredictiveModel.
MODELWILLNOTCHANGE
MODEL
SCORE
Determineprobabilityeachstudentwillenrollbasedonthemodel
createdabove.AIDIMPACTSTHEPROBABILITY
Wenowknowtheimpactofaid.
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2. Model the Effect of Changing AidThemodelgivesaprobabilitybasedonthemetrics.Changingametricchangestheprobabilityofenrollment.
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%
HighSchoolGPASATorconvertedACTAdmissiontoHonor’sCollegeResidencyDayapplicationwassubmittedFirstgenerationUnderrepresentedrace/ethnicity
TOTALGRANTAID(minusfederal/state)
KEEPTHESECONSTANT
CHANGEAID
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2. Model the Effect of Changing Aid
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
15.6% 12.6% 13.1% 13.6% 14.2% 14.7% 15.1% 15.6% 16.1% 16.7% 17.7% 19.4% 22.0% 26.0%
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
22.0% 17.3% 19.4% 22.0% 25.1% 28.8% 33.0% 37.5% 42.1% 46.7% 51.0% 54.9% 58.6% 62.2%
BobApple,Resident,GPA3.91,SAT1110
ChrisCoe,Nonresident,GPA3.86SAT1070
Orig $0 $1K $2K $3K $4K $5K $6K $7K $8K $9K $10K $11K $12K
20.8% 20.8% 23.9% 27.7% 32.2% 37.4% 43.1% 49.1% 54.9% 60.2% 65.0% 69.3% 73.1% 76.6%
KerryOki,Nonresident,GPA3.27,SAT990
Usethistechniquetoscoreeverysinglestudent.Herearethreeof16,000.
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3. Compare Aid Packages Instantly
Customizewhogetsaidandhow
muchAdmitsfallintotherightbucketbasedonGPA/Testcuts
Themodelcalculatesthenewyieldbasedontheproposedaward
Verifythattheprogramfits
budgetrequirements
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Elasticity of Demand
33.9%37.2%
44.4%
$0 $2,000 $5,000
ProbabilityofEnrollmentatDifferentLevelsofAidResidents,3.8HSGPAorhigher,1200SATorhigher
3.3pointincreasetoyield.10%persuadedbyaid90%alreadycoming
10.5pointincreasetoyield.30%persuadedbyaid70%alreadycoming
Aid Admit TotalEnroll Cost
CostPerGainedStudent
0 100 34 $0 NA
$2,000 100 37(+3) $74K $25K
$5,000 100 44(+10) $220K $22K
Ifthemodeliscorrect,a$1Mprogramwouldyield5morestudentsatthehigheraidamount.
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AdditionalCostofNewFinancialAidProgram +$179K(+3.2%)
Increase toTotalResidentAwards 50%($1.8Mto$2.7M)
Additional“Summit” StudentsEnrolled(3.80HS GPA,1190SAT)(Includesnonresident)
+129(+24%)
EnrollmentofstudentswithLessThana 3.00HighSchoolGPA -97 (-77%)
AverageHighSchoolGPA 3.62(+0.05pointimprovementovermodelusingactualawards)
AverageSAT 1123(+34point improvementovermodelusingactualawards)
Themodelshowsanetincreaseof106admitsenrollingduetoreallocatingandincreasingaid.Source:UOEnrollmentManagementResearch,JonathanJacobs
ModeledBenefitsoftheNewMeritAwardAssumingthesame2011AdmitPool
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Yield – Highly Prepared Residents
42%40% 41%
39% 37%
33%
37%40%
45%
37%
45%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SummitResidentYield–3.8HSGPA/1190SAT/ACT
2010through2012=36%yield2013through2015=42%yield
NegativepublicityaroundincidentinvolvingUO
basketball.
ResidentSummitAward:Themodelpredictedanincreasefrom37%to45%(modeled2011population).Bullseye.
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Yield – Summit-Level Nonresidents
14%15% 15% 15%
12%10% 9% 9% 10% 11% 11%
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SummitNonresidentYield–3.8HSGPA/1190SAT/ACT
2010through2012=9.5%yield2013through2015=10.4%yield
Broadenedout-of-staterecruitmenteffortsinresponsetorecession.
NonresidentSummitAward:Themodelpredictedanincreasefrom8.6%to11.1%(modeled2011population).Actualwaslowerthananticipated.
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Yield - Apex
16% 16%18% 17%
11%13%
11% 11% 12% 11%13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ApexNonresidentYield–3.6HSGPA/1150SAT/ACT 2010through2012=11.6%yield2013through2015=12.3%yield
51%54%
49% 48%51%
41%
49%44%
49% 48%51%
20%25%30%35%40%45%50%55%60%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
ApexResidentYield–3.6HSGPA/1150SAT/ACT 2010through2012=45%yield2013through2015=49%yield
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Pathway Oregon Headcount
415450
395
523 542
703
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Fall2010 Fall2011 Fall2012 Fall2013 Fall2014 Fall2015
Fall2013wasthefirstyearofthePathwayOregon redesign.FourthweekPathwayOregon enrollmentmaybebelowfinalprogramenrollmentforthecohortduetopendingverificationof
Pelleligibility.UOOfficeofEnrollmentManagement,November30,2015
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$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
DistributionofMeritAwardtoResidentFreshmenIncludesDean,DeanAccess,Summit,andApex,2012vs2013
Resident2012 Resident2013
Distribution of Awards
Percentileofscholarshipamountreceived
Igotnothing…
Fullride!
Amou
ntofScholarshipAidReceived
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Distribution of Merit Awards
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
DistributionofMeritAwardtoResidentFreshmenIncludesDean,DeanAccess,Summit,andApex,2012vs2013
Resident2012 Resident2013
$1,200à $3,000DeantoApex
$2,000à $5,000DeantoSummit
Total2012Dean’sScholarships:$1.41MTotal2013Summit/Apex:$2.69M
Amou
ntofScholarshipAidReceived
Percentileofscholarshipamountreceived
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Distribution of Merit Awards
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
DistributionofMeritAwardtoNonresidentFreshmenIncludesDean,DeanAccess,Summit,andApex,2012vs2013
Nonresident2012 Nonresident2013
$5,000à $4,000DeantoApex
$6,000à $8,000DeantoSummit
Total2012Dean’sScholarships:$3.17MTotal2013Summit/Apex:$2.73M
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Distribution of Pathway Awards
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
DistributionofPathwayAwardtoResidentFreshmen2012vs2013
Resident2012 Resident2013
20%Pway Grant
Total2012FreshmanPathway:$0.64MTotal2013FreshmanPathway:$1.16M
37%PellEligible
26%PathwayOregon
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Distribution of All Awards
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%
DistributionofGrant/ScholarshipAwardtoResidentFreshmenIncludesFederal,State,andInstitutionAid,2012vs2013
Resident2012 Resident2013
$1,500à $3,000ApexAward
$3,500à $5,600SummitAward
$6,400à $8,800Merit+Need
TotalG
rants/Scho
larships
TotalScholarshipstoResidentFreshmen:2012:$11.4M2013:$13.9M
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Aid Distribution – Pell Eligible
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
DistributionofGrant/ScholarshipAwardtoResidentFreshmenProportionPell-EligibleWithinEachDistributionPoint,2013
ProportionPellEligible Resident2013
37%ofthenewresidentfreshmen(theshadedarea)arePelleligible.
TotalG
rants/Scho
larships
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Aid Distribution – Average Loan
100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%$0
$1,200
$2,400
$3,600
$4,800
$6,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
DistributionofGrant/ScholarshipAwardtoResidentFreshmenAverageFirstYearBorrowingWithinEachDistributionPoint,2013
AverageLoanperStudent GrantAidtoResidents
Averageincludesstudentswhoborrowzerodollars(themetricisaverageloansperstudent– NOTaverageloansperborrower).Excludesplusloans.Loanamountisbasedondisbursedloans.
TotalG
rants/Scho
larships
TotalFirstYearB
orrowing
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$13,772$14,699
$15,403 $15,362$14,179
$15,128
$19,831$21,081 $21,752
$23,050$23,957 $24,405
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Net Cost of AttendanceNew Residents who Receive Aid, Fall 2009 to Fall 2014
Net Cost Total Cost
In fall 2013 additional need and merit aid were targeted to resident students.Source: University of Oregon IPEDS submission – net price
UO Office of Enrollment Management, November 30, 2015
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Summary
• Experiencedgrowthinhigherabilitystudents• GrowthinPell-eligiblestudentsupportprogram
• Continuallyreviewthesuccessoftheprograms
• Tweakprogramsasnecessarytoaccomplishgoals
• Benefitsofateamapproach
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Questions?
• JimBrooks • JonathanJacobs
Director,EnrollmentManagementResearch
(541)[email protected]
AssistantVicePresidentforEnrollmentManagementandDirectorofFinancialAid&Scholarships
(541)[email protected]
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